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Professor Darryn McEvoy   Leader of the Climate Change Adaptation Program,        Global Cities Institute, RMIT University...
Outline of presentation1. Climate change: the great contemporary dilemma2. Clarifying climate change agendas3. What should...
Climate change: the great contemporary dilemmaRMIT University©2010   CCAP, Global Cities Institute
Current day impactsRMIT University©2010   CCAP, Global Cities Institute
Clarifying climate change agendas                         Climate science / impacts                         Global warming...
What should we be adapting to?                             Low emissions scenario                 High emissions scenario ...
Research activity: RMIT• Impact of the 2009 heatwave on critical urban infrastructure• Framing climate change adaptation –...
Research activity: Victorian Centre for Climate        Change Adaptation Research (VCCCAR)2010                            ...
‘Think tank’ activity: VCCCAR• Adapting aspirations and  expectations on the coastal  suburban and regional fringe• Gippsl...
Challenges• Means and variability in  climate will be different in the  future, and spatially /  regionally differentiated...
Opportunities• Tools for helping to cope with  uncertainty: use of scenarios,  risk assessment, flexible  management appro...
More informed decision-makingRMIT University©2010     CCAP, Global Cities Institute
Thanks for your attentionDarryn.mcevoy@rmit.edu.au
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McEvoy_YVW_2011

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Transcript of "McEvoy_YVW_2011"

  1. 1. Professor Darryn McEvoy Leader of the Climate Change Adaptation Program, Global Cities Institute, RMIT University Deputy Director,Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation (VCCCAR) Solutions and future directions: YVW, August 2011
  2. 2. Outline of presentation1. Climate change: the great contemporary dilemma2. Clarifying climate change agendas3. What should we be adapting to?4. Research activity in Victoria5. Challenges and opportunities facing business and industryRMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
  3. 3. Climate change: the great contemporary dilemmaRMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
  4. 4. Current day impactsRMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
  5. 5. Clarifying climate change agendas Climate science / impacts Global warming / mitigation Climate change / adaptation / disaster risk reduction Mitigation: ‘avoiding the unmanageable’ Adaptation: ‘managing the unavoidable’RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
  6. 6. What should we be adapting to? Low emissions scenario High emissions scenario 2070 2070 Temperature + 0.9 ºC to + 2.0 ºC + 1.8 ºC to + 3.8 ºC Number of days over 14 20 35 ºC: Melbourne (current 9) Number of days over 45 59 35 ºC: Mildura (current 32) Rainfall + 2% to - 14% + 3% to - 25% Drought Likely increase between 10% and 80% Extreme events Sea level rise Likely rise between 0.18m to 0.59m by 2095, with a possible much greater rise Extremes Likely to be more extreme rain events, and more extreme bushfire eventsRMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
  7. 7. Research activity: RMIT• Impact of the 2009 heatwave on critical urban infrastructure• Framing climate change adaptation – guidance for local authorities / capacity building (navigator, economics, social narratives)• Emergency management (bushfires) and use of IT simulation to improve decision-making• Climate resilient seaports• Climate change and sustainable urban development in the Asia-Pacific regionRMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
  8. 8. Research activity: Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research (VCCCAR)2010 2011Scenarios Responding to the urban heat islandResilient urban systems Enhancing Water Infrastructure Provision with Climate Change UncertaintyIntegrated land management Learning from Indigenous and traditional community knowledgeFraming adaptation Design-led decision support for regional climate adaptation RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
  9. 9. ‘Think tank’ activity: VCCCAR• Adapting aspirations and expectations on the coastal suburban and regional fringe• Gippsland climate change and adaptation study• Regional Business Development in a Variable and Changing Climate: Strategies for Central VictoriaRMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
  10. 10. Challenges• Means and variability in climate will be different in the future, and spatially / regionally differentiated• How to cope, and make decisions, under conditions of uncertainty• Future climate change is only one source of uncertainty• Multiple hazards and joint probability events• Cascading effects Flooding in Victoria 2011: Herald Sun• Importance of socio-economic drivers (climate adaptation / climate sensitive / non climate) RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
  11. 11. Opportunities• Tools for helping to cope with uncertainty: use of scenarios, risk assessment, flexible management approaches• Australia long experience of dealing with variable climate• A chance to capitalise on past success and encourage further innovation• Emerging markets: new technologies and behaviour change (water tanks etc)• Adaptation as an iterative learning process, which requires new relationships and ways of working RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
  12. 12. More informed decision-makingRMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
  13. 13. Thanks for your attentionDarryn.mcevoy@rmit.edu.au
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