International Conference on the Socio-
Economic Dimensions of the Syrian Conflict:
Impact of Syrian Crisis on Jordan
Yusuf...
1
₋ Introduction
₋ Estimated Costs
₋ FDI
₋ Foreign Grants
₋ Remittances
₋ Unemployment
₋ Trade Balance
₋ Tourism Revenues
...
Introduction
• Jordan Population: Almost 7 million, with 850,000
living overseas;
• Registered Syrian Refugees 550,000 (5 ...
4
Estimated Costs
Cost of hosting Syrian refugees exceeded JD 590 m in 18 months.
Cost in 2nd half of 2011 reached JD 140 ...
4
1,984
2,513
1,859
2,006
1,713
1,172
1,046
996
27%
-26%
8%
-15%
-32%
-11% -5%
-40.00%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00...
6
Foreign Grants and Loans (2000-2012)
Jordan has been increasingly receiving aid but not
simply due to refugees
Year Gran...
3
1,326
1,532
2,123
2,242
2,214
2,247
2,152
2,230
3%
15%
39%
6%
-1%
1%
-4%
4%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20....
5
Unemployment (2000-2012)
Unemployment did not increase in
2012, unemployment in 1st Qtr 2013 was 12.8%
13.7
14.7
15.3
14...
6
Trade Balance (2005-2012)
-3,556
-3,585
-4,574
-5,084
-4,449
-4,824
-6,262 -7,449
48%
1%
28%
11%
-13%
8%
30%
19%
-20.00%...
7
Tourism Revenues
Year Tourism Revenues
2011 US$ 3 bn
2012 US$3.5 bn, a 15.3 % increase
2013
(first 5 months)
US$1.34 bn,...
• Real estate trading in Jordan reached about JD2.75 billion during the
first five months of the year 2013, a 30% increase...
Political Impact
• Reduced Demonstrations
• Lowered expectations from reform
• Return to slow if any political and economi...
2
8% 8% 8%
7%
5%
2%
3% 3%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2...
The Score Card
10
Factor + - Comment
Estimated Costs X
FDI X
Foreign aid X
Remittances - - Ambiguous
Unemployment X
Trade ...
Conclusion:
1. Situation is still evolving vis. Jordan
2. Plans must be put in place to make the refugees
productive and b...
16
Thank You
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The Impact of Syrian refugee Crisis on Jordan July 2013

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  • Sources: - Alghad Minister of Interior interview, July 2 2013 - Jordan Times “Syrian refugees ‘cost Jordan JD590 million up to last November” , Jan 29 2013
  • Sources: - Study by Social and Economic Council- Jordan Times “Syrian refugees ‘cost Jordan JD590 million up to last November” , Jan 29 2013
  • Source: - Data, www.cbj.gov.jo, 2012 - Statement of CEO of JIB, https://www.google.jo/url?sa=f&rct=j&url=http://www.qatarchronicle.com/happenings/7251/jordan-attracting-syrian- investments/&q=&esrc=s&ei=vo7SUcPhPOiM7QbUhoCQCg&usg=AFQjCNH53njBZexRULRfIuM8kzGJskDZkw
  • Source: www.mop.gov.jo
  • Source:Data, www.cbj.gov.jo, 2012
  • Source: Data, www.cbj.gov.jo, 2012
  • Source:Data, www.cbj.gov.jo, 2012
  • Source: Mubasher.Info “ 2.75 مليار دينار حجم التداول في سوق العقار في الأردن منذ بداية العام” Jun 5 2013, http://www.mubasher.info/ASE/news
  • Source: Data, www.cbj.gov.jo, 2012
  • The Impact of Syrian refugee Crisis on Jordan July 2013

    1. 1. International Conference on the Socio- Economic Dimensions of the Syrian Conflict: Impact of Syrian Crisis on Jordan Yusuf Mansur, PhD 4 July 2013
    2. 2. 1 ₋ Introduction ₋ Estimated Costs ₋ FDI ₋ Foreign Grants ₋ Remittances ₋ Unemployment ₋ Trade Balance ₋ Tourism Revenues ₋ Real Estate Trading ₋ Political Impact ₋ Real GDP Growth ₋ The Score Card Outline:
    3. 3. Introduction • Jordan Population: Almost 7 million, with 850,000 living overseas; • Registered Syrian Refugees 550,000 (5 March 2011 until now); Zaatari Camp has 178,000 refugees, Mrajeeb Al-Fhood Camp has 4,600 refugees; • 450,000 arrived during 2006-2011 • UN officials expect the number of refugees to surpass 1.3 million by the end of this year 3 Costs???
    4. 4. 4 Estimated Costs Cost of hosting Syrian refugees exceeded JD 590 m in 18 months. Cost in 2nd half of 2011 reached JD 140 m, while in the first 11 months of 2012 the cost was JD450 m • Cost of hosting one refugee is estimated at JD2,500 a year • More than 29,000 Syrian children joined public schools between 2011 and 2012, the cost to the Kingdom was over JD14 m • Cost of medical care provided to refugees was around JD24.2m • Cost of providing Syrians with subsidized energy products is over JD51 m • Cost of security and civil defense services is JD 49 m • Cost of infrastructural services to refugees is JD 25 m • 38,000 jobs were given to Syrian refugees Source: Study by the Economic and Social Council, Jordan Other impacts????
    5. 5. 4 1,984 2,513 1,859 2,006 1,713 1,172 1,046 996 27% -26% 8% -15% -32% -11% -5% -40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 0.00 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 FDI (JD millions) FDI (%) Foreign Direct Investment (2005-2012) • Jan-May 2013, Syrians came second after Jordanians in terms of registered capital, followed by Iraqi nationals • It is estimated the Syrian investments in Jordan will reach US$1 bn • A total of 388 firms registered in Jordan in 2012, up from 113 in 2011
    6. 6. 6 Foreign Grants and Loans (2000-2012) Jordan has been increasingly receiving aid but not simply due to refugees Year Grants Loans Total 2010 802.6 2011 519.2 2012 2160 Aid in JD millions
    7. 7. 3 1,326 1,532 2,123 2,242 2,214 2,247 2,152 2,230 3% 15% 39% 6% -1% 1% -4% 4% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Remittance Receipts (million JD) Remittances Growth Rate(%) Remittances (2005-2012) Remittances increased in 2012 after a lull in 2011
    8. 8. 5 Unemployment (2000-2012) Unemployment did not increase in 2012, unemployment in 1st Qtr 2013 was 12.8% 13.7 14.7 15.3 14.4 14.7 14.8 14.1 13.1 12.7 12.9 12.5 12.9 12.2 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Unemployment Rate (%)
    9. 9. 6 Trade Balance (2005-2012) -3,556 -3,585 -4,574 -5,084 -4,449 -4,824 -6,262 -7,449 48% 1% 28% 11% -13% 8% 30% 19% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% -8000 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Trade Balance net million JD Trade Balance (%) Trade balance as % of GDP and in JD million 40% of goods were transported via Syria; Iraq as an alternative route was considered Increased shipping through Aqaba instead of Tartous resulted
    10. 10. 7 Tourism Revenues Year Tourism Revenues 2011 US$ 3 bn 2012 US$3.5 bn, a 15.3 % increase 2013 (first 5 months) US$1.34 bn, a 3.5% decline from same period 2012 Some of the increase in 2012 was due to: 1. Libyan medical tourism; 2. Arab tourists staying in Jordan instead of going to competitor tourism destinations such as Syria and Lebanon; and 3. Syrian long term visitors
    11. 11. • Real estate trading in Jordan reached about JD2.75 billion during the first five months of the year 2013, a 30% increase compared with the same period last year • Sales of properties by non-Jordanians dropped by 8% during the first 5 months of 2013, compared with the same period of 2012: JD113.3 m in apartments and JD 59.9 m in land • Non-Jordanian investors ( 1st five months 2013) in real state were: 11 Real Estate Trading Rank Nationality % JD Million 1 Iraqis 53 91.5 2 Saudis 15 26.1 3 US 5.4 9.3 4 Syrians 4.7 8.1
    12. 12. Political Impact • Reduced Demonstrations • Lowered expectations from reform • Return to slow if any political and economic reform • IMF reform programme took off 9
    13. 13. 2 8% 8% 8% 7% 5% 2% 3% 3% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Real GDP Growth (%) Real GDP Growth (2005-2012) Decreased growth started before Arab spring
    14. 14. The Score Card 10 Factor + - Comment Estimated Costs X FDI X Foreign aid X Remittances - - Ambiguous Unemployment X Trade Balance - - Oil/energy is a heavy factor Tourism Revenues X Real Estate Trading X Political Impact/Stability X Real GDP Growth X Total 6 2 Mostly positive In Summary
    15. 15. Conclusion: 1. Situation is still evolving vis. Jordan 2. Plans must be put in place to make the refugees productive and benefit the economy 3. Aid agencies need to view integration not incarceration 4. Politicians must take care not to demonize refugees or make them the source of all economic ills 15
    16. 16. 16 Thank You

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