• Save
Real options
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Real options

on

  • 2,781 views

Versions:

Versions:

Version 2: Internal training
Version 4: LKBE 11

Statistics

Views

Total Views
2,781
Views on SlideShare
2,074
Embed Views
707

Actions

Likes
2
Downloads
0
Comments
0

6 Embeds 707

http://www.hanoulle.be 667
http://paper.li 32
http://tweetedtimes.com 3
http://feeds.feedburner.com 2
https://www.google.it 2
http://www.linkedin.com 1

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

CC Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike LicenseCC Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike LicenseCC Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike License

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Real options Real options Presentation Transcript

  • Real Options
    Jürgen De Smet & Yves Hanoulle
  • What do you know about Real options?
    Nothing
    A LOT
    Little bit
    2
  • What do you want to learn?
    3
    3
  • Up-front decisions
    Up-Front Decisions
    4
  • You don’t need to decide right now!
    5
  • Only decide when to decide
    6
  • Keep as many options open as possible
    7
  • Actively gather information until you have to decide
    8
  • You only commit when you must
    9
  • when you have a good reason to
    10
  • Why do you want to do that?
    11
  • Later you are smarter
    12
  • you can deal with risks
    13
  • a real option has a value
    14
  • a real option has experiation criteria
    15
  • a real option has a cost
    16
  • Common sense?
    17
  • Common sense for teams
    18
  • Real options decision making – Identify Options
    A
    B
    Options
    C
    19
  • Real options decision making – Identify Conditions
    A
    X or Y
    B
    conditions
    X and Y
    C
    Z
    20
  • Real options decision making – put on timeline
    A
    X or Y
    B
    X and Y
    C
    Z
    21
  • Real options decision making – Identify deadline
    A
    X or Y
    B
    X and Y
    C
    Z
    22
  • Real options decision making – Time to decide
    A
    X or Y
    B
    X and Y
    C
    Z
    first decision point
    23
  • Real options decision making – wait for first condition
    A
    ?
    X or Y
    B
    X and Y
    C
    Z
    24
  • Real options decision making – Refine options
    A2
    X or Y
    B
    X and Y
    C
    Z
    25
  • Real options decision making – Find new options
    A2
    X or Y
    B
    X and Y
    C
    Z
    D
    Y
    26
  • Real options decision making – Push back decision
    A2
    X or Y
    B
    X and Y
    C
    C
    Z‘
    Z
    D
    Y
    27
  • Real options decision making – Plan D?
    A2
    X or Y
    B
    X and Y
    C
    Z‘
    D
    Y
    28
  • This is great
    29
  • Set based design
    30
  • Vehicle designs
    20 entered in a competition
    5 worked out in detail
    4 claymodels made
    2 prototypes made and revised
    1 model chosen
    Design options
    31
    31
  • 80 types considered
    narrowed down to 10 by testing
    4 types after more extensive testing
    1 selectedafterevalutation by computer simulations
    Type of engines
    32
  • agile user stories
    33
  • Test Driven Development
    34
  • Dimensional planning – Dirt road
    35
  • Dimensional planning – Cobblestone road
    36
  • Dimensional planning – Highway
    37
  • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
    Amsterdam
    highway
    Heusden
    38
  • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
    Heusden (Netherlands)
    Amsterdam
    highway
    Who is paying for this expensive mistake?
    Heusden (Belgium)
    Lets create a tighter contract so the customer does!
    39
  • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
    Heusden (Netherlands)
    Amsterdam
    Heusden (Belgium)
    40
  • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
    Heusden (Netherlands)
    Amsterdam
    Heusden (Belgium)
    41
  • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
    highway
    Heusden (Netherlands)
    Amsterdam
    Heusden (Belgium)
    42
  • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
    Dimensional Planning vs Cost?
    Amsterdam – Heusden Belgium : Dirt Road
    Amsterdam – Heusden Netherlands: Dirt Road
    Amsterdam – Heusden Netherlands: Cobblestone
    VS
    Amsterdam – Heusden Belgium Highway
    +
    Amsterdam – Heusden Netherlands ????
    43
  • Why is dimensional planning valuable?
    44
  • Story Mapping
    45
  • Real options vs Change requests
    46
  • Generate as much options as possible
    Identify the conditions and expiration timing
    Decide when to decide
    Actively go for more info
    Go for multiple options if needed
    Wait as long as possible
    Decide fast
    Get Real
    47
  • Look back at your questions...
    48
    48
  • http://www.agilecoach.net/html/Real%20Options%20handout.pdf
    The Toyota Way-Jeffrey Liker, pp 239-240: http://www.amazon.com/The-Toyota-Way-ebook/dp/B000SEGIVS
    Koen van Exem: http://www.inxin.com/wiki/DimensionalPlanning
    Software by Numbers: http://www.amazon.com/Software-Numbers-Low-Risk-High-Return-Development/dp/0131407287/
    http://leanprocrastination.com/blog/2011/09/a-backlog-is-waste-fill-it-later/ 
    Resources
    Jürgen De Smet & Yves Hanoulle
    49