Diepte-analyse

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Diepte-analyse

  1. 1. Russian Stock Market: Tested by Crisis E. Ellinski, MICEX Vice-President
  2. 2. The Russian stock market and the world financial crisis S&P upgrades Russia’s rating to investment-grade level Liberalization of the market for Gazprom shares Maximum drop in the Chinese stock market over the last 10 years Bear Stearns announces losses on bonds backed by subprime mortgage US largest banks and investment companies (in particular, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch ) announce record-high losses D . Medvedev wins presidential election Bear Stearns: shortage of liquidity , appeal to Federal Reserv e for urgent financing For the first time since 2001 , Federal Reserv e urgently cuts base interest rate Fall of stocks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ; US Treasury and Federal Reserv e promise them assistance Liquidity crisis in the world market , ECB , Federal Reserv e and Asian CBs increase volumes of refinancing
  3. 3. Behavior of world stock market indices (29 December 2006 =100%) * — January – July . Changes are calculated based on values of indices in USD . Indices of developed markets and BRIC countries 2006 2007 2008* DJIA ( USA ) 16,3% 6,4% -14,2% FTSE 100 ( Great Britain ) 26,1% 5,2% -16,2% DAX 30 ( Germany ) 36,0% 36,4% -14,9% Nikkei 225 ( Japan ) 5,9% -6,2% -8,7% BOVESPA ( Brazil ) 44,6% 72,9% 5,5% MICEX Index ( Russia ) 82,9% 20,1% -17,4% SENSEX ( India ) 49,3% 65,2% -34,4% SSEC ( China ) 138,3% 110,1% -43,6% H SI ( Hong Kong ) 33,8% 38,9% -18,3%
  4. 4. Corporate bonds market Bonds yield in the secondary market , % (at the end of six months ) Issuer’s rating 2 nd half of 2006 1 st half of 2007 2 nd half of 2007 1 st half of 2008 BBB- and up 6,7 6,7 7,4 7,9 ВВ- — ВВ+ 8,2 7,7 9,3 9,5 B+ and below 9,5 9,3 11,6 11,6 Without rating 10,8 10,8 12,0 12,9
  5. 5. Market for initial placements of stocks and bonds LSE 0,1 SPO 2,7 Akron 12.08 MICEX , RTS 24,1 SPO 295,2 Razgulyai Group 22.07 RTS 11,1 SPO 491,5 Open Investments 6.06 MICEX , RTS , LSE 8,1 SPO 82,4 Cherkizovo Group 20.05 LSE 2,1 SPO 190,9 X5 Retail Group 7.05 LSE 29,0 IPO 449,4 GlobalTrans Investment Plc 30.04 MICEX , RTS , LSE 13,8 SPO 489,5 Magnit 16.04 MICEX , RTS 33,2 IPO 471,0 TGK -13 7.04 MICEX , RTS 12,9 IPO 463,7 TGK -7 ( Volzhskaya TGK ) 26.03 Listing ( secondary trading ) Placement volume / new size of authorized capital , % Type Volume , mln USD Company Date IPO/SPO of Russian companies in 2008
  6. 6. Secondary share market
  7. 7. P/E coefficient * for certain countries and regions * — August 2008, Bloomberg 771 7,1 Hong Kong 469 7,7 Singapore 670 9,5 Australia 264 10,2 Russia 1705 10,3 India 1204 10,7 South Korea 260 11,3 Indonesia 150 11,6 Great Britain 96 11,9 Germany 3182 12,5 Japan 210 12,8 France 126 13,0 Italy 229 14,0 Spain 234 14,1 Brazil 466 15,8 Canada 3774 16,0 USA 1801 21,7 China Number of analyzed stocks P/E
  8. 8. P/E coefficient * for certain industries of BRIC countries * — August 2008 , Bloomberg 1801 1705 264 234 4004 Number of analyzed stocks 10,4 15,8 6,4 13,4 9,7 Oil and gas production 19,4 8,5 8,6 12,8 12,4 Production of semi-processed materials ( metals , plastic , building materials , paper, etc .) 17,0 9,6 11,4 12,5 13,4 Finances 21,0 9,2 10,8 16,0 13,5 Consumer goods 23,5 13,0 8,2 18,3 15,1 Telecommunications 20,4 10,2 13,9 12,1 15,6 Industrial goods 25,4 12,1 7,2 17,4 16,3 Information technologies 22,9 19,7 16,6 8,6 18,4 Production and distribution of electric power , gas and water 31,5 10,3 20,2 39,9 18,5 Medicine , pharmaceutics and biotechnologies 30,6 15,2 22,9 18,8 25,2 Consumer services 21,7 10,3 10,2 14,1 15,3 All industries China India Russia Brazil BRIC
  9. 9. Internationalization of the Russian financial market * — January – July
  10. 10. Breakdown of trading in the share market Nonresidents Clients who have their funds in trust management Legal entities Individuals Dealer operations
  11. 11. Attraction of long-term foreign investors * Source : Interfax Business Service ( materials from Thomson One for IR) 15 India 15 Vietnam 17 Azerbaijan 22 Seychelles 27 Israel 28 China 39 Moldova 46 Germany 50 Latvia 54 USA 57 Armenia 58 Lithuania 59 British Virgin Islands 61 Uzbekistan 90 Great Britain 92 Kazakhstan 259 Byelorussia 319 Ukraine 379 Japan 2 036 Cyprus Number of registered clients-nonresidents Countries Clients-nonresidents on MICEX Stock Exchange 6,4% 14,6% 10,6% low (<33%) 35,9% 29,5% 39,1% average (33%—70%) 57,7% 55,9% 50,3% high (>70%) Portfolio turnover : 3,3% 3,4% 2,1% Share of Russian assets in assets 73,4 49,5 22,8 Investments in Russian stocks , billion USD . 2 206,7 1 432,6 1 092,1 Assets under management , billion USD . 2007 2006 2005 Foreign investors in Russian stocks and depositary receipts * (at year-end )
  12. 12. Development of internal investment base billion RUR * — at the end of 2007 3 12 402 Pension savings 20 95 473 Pension reserves of non-state pension funds 50 384 765 Investment funds 8 66 780 Insurance companies 2 316 20125 Banks % billion RUR Volume of investments in stocks Financial potential Financial potential and volume of investments in stocks of certain categories of investors *
  13. 13. Project MICEX Discovery <ul><li>MICEX Discovery — selection criteria : </li></ul><ul><li>Service in the NDC </li></ul><ul><li>Liquidity </li></ul><ul><li>Transparency </li></ul><ul><li>Expert opinion ( interest of the market ) </li></ul>* — according to data from quarterly reports for the 1 st quarter of 2008
  14. 14. Improvement of the infrastructure and development of instruments <ul><li>Concentration of liquidity for Russian assets </li></ul><ul><li>Creation of IPO market </li></ul><ul><li>Advent of foreign investors </li></ul><ul><li>IGC Sector </li></ul><ul><li>Commercial papers </li></ul><ul><li>Simple clearing </li></ul><ul><li>International financial hub : </li></ul><ul><li>Considerable number of foreign investors </li></ul><ul><li>Ruble is a currency of international settlements </li></ul><ul><li>Trading in foreign securities </li></ul><ul><li>Financial and banking services satisfying best world standards </li></ul>MICEX Discovery New instruments ( RDRs , foreign securities , infrastructure bonds ) T+3 settlements Creation of integrated financial market covering CIS 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Transition to partial preliminary deposition of funds in the stock market Implementation of CCP in the stock market 2005
  15. 15. Moscow: an international financial hub NEW YORK  LONDON  PARIS   FRANKFURT  MOSCOW  SYNGAPORE  HONG KONG  TOKYO
  16. 16. Contacts <ul><li>Address: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>13 B.Kislovskiy Per., Moscow, 125009, Russia </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Telephone: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>( 4 95) 234-48-11 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fax: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>( 4 95) 705-96-22 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>E-mail: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Web site: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>www.micex.ru </li></ul></ul>Prepared by Information and Analysis Division of MICEX

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