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Status of the LED Industry 2013 Report by Yole Developpement

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  • 1. Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. © 2013 1 75 cours Emile Zola, F-69001 Lyon-Villeurbanne, France Tel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83 Web: http://www.yole.fr Status of the LED Industry Market Analysis, Industry Status, Players and Main Applications for LEDs SAMPLE
  • 2. Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. © 2013 2 Table of Content & Objectives
  • 3. © 2013 3 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Table of Content (1/7) • Objectives of the Report (P9) • About the Author of the Report (P10) • Company Index (P11) • Glossary (P12) • What we Saw & What we Missed (P13) • Executive Summary (P15) • Packaged LED Forecast (P44) – Introduction to High Brightness LEDs – Segmentation of High Brightness LEDs – Overview of LED Applications – History of LED Industry – Packaged LED Revenue Forecast by Application – Packaged LED Volume Forecast by Application – LED Adoption Rate (2013 vs. 2020) – Recent Trends – Packaged LED Price Trends – LED Supply by Region – LED Reactors • Geographic Trends • Impact on Global Demand • GaN Reactor Capacity vs. Demand – Conclusion • Display Applications (P66) – Introduction – Small Size Displays: Cell Phones • History & Trends • Alternative Technologies: Organic LED (OLED) – Comparison with LED – Main Players – Example of New Devices – Penetration Rate in Cell Phone • Packaged LED Revenue from Cell Phones • Packaged LED Volume from Cell Phones – Medium Size Displays: Notebooks & Tablets • History & Trends • Focus on Tablets • Focus on Netbooks • Focus on Notebooks • Penetration Rate of Backlight Technologies • Alternative Technologies: Organic LED (OLED) • Packaged LED Revenue from Notebooks and Tablets • Packaged LED Volume from Notebooks and Tablets – Large Size Displays: LCD TVs and Monitors • History & Trends • Market Drivers • Energy Requirements • LED Backlighting Supply Chain
  • 4. © 2013 4 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Table of Content (2/7) • Display Applications (P66) – Large Size Displays: LCD TVs and Monitors • Backlight Designs – Standard Direct Backlight – Edge Lit Backlight – Low Cost Direct Backlight • LED Backlight Color Gamut • Local Dimming with LED TVs • 2012 Market Highlights – Overview – Geographical Analysis – Toward Low Cost Direct Backlight Design – Toward Lower Brightness – Toward Increased Size of TVs – Toward Higher Resolution: 4K2K • Backlight Design Trends • LED Package and Chip Surface Trends • Alternative Technologies – Crystal LED (CLED) – Organic LED (OLED) – Quantum Dots • LED Adoption Trends • Packaged LED Revenue from LCD TVs and Monitors • Conclusion – Other Display Applications • Personal Navigation Device (PND) • Portable DVDs • Digital Cameras and Camcorders • Portable Multimedia Players (PMP) • Portable Game Consoles • Picture Frames • Portable Devices - The Blurred Frontier • Packaged LED Revenue from “Other Displays” • Packaged LED Volume from “Other Displays” • Sign and Outdoor Display Applications (P149) – Overview – Details on Large Outdoor Displays – Details on Signals / Emergency Lights – Packaged LED Revenue from Signs and Outdoor Displays – Packaged LED Volume from Signs and Outdoor Displays • Projector Applications (P156) – Overview of Technologies – Table Top Projectors – Ultra Portable and Pico Projectors – Example of Teardowns – LED Penetration Rate – Packaged LED Revenue from Projectors – Packaged LED Volume from Projectors
  • 5. © 2013 5 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Table of Content (3/7) • Personal Lighting Applications (P170) – Overview – Packaged LED Revenue and Volume from Personal Lighting • Automotive Lighting Applications (P173) – Introduction – History of LEDs Integration – Drivers for LEDs Integration – Focus on Interior Lighting – Focus on Exterior Lighting – Challenges – Trends • Interior Lighting • Exterior Lighting • Industry • Potential Evolution of Industry Structure – Penetration Rate of LEDs – Alternative Technology: OLED • Applications • Drivers • Challenges • Penetration Rate – Packaged LED Revenue from Automotive Lighting – Packaged LED Volume from Automotive Lighting – Conclusion • General Lighting Applications - Lumen Consumption Forecast (P205) – Introduction – International Energy Agency (IEA) Model – Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) Model – Model Developed in the Report – Importance of Light Consumption Model – Conclusion • General Lighting Applications - Driving Forces, Status and Trends (P213) – Introduction • Market Segments & Associated Characteristics • Overview of Light Source Technologies • Standard Light Bulb Classification • 2012 Lighting Use • 2012 Lamp Market Volume • Lighting Use vs. Lamp Market Volume – Supply and Value Chain • LED Lighting Supply Chain – Overview – Focus on LED Module and LED Light Engine – Associated Players • LED Lighting Value Chain – Trends in Profit Distribution – Traditional Lighting Players Strategy – LED Players Strategy • Conclusion
  • 6. © 2013 6 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Table of Content (4/7) • General Lighting Applications - Driving Forces, Status and Trends (P213) – Drivers & Challenges • Benefits & Promises of LEDs • Drivers for Adoption: Upfront Cost and Total Cost of Ownership • The Path to Cost Reduction • Cost Structure of Lighting Products • Cost Structure of Packaged LED – Cost Breakdown of CREE XLamp XB-D – Cost Breakdown of Lumileds Luxeon S – Cost Breakdown of Oslon SSL (1mm² Die) – Analysis • Cost Reduction Opportunities – The Cost of Yields – Key Technologies & Research Areas • Main Technical Challenges • Lifetime & Reliability • Color Rendering & Consistency – Regulations, Lifecycle and Standards • Regulations – Ban / Phase Out of Incandescent Lamps – CFL and Toxicity – Potential Impact of Subsidies • Lifecycle Analysis • Standards • Conclusion – Future Trends • Smart Lighting • Low Voltage DC Power – Alternative Technologies • Plasma Induction Lighting • Laser Lighting • OLED Lighting – Introduction – Advantages – Challenges – Market Perspective – Technical Requirements & Adoption Paradigms – Market Access Roadmap – Conclusion – Conclusion • General Lighting Applications - Design Trends (P326) – Introduction – Major Trends and Evolutions – Chip On Board (COB) – Middle Power LEDs – Ac / HV LEDs – Small Die vs. Large Die – System Design Choice – Design Considerations – Conclusion
  • 7. © 2013 7 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Table of Content (5/7) • General Lighting Applications - Market Segment Review (P347) – Residential Lighting • General Description • Incumbent Technologies • Lamp Replacement vs. Dedicated SSL Modules • Example of LED Lamps • Cost Structure of LED Lamps – Cost Breakdown of Philips L-Prize LED Lamp – Cost Breakdown of TESS T-6C007W LED Lamp • LED Lamp ASP – Overview – The $10 Bulb – The Path to $1 Bulb • LED Lamp Design • LEDs Integration Drivers • Adoption Trends • SWOT Analysis • LED Penetration Rate • LED Lamp Market Volume – Commercial Lighting • General Description • Incumbent Technologies • Tube Replacement • Dedicated SSL Modules • LEDs Integration: Drivers & Stoppers • Focus on Office Lighting – Commercial Lighting • Focus on High End Applications • Focus on Specialty Applications • SWOT Analysis • LED Penetration Rate • LED Lamp Market Volume – Industrial Lighting • General Description • Incumbent Technologies • Focus on High Bay Lighting • Focus on Agricultural Applications • SWOT Analysis • LED Penetration Rate • LED Lamp Market Volume – Outdoor Lighting • General Description • Incumbent Technologies • Market Segments • LEDs Integration Drivers • Route to Market in Outdoor Lighting Projects • Conventional Luminaire vs. LED Luminaire • Adoption Trends • Financing
  • 8. © 2013 8 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Table of Content (6/7) • General Lighting Applications - Market Segment Review (P347) – Outdoor Lighting • Focus on Road and Street Lighting – Introduction – Product Segmentation – Highway and Road Lighting Applications – Residential and Amenity Lighting Applications – Tunnel Lighting Applications • SWOT Analysis • LED Penetration Rate • LED Lamp Market Volume • General Lighting Applications - Analysis by Region (P428) – Lamp Market Volume - Split by Region – Trends per Region • Annual Sales of Lamps in Europe • Annual Sales of Lamps in North America • Annual Sales of Lamps in Asia • Annual Sales of Lamps in South America • Annual Sales of Lamps in MEA – Focus on Leading Countries • Overview of Leading Countries • Focus on Japan • Focus on Taiwan • Focus on China • Focus on USA • General Lighting Applications - Conclusion (P444) – Drivers for Adoption – Evolution of Socket Occupancy by Technology – Packaged LED Volume and Revenue for General Lighting Applications – A Declining Market • Merger and Acquisition in the LED Industry (P450) – Introduction – Details on Significant Deals (2010 to H1-2013) – Analysis – Conclusion • Chinese LED Industry (P460) – Overview • Introduction • Geographical Distribution of Chinese LED Players • Overcapacity: How it Has Happened? • Criticality of Intellectual Property • Analysis – Domestic Market Highlights – Trends • Consolidation • Focus on 2 Potential Winners (Sanan and ETi) • Partnership with Taiwanese Companies
  • 9. © 2013 9 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Table of Content (7/7) • Emerging LED Technologies (P483) – GaN-on-Si LEDs • Introduction • Benefits • Challenges • Conditions for Success • Status • Scenarios of Evolution • Potential New Business Models – GaN-on-GaN LEDs • Introduction • Benefits • Challenges • Applications • Status – Conclusion • General Conclusion (P504)
  • 10. © 2013 10 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Objectives of the Report • To understand LED applications (small size displays, large size displays, general lighting, automotive lighting…). • To understand LED markets (status, drivers, challenges…). • To evaluate market volume (Munits) and market size ($M): 2008 to 2020. • To understand LED industry (supply and value chain), player dynamics and future evolution • To evaluate emerging technologies (GaN-on-GaN LEDs and GaN-on-Si LEDs) • To evaluate competing technologies (OLEDs…)
  • 11. Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. © 2013 11 Extract
  • 12. © 2013 12 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Adoption Rate 2013 vs. 2020 Lighting Applications Display Applications
  • 13. © 2013 13 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Supply by Region 2010 to 2011: Entry of Taiwan and China • China’s improvement in product quality, coupled with gains in the domestic market, fueled the growth from XX% market share to XX% in one year. • Korean companies lost share in the slowing market, even though they were the most aggressive in increasing capacity during the ramp-up in 2010. • The Japanese LED business has trended down…. However, Nichia and Toyoda Gosei were the major beneficiaries of the boom in tablet computers. In 2012, Japan, Korea and USA / Europe were still leading the market with respectively XX%, XX% and XX% market shares (in terms of capacity)!!! 2011 to 2012: Regional Supply Stabilization • China has still continued to take market share to other region however at a lower growth. • No real modification for USA, Europe and Japan. • Korea gain market share based on strong growth of Samsung (+ ~XX% packaged LED revenue compared to 2011). • Taiwan loose market share to the profit of China and Korea.
  • 14. © 2013 14 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. GaN Reactor Capacity Geographic Trends (2/2) • Large increase in Taiwan and Korea in late 2009 and 2010 driven by LCD display market. • Phenomenal increase in China in 2010-2012: – Anticipation of Solid-State Lighting Market. – Government subsidies to build-up epitaxy capacity in the mainland (estimated total > US$ 1.5 billion). As of Q3-2013, there were ~ 110 companies with epitaxy capacity… However, many will disappear!!! Current estimated worldwide capacity (Q4 2013) = XX million TIE per month 2012-2015: Consolidations… JP: Toyoda Gosei + Showa Denko TW: Epistar + Huga… + CMO (?) CN: Initially, XX Epi Fab projects in China (XX companies): XX operating… Cross Straight: Sanan + Formosa Remark: Those capacities are estimated based on the number of reactors shipped per region. We believe that a significant fraction of the reactors shipped to China in 2011 and 2012 have actually not been installed. In addition, about 30% of the capacity installed in China stemmed from foreign based (Taiwan, Korea) companies or JV with Chinese entities.
  • 15. © 2013 15 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Reactors GaN Reactor Capacity vs. Demand • During the 2010 investment cycle, most LED makers overestimated the demand potential for large LCD displays (…). Combined with the vast number of reactors shipped in China following the subsidies bubble, the market is now in a situation of significant overcapacity which will lead to a 12 month digestion period with very low volume of orders for MOCVD equipment makers. Current MOCVD utilization rate is 68% → Excess capacity will be absorbed by middle of 2014.
  • 16. © 2013 16 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Packaged LED Price Trends • Price erosion is strong since 2010 on all types of packages, despite constant improvement in terms of performance (lumen per watt). This is likely to continue as new entrants from China increasingly compete with established vendors to capture market share in general lighting applications, and as rooms for innovation decrease each year. • In mature applications like cell phones, this strong price decline affects margins and does not generate additional volume since the applications are essentially saturated. High-power “1W – single chip” Middle Power “5630” / “6030” Low Power Side View (0.4 to 0.8t) Middle / High Power “7030”
  • 17. © 2013 17 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. TV Applications - Recent Trends Toward Higher Resolution - 4K2K (1/2) • 4K2K (also called 4K or 4K UHD) is a digital video format representing a resolution of 3840 pixels × 2160 lines (8.3 megapixels, aspect ratio 16:9). – “4K“ refers to the horizontal resolution (which are on the order of 4,000 pixels) and the term “2K” refers to the vertical resolution (which are on the order of 2,000 lines). – Today’s full HD TVs represent a resolution of 1920 pixels x 1080 lines (nearly megapixels). • In the 3 past years, developments toward this technology have strongly increased and accelerate time to market. In 2012, Toshiba, LG and Sony have led the way to commercialize this technology with products such as the Toshiba’s 55ZL2, the LG's 84-inch 84LM960V and the Sony's 84-inch 84X9005. And, in 2013, it seems that more products will come from Samsung, Panasonic (…). – In 4K2K TVs adoption, LCD panel suppliers will play a key role as provider of innovative cost-effective technology solutions. Specifically, they will have to focus on leveraging new technologies: high-transmittance cell design, high-efficiency backlight units (…). In this field, Innolux Corporation seems to be the most aggressive player with the development of a full line-up of panels in the 39" to 85" range. • At the moment, such products are high-end models with very high ASP. – For example, cost of the LG's 84-inch 84LM960V and the Sony's 84” 84X9005 are ~ $20,000. In summer 2013, Sony should launch 55” model with ASP starting at ~ $5,000. • Also, as of today, there is no 4K native content available. In recent years, TV manufacturers have promoted several technologies to excite consumer interest: 3D TV, Smart TV, OLED TV… In 2013, it seems that it is 4K2K! Sony's 84-inch 84X9005 Source: Sony Toshiba’s 55ZL2 Source: Toshiba
  • 18. © 2013 18 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Package and Chip Surface Trends in TV Applications • Due to LED performance and backlight design improvements, both the average number of packages and the total chip surface will keep decreasing. • However this trend will slow down due to: – Average display size initially increasing until reaching limit related to the typical size of a living room. – LED efficiency and brightness reaching a plateau. – Light guide technology reaching its limit in its ability to evenly spread the light of a decreasing number of LED while increasing brightness without hot spots.
  • 19. © 2013 19 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. TV Applications - Alternative Technologies Quantum Dots - Overview (1/2) • Quantum dots are small semiconductor particles that confine the electron-hole pair in all spatial dimensions. Dimension • 3nm to 12nm diameter. Each dot contains less than 35 pairs of atoms leading to 100 - 1,000 electrons. Benefits • Composition and size can be tuned to absorb and / or emit specific wavelengths (e.g.: CdSe QD emission can be tuned between 500nm and 650nm). • Narrowband emission improves color saturation and limits re- absorption. Better control of absorption / emission spectra allows reduction of re-absorption and provides higher system efficiency. • Reduced light scattering (dimension << wavelength). Challenges • Manufacturability (control size, stability, large batches → Cost remains high). • Thermal quenching and non reversible degradation at high temperature (100 - 130°C). • Most compositions contain Cadmium → Need development of Cadmium-Free Quantum Dots (CFQD). Structure and functioning of Quantum Dots Source: 3M QD-based display Source: Sony Absorption (in black) and emission of QD phosphor: Absence of re-absorption compared to YAG:Ce Source: NN Crystal
  • 20. © 2013 20 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Automotive Lighting - Exterior Lighting Overview • Main drivers: – Long Lifetime; – High efficiency / Low energy consumption; – Fast response; – Design flexibility (color saturation, size, weight); – Regulation. • While penetration rate of LEDs in CHMSL (> XX% - GaAs based LEDs) and in RCL (> XX% - GaAs based LEDs) is ramping up… – Adoption for RCL and CHMSL will continue to grow due to decrease of LED cost and increase of performance. • … The technology is still not widely implemented in DRL (~XX% - Sapphire based LEDs) and head lamps (< XX% - Sapphire based LEDs) due to associated cost and / or insufficient performance (compared to traditional technologies). – Adoption for DRL is still low, but should increase rapidly after some regions like Europe have mandated since 2012 that all new small vehicles and light trucks to use DRL in daytime. – Adoption for head lamps will be limited in the short term due to cost, design, thermal management (…) challenges compared to HID Xenon. • Today, design and style are the main driver for the integration of LEDs. While adoption of LEDs for CHMSL and RCL is in progress, current LEDs cost and performance do not match with automakers specifications for DRL and head lamps….
  • 21. © 2013 21 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Automotive Lighting - Trends Exterior Lighting • High Beam Assistant (HBA) is part of what is called Advanced Front lighting System (AFS). And several other AFS features are also under development such as target lighting (spot light) which give warning in the driver’s immediate line of vision (however it can cause glare to pedestrians). • Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS), Full Adaptive Front Lighting System (FAFLS) and several other features are also under development. • At long term, some manufacturers envision connected cars based on intelligent lighting systems that could communicate through light signal: Light Fidelity (LiFi) technology. Spotlight function Full Adaptive Front Lighting System (FAFLS) LiFi description
  • 22. © 2013 22 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Packaged LED Volume from Automotive Lighting
  • 23. © 2013 23 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Executive Summary General Lighting - Market Segments Sector / Segment Example Main Drivers / Characteristics Residential Task lamps, mood lighting, coves (…) • Upfront cost • Light quality • Environment • Short duty cycle (typ.: 3 hours) Commercial Display cases, stores, malls, hotels, complexes, offices (…) • Total Cost of Ownership • Light quality • Environment • Long duty cycles (typ.: 11 hours) Architectural1 Bridges, facades, monuments (…) • Aesthetic • Total Cost of Ownership • Environment • Long duty cycles (typ.: 11 hours) Industrial Manufacturing sites, fabs (…) • Total Cost of Ownership • Light quality • Environment • Long duty cycles (typ.: 11 hours) Outdoor Stationary Street lights, tunnels, garages (…) • Total Cost of Ownership • Environment • Long duty cycles (typ.: 12 hours) A wide variety of technical requirements: Application Total Light Output (Lumen) Task lamp < 250 Ambiance lighting 250 - 1,000 Outdoor lighting 2,000 - 25,000 Industrial lighting Up to 50,000 2 different LED adoption paradigms: • LED bulb replacements (Replacement / Retrofit) vs. • Dedicated LED solutions (New Installations) 1: Architectural lighting will be integrated to commercial lighting hereon. A highly fragmented application market with different drivers for adoption:
  • 24. © 2013 24 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Lighting Value Chain Trends in Profit Distribution - Overview Based on the model “LED for Display”, standardization should also occur for LEDs used in General Lighting applications inducing manufacturing commoditization and value transfer along the supply chain. Material / Substrate Die / Chip Packaged LED Module Lamp / Light Engine System / Solution Luminaire • New Asian players (China and Taiwan) have entered the business, especially for low- and middle-end applications • Despite commoditization, profit can stay high for high-end applications • Adding functionality should increase margins • Add functionality • New designing of fixtures and improvement of system size should increase margin • Commoditization of chip manufacturing • Professionalization of the epitaxy process has started 1 Commoditization/ Standardization ProfitDistribution &ValueTransfer 2 Value go upstream on the value chain → To LED module and LED-based lighting products levels XX% XX%XX%XX% XX% XX% Today (As of Q3-2013) In the Future↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↓ = Decrease ↑ = Increase
  • 25. © 2013 25 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Lighting Value Chain Traditional Lighting Players Strategy - Osram • Value chain positioning: • Regional positioning: – North America → Acquisition of Motorola Lighting. – EMEA → Acquisition of SVET. – Asia / Pacific → Acquisition of Felco & Joint venture with Toshiba Lighting & Joint venture with SunnyWorld. Since 2000, Osram has acquired 7 companies with the objective to enhance its position on the value chain and in specific regions. SSL Sources and Modules (Die / Package LED / Module) Electronics and Controls (Lamp / Light Engine) Solutions and Services (Luminaire / System / Solution) 2007 • SunnyWorld 2004 • Felco • SVET 2001 • Osram OS (SSL) 2011 • Siteco Lighting 2011 • Encelium Technologies • Siteco Lighting 2009 • Traxon Technologies 2000 • Motorola Lighting • Toshiba Lighting (JV)
  • 26. © 2013 26 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Executive Summary General Lighting - Drivers for Adoption - Upfront Cost Currently, upfront cost of LED-based lighting is still too high to fully compete with incumbent technologies. → Real need to reduce the $/lumen! 1. Depending on geographical region and availability of subsidies/rebates- Price listed is worldwide average Incandescent < $1 Fluorescent ~ $3-$5 LED ~ $10 - $501 Comparison of Average Selling Price of different lamp Technologies All sources are ~ 800 lumens, warm White and tier-1 brand only
  • 27. © 2013 27 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. The Path to Cost Reduction Consensus → Need for a cost reduction by a factor x6 Manufacturing Efficiency • Higher equipment throughput and yields • Economy of scale LED Performance • Higher efficiency (lumen/W) • More light per chip (driving current) COST = $ LUMEN x3 x2
  • 28. © 2013 28 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Main Technical Challenges And for LED lighting product manufacturers, new testing processes are mandatories during design, development, industrialization and commercialization phases. Source: Piseo
  • 29. © 2013 29 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Lamp Design Performance is basic… Design could be a strong competition point.
  • 30. © 2013 30 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Focus on Road and Street Lighting Application - Highway and Road Lighting • LED lighting adoption in functional Road Lighting was initially hampered by technology limitations in terms of light output. The bulk of the application is in the range of 150W - 250W in HPS (i.e. between 17,000 lm - 33,000 lm). Only recently have manufacturers started coming up with competitive solutions that offer attractive payback (i.e. < 5 years). • For this reason, LED Road Lighting solutions have mainly been applied to residential streets and secondary/main roads. Conflict areas (i.e. road interchanges, roundabouts) and major highways remain lit with conventional solutions, even for new installations: typically 400W - 2000W floodlights, until LED technology offers economically feasible substitutes. • Manufacturers foresee higher lumen output solutions being available by 2015, eventually replacing today’s 400W - 600W HPS solutions. • Equivalences to higher wattages (1,000W - 2,000W HID) are expected by 2018. Philips Speedstar: Up to 26,906lm GE ERS4: Up to 21,900lm Schreder Teceo2: Up to 30,800lm Cree LEDWay SLM: Up to 23,652lm
  • 31. © 2013 31 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Alternative Technologies OLED - To Higher Efficiency and New Designs with OLED Evolution of Light Sources for Lighting → Toward Solid State Lighting (SSL) Incandescent Linear Fluorescent Compact Fluorescent LED Very low efficiency Poor light quality Moderate efficiency - Mercury content Glare and heating issues due to point light Source Green = Advantages Red = Drawbacks → Toward Solid State Lighting (SSL) Flexible OLED Transparent OLED OLED Area light - Large design choice “Invisible” when turned off Huge design choice - Potential for low cost manufacturing Evolution of Light Sources for Lighting
  • 32. © 2013 32 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Annual Sales of Lamps in Asia (Volume) Split by Technology Based on global population growth and strong urbanization (mostly in China and India), the volume of the Asian lamp market will grow, accelerated by LED penetration, until 2013 before declining.
  • 33. © 2013 33 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. GaN-on-Si LEDs Scenarios of Evolution (2/2) • LED-on-Si might be better suited for certain types of LED than others. In addition, the break-even point and incentives to adopt Silicon substrate can vary widely, depending on each individual LED maker’s situation: Highlight: • A single large CMOS fab could supply worldwide LED demand for years to come. As a result, massive adoption of LED-on-Si would dramatically change the landscape of the front-end LED industry. It would facilitate the emergence of new or smaller players who currently don’t have access to the capital needed to become major players in the industry, and could also entice vertically integrated LED makers to abandon in-house chip manufacturing. Start-up or LED company willing to scale-up capacity without massive CAPEX  “Fabless” model Large Semiconductor company with existing CMOS capacity willing to enter the LED Market Tier-1 LED Maker with advanced GaN-on- Sapphire technology, and large installed capacity
  • 34. © 2013 34 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Chinese LED Industry Geographical Distribution of Chinese LED Players Chinese LED industry is distributed through 7 main bases… Each one specialized on a specific level of the supply chain (chip players, packaging players, application players). Source: Gao Hua Securities Research and SEMI China LED industrial base General Lighting, Automotive Lighting, Backlighting …
  • 35. Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. © 2013 35 About Yole Développement and LED Activity 75 cours Emile Zola, F-69001 Lyon-Villeurbanne, France Tel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83 Web: http://www.yole.fr
  • 36. © 2013 36 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Yole Développement Field of Research Activity • Yole Développement is a market research and strategy consulting company founded in 1998. • We are involved in the following areas: • Our research is performed by in-house personnel conducting open-ended discussions based on interviews. – 32 full time analysts with technical and marketing degrees. – Primary research including over 3,500 interviews per year. Photovoltaic Microfluidic & Medical Technologies MEMS & Image Sensors Wafer & Substrates Power Electronics LED, OLED and Laser Diode Advanced Packaging
  • 37. © 2013 37 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Yole Développement All Around the World We are present in Europe, North America and Asia. Lyon, France - Headquarter 40% of our activity is in Europe 30% of our activity is in Asia 30% of our activity is in North America Yole Inc. Yole Japan Yole Paris System Plus Consulting
  • 38. © 2013 38 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Yole Développement Mission Statement - Knowledge Based Company • Help our customers to develop their business through specific analysis and reports, by providing: – Accurate market data, market segmentation and marketing analysis. – Technical evaluation, technology cost and Cost Of Ownership (COO) analysis. – Patent portfolio analysis. – Freedom to operate analysis. – Strategic analysis to enhance company and business unit performances. – Strategic development support (growth opportunities identification, M&A support, investors identification…). – Advertising opportunities in Yole’s magazines, via webinar, specific events… • Help our customers to get operational results from our actions.
  • 39. © 2013 39 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Yole Développement Supporting the Entire Value Chain Yole consultants provide Market Analysis, Technology Evaluation and Business Plan Assessment for customers along the entire value chain.
  • 40. © 2013 40 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Activity Yole is Active All Over the LED Value Chain Substrate Front-end Level 0 - Epitaxy • Nucleation layer • N-type layer • Active layers (MQW) • P-type layer SiC / Sapphire / Silicon / Bulk GaN / Composite substrates LED epi-wafer Mesa LED structure Flip Chip LED structure Vertical LED structure LED dies-on-waferLED dies Back-End level 1 - Packaging • Die Attach & Interconnections • Phosphors • Encapsulation & optics • Testing & Binning Packaged LED Front-end Level 1 - Device Making • Inspection • Masking / Lithography • Etching • Metallization / Contacts / Mirrors Back-End Level 0 - Packaging • Substrate separation & Bonding • Die singulation • Testing & Binning
  • 41. © 2013 41 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Activity About Yole’s LED Analyst Team Dr. Philippe ROUSSEL - Business Unit Manager Philippe ROUSSEL holds a Ph-D in Integrated Electronics Systems from the National Institute of Applied Sciences of Lyon (INSA - France). He joined Yole Développement in 1998 and is Business Unit Manager of the Compound Semiconductors, Photovoltaic, LED and Power Electronics department. Dr. Eric VIREY - Senior Analyst Eric VIREY holds a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (INPG - France). In the last 12 years, he has held various R&D, engineering, manufacturing and marketing positions with Saint-Gobain. Most recently, he was Market Manager at Saint-Gobain Crystals, in charge of Sapphire and Optoelectronic products. Pars MUKISH - Senior Analyst Pars MUKISH holds a master degree in Materials Science & Polymers and a master degree in Innovation & Technology Management (EM Lyon - France). He works at Yole Développement as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of LED and Lighting Technologies to carry out technical, economic and marketing analysis. Previously, he has worked as Marketing and Techno-Economic Analyst for several years at the CEA.
  • 42. © 2013 42 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Activity 2013 - 2014 LED Report (Latest & To Come) Status of the LED Industry © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Front End © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Packaging © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Phosphors IP Investigation © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Phosphors Market & Techno. Trends © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Substrates for LED © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. UV LED © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. OLED for Lighting © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED in Road and Street Lighting © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  • 43. © 2013 43 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Activity 2013 - 2014 LED Report (Latest & To Come) III - V Epitaxy © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED CoSim+ © 2012 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.