Financial Forum 2011
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Financial Forum 2011

on

  • 737 views

2011 Financial Forum Power Point Presentation hosted by Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management Inc. Topics include the global financial crisis and market outlook.

2011 Financial Forum Power Point Presentation hosted by Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management Inc. Topics include the global financial crisis and market outlook.

Statistics

Views

Total Views
737
Views on SlideShare
737
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment
  • Read slide
  • If they stopped the clock on the first half of 2011, the S&P would have looked very different than it did a mere four trading days later. This is the nature of markets. See the 2 year return of the S&P and MSCI World Index vs. the 3 year return? That’s a dramatic difference. Source: Google Finance
  • We are likely still in the midst of a long-term or “secular” bear market. That does not mean that stocks fall continuously. It just means that sustained advances are harder to come by. Since many investors were educated about investing in the 1980s and 1990s, a glorious time for stock investors, a lot of re-education about how markets can behave has had to occur the past 11 years. Source:http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-secular-bull-bear-markets.html?SP-Composite-secular-trends
  • Relative to what people earn working, home prices have fallen dramatically after surging for nearly a decade.
  • However, prices have yet to find a bottom.
  • Data on sales of new homes is bittersweet – homes are being sold, but many are situations that involve a short sale or foreclosure. Source: http://www.googlerealestate.com/shadow-inventory-2011 /
  • At this point in the recovery, the U.S. is way behind past recoveries in restoring jobs that were lost. By now, it would not have been unreasonable to think that we could have closed the gap completely. But in fact, we are nowhere near that point. This more than anything else we discuss in this presentation is a thorn in the side of progress toward the next economic boom. Source: http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html#category=Employment&chart=EmploymentRecessionsNov.jpg
  • Many of those who ARE working would like to be working more, but can’t find a full-time job. Sad but true. Source: http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html#category=Employment&chart=EmploymentRecessionsNov.jpg
  • Even sadder is the possibility that some jobs are gone forever. Unemployment is no longer a temporary state for many. The key to turning things around will be to find new growth industries. http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html#category=Employment&chart=UnemployedOver26WeekMay2011.jpg
  • Unemployment and housing are two significant headwinds for the U.S. economy today. Now, let’s examine some other important areas of the economic landscape.
  • Consumer confidence has bounced off of the severe lows of late 2009. However, it still has a ways to go to regain its early-2007 level. Why is this important? Because economic growth can’t occur unless people are enthusiastic about spending money. They need to be confident about their own futures to feel that way.
  • NEED SOURCE
  • Europe is a different story. The EFSF bailout fund — currently at $620 billion — is enough to rescue Portugal and Greece, but not Spain or Italy. Germany and France are resisting the Eurobond movement. A break-up of the euro could set off a financial domino trend from Greece outward.
  • Europe is a different story. The EFSF bailout fund — currently at $620 billion — is enough to rescue Portugal and Greece, but not Spain or Italy. Germany and France are resisting the Eurobond movement. A break-up of the euro could set off a financial domino trend from Greece outward.
  • Five bailouts in 14 months. Alexander the Great must be turning over in his grave. The main issue for all of us is the path that the Greeks and other weak European economies went down to reach this point. Years of artificially-manufactured high living created this problem. Failure to acknowledge it or rein it in made it worse. This is not only a Greek, Portuguese and Spanish problem in Europe. It exist in the USA as well, as recent years have shown us.
  • Need source
  • Need source
  • Need source
  • Countries with a debt to GDP ratio of 90% or more have seen an extreme drop-off in economic growth-a cautionary tale for the U.S., where debt to GDP may reach 100% by 2020.
  • Most of the debt has simply been shifted around in the system. At theses high levels of total debt to GDP, it is difficult for the economy to achieve sustainable recovery.
  • From our 2011 Outlook published February 2 nd , 2011 We expected S&P 500 to enter into the 1325-1358 and either peak in this area or run to even higher into the 1400 levels The alternative scenario was that we would see a bear market peak sometime in the second or third quarter and for the market to head into another bear market
  • Read Slide
  • Consumer credit reached a historic high. Includes credit cars, mortgages etc. and is imploding from bankruptcies, and the individuals ability to simply walk away Consumer debt, commercial mortgage debt, U.S. Government Debt, Europe Debt, record level of money printing, fueling an asset bubble (caused by credit implosion, Federal Reserve is out of ammo balance sheet
  • Self-liquidating credit is a loan paid back in a short period of time from production Full transaction adds value to economy Non-self-liquidating credit is not tied to production, e.g. consumer purchases, margins for stock purchases No production effort tied to loan Adds costs, not value to economy Cost of the debt burdens production
  • If our secular outlook tells us which direction the freeway is headed, then our cyclical outlook tells us the more immediate conditions so we know which lane to drive in, how fast to go and what the drivers around us are doing. “ investors will need to show considerable agility as tails grow fatter and market outcomes become more uncertain” Flexibility and agility are embedded in our investment process
  • Advance & Protect is a capital preservation model with an offensive strategy. More simply put, that means we are going to try and capture growth when the market is rising and protect capital when the market is falling. We use a strict buy and sell discipline and a combination of qualitative and quantitative strategies to achieve our objective. Our qualitative strategy is the fundamental analysis we use to filter all the available investments down to the ones we want in our portfolio, and our quantitative strategy is the computer program we use to determine entry and exit points.
  • This diagram is a very simple way of illustrating the objectives of Advance and Protect. Of course we can’t guarantee the perfect entry or exit point, but in general the objective of Advance & Protect is to participate in the market when it is advancing and move out of the market when it is falling.
  • So why use Advance and Protect now? Let’s first take a look at where the market has been. Over the past 60 years there have been four distinct market eras or cycles. Two of these cycles have been prolonged bull markets offering above average returns with very little volatility. The other two have been sideways markets with periods of high volatility making it difficult to create wealth. An active investment process like Advance & Protect may be useful in navigating these volatile periods.
  • So why use Advance and Protect now? In our current market environment, and over the last ten years, a buy and hold investment strategy has not worked. Investors have lost a lot of money in the last two bear markets. As individuals we don’t have infinite time horizons and it becomes harder to recover from losses the older you get. Also, due to globalized markets and electronic, 24 hour trading, diversification alone is not enough to reduce market risk. For example, in 2008, all asset classes fell in the same way, except cash and treasury bonds. Diversification did not help reduce risk.
  • This is a comparison of Buy and Hold versus Advance and Protect using an article written in 2005 for the Financial Planning Association Journal. The article was written in support of a buy and hold strategy and the author looked at a 15 year period from January 1984 through December 1998. The S&P average annual return during those 15 years was 17.89%, but only a handful of trading days accounted for most of the S&P 500’s returns.
  • According to the article, if you missed the best 10 trading days in that 15 year period, the S&P 500 returns were 14.24%. If you missed the best 20 days, the returns were 11.99%, If you missed the best 30 days the returns were 10.01% and if you missed the best 40 days, the returns fell to 8.23%, less than half of the 17.89% annual average.
  • What the article doesn’t say is what happens to returns if you miss the worst trading days. So we looked at the same time period the article looked at and missing the worst trading days during those 15 years actually has a bigger impact on returns. If you missed the worst 10 days, the returns were 24.17%, not 17.89%. If you missed the worst 20 days, the returns were 27.04% and missing the worst 30 days the returns were 29.45%. If you missed the worst 40 days out of 15 years, the returns were 31.66%, almost double the annual average return of 17.89%.
  • Now this is for illustration purposes only, and we cannot time the market perfectly to capture the best days and miss the worst. Doing that is impossible. So we eliminated the best and worst trading days from the same 15 year time period. And interestingly, missing the best and worst trading days still beat the buy and hold return of 17.89% and the returns were pretty even regardless of whether it was 10 days or 40 days. And that is basically what Advance and Protect does. It removes the peaks and valleys from a market cycle and captures the middle part of the return.
  • If our secular outlook tells us which direction the freeway is headed, then our cyclical outlook tells us the more immediate conditions so we know which lane to drive in, how fast to go and what the drivers around us are doing. “investors will need to show considerable agility as tails grow fatter and market outcomes become more uncertain” Flexibility and agility are embedded in our investment process
  • If our secular outlook tells us which direction the freeway is headed, then our cyclical outlook tells us the more immediate conditions so we know which lane to drive in, how fast to go and what the drivers around us are doing. “investors will need to show considerable agility as tails grow fatter and market outcomes become more uncertain” Flexibility and agility are embedded in our investment process

Financial Forum 2011 Financial Forum 2011 Presentation Transcript

  • “ Growing and preserving wealth for generations”
  • Welcome To The 2011 Financial Forum Hosted by The financial consultants of Zeller Kern are registered representatives and investment adviser representatives with and offer securities and advisory services through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA Financial Investor Regulatory Authority / SIPC Security Investor Protection Corporation, a registered investment advisor. Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management Inc., 11335 Gold Express Drive, Suite 155, Gold River, CA 95670, 916-436-8270
  • Today’s Speakers Steven E. Zeller, President, CFP ® , AIF ® , CExP TM Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management, Inc. Trevor K. Kern, CFO, AIF ® , AAMS Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management, Inc. Special Guest Robert G. Burris, Senior Vice President Sacramento Area Commerce and Trade Organization
    • To keep you informed about our views on the economy and markets.
    • To educate you about important topics presented by our guest speakers.
    • What is new with Zeller Kern.
    • A chance to get answers to your questions.
    Purpose of This Event
  • Download Today’s Presentation
    • at
    • http://www.zellerkern.com/news.htm
    • If you would like to receive our free “Weekly Investment Monitor” please let us know.
    • Or
    • Visit our website: www.zellerkern.com
    Subscribe to Zeller Kern’s Exclusive Publication
    • Recap of the economic environment
    • Introduction of Mr. Robert G. Burris, Senior Vice President of Sacramento Area Commerce and Trade Organization
    • Discuss global financial crisis and market outlook
    • Break
    • Overview of our investment process and why we are committed to our “Advance and Preserve” discipline
    • What’s new with Zeller Kern
    • Closing remarks
    Agenda
  • RECAP OF ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
  • Market Review
  • S&P 500 Returns Source: Russell Investment Group, Standard and Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
  • Where We Have Been
  • Where Are We Now Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The market for all securities is subject to fluctuation such that upon sale an investor may lose principal. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. YTD September 15, 2011 Return Stocks: Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.94% Standard & Poor’s 500 -3.86% Nasdaq Composite -1.73% Russell 2000 Index -8.73% MSCI EAFE Index -14.98% Bonds: 10-Year Treasury Yield 1.95% Commodities: DJ-UBS Commodity Index -2.53% Gold 25.72% Currencies: U.S. Dollar Index 0.11%
  • Secular vs. Cyclical Markets
  • The State of U.S. Housing and Real Estate
  • Homes Are More Affordable… Source: Census Bureau, FRB, BEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
  • … But How Low Can They Go? Source: National Association of Realtors, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
  • This is Not How You Want to Increase Home Sales
  • Housing Starts Source: Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
  • Unemployment
  • One of These Things is Not Like the Other One…
  • Some Progress has been made 2008-2009: 8.8 Million Jobs Lost 2010-Mid 2011: 2.1 Millions Jobs Gained
  • Under-Employment: A Big Issue…
  • … And Some Jobs May Not Come Back
  • Other Key U.S. Economic Observations
  • Confidence Rising from Lows…
  • How About Gold?
    • Do you see a bubble?
    Source: EcoWin, BLS, U.S. Department of Energy, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
    • Robert G. Burris, Senior Vice President Sacramento Area Commerce and Trade Organization
    Special Guest
  • Regional Economy and New Opportunities September 22 nd , 2011
  • Positive job growth by early 2012
  • Recovery in most large sectors
  • Unemployment will turn around
  • Stronger statewide growth for 2011 and 2012
  • Modestly positive business confidence
  • Positive moderate-term job growth projected Data Source: CSER analysis of Moody’s Economy.com information
  • Notable population growth projected in next decade
  • Economic Development Trends
    • International Activity
    • Green Economy
    • Healthcare Industry
    • Food/Beverage Logistics
    • Long-Term State Government Activity
  •  
  •  
  • Recent Prospect Activity (Last six months)
    • 50 percent of new prospects are in clean technology.
    • Solar companies make up 76 percent of total clean technology prospects.
    • Of total prospects seeking manufacturing sites, half are clean technology companies; most are in the solar industry.
    • Of total clean technology prospects, 39 percent are based in Europe.
    • Of non-clean prospects seeking sites for manufacturing and distribution, over half are involved in food/beverage industries.
    • 70 percent of service prospects involved in education and training.
  • SACTO-Assisted Relocations/Expansions (2009-11)
    • Nippon Shokken (Japan)
    • Aero Union Corporation (USA)
    • Harris and Bruno International (USA)
    • Mori Seiki/Gildemeister (Japan/Germany)
    • Mounting Systems (Germany)
    • RagingWire Enterprise Solutions (USA)
    • RIOS Solar Energy (Spain)
    • Global Solar Energy Solutions (Korea)
    • Siemens Mobility (Germany)
    • SMA America (Germany)
    • N Solar (Korea)
    • Gemco Minerals (Canada)
    • OPDE Group/Proinso (Spain)
    • Etimex Solar (Germany)
    • Nestle Water (USA)
    • Telefunken Semiconductors (Germany)
    * Company just signed lease in Sacramento. Confidential until press release.
  • Competitive Advantages: Why Sacramento?
    • California is target #1 (ie. 70% of all installed solar capacity in U.S.)
    • California’s Policy HQ (CalEPA, Energy Commission, Air Resources, Governor’s Office, etc.)
    • Affordability (20 to 30 percent lower operating costs than coastal regions)
    • Talented workforce (Strong tradition in energy trades)
    • Progressive Utilities with Experience (SMUD and PG&E, national leaders in renewables)
    • UC Davis/Sacramento State/Community Colleges (R&D to installation)
    • Energy resources (Sun, wind and biomass)
    • Optimal location for logistics (Air, sea, and road)
    • Momentum of other companies (high number of first U.S. locations. High growth of domestics)
    • California Air Resources Board
    • California Biomass Collaborative (UCD)
    • California Energy Commission
    • California EPA
    • California Fuel Cell Partnership
    • California Independent Systems Operator (ISO)
    • California Lighting Technology Center (UCD)
    • CalPERS
    • CalSTRS
    • California Solar Energy Industries Assoc.
    • Air Quality Research Center
    • Interdisciplinary Center for Sustainability (Sac State)
    Major Institutional and Academic Headquarters
    • Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies
    • Clean Energy Center (Sac State)
    • Energy Efficiency Center (UCD)
    • Geothermal Resources Council
    • Independent Energy Producers Assoc.
    • Institute of Transportation Studies (UCD)
    • The California State Legislature
    • The Office of the Governor
    • California Wind Energy Collaborative (UCD)
    • California Institute of Food & Agricultural Research
    • Western Cooling Efficiency
    • Center (UCD)
  • Media/Research Acknowledgement
    • Sacramento ranked 7 th in U.S. in “Smarter Cities” sustainability index (National Resources Defense Council, 2009)
    • Top 10 in U.S. for Clean Tech Job activity (Clean Edge, 2009)
    • Sacramento ranked 4 th in market size for hybrid vehicles (Cars.com Green Index, 2009)
    • SMUD ranked 5 th in the U.S. for renewable energy sales (National Renewable Energy Laboratories, NREL, 2010)
    • Sacramento ranked 4 th in U.S. as Electric Vehicle-Ready (Th!NK, 2009)
    • General Electric’s Ten Best Cities for Electric Vehicle Integration (American Community Survey, U.S. Census, 2010)
    • Sacramento has the 5 th highest percentage of LEED certified building in the U.S. (CoStar, 2009)
    • Top 5 Cities for PEV Vehicle-Readiness (Roland Berger News, Rocky Mountain Institute, 2010)
    • Sacramento ranked 1 st in California in “green” job growth between 1995 and 2008 and was 2 nd in growth between 1995 and 2009 with 103 % Growth (Next10/Collaborative Economics, 2009, Shades of Green 2010)
    • The Sacramento Region has installed the most solar per capita in California, and likely the U.S. (NREL, PV OpenAccess, 2010)
    • Sacramento ranked 8 th in the U.S. for markets most likely to participate in green energy programs (Nielsen Wire, 2010)
    • Sacramento ranked 8 th in the U.S. for the number of EnergyStar buildings and 9 th in the total cost savings from EnergyStar buildings (National Renewable Energy Laboratories, NREL, 2011)
    • Sacramento Region ranked 3 rd in the U.S. for the percentage of clean economy jobs, 7 th for the percentage increase of green jobs, and 12 th in the total number of green jobs. (Brookings Institution, 2011)
  • Health Care Facility Expansions
    • Sutter Health
    • Anderson Lucchetti Women’s & Children’s Center, 395,000 sf, 242-bed.
    • Completion 2013. (Sacramento)
    • Kaiser Permanente
    • 5-story tower, 48 private rooms, 30 intensive care rooms.
    • Completion 2011. (Sacramento)
    • Catholic Healthcare West
    • 65,000 sf lab/surgery expansion. Completion 2012. (Elk Grove)
    • Kaiser Permanente
    • Promenade Medical Offices 67,000 sf building. Completion 2011. (Elk Grove)
    • Mercy
    • Alex G. Spanos Heart Center 4-story, $153 million, 121,000 sf.
    • Completion 2011. (Sacramento)
    • UC Davis Cancer Center
    • Expansion 46,000 sf. Completion 2012. (Sacramento)
    • Fremont-Rideout
    • Hospital expansion, 6-floor, $225 million, 215,000 sf. Completion 2014
    • (Marysville)
    • UC Davis Medical Center
    • Surgery and Emergency Pavilion 472,000 sf expansion. Recently
    • Completed. (Sacramento)
  • MARKET OUTLOOK AND GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
  • Global Debt
  • 2010 May 2 – first bailout ($43B) May 18 – second bailout ($18.7B) September – IMF says Greek reform “ahead of schedule” 2011 January – rating agencies cut Greek debt to “junk” February – third bailout ($19.5B) April – Europe leaders urge Greece to control spending May – S&P cuts debt to B (just above Pakistan) as anti-austerity protests rise June 8 – fourth bailout ($8.5B) June 9 – GDP tumbles 5.5% June 13 – S&P downgrades to CCC July 2 – fifth bailout ($17B) approved, for disbursement July 15 A Review of Greece
  • Debt To GDP Of The PIIGS
    • Portugal: 86.3% Debt to GDP
    • Italy: 100.6% Debt to GDP
    • Ireland: 95.2% Debt to GDP
    • Greece: 152.3% Debt to GDP
    • Spain: 52.6% Debt to GDP
    Source: FactSet, IMF’s June 2011 World Economic Outlook, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
  • Further Pressures Ahead Source: FactSet, IMF’s June 2011 World Economic Outlook, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
  • Looming concern for U.S. Source: U.S. Treasury, BEA, CBO, OMB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
  • Where is the growth?
  • Transfer of Debt
  • U.S. Borrows 40% of what it Spends
  • Our Outlook
  • 2011 Chart Source: VPM Partners
    • Economy to continue to mark a gradual recovery through at least first half of this year
      • But employment and real estate to be a determining factor
    • Equity markets – continued upward trend through the first half of the year
    • The alternative scenario was that we would see a bear market peak sometime in the second or third quarter
    2011 Outlook
    • Investor psyche had achieved a pessimistic extreme in early 2009.
      • Socioeconomic mood was rising, all through 2009, most of 2010 and reached a high in may of 2011
    • The worst is over theory green shoots
    • Corporate earnings rebounded through technology upgrades, down sizing, and some improvement in revenue
    • QE1, QE2 dangerously pumping liquidity into the financial system
    What has fueled the stock market rebound
  • Strong Headwinds Ahead Declining optimism of the herd
  • The Behavior of Herding
    • Extreme opinions, shared widely constitute the single most reliable indicator of an impending change of direction for a market
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  • Strong Headwinds Ahead
    • Declining optimism of the herd
    • European Debt Meltdown
    • Structural Problem – Aging Population
    • Financial Crisis Within
    • European Banking System and the Domestic Banking System
  • Strong Headwinds Ahead
    • Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet is now massively leveraged 55 to 1 Debt to Asset ratio
    • U.S. Government Debt
    • Unemployment at unacceptable levels
    • Regulated to oblivion
  • The Affects of an Overleveraged Economy and Financial System
    • Possibly the greatest asset and credit bubble of all time
    • Federal governments have reached the highest level of debt in human history
  • Results
    • A heightened risk of a severe recession or worse caused by a severe contraction of credit through defaults and depreciation
    • Most asset values will decline in value
    • Deflation not inflation
  • What is Deflation
    • Inflation : an increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods
    • Deflation : a contraction in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods
  • Credit
    • Self-liquidating credit
    • Non-self-liquidating credit
  • Increase of Credit Supply
  • Triggers for Deflation
    • Expansion of credit ends when ability to sustain trends can’t be maintained
    • Confidence and productivity decrease, supply of credit contracts
    • Social mood changes from optimism to pessimism ; producers and consumers go from expansion to conservation
  • Examples of Extreme Social Moods
  • Published 2010
  • Deflationary Crash
    • A deflationary crash involves persistent, sustained, deep, general decline in people’s desire and ability to lend and borrow
    • A depression involves a persistent, sustained, deep, general decline in production
  • Primary Preconditions of Deflation
    • Deflation of excess credit
    • Excess of credit situation seems to last years before bubble breaks
    • Some outside event brought the thing to a head, but signs visible in advance
    • None was ever quite like the last, so the public is always fooled
    • Deflation of non-self-liquidating credit usually produces greater slumps
  •  
  •  
  •  
  • OUR PROCESS
  • Advance & Preserve Investment Process
    • A capital preservation model with an offensive strategy.
    • A risk balancing process to capture growth when the market is rising and protect capital when the market is falling.
    • Employs a strict buy and sell discipline.
    • Uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative strategies.
    • No Strategy insures a profit or protects against a loss. Investing involves risk including the loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Observed market movement may not persist in the future. There is no way to determine the “right” time to enter or exit the market. Signals for offensive/defensive action may be inaccurate.
  • Advance & Preserve Investment Process There is no guarantee this strategy will meet its objectives. The strategy does not guarantee a profit or guarantee protection against a loss. This illustration is hypothetical and is intended to illustrate the strategy only. The “right” entry or exit point is not guaranteed.
  • Why Advance & Preserve?
    • A Lesson in Market Eras
    • Over the past 60 years, there have been four distinct market eras.
    • Two of these periods have been prolonged bull markets offering above average returns with very little market volatility.
    • The other two have been exceptionally volatile periods making it extremely difficult to create wealth.
    No Strategy insures a profit or protects against a loss. Investing involves risk including the loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Observed market movement may not persist in the future. There is no way to determine the “right” time to enter or exit the market. Signals for offensive/defensive action may be inaccurate.
  • Why Advance & Protect?
    • Buy and Hold investment strategies may not work in our current market environment.
    • Bear markets have robbed investors of capital or set back growth for years.
    • Individual Investors do not have infinite time horizons to recover from major market declines.
    • Diversification alone is not enough to reduce market risk due to globalized markets and electronic trading.
    Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
  • Nowhere to Hide
  • Buy & Hold vs. Advance & Preserve
    • In an article from the Financial Planning Association Journal, May 2005, the author cited the following statistics…
      • Bull market from January 1984 through December 1998.
      • S&P 500 buy-and-hold return was 17.89% annually.
      • Over this 15-year period, only a handful of trading days accounted for most of the market’s movement.
    Source: Financial Planning Association Journal, May 2005: ‘Missing the Ten Best’ by Paul J. Gire, CFP®
  • Buy & Hold vs. Advance & Preserve Source: Financial Planning Association Journal, May 2005: ‘Missing the Ten Best’ by Paul J. Gire, CFP® 8.23% 40 days 10.01% 30 days 11.99% 20 days 14.24% 10 days Best # of trading days missed
  • Buy & Hold vs. Advance & Preserve Missing the worst days has a bigger impact… Source: Financial Planning Association Journal, May 2005: “Missing the Ten Best” by Paul J. Gire, CFP ® 31.66% 8.23% 40 days 29.45% 10.01% 30 days 27.04% 11.99% 20 days 24.17% 14.24% 10 days Worst Best Number of Trading Days Missed
  • Buy and Hold vs. Advance and Preserve
    • Missing the best and worst days beat buy-and-hold’s 17.89% average annual return
    Source: Financial Planning Association Journal, May 2005: “Missing the Ten Best” by Paul J. Gire, CFP ® 20.87% 31.66% 8.23% 40 Days 20.80% 29.45% 10.01% 30 Days 20.68% 27.04% 11.99% 20 Days 20.31% 24.17% 14.24% 10 Days Both Worst Best # of Trading Days Missed
  • Questions
  • What’s New
  •  
  • Introducing Wealth Vault ®
  • Download Today’s Presentation
    • at
    • http://www.zellerkern.com/news.htm
    • If you would like to receive our free “Weekly Investment Monitor” please let us know.
    • Or
    • Visit our website: www.zellerkern.com
    Subscribe to Zeller Kern’s Exclusive Publication
  • Thank You The financial consultants of Zeller Kern are registered representatives and investment adviser representatives with and offer securities and advisory services through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a registered investment adviser. Financial Planning offered through Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management, Inc., a registered investment adviser. Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management Inc, 11335 Gold Express Drive, Suite 155, Gold River, CA 95670, 916-436-8270