Towards a Green Economy
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Towards a Green Economy

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  • 1. Lima, Peru, 24th March, 2011 Pavan SukhdevSpecial Adviser and Head – Green Econmy Initiative United Nations Environment Programme
  • 2. What is Greenabout the : Definition good Economy GEI? “A Green Economy can be defined as one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities.” 3. GEI Analysis UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE
  • 3. What is Greenabout the - Definition good Economy GEI? “A Green Economy can be defined as “Environmentally friendly GDP Growth” nearest to UNESCAP one that results in improved human 2005 & “Green Growth” models well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental Growth in risks and ecological scarcities.” per-capita inclusive wealth Dasgupta Arrow, Dasgupta, Operational level : a Green Economy is Maler one whose growth of income and jobs is driven by investments that reduce carbon Growth in emissions & pollution, increase energy & materials efficiency, & enhance natural Comprehensive capital wealth Stiglitz Stiglitz - Sen – Fitoussi 3. GEI Analysis UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE
  • 4. Green Economy Initiatives• Many developing nations are actively promoting transitions to a green economy, – Barbados National Strategic Plan for 2006-2025 – Brazil (State of Sao Paulo) Green Economy plan – Cambodia Green Economy Roadmap, 2009 – China is investing US$ 468 bn. to green key sectors in its 12th five -year plan (2011-2015) versus US$ 211 bn over the last five years. – Indonesia long-term development plan 2005-2025. – South Africa national Green Economy Plan• UNEP is supporting initiatives in around 20 countries.
  • 5. UNEP’s Green Economy Report FOCUS STRATEGY• Designing and driving • Establish “Enabling Conditions” transformation in key (regulations, subsidies, taxes sectors critical or highly and related reforms) material for greening the • Promote public and private global economy Investment KEY SECTORS• Agriculture, Freshwater, Forests, Fisheries, Energy, Transportation, Manufacturing, Waste, Buildings, Cities, Tourism SCENARIO ANALYSIS• “T-21” model, includes Natural Capital , to forecast outcomes on Capital stock, GDP growth, Employment UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE
  • 6. UNEP’s Green Economy Report FOCUS STRATEGY• Designing and driving • Establish “Enabling Conditions” transformation in key (regulations, subsidies, taxes sectors critical or highly and related reforms) material for greening the • Promote public and private global economy Investment KEY SECTORS• Agriculture, Freshwater, Forests, Fisheries, Energy, Transportation, Manufacturing, Waste, Buildings, Cities, Tourism SCENARIO ANALYSIS• “T-21” model, includes Natural Capital , to forecast outcomes on Capital stock, GDP growth, Employment UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE
  • 7. Green Economy : Scenario AnalysisScenarioInvesting 2% of global GDP into ten key sectors for a transition towardsa low-carbon, resource-efficient economy, as against a further 2%invested in “BAU”,Key findingsGreening the economy by investing in natural capital, resource andenergy efficiency, & low carbon energy can lead to: 1. Enhanced wealth & natural capital 2. Higher rates of GDP growth over time 3. Decent employment 4. Reduced poverty Source : T-21 Model, Green Economy Report, 2% of GDP invested in Greening vs 2% more in BAU
  • 8. Green Economy : reduces ecological scarcities… Source : T-21 Model, Green Economy Report, 2% of GDP invested in Greening vs 2% more in BAU
  • 9. Green Economy : over time, achievesGDP growth (%) higher rates of GDP growth … Source : T-21 Model, Green Economy Report, 2% of GDP invested in Greening vs 2% more in BAU
  • 10. Green Economy : Creates Employment• Agriculture: Over the next decade, global employment in Agriculture could increase by 4%• Forests: Forest conservation and reforestation could boost formal employment in this sector by 20% by 2050.• Transport: Improved energy efficiency across all transport modes combined with modal shift would increase employment by about 10% above business-as-usual• Energy: employment that is 20% higher than business as usual by 2050, while delivering robust economic growth and reduced emissions.
  • 11. Green Economy : Natural Capital and Poverty Alleviation Indonesia India Brazil 21% 10% 16%Ecosystem services as a 79%% of classical GDP 84% 90%Ecosystem services 99 million 352 million 20 milliondependency 25%Ecosystem services as a 75%% of “GDP of the Poor” 89% 47% Ecosystem servicesSource: Gundimeda and Sukhdev, D1 TEEB
  • 12. UNEP’s Green Economy Report FOCUS STRATEGY• Designing and driving • Establish “Enabling Conditions” transformation in key (regulations, subsidies, taxes sectors critical or highly and related reforms) material for greening the • Promote public and private global economy Investment KEY SECTORS• Agriculture, Freshwater, Forests, Fisheries, Energy, Transportation, Manufacturing, Waste, Buildings, Cities, Tourism SCENARIO ANALYSIS• “T-21” model, includes Natural Capital , to forecast outcomes on Capital stock, GDP growth, Employment UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE
  • 13. Green Economy : Sectoral Success Stories• Many developing nations demonstrate successful, scalable, sectoral models for transition to a green economy, – Bangladesh “Grameen Shakti” – rural non-grid electrification using Solar PV, microfinance, kerosene replacement cost pricing – Brazil sustainable city : Curitiba - Bus Rapid Transit System, low congestion & fuel losses, lower fuel usage, green infrastructure – China Solar Water Heaters – household cost saving, relief from Rheumatoid Arthritis, employment gains, reduced emissions – India NREGA 2005, now $ 8 bn in local transfers, employing 30 mil ion, for water conservation reforestation, – Kenya feed-in tariffs 2008, initially for wind, biomass & small hydro, now also geothermal & solar – South Korea Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) policy on packaging & products, recycling rate increase, economic benefits – Uganda Organic Agricultural transformation
  • 14. Agriculture : Challenges & Opportunities• Approximately 2.6 billion • 10 percent increase in farm people rely on agricultural yields -> 7 % reduction in production systems for their poverty in Africa, more than livelihood. (FAO, 2009) 5 % in Asia• 525 million small farms world wide, 404 million less • Green farming practices have than two hectares of land increased yields, especially on (Nagayets, 2005), Small small farms, between 79 % farms cultivate 60 % of (Pretty et al, 2006) and 180 %. arable land (Herren et al. 2010) An increase in overall GDP coming from agricultural labor productivity is on average 2.5 times more effective in raising the incomes of the poorest quintile in developing countries than an equivalent increase in GDP coming from non-agricultural labor productivity. UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE
  • 15. Energy : Challenges & Opportunities… Reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions in the climate-policy scenarios Marine fisheries catch 80 mil tons• Rebuilding depleted stocks to 113 mil tons/ year• Effective management Source: World Energy Outlook 2008 UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE
  • 16. Enabling the Green Economy…• Establish sound regulatory frameworks• Phase out harmful subsidies in energy, water, fisheries and agriculture• Prioritize public investment towards greening• Limit public spending that depletes Natural Capital• Utilize smart market mechanisms and taxes• Build capacity through training and technology transfer• Strengthen international governence
  • 17. Financing the Green Economy…• Modeled investments in the range of $1.3 trillion /year ( less than 1/10 of gross capital formation)• Investment in green sectors is growing : – Investments in clean energy of $200 bn + in 2010, up from $162 in 2009 and $173 in 2008.• Policy & Subsidy Reform, Public investment, & Green Public Procurement can leverage private capital effectively• Need for innovative financing routes… – Development Financing Institutions – local & global – Seeding with Public Finance – Green Climate Fund – REDD+ and other Payments for Ecosystem Services – Resource Taxation & other Eco-Taxes
  • 18. Thank You !