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Bulk & Free-Standing GaN
Market analysis for free-standing bulk GaN substrates
in laser diode, LED and power electronics a...
Targeted Applications
•

Today, GaN substrates have three targeted applications: laser diode, LED and power electronics. I...
Bulk or Free-Standing GaN Substrates
Power Electron.

Mass-market introduction in various applications
GaN/Silicon

GaN/bu...
Different Type of “GaN wafers”
Low Defect GaN
templates (ELO)

GaN Templates

Freestanding
GaN

Engineered
Substrate

GaN ...
Bulk/FS GaN Substrates Market Price Trend up to 2020
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Interviews with multiple industry players indicate strong uncertai...
2013-2020 Overall GaN Substrates Volume
Base Scenario

NT
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LE
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D

EM
PP
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Y

In base scenario, GaN substrates w...
2013-2020 Overall GaN Substrates Market Size
Aggressive Scenario

NT
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LE
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E
D

EM
PP
LO
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Y

For LED and Power Elect...
Growth Methods Summary
HVPE (FS)

HVPE (Bulk)

Ammonothermal

Na-Flux LPE

High Pressure
Solution Growth

Growth Rate

~ 1...
Engineered Substrates Via Smart Cut™
Detailed estimation of manufacturing cost
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Details of the process are unknown. Our ...
Main Specifications of Established Players (1/4)
Company

Company A

Company B

Company C

Country

A

B

C

Product

Bulk...
Bulk & Free-Standing GaN Wafers
Estimated Monthly Production Capacity: 2013

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2013 total p...
Blue Laser Diodes for Projector Application Market
Two scenarios
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We see 2 scenarios for the adoption of blue LDs for pr...
GaN on GaN LEDs
Potential applications (General Lighting)
MR16,
Spot

A19, Bulbs

Downlight

Small form
factor, high
densi...
GaN Penetration % Hypothesis per Lamp Type
Aggressive Scenario

NT
E

LE
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E
D

EM
PP
LO
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Y

Note: MR16 are currently ...
Relationships between GaN-on-GaN LED players
$XXXk Endowment for
J.Speck SSC chair

NT
E

Y

Makes 50W equivalent MR16
wit...
2013-2020 Bulk GaN Market for Power Electronics
applications: Aggressive Scenario

NT
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LE
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D

EM
PP
LO
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Y

• Pene...
Compound Semiconductors reports from YOLE
Status of the LED
Industry

Sapphire for
Display, Defense,
Consumer…

SiC Market...
Yole Activities
MEDIA

REPORTS

CONSULTING

News portal/Technology magazines/
Webcasts/Communication services

Market & te...
For More Information…
Please take a look at our websites:

www.yole.fr

NT
E

Yole Développement corporate website

www.i-...
Our Offices & Contact Information
Europe Office
• Yves Devigne, Europe Business Development Manager,
Cell: 33 6 75 80 08 2...
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Free-Standing & Bulk GaN Substrates for Laser Diode, LED and Power Electronics 2013 Report by Yole Developpement

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LED applications will become the driving force of the bulk GaN market, surpassing established laser diode (LD) and emerging power electronics segments. However, major changes could occur if 4” bulk GaN price gets below the breakeven price.



In either a cautious or a more aggressive scenario, LED applications will certainly be the key drivers for the bulk GaN market

There is no doubt that LED technology will take market share over the traditional lamp and tube business. The recent announcements from LED makers (> 150 lm/W now in production) are proving that the performance roadmap is in line with expectations: LED does as well and even better than traditional bulbs and tubes.

Native bulk GaN emerges as an alternative to sapphire or silicon, allowing further improvement of LED performance. Despite potential performance benefits for UHB- LEDs,
massive adoption of GaN wafers remains hypothetical. Taking into account the historical price reductions of bulk GaN substrates, a base scenario outlines where the GaN on GaN LEDs will be limited only to niche markets. If the GaN industry succeeds in replying to the cost pressure from LED makers and the price of 4” GaN wafers falls below the breakeven price, a more significant adoption could be forecast. We see an about three times difference in terms of market volume for LED manufacturing between the two scenarios.



The demand of GaN substrates for LD applications will probably decrease below 20k TIE/yr threshold in the coming years

Blu-ray applications now represent the largest market for blue LD applications. This market will increase in the short term with the arrival of the new generation game stations. However, we believe that this growth will not persist, as more and more people will play games and watch movies online instead.

Despite the recent rapid development of blue and green laser diodes, we see two scenarios for the adoption of GaN based laser diodes for the emerging projector market. The price of LDs is the essential factor to consider.

Combining all applications, the demand for 2” GaN substrates will be more than 2 times higher in the aggressive scenario than in the base scenario. In the best case, the demand would keep relatively stable until 2020.

In R&D, non polar and semi polar substrates have been proposed for LD manufacturing. In principle, the semi polar approach seems to be the most promising in terms of device performance. In practice, c-plane based devices still have better performance.


More than 85% commercial GaN wafers are produced by HV PE, dominated by Japanese companies

Today, essentially all commercial GaN wafers are produced by HVPE, but the details of the growth process and separation techniques vary from company to company – for example, ammonothermal growth at Mitsubishi Chemical, and the new acidic ammonothermeral method at Soraa...
http://www.i-micronews.com/reports/Free-Standing-Bulk-GaN-Substrates-Laser-Diode-LED-Power-Ele/3/398/

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Transcript of "Free-Standing & Bulk GaN Substrates for Laser Diode, LED and Power Electronics 2013 Report by Yole Developpement"

  1. 1. Bulk & Free-Standing GaN Market analysis for free-standing bulk GaN substrates in laser diode, LED and power electronics applications T EM PP LO VE 2013 edition Soraa LE O OSRAM Y © 2013 Copyrights © Yole Développement SARL. All rights reserved. E D N E Ammono Topgan
  2. 2. Targeted Applications • Today, GaN substrates have three targeted applications: laser diode, LED and power electronics. In the following three chapters, we will have a detailed discussion for each application. NT E Bulk GaN substrates Laser diode Projection BluRay Y LE O E D EM PP LO VE HB-LED Industry & Medical General lighting car lighting © 2013• 2 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Targeted Applications Power Supply / PFC Power Devices EV / HEV car PV inverter & other industry
  3. 3. Bulk or Free-Standing GaN Substrates Power Electron. Mass-market introduction in various applications GaN/Silicon GaN/bulk GaN RF Electron. NT GaN/S.I. SiC ME PE P LO VE No bulk GaN here… Opto Laser GaN/Silicon LE O Topgan GaN/bulk GaN E D GaN/CVD Diamond GaN/AlN GaN/CVD Diamond Y GaN/Sapphire LOG Opto LED GaN/AlN GaN/SiC GaN/Ge GaN/Silicon GaN/Glass GaN/Sapphire GaN/bulk GaN GaN/ZnO Soraa < 2009 © 2013• 3 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. 2010 2011 Executive Summary 2012 2013 > 2020
  4. 4. Different Type of “GaN wafers” Low Defect GaN templates (ELO) GaN Templates Freestanding GaN Engineered Substrate GaN boule (“Bulk GaN”) NT E Carrier substrate EM PP LO VE 10- 250 µm thick GaN layer on hetero substrate with low dislocation density areas obtained by ELO Description 10- 250 µm thick GaN layer on a hetero substrate (sapphire, Si) < 1x10x in low defect areas E D 300-500 µm thick GaN layer separated from a mother substrate. Thin GaN layer from GaN wafer bonded onto a carrier substrate 1x10x to 5x10x Depending on method Depends on original GaN wafer 1x10x to 5x10x Depending on method Low TD, homogenous with some techniques. Up to 4-6” available Low cost: one GaN wafer can lead to xxyy engineered wafers. Very low TD Cost, dimensions Availability High performance devices: LD, UHBLED, Power TD density 7x10x to 6x10x Benefits Relatively low cost, large diameter available (4”) Drawback TD density too high for LD and UHBLED, wafer bow TD not homogeneous across surface, wafer bow Cost Thermo-mechanical performance driven by carrier Possible Applications R&D, possible future in HB-LED* LD, R&D LD, UHB-LED, HB LED, Power LD, UHB-LED, HB LED, Power, RF © 2013• Y LE O 4 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LD manufacturing possible in low TD areas GaN single crystals sliced into wafers State-of-the-art of GaN substrates
  5. 5. Bulk/FS GaN Substrates Market Price Trend up to 2020 • Interviews with multiple industry players indicate strong uncertainties regarding GaN LED grade substrates price roadmaps. This leads to two scenarios for price reduction. – A base scenario derived from historical price trends and our analysis of technology status and manufacturing costs. – An aggressive price scenario, derived from the expectation of LED makers and some GaN wafer makers roadmaps. NT E LE O E D EM PP LO VE Y © 2013• 5 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Executive Summary
  6. 6. 2013-2020 Overall GaN Substrates Volume Base Scenario NT E LE O E D EM PP LO VE Y In base scenario, GaN substrates will not penetrate to power electronics market. LED applications represents initial X1% of GaN substrates volume (2 inch equivalent) and would increase to X3% in 2020. © 2013• 6 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Executive Summary
  7. 7. 2013-2020 Overall GaN Substrates Market Size Aggressive Scenario NT E LE O E D EM PP LO VE Y For LED and Power Electronics applications, the estimation of market size is based on the aggressive price scenario. In aggressive scenario, LED applications presents XX% of the overall market size in 2013 and would be X1.5% in 2020, while LD and power electronics applications would be XX% and X0.5% respectively. The total maker size is estimated to be $XX7M in 2020. © 2013• 7 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Executive Summary
  8. 8. Growth Methods Summary HVPE (FS) HVPE (Bulk) Ammonothermal Na-Flux LPE High Pressure Solution Growth Growth Rate ~ 100 µm /h Up to 450 µm /h ~ 4 µm /h ~ 20 - 30 µm /h 1 µm /h Temperature 600 to 1150 °C 600 to 950 °C 400 to 600 °C 800 °C 1600 °C Pressure ~ 1 Atm ~ 1 Atm 1000 – 4000 Atm Seed Type Sapphire, templates, GaAs… Sapphire, templates. Seed Cost $ $ Max Thickness X00 µm (wafer) X0 mm Max Diameter 4” available 6” demonstrated 2” TD denisity 1x10x to 1x10x As low as 1x10x if combined with ELO 1x10x to 1x10x Benefits Fast growth, Cost efficient Main Challenges NT 50 Atm 10,000 – 20,000 Atm HVPE FS Spontaneous or HVPE FS (MFS) $$$ 0 - $$$ Up to X5 mm X-X mm < X mm 2” available in 2013 (Ammono) Up to 4” demonstrated <2“ < 5 x10x ~ 1x10x ~ 1x10x Multi wafer boule, non polar possible Low DD, Multi wafer boule Low curvature Good compromise growth speed/DD, low curvature High quality, low curvature Stress, curvature. Stress, curvature, TD density varies along the boule Slow, purity, transparency*. Expensive seeds Yields, scalability, expensive HVPE FS seed Cost, small dimension, scaling Status Commercial, mainstream. Commercial, Ramping up Commercial, ramping up. High level of R&D (Soraa, Mitsubishi, Ammono) To be commercialized soon by Company A, R&D by various institutes R&D for high performance LD Leaders Company A, Company B, Company C + Company D (R&D) Company A Company A (commercial) Soraa, Mitsubishi,UCSB, Sixpoint…. (R&D) Company A (with OSAKA University), Company B Company A © 2013• LE YO *Coloration due to Oxygen contamination 8 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. ME PE P LO VE Spontaneous or HVPE FS $$$ E D State-of-the-art of GaN substrates
  9. 9. Engineered Substrates Via Smart Cut™ Detailed estimation of manufacturing cost • Details of the process are unknown. Our hypothesis are presented in the table on the right: Our cost simulation indicates that a ~$XXX cost for a 4” LED quality engineered is achievable under reasonable hypothesis. Even with more conservative hypothesis, we believe that if technologically successful, the engineered substrate approach has the potential to be extremely cost competitive for the LED market. Hypothesis • Wafer Process Flow Implantation Exfoliated layer Carrier wafer Bonding Smartcut N side CMP N side cleaning + etching Ga Side finishing #1 Ga side finishing #2 Ga side cleaning Ga Side RIE Ga side final cleaning Total 1: 2: Y LE O Ion implantation depth X0 µm Polishing thickness / cycle X µm (X µm /side) Stop thickness1 X00 µm  # of cycle per donor XX $XXXX Carrier wafer cost2 US$XXX Ion implanter cost US$ Xm Ion implanter throughput xxx wafer per hour NT E EM PP LO VE Cost (US$) $ XX $ XXX $ YYY $ ZZ $ X $ XX $ Y $ ZZ $ XX $ T $ Y $ X $ XXX E D X00 µm Donor wafer cost • Initial donor thickness 4’’ Engineered wafer cost No more layer transfer possible when donor wafer reaches this thickness. Assume transparent polycrystaline AlN ceramic but no information publically available regarding actual material. © 2013• 9 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. State-of-the-art of GaN substrates
  10. 10. Main Specifications of Established Players (1/4) Company Company A Company B Company C Country A B C Product Bulk substrates, Gallium nitride on AmmonoGaN epi-wafers FS wafers FS wafers Growth Technology XXXX XXXX Seed XXXX XXXX Separation Slicing Pro Low DD, non and semipolar orientations, flat crystal lattice, multi seeds (up to 150) Con High pressure and lower growth rate compared to HVPE, Status In production Diameter 1". 2" available in 2013 TD density Lattice Radius NT E EM PP LO VE XXXX XXXX Self separation (TiC/Low T GaN buffer) Self Separation (voids in the vicinity of the TiN nanonet) 2D growth, self separation 2D growth, self separation Lower crystal lattice flatness compared to “true” bulk substrate Lower crystal lattice flatness compared to “true” bulk substrate In production In production 2", 4" 2“ in production. 4” R&D 5 x 104 homogeneous over the whole wafer, 7x103 in R&D 3 x 106 < 5 x 106 100 to 1000 m > 5m < 10 m Non Polar Available Yes No ? Did some by growing thick HVPE boules according to USCB paper review on non polar. No Estimated Capacity (TIE) Scaling-up with the X000/m target ~ X00 / m X00 / m now, XX00 /m at the end of 2013 Comments Founded in 1999, 2" wafer in 2013. Company D owns 25% JV with Company E Offering both Laser grade and LED grade. Major supplier of laser grade. © 2013• LE O E D Y 10 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. State-of-the-art of GaN substrates
  11. 11. Bulk & Free-Standing GaN Wafers Estimated Monthly Production Capacity: 2013 NT E LE O E D EM PP LO VE Y 2013 total production capacity: X730 x 2” wafers/month  XX,760 w/year Japan companies: XX% Current leaders: Company A, Company B, Company C © 2013• 11 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. State-of-the-art of GaN substrates
  12. 12. Blue Laser Diodes for Projector Application Market Two scenarios • We see 2 scenarios for the adoption of blue LDs for projection applications: – Base scenario: • GaN based blue LDs have not reached that price target yet despite their technical maturity. The market share for lasers should be limited to high end products. – Aggressive scenario: • The price of GaN based blue LDs decrease quickly to $XX, being able to compete with LED based projection applications. NT E LE O E D EM PP LO VE Y * Note that the vertical scales are different in two graphs. © 2013• 12 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  13. 13. GaN on GaN LEDs Potential applications (General Lighting) MR16, Spot A19, Bulbs Downlight Small form factor, high density of light, focused beam High volume Challenge Thermal Management Omni directional beam pattern, low glare Comment Ideal application for GaN. Currently no satisfying solutions for 50W MR16 Opportunity for GaN High © 2013• Streetlight High Bay Decorative High flux required, controlled beam shape Design flexibility NT E Illustration Requirements Troppher, Linear fluorescent 13 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LE YO EM PP LO VE Directional beam pattern NA High flux required, Controlled beam shape for roadway lighting NA Very large surface, diffused light, requires low glare Priority is often to maximize energy efficiency rather than initial cost Energy efficiency is important for total cost of ownership Low glow usually preferred over high flux NA Low E D Glare and cost of ownership are limiting Can also be build with cost efficient Chip On Board (COB) LEDs More suited for low/mid power LEDs GaN could compete when initial cost is key Solutions based on COB or standard power package already exist Low Medium Low Medium Medium LED Applications
  14. 14. GaN Penetration % Hypothesis per Lamp Type Aggressive Scenario NT E LE O E D EM PP LO VE Y Note: MR16 are currently the only General Lighting applications having adopted GaN. © 2013• 14 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Applications
  15. 15. Relationships between GaN-on-GaN LED players $XXXk Endowment for J.Speck SSC chair NT E Y Makes 50W equivalent MR16 with SSC nPola LEDs © 2013• 15 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Makes 30-65W MR16 equivalent LE O E D EM PP LO VE LED Applications Co-Founder: J. Speck, S.Nakamura Sells “nPola” GaN on GaN LEDs made on Mitsubishi substrates Sells GaN substrate S.Nakamura, advisor to SSC Compete!
  16. 16. 2013-2020 Bulk GaN Market for Power Electronics applications: Aggressive Scenario NT E LE O E D EM PP LO VE Y • Penetration rate with respect to GaN on Si substrates (GaN on Si substrates volume: source Yole Développement) © 2013• 16 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Power Electronics Applications
  17. 17. Compound Semiconductors reports from YOLE Status of the LED Industry Sapphire for Display, Defense, Consumer… SiC Market New! New! III-V Epitaxy Substrates & Equipment Market LED Packaging LE O E D Y UV LED MARKET © 2013• 17 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. NT E EM PP LO VE New! LED Front End Manufacturing Technologies Sapphire CoSim+ Sapphire for LED GaAs Wafer Market & Applications
  18. 18. Yole Activities MEDIA REPORTS CONSULTING News portal/Technology magazines/ Webcasts/Communication services Market & technology/Patent Investigation/Reverse costing Market research/Technology & Strategy/Patent Investigation/ Reverse costing NT E LE O E D EM PP LO VE www.yole.fr YOLE FINANCE M&A/ Due Diligence/ Fundraising/ Technology brokerage Y www.yolefinance.fr SISTER COMPANY Reverse engineering & costing/ Cost simulation tools © 2013• 18 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  19. 19. For More Information… Please take a look at our websites: www.yole.fr NT E Yole Développement corporate website www.i-micronews.com EM P PInformation Our Offices & Contact LO www.systemplus.fr VE Sister company; expert E teardown & reverse costing analysis D in LE Owww.yolefinance.com YYole business unit dedicated to financial services Separate News Portal - free online registration to our publications Follow us on © 2013• 19 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  20. 20. Our Offices & Contact Information Europe Office • Yves Devigne, Europe Business Development Manager, Cell: 33 6 75 80 08 25 - Email: devigne@yole.fr NT E • David Jourdan, Headquarter Sales Coordination & Customer Service, Tel: 33 472 83 01 90, Email: jourdan@yole.fr USA Office EM PP LO VE • Michael McLaughlin, Business Development Manager, Phone: (650) 931 2552 - Cell: (408) 839 7178 - Email: mclaughlin@yole.fr • Jeff Edwards, Sales Associate, Yole Inc., Cell: (972) 333 0986- Email: edwards@yole.fr Japan Office LE O E D • For custom research: Yutaka Katano, General Manager, Yole Japan & President, Yole K.K. Phone: (81) 362 693 457 - Cell: (81) 80 3440 6466 - Fax: (81) 362 693 448 - Email: katano@yole.fr Y • For reports business: Takashi Onozawa, Sales Asia & General Manager, Yole K.K. Email: onozawa@yole.fr Korea Office • Hailey Yang, Business Development Manager Phone : (82) 2 2010 883 - Cell: (82) 10 4097 5810 - Fax: (82) 2 2010 8899 - Email: yang@yole.fr © 2013• 20 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
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