1. Reconciling targets for the environment, development and oil palm expansion in Colombia John Garcia‐Ulloa Lian Pin Koh Jaboury Ghazoul Sean Sloan Pablo Pacheco
2. Oil palm One of the most profitable oil crops in the world Wide range of uses Expansion driven by growing demand for food and energy 16000 Indonesia Malaysia 14000 Nigeria Americas 12000 Rest of Africa Area harvested (1000 ha) 10000 Rest of South East Asia 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 FAOSTAT (2010) Year
3. Oil Palm farming in Colombia 5th largest producer in the world 2007: 316 402 ha cultivated 75% planted area belongs productive units > 500 ha
4. Government Policies on Oil Palm Key sector for making the transition to a higher domestic use of Biofuels Key component in the government plans for development of large scale agro‐industries in Colombia.Projections of national demand of biofuels. Biofuel 2008 2010 2015 2020Ethanol 61’660’680 62’346’768 81’925’066 115’711’178Biodiesel 9’957’503 39’926’415 120’090’479 244’134’427 Colombian Ministry of Agriculture 2009
5. Expansion of oil palm cultivation in ColombiaAim to increase crude palm oil production from 0.7 Mt/yr to 3.5 Mt/yr by 2020.How this expansion will affect: Food production systems? Biodiversity and Ecosystems ? Carbon stocks?
6. Can we reconcile the expansion of oil palm with agricultural and environmental objectives?
7. Spatially‐explicit tradeoff analysis model Simulate the spatial pattern of oil palm expansion in Colombia in different scenarios. Construction of scenarios Creation of a spatial database Modelling exercise
8. Scenario Expansion rulea Business as usual From areas with high yield potential for oil palm, close to roads and established plantations, to areas with lower scores for these variables Agroindustry development Favouring conversion of areas with low yield potential Single‐priority scenarios for rice , maize and sugarcane Ecosystem protection Expansion prioritized to areas with high level of human intervention, minimizing transformation of natural areas. Modified land uses ranked by profitability (conversion prioritized to low profitable areas) Carbon conservation Expansion prioritized to areas with low levels of above and below ground carbon stocks A combined scenario of all single priority scenariosHybrid approach (Multi‐priority scenario)
9. Spatial data baseLand use cover Yield potential for oil palm Protection status Forest Suitable (High) Protected Pastures Not Suitable Not protected
10. Spatially‐explicit tradeoff analysis model Creation of a spatial database Land use cover (IGAC 2008) Vegetation carbon stocks (Above and below ground) (Ruesch & Gibbs 2008) Yield potential for oil palm, rice, maize, sugarcane and soya (based on soil and climate characteristics) (IIASA 2002) Location and extent of protected areas (minorities’ territories, national parks) (IGAC 2008) Road network (IGAC 2008) Administrative divisions (IGAC 2008) Profitability of agricultural and ranching lands (Garcia‐Ulloa et al 2011)
11. Assigning probabilities of conversion to OP Land cover: Forest Distance to road network and established plantation: <25 km Oil palm suitability: Very High Maize/Rice suitability: Marginal Sugarcane suitability: Marginal Carbon stored in biomass: 19300 t/haP(Business as usual): High P(Ecosystem conservation): LowP(Food production): High P(Carbon): Low P(hybrid): Medium
12. Modeling exercise The model then progressively converts polygons according to the story line of each scenario Expansion only allowed in areas with a moderate or higher suitability for oil palm. Measure 4 outcomes directly related to each of the scenarios. Land use change: Area converted to oil palm Ecosystem conversion and biodiversity losses Biomass carbon losses Food production capacity losses (Cereals and sugarcane)
13. What about impacts on livelihoods of local communities? Lack of social explicit spatial data (census available but very difficult to join to land use covers) Social impacts are difficult to model, we don’t know in which ways oil palm development affects the livelihoods of local communities: Business models: smallholders vs. large companies Absorption of local labour? Does it generate income to local goverments?
14. Results The results from this research will be soon published (II semester 2011), for further information on this project visit www.ecology.ethz.ch or email to email@example.com . The original spatially‐explicit approach model was published in: LP Koh & J Ghazoul. 2010. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:11140‐11144