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Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
Real options
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Real options
Real options
Real options
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Real options

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  • 1. Real Options<br />Jürgen De Smet &amp; Yves Hanoulle<br />
  • 2. What do you know about Real options?<br />Nothing<br />A LOT<br />Little bit<br />2<br />
  • 3. What do you want to learn?<br />3<br />3<br />
  • 4. Up-front decisions<br />Up-Front Decisions<br />4<br />
  • 5. You don’t need to decide right now!<br />5<br />
  • 6. Only decide when to decide<br />6<br />
  • 7. Keep as many options open as possible<br />7<br />
  • 8. Actively gather information until you have to decide<br />8<br />
  • 9. You only commit when you must<br />9<br />
  • 10. when you have a good reason to<br />10<br />
  • 11. Why do you want to do that?<br />11<br />
  • 12. Later you are smarter<br />12<br />
  • 13. you can deal with risks<br />13<br />
  • 14. a real option has a value<br />14<br />
  • 15. a real option has experiation criteria<br />15<br />
  • 16. a real option has a cost<br />16<br />
  • 17. Common sense?<br />17<br />
  • 18. Common sense for teams<br />18<br />
  • 19. Real options decision making – Identify Options<br />A<br />B<br />Options<br />C<br />19<br />
  • 20. Real options decision making – Identify Conditions<br />A<br />X or Y<br />B<br />conditions<br />X and Y<br />C<br />Z<br />20<br />
  • 21. Real options decision making – put on timeline<br />A<br />X or Y<br />B<br />X and Y<br />C<br />Z<br />21<br />
  • 22. Real options decision making – Identify deadline<br />A<br />X or Y<br />B<br />X and Y<br />C<br />Z<br />22<br />
  • 23. Real options decision making – Time to decide<br />A<br />X or Y<br />B<br />X and Y<br />C<br />Z<br />first decision point<br />23<br />
  • 24. Real options decision making – wait for first condition<br />A<br />?<br />X or Y<br />B<br />X and Y<br />C<br />Z<br />24<br />
  • 25. Real options decision making – Refine options<br />A2<br />X or Y<br />B<br />X and Y<br />C<br />Z<br />25<br />
  • 26. Real options decision making – Find new options<br />A2<br />X or Y<br />B<br />X and Y<br />C<br />Z<br />D<br />Y<br />26<br />
  • 27. Real options decision making – Push back decision<br />A2<br />X or Y<br />B<br />X and Y<br />C<br />C<br />Z‘<br />Z<br />D<br />Y<br />27<br />
  • 28. Real options decision making – Plan D?<br />A2<br />X or Y<br />B<br />X and Y<br />C<br />Z‘<br />D<br />Y<br />28<br />
  • 29. This is great<br />29<br />
  • 30. Set based design<br />30<br />
  • 31. Vehicle designs<br />20 entered in a competition<br />5 worked out in detail<br />4 claymodels made<br />2 prototypes made and revised<br />1 model chosen<br /> Design options<br />31<br />31<br />
  • 32. 80 types considered<br />narrowed down to 10 by testing<br />4 types after more extensive testing<br />1 selectedafterevalutation by computer simulations<br /> Type of engines<br />32<br />
  • 33. agile user stories<br />33<br />
  • 34. Test Driven Development<br />34<br />
  • 35. Dimensional planning – Dirt road<br />35<br />
  • 36. Dimensional planning – Cobblestone road<br />36<br />
  • 37. Dimensional planning – Highway<br />37<br />
  • 38. Why is dimensional planning valuable?<br />Amsterdam<br />highway<br />Heusden <br />38<br />
  • 39. Why is dimensional planning valuable?<br />Heusden (Netherlands)<br />Amsterdam<br />highway<br />Who is paying for this expensive mistake?<br />Heusden (Belgium)<br />Lets create a tighter contract so the customer does!<br />39<br />
  • 40. Why is dimensional planning valuable?<br />Heusden (Netherlands)<br />Amsterdam<br />Heusden (Belgium)<br />40<br />
  • 41. Why is dimensional planning valuable?<br />Heusden (Netherlands)<br />Amsterdam<br />Heusden (Belgium)<br />41<br />
  • 42. Why is dimensional planning valuable?<br />highway<br />Heusden (Netherlands)<br />Amsterdam<br />Heusden (Belgium)<br />42<br />
  • 43. Why is dimensional planning valuable?<br />Dimensional Planning vs Cost?<br />Amsterdam – Heusden Belgium : Dirt Road<br />Amsterdam – Heusden Netherlands: Dirt Road<br />Amsterdam – Heusden Netherlands: Cobblestone<br />VS<br />Amsterdam – Heusden Belgium Highway<br />+<br />Amsterdam – Heusden Netherlands ????<br />43<br />
  • 44. Why is dimensional planning valuable?<br />44<br />
  • 45. Story Mapping<br />45<br />
  • 46. Real options vs Change requests<br />46<br />
  • 47. Generate as much options as possible<br />Identify the conditions and expiration timing<br />Decide when to decide<br />Actively go for more info<br />Go for multiple options if needed<br />Wait as long as possible<br />Decide fast<br /> Get Real<br />47<br />
  • 48. Look back at your questions...<br />48<br />48<br />
  • 49. http://www.agilecoach.net/html/Real%20Options%20handout.pdf<br />The Toyota Way-Jeffrey Liker, pp 239-240: http://www.amazon.com/The-Toyota-Way-ebook/dp/B000SEGIVS<br />Koen van Exem: http://www.inxin.com/wiki/DimensionalPlanning<br />Software by Numbers: http://www.amazon.com/Software-Numbers-Low-Risk-High-Return-Development/dp/0131407287/<br />http://leanprocrastination.com/blog/2011/09/a-backlog-is-waste-fill-it-later/ <br />Resources<br />Jürgen De Smet &amp; Yves Hanoulle<br />49<br />

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