Sapphire Applications & Market: from LED to Consumer Electronic August 2014 2014 Report by Yole Developpement

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Sapphire Applications & Market: from LED to Consumer Electronic August 2014 2014 Report by Yole Developpement

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Apple saved the sapphire industry in 2013 and could transform it in 2014. ...

Apple saved the sapphire industry in 2013 and could transform it in 2014.
Will the revolution happen?

WHAT’S NEW COMPARED TO LAST EDITION?

Updated analysis of new consumer electronic applications: smart watches, camera lens and fingerprint reader covers, and display cover
New application: sapphire as a packaging substrates for LED filaments.
Updated analysis of the GTAT/Apple partnership: display cover manufacturing cost modeling, supply chain capacity analysis, yield impacts and paths to cost reduction
Apple sapphire patent analysis
Recent sapphire substrates price trends
Updated supply and demand analysis.
Recent news

APPLE SAVED THE SAPPHIRE INDUSTRY IN 2013…
The sapphire industry recently ended a long period of depressed pricing and achieved US$936 million in revenue for wafer products in 2013. Recovery was helped by an increase in LED demand due to accelerating adoption in general lighting and a resilient LCD backlight market. But the saving grace was new consumer electronic (CE) applications: camera lens and fingerprint reader covers, mostly driven by Apple in 2013. Adoption at other vendors is progressing at a slower pace than anticipated in 2014. LG even reversed the trend with its flagship cellphone: its G2 model featured a sapphire lens cover but the G3 uses glass. However, we are optimistic for the mid-term with adoption increasing in Taiwan and China. In addition, new applications such as LED filaments could further increase sapphire consumption.

After almost 2 years of losses, the price of sapphire cores increased more than 50% in 2013. In Q2-2014, tier-1 sapphire vendors were finally selling at breakeven prices. However, we expect that prices will decrease again in Q4.

The updated report provides historical price trends and forecasts for cores and wafers, detailed capacity and revenue analysis, rankings and market share, as well as a thorough supply vs. demand analysis.

More information on that report at http://www.i-micronews.com/reports/Sapphire-Market-LED-Consumer-Electronic-August-2014-Edition/3/455/

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  • 1. © 2012• 1 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Sapphire Application & Market: From LED to Consumer Electronics August 2014 Edition 75 cours Emile Zola, F-69001 Lyon-Villeurbanne, France Tel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83 Web: http://www.yole.fr → Core Fabrication → Wafer Slicing → Lapping → Diamond polishing → Geometry inspection → Optical inspection → Final cleaning → Epitaxy application Philips LumiledsMonocrystalRubicon AppleGTAT Peregrine Semiconductor
  • 2. © 2012• 2 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Core Prices The 2009-2013 Cycle To understand the current pricing environment and try to predict future trends, it is necessary to look back at the previous price cycle: Initial conditions Trigger Short Term Effect Mid Term Effect Long Term Effect • Few sapphire makers • World economic crisis affecting all industries • Most sapphire makers cash strapped and unable to invest in new capacity. Unanticipated[1] and strong demand jump due to success of first LED TV models • Material shortage  Dramatic material price increase (5x) • High profits for established vendors and new entrants, regardless of cost structure • Excessive capacity investments (also by anticipation of general lighting applications growth) • More than 80 new companies trying to enter the market Excess capacity and slower than anticipated demand triggers price crash (8x drop) Worldwide Economic Crisis LED TV: strong demand hike Sapphire Shortage Excess Investment Price crash + long depression 2008 – Early 2009 Q4-2009 2010 2011 2011-2012 [1]: Massive adoption of LED for LCD TV backlight wasn’t anticipated before at least 2010-2011
  • 3. © 2012• 3 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Sapphire Core and Wafer Revenue Top 20 Companies Total: US$XXX m • The top 5 vendors captured 35% of revenue. The top 20 captured 77%. • The 65 remaining companies shared wafer related revenue of US$XXX m • However, some of those “2nd tier” are quite successful with non wafer products. We estimate that those “other applications” totaled US$XXX m in 2013. • PSS foundries entered the top 20 for the first time (Rigidtech, LGS, Aceplux)
  • 4. © 2012• 4 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Alternative Substrates For LED Overview • There are two major candidates: Silicon and GaN. Both aim at displacing sapphire by improving LED cost of ownership (Lumen/$). However the philosophy behind them is different: – GaN wafers would significantly increase epiwafer manufacturing cost but enhance performance (light emitted by unit of chip surface) to levels that would still improve the Lumen/$ figure over sapphire. – Silicon would deliver LED performance similar to sapphire but allow significant cost reduction at the die level by enabling manufacturing in existing, fully depreciated 8” CMOS fabs. COST = $ LUMEN Manufacturing Efficiency • Higher equipment throughput and yields • Economy of scale LED Performance • Higher efficiency (lumen/W) • More light per chip (driving current) GaN-on-Si LEDs → Reduce component cost GaN-on-GaN LEDs → Improve performance to reduce number of packages per System
  • 5. © 2012• 5 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. MR16, Spot A19, Bulbs Downlight Troppher, Linear fluorescent Streetlight High Bay Decorative Illustration Requirements Small form factor, high density of light, focused beam High volume Directional beam pattern NA High flux required, Controlled beam shape for roadway lighting High flux required, controlled beam shape Design flexibility Challenge Thermal Management Omni directional beam pattern, low glare NA Very large surface, diffused light, requires low glare Priority is often to maximize energy efficiency rather than initial cost Energy efficiency is important for total cost of ownership Low glow usually preferred over high flux Comment Ideal application for GaN. Currently no satisfying solutions for 50W MR16 Glare and cost of ownership are limiting Can also be build with cost efficient Chip On Board (COB) LEDs More suited for low/mid power LEDs GaN could compete when initial cost is key Solutions based on COB or standard power package already exist NA Opportunity for GaN High Low Medium Low Medium Medium Low GaN on GaN LEDs Potential applications (General Lighting)
  • 6. © 2012• 6 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. GaN vs. Sapphire: Breakeven Price Analysis • Simulations were conducted for various 4” GaN wafers price and yield hypothesis in order to estimate the breakeven point with current sapphire based technology. The reference target point is represented by the current cost efficiency of a Flip Chip die built on a 4” Patterned Sapphire substrate. • Under those assumption, the breakeven point is <$XXX. We therefore consider that unless the price of 4” GaN wafer reaches this <$XXX target, adoption of GaN on GaN will be restricted to niche markets where the specific performance advantages of GaN (high flux over a small surface) overcome the price handicap. • An engineered substrate behaving like a GaN bulk wafer but offered at <$XXX would rapidly offer significant cost of ownership benefits over sapphire and could capture significant market shares. 4” GaN wafer price
  • 7. © 2012• 7 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Makers Positioning Commitment to Si platformNo interest / Exited Defensive Core Strategy Development status R&D Pilot Ramping Up Volume Manufacturing LED makers committed to Si as differentiating technology LED startups committed to Si as differentiating technology Established LED makers with limited differentiation on sapphire platform and access to internal CMOS fab  Strong incentive for Si Established LED makers with strong sapphire-based technologies and no internal CMOS fab capacity Established LED makers with strong sapphire-based technologies and no internal CMOS fab capacity. Have experimented but ruled out Si in the short/mid term.
  • 8. © 2012• 8 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Cost Simulation Results The simulations show a potential cost reduction of -38 to 45% at the die level vs. a 4” sapphire vertical LED: January 2013 Notes: • Front End = epitaxy + Si carrier preparation + wafer processing + bonding + epi substrate removal • Back End 0 = Probe test + scribing  include yield costs (cumulated cost of all the rejected die)
  • 9. © 2012• 9 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. 2010-2014 GaN MOCVD Capacity Evolution Geographic Breakdown Total MOCVD capacity increased 270% in the last for year, with China taking the lead since 2012. However, we estimated that only 70% of the reactors present on Chinese soil are operating. Feb. 2014 Note: based on physical location of the reactors (i.e: reactors at Chinese branches of Taiwan based LED makers are counted in China)
  • 10. © 2012• 10 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Wafer Diameter Trends: Geographic Breakdown Feb. 2014 See comments next page.
  • 11. © 2012• 11 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. PSS Supply Chain Overview • The PSS supply chain is highly fragmented with multiple players and products moving along 5 different possible channels: Sapphire Maker PSS Foundry LED Makers Sapphire Maker with internal PSS capabilities PSS Foundry LED Makers LED Makers with internal PSS CapabilitiesSapphire Maker Sapphire Maker LED Makers PSS Foundry Sapphire Maker LED Makers 1 2 3 4 5 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 3 1 Sub-contracting Sub-contracting
  • 12. © 2012• 12 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. PSS Adoption Trends Volume Breakdown and Adoption Rate per Region • PSS adoption rates varies by region with China, Korea and Japan leading with more than XX%, followed by Taiwan at XX%. • US and Europe are trailing at XX% and XX% respectively due to the prevalence of vertical LED structures amongst the local LED makers. However, Philips Lumileds (US) started using small volumes of PSS in 2013. Total: XXm TIE per month
  • 13. © 2012• 13 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. PSS Capacity In Taiwan Overview Note: all capacities in TIE per month Total Capacity: xxk TIE • Leading foundries are: Rigidtech, XXX, XXX and XXX. • Multiple smaller foundries have emerged during the PSS shortage in 2012. We believe that most could disappear in the next 12-18 months. Total Volume Processed internally by LED makers: xxk TIE • XXX is the only Taiwan based LED maker that processes a large fraction of its PSS needs internally. Total Capacity: xxk TIE • Most sapphire makers are now vertically integrated and have some internal PSS capacity. • Leaders are: Crystalwise, Crystal Applied Technology, Tera Xtal (ACTC), Procrystal. • Following the merger with SAS, Crystalwise is now the largest PSS producer with a total capacity of 350k. • Crystal Applied Technology has been outsourcing PSS to foundry partner XXX but is now setting up in-house capacity in China. Total: xx m
  • 14. © 2012• 14 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Evolution of Peregrine Ultra CMOS Technology STeP8: 250 nm. Bonded on 6” Sapphire STeP10: 130 nm Epi on 8” eSI-SOI STeP2: 500 nm. Epi on 6” Sapphire STeP5: 350 nm. Bonded on 6” Sapphire STeP3.5: 350nm. Epi on 6” Sapphire STeP4: 350 nm. Epi on 6” Sapphire Best commercial GaAs: 224 Technology Scaling Technology Scaling Technology Scaling Technology Scaling + Substrate improvement Technology Scaling UltraCMOS 6” sapphire & 8” SOI wafers (Peregrine)
  • 15. © 2012• 15 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Definitions and Metrics for Material Capacity Two Inch Equivalent • The TIE metric was a convenient way to gage and compare capacity from one vendor to another. However is not applicable to non wafer products like cell phone display covers and other shapes: – Square shapes lead to potentially higher utilization rates – Different orientations possible • The example below illustrates how for a boule with a given geometry, the potential material usage varies depending on the geometry and orientation of the parts to be extracted. • We chose to still report capacity in TIE for better comparison with historical data. However, one should keep in mind that a given TIE capacity can lead to different volumes if the company serves non wafer applications.
  • 16. © 2012• 16 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Material Capacity Top 20 manufacturers. • The top 3 remains unchanged and represent 26% of the total capacity. • The top 20 represent 77%. • There are now 9 Chinese companies in the top 20. • Procrystal capacity = XXXk in Taiwan + XXXk in new facility in China. However, some of the capacity in CN might stem from furnaces transferred from Taiwan. • The GTAT capacity reported is for the Salem, NH facility. Although, we believe those furnaces are currently essentially used for process development. Capacity at the new Mesa, AZ is NOT included here.
  • 17. © 2012• 17 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Focus on China Overview • Since 2009, we’ve tracked a total of 93 companies active or planning to enter the sapphire market. • We believe that at least 10 projects have already pulled the plug or stopped before construction started. Among the highest profile where GCL Opto, SKT and Kanglan which initially targeted a combined capacity of more than 2.5 million TIE per month. • Most of the new entrants rely on growth technologies acquired abroad (GTAT, ARC Energy, Thermal Technology and multiple Eastern European Kyropoulos vendors). However there are now credible equipment manufacturers in China. • There are more than 80 LED epitaxy companies in China. More than half of them are likely to disappear within the next 2-3 years. But strong leaders are emerging (Sanan, ETI, Epilight, Yangzhou Zhongke Semiconductor, Nationstar, Tsinghua Tongfang, HC Semitek, Silan Azure..) Leading Companies: • Crystaland, Aurora, Silian • Emerging: Unionlight, HTOT, Saifei, Shangsheng, TDG Core, NJ-Crystal, Crystal Optech etc…
  • 18. © 2012• 18 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Supply vs. Demand: Scenario #2: Adding Display Cover Note: excludes 80% of Apple need considered captive at the GTAT Mesa facility
  • 19. © 2012• 19 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. LED Filament Materials • Various materials are used for the COB substrates: Glass, Ceramic, Sapphire. • Glass and ceramic are still widely used due to low cost and broad availability compared to sapphire: – Glass filament substrates: from CNY 0.3/piece. – Ceramic filament substrates: from 0.4 CNY / piece • Sapphire is currently emerging as the preferred material due to: – High mechanical strength, good thermal conductivity (compared to glass) and perfect thermal expansion coefficient match with the LED die. – ASP decreasing quickly as manufacturing technologies mature: from about 1.2 CNY a year ago to ~ 0.6 CNY (range: 0.48-0.8) currently. • However, it remains to be seen which of sapphire or translucent alumina ceramics will win in the long term. Close up of an assembled filament (www.superbrightleds.com) Glass-based filament (source: UVTM)
  • 20. © 2012• 20 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Smart Watches and Sapphire • Sapphire has been used in luxury watches since the 1930’s. Todays, most “luxury watches” watches have sapphire windows obtained by the Verneuil method[1]. • However, the Verneuil method is limited in size (1-1.5“ diameter max) and “Smartwatches” have rather large displays. This provides opportunity for non alternative bulk growth technologies to capture this market despite their higher cost. • Some smartwatch models announced at the CES 2014 feature a sapphire display cover. However, the current market leader, Pebble announced it’s new flagship model will use Gorilla Glass. The Wellnes Watch by Wellograph features a sapphire display cover (source: company) Feb. 2014 [1] This market is discussed in details in our “Touch Screens, Displays, Semiconductor, Defense & Consumer Applications of Sapphire” report
  • 21. © 2012• 21 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Cost Simulations Display Cover Dimensions: • Since then, it has became increasingly likely that Apple will for the first time release 2 models with different display size: 4.7” and 5.5”. • For this edition, we have therefore simulated 2 different display size and used the following dimensions: Item X Y Diagonal Surface 4.7” display Display 2.3” 5.85 cm 4.1” 10.42 cm 4.7” 11.9 cm Display Cover 2.53” 6.43 cm 5.37” 13.64 cm 5.94” 15.08 cm 13.59 inch2 87.71 cm2 5.5” display Display 2.7” 6.86 cm 4.8” 12.17 cm 5.5” 13.97 cm Display Cover 2.93” 7.45 cm 6.06” 15.4 cm 6.73” 17.11 cm 17.76 inch2 114.73 cm2 • At the time of publishing the first version of this analysis in November 2014, very little information was available regarding the size of the future iPhone 6 display. But recent studies indicated that the vast majority of $400+ Android phone market was now constituted of 5” or larger displays, so we assumed that to respond to consumer demand, Apple would increase the display size compared to its previous models. At the time we chose to simulate a display cover with dimensions similar to the one used in by Samsung for its Galaxy S4 featuring a 5” display.
  • 22. © 2012• 22 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Yield Impact on Cost and Capacity: Crystal Growth – 4.7” • Crystal growth yields have a significant impact on cost although there’s diminishing returns when sufficiently high. In the sapphire growth industry, XX% yield would already be considered very good and XX% excellent. Only a handful of world-class sapphire makers consistently reach such levels. • We consider that yields the XX-XX% range were probably used as the base of discussion between Apple and GTAT to agree on initial price, and capacity. However, as of late July 2014, only one month after the Mesa plant started operated at full capacity, we believe that yields are much lower, probably in the XX-XX% range. The company must therefore rapidly improve this number in order to meet shipment volume targets[1] and improve its cost position to achieve initial revenue and gross margin guidance. [1]: per their initial agreement, if GTAT can’t meet its supply commitment, it will bear ALL cost associated with Apple having to source material from another vendor
  • 23. © 2012• 23 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. Unionlight Technology Co. Ltd (CN) 元亮科技 集团 • Capacity/Capability (Q1-2014) – The company has developed an in-house Kyropoulos-type of growth technology called TSTGT (Top Seeded Temperature Gradient Technique) that features CZ-like seeding and diameter control procedures. – As of Q4 2013, the company grows 100 kg boule but is currently upgrading the technology to 150 kg by mid 2014 and is currently developing 300kg systems. • Sapphire Revenue (estimates): – 2012: US $XX million – 2013: US $XX million Source: Atlas website Xinjing Sapphire boules: 18, 35 and 80kg (source: company) Xinjing Sapphire capacity expansion plan (source: company)
  • 24. Compound Semiconductors reports from YOLE UV LED MARKET LED Packaging GaAs Wafer Market & Applications III-V Epitaxy Substrates & Equipment Market Sapphire CoSim+ Sapphire for Display, Defense, Consumer… Status of the LED Industry New!New! Sapphire Q3 2014 New! Diamonds Bulk & freestanding GaN SiC MarketSiC Market 2014 New! LED Front End Manufacturing Technologies
  • 25. Yole Activities © 2012 2 MEDIA News portal/Technology magazines/ Webcasts/Communication services REPORTS Market & technology/Patent Investigation/Reverse costing CONSULTING Market research/Technology & Strategy/Patent Investigation/ Reverse costing www.yole.fr www.yolefinance.fr YOLE FINANCE M&A/ Due Diligence/ Fundraising/ Technology brokerage SISTER COMPANY Reverse engineering & costing/ Cost simulation tools
  • 26. For More Information… Please take a look at our websites: www.yole.fr Yole Développement corporate website www.i-micronews.com News Portal - free online registration to our publications www.systemplus.fr Sister company; expert in teardown & reverse costing analysis www.yolefinance.com Separate Yole business unit dedicated to financial services Follow us on Our Offices & Contact Information
  • 27. Our Offices & Contact Information Europe Office • David Jourdan, Headquarter Sales Coordination & Customer Service, Lyon - France Tel: 33 472 83 01 90, Email: jourdan@yole.fr • Faycal El Khamassi, Headquarter Sales Coordination & Customer Service, Lyon - France Tel: 33 472 83 01 95, Email: khamassi@yole.fr Japan Office • For custom research: Yutaka Katano, General Manager, Yole Japan & President, Yole K.K. Phone: (81) 362 693 457 - Cell: (81) 80 3440 6466 - Fax: (81) 362 693 448 - Email: katano@yole.fr • For reports business: Takashi Onozawa, Sales Asia & General Manager, Yole K.K. (Tokyo) Phone: (81) 36 869 6970 - Cell: (81) 80 4371 4887 - Email: onozawa@yole.fr Korea Office • Hailey Yang, Business Development Manager (Seoul) Phone: (82) 2 2010 883 - Cell: (82) 10 4097 5810 - Fax: (82) 2 2010 8899 - Email: yang@yole.fr
  • 28. orDEr forM Sapphire Applications & Market: from LED to Consumer Electronic – August 2014 Edition ABOUT YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT SHIPPING CONTACT First Name: Email: Last Name: Phone: PAYMENT BY CREdIT CARd Visa Mastercard Amex Name of the Card Holder: Credit Card Number: Card Verification Value (3 digits except AMEX: 4 digits): Expiration date: BY BANK TRANSFER BANK INFO: HSBC, 1 place de la Bourse, F-69002 Lyon, France, Bank code: 30056, Branch code : 00170 Account No: 0170 200 1565 87, SWIFT or BIC code: CCFRFRPP, IBAN: FR76 3005 6001 7001 7020 0156 587 RETURN ORdER BY • FAX: +33 (0)472 83 01 83 • MAIL: YOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT, Le Quartz, 75 Cours Emile Zola, 69100 Villeurbanne/Lyon - France SALES CONTACTS • North America: David Jourdan - jourdan@yole.fr • Asia: Takashi Onozawa - onozawa@yole.fr • Europe & RoW: Jean-Christophe Eloy - eloy@yole.fr • Korea: Hailey Yang - yang@yole.fr • General: info@yole.fr (1) Our Terms and Conditions of Sale are available at www.yole.fr/Terms_and_Conditions_of_Sale.aspx The present document is valid 24 months after its publishing date: August 4th , 2014. / Founded in 1998, Yole Développement has grown to become a group of companies providing marketing, technology and strategy consulting, media in addition to corporate finance services. With a strong focus on emerging applications using silicon and/or micro manufacturing (technology or process), Yole Développement group has expanded to include more than 50 associates worldwide covering MEMS, Compound Semiconductors, LED, Image Sensors, Optoelectronics, Microfluidics & Medical, Photovoltaics, Advanced Packaging, Manufacturing, Nanomaterials and Power Electronics. The group supports industrial companies, investors and R&D organizations worldwide to help them understand markets and follow technology trends to develop their business. ConSuLTinG • Market data & research, marketing analysis • Technology analysis • Reverse engineering & costing services • Strategy consulting • Patent analysis More information on www.yole.fr finAnCiAL SErviCES • Mergers & Acquisitions • Due diligence • Fundraising • Coaching of emerging companies • IP portfolio management & optimization More information on www.yolefinance.com rEporTS • Collection of technology & market reports • Manufacturing cost simulation tools • Component reverse engineering and costing analysis • Patent investigation More information on www.i-micronews.com/reports MEDiA & EvEnTS • i-Micronews.com, online disruptive technologies website • @Micronews, weekly e-newsletter • Technology Magazines dedicated to MEMS, Advanced Packaging, LED and Power Electronics • Communication & webcasts services • Events: Yole Seminars, Market Briefings… More information on www.i-micronews.com ConTACTS For more information about : • Consulting Services: Jean-Christophe Eloy (eloy@yole.fr) • Financial Services: Géraldine Andrieux-Gustin (andrieux@yole.fr) • Reports: David Jourdan (jourdan@yole.fr) • Corporate Communication: Sandrine Leroy (leroy@yole.fr) BILL TO Name (Mr/Ms/dr/Pr): Job Title: Company: Address: City: State: Postcode/Zip: Country*: *VAT Id Number for EU members: Tel: Email: date: PRODUCT ORDER please enter my order for above named report : one user license*: Euro 3,990 Multi user license: Euro 5,990 *One user license means only one person at the company can use the report. Please be aware that our publication will be watermarked on each page with the name of the recipient and of the organization (the name mentioned on the PO). This watermark will also mention that the report sharing is not allowed. For price in dollars, please use the day’s exchange rate. All reports are delivered 20% for VAT I hereby accept Yole Développement’s Terms and Conditions of Sale(1) Signature: AuGuST 2014 upDATE