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Real options
 

Real options

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    Real options Real options Presentation Transcript

    • Real Options
      Jürgen De Smet & Yves Hanoulle
    • What do you know about Real options?
      Nothing
      A LOT
      Little bit
      2
    • What do you want to learn?
      3
      3
    • Up-front decisions
      Up-Front Decisions
      4
    • You don’t need to decide right now!
      5
    • Only decide when to decide
      6
    • Keep as many options open as possible
      7
    • Actively gather information until you have to decide
      8
    • You only commit when you must
      9
    • when you have a good reason to
      10
    • Why do you want to do that?
      11
    • Later you are smarter
      12
    • you can deal with risks
      13
    • a real option has a value
      14
    • a real option has experiation criteria
      15
    • a real option has a cost
      16
    • Common sense?
      17
    • Common sense for teams
      18
    • Real options decision making – Identify Options
      A
      B
      Options
      C
      19
    • Real options decision making – Identify Conditions
      A
      X or Y
      B
      conditions
      X and Y
      C
      Z
      20
    • Real options decision making – put on timeline
      A
      X or Y
      B
      X and Y
      C
      Z
      21
    • Real options decision making – Identify deadline
      A
      X or Y
      B
      X and Y
      C
      Z
      22
    • Real options decision making – Time to decide
      A
      X or Y
      B
      X and Y
      C
      Z
      first decision point
      23
    • Real options decision making – wait for first condition
      A
      ?
      X or Y
      B
      X and Y
      C
      Z
      24
    • Real options decision making – Refine options
      A2
      X or Y
      B
      X and Y
      C
      Z
      25
    • Real options decision making – Find new options
      A2
      X or Y
      B
      X and Y
      C
      Z
      D
      Y
      26
    • Real options decision making – Push back decision
      A2
      X or Y
      B
      X and Y
      C
      C
      Z‘
      Z
      D
      Y
      27
    • Real options decision making – Plan D?
      A2
      X or Y
      B
      X and Y
      C
      Z‘
      D
      Y
      28
    • This is great
      29
    • Set based design
      30
    • Vehicle designs
      20 entered in a competition
      5 worked out in detail
      4 claymodels made
      2 prototypes made and revised
      1 model chosen
      Design options
      31
      31
    • 80 types considered
      narrowed down to 10 by testing
      4 types after more extensive testing
      1 selectedafterevalutation by computer simulations
      Type of engines
      32
    • agile user stories
      33
    • Test Driven Development
      34
    • Dimensional planning – Dirt road
      35
    • Dimensional planning – Cobblestone road
      36
    • Dimensional planning – Highway
      37
    • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
      Amsterdam
      highway
      Heusden
      38
    • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
      Heusden (Netherlands)
      Amsterdam
      highway
      Who is paying for this expensive mistake?
      Heusden (Belgium)
      Lets create a tighter contract so the customer does!
      39
    • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
      Heusden (Netherlands)
      Amsterdam
      Heusden (Belgium)
      40
    • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
      Heusden (Netherlands)
      Amsterdam
      Heusden (Belgium)
      41
    • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
      highway
      Heusden (Netherlands)
      Amsterdam
      Heusden (Belgium)
      42
    • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
      Dimensional Planning vs Cost?
      Amsterdam – Heusden Belgium : Dirt Road
      Amsterdam – Heusden Netherlands: Dirt Road
      Amsterdam – Heusden Netherlands: Cobblestone
      VS
      Amsterdam – Heusden Belgium Highway
      +
      Amsterdam – Heusden Netherlands ????
      43
    • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
      44
    • Story Mapping
      45
    • Real options vs Change requests
      46
    • Generate as much options as possible
      Identify the conditions and expiration timing
      Decide when to decide
      Actively go for more info
      Go for multiple options if needed
      Wait as long as possible
      Decide fast
      Get Real
      47
    • Look back at your questions...
      48
      48
    • http://www.agilecoach.net/html/Real%20Options%20handout.pdf
      The Toyota Way-Jeffrey Liker, pp 239-240: http://www.amazon.com/The-Toyota-Way-ebook/dp/B000SEGIVS
      Koen van Exem: http://www.inxin.com/wiki/DimensionalPlanning
      Software by Numbers: http://www.amazon.com/Software-Numbers-Low-Risk-High-Return-Development/dp/0131407287/
      http://leanprocrastination.com/blog/2011/09/a-backlog-is-waste-fill-it-later/ 
      Resources
      Jürgen De Smet & Yves Hanoulle
      49