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Emerging Non-Volatile Memory Market and Technology Trends 2013 Report by Yole Developpement


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Emerging NVM enter niche memory markets; expected to reach $ 2B by 2018. Will NVM eventually replace DRAM and NAND? …

Emerging NVM enter niche memory markets; expected to reach $ 2B by 2018. Will NVM eventually replace DRAM and NAND?

- Overview of the semiconductor memory market
- Market forecasts on emerging non-volatile memory business (in units, US$, number of wafers, applications, technologies - FRAM, MRAM/STTRAM, PCM, RRAM)
- Understanding of the emerging non-volatile memory applications for five applications fields (Industrial & Transportation, Smart Card, Enterprise Storage, Mobile Phones, and Mass Storage)
- Emerging NVM technologies: status of development and roadmap
- Competitive landscape description and analysis

This Yole Développement report describes why and how emerging NVM (FRAM, MRAM/STTMRAM, PCM, RRAM) will be increasingly used in various markets: Industrial & Transportation, Enterprise Storage, Smart Card, Mobiles Phones and Mass Storage.
Until recently, only FRAM, PCM and MRAM were industrially produced and available in low-density chips to only a few players. Thus the market was quite limited and considerably smaller than the volatile DRAM and non-volatile Flash NAND dominant memory markets (which enjoyed combined revenues of $50B +in 2012).
However, in the next five years the scalability and chip density of those memories will be greatly improved and will spark many new applications, with the following NVM market drivers explained in detail in this report:
With the adoption of STT MRAM and PCMCache Memory, Enterprise Storage will be the largest NVM market . NVM will greatly improve the input/output performance of enterprise storage systems whose requirements will intensify with the growing need for web-based data supported by cloud servers.
Mobile Phones will increase its adoption of PCM as a substitute to flash NOR memory in MCP packages thanks to 1GB chips made available by Micron in 2012. Higher-density chips, expected in 2015, will allow access to smart phone applications that are quickly replacing entry-level phones. STTMRAM is expected to replace SRAM in SoC applications thanks to lower power consumption and better scalability.
Smart card MCU (microcontrollers) will likely adopt MRAM/STTMRAM and PCM as a substitute to embedded flash. Indeed, flash memory cell-size reduction is limited for the future. NVM could reduce the cell size by 50% and thus be more cost-competitive. Additional features like increased security, lower power consumption and higher endurance are also appealing NVM attributes.
Mass storage markets served by flash NAND could begin using 3D RRAM in 2017-2018, when 3D NAND will slow down its scalability as predicted by all of the main memory players. When this happens, a massive RRAM ramp-up will commence in the next decade that will replace NAND, if sufficient 3D RRAM cost-competiveness...
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  • 1. Emerging Non-Volatile Memories T EN EM PP O EL Everspin Micron EV Micron Adesto Samsung SK Hynix D LE Sample YO© 2013 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 2. Table of Contents (1/2)• Glossary • Industrial applications 98• Companies Cited in this Report – Industrial Applications Description• Market Research Scope and Methodology & definitions • Smart Card market 101 – Smart Card Application Description• Executive Summary 10 – Global Smart Card Forecast :10 B units for 2017• Acquisitions & Alliances : increasing flow of acquisitions and joint – Telecom SIM Card Market forecast and accessible market for emerging NVM developments on emerging NVM – Telecom SIM NFC Market T• Noteworthy News 2009 – 2012 24 – Government/ID card forecast EN – Smart Card supply chain• Standard memories market introduction 28 – Smart Card MCU market and players• NAND market overview 36 – Embedded Flash NOR current technology EM• DRAM market overview 46 – Main MCU smart card players : memory technologies and involvement in emerging NVM• Other “Niche” Memories overview 51 – Crocus Technology MLU (Magnetic Logic Unit)• Market Players Overview 61 PP – Smart Card Embedded memories technological roadmap of Key players• Emerging NVM overview 70 – Smartcard manufacturers – Emerging NVM segmentation – Conclusions on Smart Card application O – Density Evolution of Non Volatile Memories • Enterprise Storage applications 118 – Memories current position in 2012 – EL Enterprise Storage Application Description – Emerging NVM Market Forecast by Technologies From 2012-2018 (in $, in units, in – Infrastructure Servers applications are booming thanks to growing internet needs Nb of wafers 12” eq) – Cloud Data Centers Market is booming EV – Emerging NVM Strategy example : Hynix roadmap – Enterprise SSD market is booming – Emerging NVM roadmap : Cell size roadmap (stand alone devices) – Potential enterprise storage applications for emerging NVM at different level of – Emerging NVM chip maximum density roadmap (stand alone devices) the systems D – NVM Market players position – Impact of emerging NVM on enterprise storage systems – TOP three memory makers involvement in emerging NVM – Cache Memory for enterprise storage SSD : Skyera case study LE – Acquisitions & Alliances of the dominant memory players in Emerging Non – Enterprise storage supply chain Volatile Memories – Conclusion on Enterprise Storage Applications – Big challenge for emerging NVM : develop a 3D approach like for NAND and YO DRAM• Emerging NVM applications 86 – General Solid State Memory Applications – Emerging NVM applications : some definitions – Memories Specifications – Emerging NVM applications positioning – Emerging NVM Applications – Emerging NVM positioning by application and current memories used – Memory Density Requirements by applications – Emerging NVM Time to market by Application – Emerging NVM application analysis – Emerging Memories potential applications : density and price positioning – Emerging NVM key industrial players by application © 2013 • 2 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 3. Table of Contents (2/2)• Mobile phone applications 131 – PCM Price evolution in $ – Mobile Phone Application Description – PCM players positioning – Mobile phone forecast in Units – PCM roadmap and history of development – Smart Phone Memory will surge – PCM material – Mobile phone applications – PCM positioning compared to NAND and DRAM – Mobile phone application : SoC embedded – Micron profile – Smart Phone Power Consumption : memory has a huge impact for entry level – Micron roadmap Micron latest commercial product T phones – Micron PCM Development Trends – EN – Toshiba STT MRAM development Samsung PCM products and developments – NOR mobile phones embedded SiP applications and players – Embedded PCM ST Microelectronics development – Micron PCM sales in mobile phone applications : – Hynix PCM development EM for entry level mobiles and smart phones – Conclusions on PCM – Mobile phone supply chain • RRAM technology & forecast & players 217 – Conclusion on Mobile Applications – RRAM technology description• PP Mass Storage NAND market 144 – RRAM market forecast in units, in $, in wafers – Mass Storage NAND market – RRAM Price evolution in $ – Mass Storage NAND market : mobiles devices drive growth – RRAM players positioning and chip density roadmap O – Mass Storage NAND market : Sandisk RRAM development – RRAM material candidates – NAND applications : Total Accessible Market – Cell and array configuration EL – Conclusions on Mass storage Nand Market – RRAM selector element : general constrains – Conclusion on Enterprise Storage Applications – Rambus RRAM technology and roadmap• MRAM technology & forecast & players – – MRAM and STT MRAM technologies STT RAM : benefit from the manufacturing experience of HDD EV 151 – – – Adesto CBRAM development Samsung RRAM developments Micron – Elpida - Sony RRAM R&D D – MRAM players positioning – HP RRAM development – STT MRAM chip density roadmap – Hynix RRAM R&D LE – MRAM / STT MRAM market forecast in units, in $, in wafers – SK Hynix profile – MRAM / STT MRAM Price evolution in $ – IMEC RRAM roadmap – Sandisk RRAM development YO – MRAM market players : Everspin – Samsung Electronics – Semiconductor activity – Macronix CBRAM and RRAM R&D – STT RAM Samsung developments – Panasonic RRAM R&D – Qualcomm/ TSMC - STT MRAM developments – Conclusions on RRAM – Micron STT MRAM developments • FeRAM market 263 – Hynix STT RAM development – FeRAM technology – Toshiba STT MRAM development – FeRAM players – Avalanche STT MRAM activity – FeRAM roadmap – IMEC STT MRAM roadmap – FeRAM TAM – Conclusions on MRAM / STT MRAM – FRAM Research• PCM technology & forecast & players 182 – Conclusions on FeRAM – PCM technology description • General Conclusions 275 – PCM market forecast in units, in $, in wafers © 2013 • 3 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 4. Key features of the report• Present an overview of the semiconductor memory market – NAND and DRAM main markets, market forecast, and main trends – Current technological status and roadmap for the next years T EN – Market players landscape• Provide an understanding of the emerging non volatile memory applications: EM – For five applications fields (Industrial & transportation, Smart Card, Enterprise Storage, Mobile phones, PP Mass storage) : TAM, market drivers and challenges, technologies roadmap, players, main trends. – Roadmap with time to market by application O• EL Present market forecasts on emerging non volatile memories business : – 2012-2018 Market Forecast in units, US$ and Number of wafers – Price evolution by application and technology EV D – Forecast for five applications and for four technologies (FRAM, MRAM/STTMRAM, PCM, RRAM) LE• Describe the emerging NVM technologies YO – Working principle, manufacturing methods, advantages/limitations, status of development, price, time to market – Roadmap with technological nodes, cell size and chip density evolution with main players – Latest product developments status for each key market player• Describe and analyze the competitive landscape – Recent acquisitions and funding – Latest companies news – Who are the key players by technologies and applications © 2013 • 4 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 5. Some definitions• Solid State Semiconductor Memory Solid State Semiconductor – An electronic data storage device, often Memory T used as computer memory but also for EN many other applications : consumer Non Volatile Volatile (camera..), telecom, industrial Memories Memories EM (NVM) applications… PP• Volatile memories : Standard NVM Emerging NVM DRAM O – Requires power to maintain the stored EL information. Examples : DRAM, SRAM• Non volatile memories : EV Flash NAND/ NOR FeRAM SRAM D – Can retain the stored information even LE when not powered. NVSRAM PCM YO – Most dominant NVM technology are based on electron retention principle : Flash NAND and NOR… EEPROM MRAM• Emerging Non Volatile Technology – Emerging NVM are based on another principle than electron retention and have RRAM emerged since 10 years or are still under CBRAM development © 2013 • 5 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 6. Emerging NVM Market Forecast by Application From 2012-2018 (in $ M) T EN EM PP Including Industrial & Car Transportation, Embedded MCUs for Smart Card, Cache O Memory for Enterprise Storage, Mobile phones, Mass storage EL EV D LE YO• Emerging NVM market will grow at a CAGR of + 46 % with mobile phones, smart card and enterprise storage as main growth drivers. © 2013• 6 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 7. Emerging NVM Time to market by Application Mass Storage T MRAM EN PCM EM Mobile Phones PP RRAM O Cache FRAM EL MemoryEnterprise storage EV • D Commercial samples LEEmbedded availability • Real MCU YO productionSmart Card one year laterIndustrial &Automotive years 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 © 2013• 7 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 8. Memories current position in 2012 Emerging memories Established memories FRAM MRAM / STT PCM RRAM DRAM Flash T MRAM NAND EN Non volatile YES YES YES YES NO YES EM Endurance PP High (1012) High (1015) Medium (108) Medium (108) High (1015) Low (105) (Nb cycles) O 2012 latest EL technological 130 nm 130 nm 45 nm R&D 30 nm 20 nm node produced (nm) Cell size Large EV Large /Medium Very small D Medium (6-12) Medium (6-12) Small (6-10) (cell size in F2) (15-20) (6-40) (4) LE Write speed Medium Medium Low High (10 ns) Medium (75 ns) High (10 ns) (ns) (100 ns) (75 ns) (10 000 ns) YO Power Low High/low Low Low Low Very high consumption Cost High High Medium Very Low ($ R&D Low ($ 1/Gb) ($/Gb) ($ 10 000 /Gb) ($ 1000 - 100 /Gb) (few $ /Gb) 0,1/Gb)• Emerging memories have distinctive technical features (endurance, speed, non volatility) but price and scalability is still an issue to compete with dominant memories.© 2013• 8 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 9. Emerging NVM Applications Emerging Non Volatile Memories T applications EN EM Cache Memory Industry & Embedded MCU Mobiles Mass storage For Enterprise PP transportation for Smart Card Phones Memory storage O EL EV DIndustrial Automation LE SIM Card Journal Memory Entry mobile phone NAND YO Memories Smart Meter ID Card Other Smart phones Cache Memory Automotive applications© 2013• 9 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 10. Smart Card Application Description• Description : – Smart card are any pocket-sized card with embedded integrated circuits. Smart cards can provide identification, authentication, data storage and application processing and thus may provide strong T security authentication for single sign-on (SSO) within large organizations. EN – Smart card ICs are Microcontrollers (MCU) that included a memory. Main smart card markets are Telecom SIM card, Payment, Identification/government. Other smaller market are public transportation, Healthcare, EM schools… – Emerging NVM will target at first the telecom SIM market who is more open to innovative technologies PP and with larger volumes. Then, after telecom proven qualification, Identication/government applications will be targeted. O – EL Smart card is one of the largest MCU market segment and the most attractive for emerging NVM because it is very sensitive to innovation and less stringent in terms of technical requirements.• Main market trends: EV D – Telecom SIM : increased security needs with NFC payment introduction LE YO• Memory density need : – High end telecom SIM : Between 400 k to 1,2 Mb• 2012 accessible market for emerging NVM : – High end telecom SIM : 690 M units, $ 207 M, CAGR 2012-2016 in units: + 25 % – Identification/government : 300 M units, $ 150 M, CAGR 2012-2016 in units: + 25 %• Competing memory : Eflash NOR (130 to 80 nm node in 2012, 30 F2 cell size)© 2013• 10 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 11. MRAM players positioning 2011 memory revenues of the company T EN $ 10 B Joint EM development PP $1B O EL $ 100 M EV D LE $ 10 M YO Entrance on the MRAM market Past 2012 2015 2018• Up to now and for 2 years, start up MRAM companies are the first on the market but this will change after 2015 with the arrival of the TOP 4 memory makers. Qualcomm, Renesas and Infineon will target iembedded SoC applications. © 2013• 11 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 12. RRAM market forecast in Number of wafers (12” eq) T EN EM PP O EL EV CAGR 2012-2018 160% D 0% LE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! YO 89% 79%• Mass storage is the killer application for RRAM that will just start to emerge in 2018 before ramping up in the next decade.© 2013• 12 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 13. Hynix PCM development• Hynix partner with IBM in June 2012 to accelerate PCM commercialization. Indeed, IBM has a long experience on PCM and specially 3D PCM. T• 2012 prototype : 1 Gb, 42 nm chip EN• Hynix target power-efficient servers applications, so called storage class EM memories (SCMs) PP O EL EV D LE YOSource : Hynix Aug 2012 © 2013• 13 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 14. FeRAM roadmapChip maximumdensity (Mbit) T EN R&D 10 000 sample EM Commercial PP samples 1000 O Production EL 100 EV D 8 Mb LE 180 and 130 nm 10 4 Mb YO 180 and 130 nm 1 0.1 years 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 © 2013• 14 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 15. Yole activities in MEMS Media business Reports Consulting services News feed / Magazines / Market Market research, Webcasts Research Technology & Strategy T EN EM PP O EL EV D LE YO© 2013• 15 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved
  • 16. Available MEMS Reports Emerging Energy Status of the MEMS for Cell RF Filters, PAs, 3-Axis Consumer Antenna Switches & Harvesting CMOS Image Phones and Tunability for Cellular Gyroscopes Devices Sensors Tablets Handsets T New! New! New! New! New! EN EM Uncooled Infrared Sensor fusion ofTechnology Trends Imaging: Commercial IMU & Gyro for Infrared Detector Defense, Aerospace Market, Applications acceleros, gyros & PPfor Inertials MEMS & Military & Industrial and Technology Trends magnetometers Applications O New! New! EL New! EV Trends in MEMS Motion Sensors for Trends in MEMS D MEMJET MEMS Ferro-Electric Manufacturing & Consumer & Mobile Manufacturing & Microphone Thin Films LE Packaging applications Packaging YO MEMS Cosim+ Thin Wafer MEMS Permanent Wafer Handling Manufacturing Cost Bonding Simulation Tool© 2012 16© 2013• • 16 Emerging Non Volatile Memories 2013 report Copyright © Yole Developpement SARL – All right reserved