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  • 1. Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”, Faculty of Geology and Geography, Department Regional and Political Geography INDICATORS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WATER RESOURCES (CASE STUDY: BLACK SEA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT)Panka Babukova – PhD Student "Planning and Organization of the Territorial Systems - Environmental Management"
  • 2. Conceptual FrameworkDriving Forces – Pressure – State – Impact - Response DRIVING RESPONSE FORCES IMPACT PRESSURE STATE
  • 3. “DRIVING FORCE – PRESSURE – STATE - RESPONSE” MODELDRIVING FORCES: RESPONSE:CLIMATE: WATER MANAGEMENT POLICIES:• Air temperature; • Ecological minimum of river runoff• Precipitation • Consumption and supply managementANTHROPOGENIC: • Water prices• number, density and distribution • IWM of the population;• GDP and GVA by economic sectors IMPACT: WATER STRESS PRESSURE: STATE:WATER ABSTRACTION AMOUNT OF by economic sectors WATER RESOURCESWATER LOSSES WATER SUPPLY REGIME
  • 4. BLACK SEA WMD IN NUMBERS:• Area: 20 760 km² (18.7% of Bulgarian territory);• Population: 1 339 999 persons /2007/(17.5% of Bulgarian population);• GDP: 7 816 345 thousand BGN(15.8% of Bulgarian GDP /2007/);• GVA: 6 389 501 thousand BGN(15.8% of Bulgarian GVA /2007/).Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD
  • 5. NATURAL DF: TEMPERATURE Annual temperature anomaly – regional averaged data BSWMD y = -0.0002x + 0.0846 Black sea water managment district 2 R = 5E-05 1.5 1.0 0.5 TC 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 1931 1936 1941 1946 1956 1961 1966 1971 1981 1986 1996 2001 1951 1976 1991Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
  • 6. NATURAL DF: TEMPERATURE Annual temperature anomaly – regional averaged data Varna station Varna y = 0.0082x - 0.1255 R2 = 0.0292 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 1961 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1979 1981 1985 1987 1993 2001 1963 1977 1983 1989 1991 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
  • 7. NATURAL DF: PRECIPITATION Annual precipitation – deviation from climate normal Black sea water management district y = 0.081x + 99.529 2 R = 0.0052 175 150 P % of normals 125 100 75 50 25 1941 1961 1966 1971 1976 1986 1991 1996 1931 1936 1946 1951 1956 1981 2001Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
  • 8. NATURAL DF: PRECIPITATION – RUN-OFF The Chronological Fluctuation of the Run-off and Precipitation Black sea - runoff Black sea water management district Varna - precip. 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 1931 1937 1943 1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
  • 9. NATURAL DF: CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE Extreme years with high and low water-level WMD WET YEARS DRY YEARS Black 1955/56 1954/55 1966/67 1989/90 1948/49 1984/85 sea R (106 m3) 3660.0 3606.9 3465.6 468.5 522.1 635.1 P % of 105 120 115 92 61 78 normal Bulgaria 1962/63 1954/55 1955/56 1989/90 1993/94 1992/93 R (106 m3) 33590.7 32294.4 31194.2 5996.2 7085.5 7103.9 P % of 113 142 106 68 85 90 normalSource: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
  • 10. MAIN WATER CONSUMERSTotal used water (without cooling water) 2003 - 2007: 935 345 thousand m³ Sector Total used water Average per year Share 2003 - 2007 (thousand m³) (thousand m³)Total used water 935 345 187 069 100 %(without cooling water)Industry 588 790 117 758 62.95 %(without cooling)Agriculture 35 485 7096.98 3.79 %and forestry(including fishery) *irrigation: 66.73%Households 220 440 44 087.9 23.57 %Service sector 90 631 18 126.2 9.69 % *tourism: 34.85%Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD
  • 11. ANTHROPOGENIC DF: 2000 – 1299 thousand people; 2008 – 1280.8 thousand Number of Population people. 1305 y = -2,8217x + 1300,5 1300 2 R = 0,8393 1295 1290 1285 Thousand 1280 people 1275 1270 Linear 1265 (Thousand 1260 people) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 NATURAL INCREASE: 2009 - –1502 people;Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 12. ANTHROPOGENIC DF: 2000 - -5072 persons; 2008 – 4199 persons. Water Consumption, 2008 250 200 150 100 l/p/day 50 0 Bulgaria BSWMD Varna Bourgas Dobrich Shumen District District District DistrictSource: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 13. ANTHROPOGENIC DF: GDP PER CAPITA GDP IN THE BLACK SEA WMD30000 2000 – 13 430 BGN per25000 capita;2000015000 BGN Per Capita 2008 – 24 347 BGN per10000 capita. 5000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 GDP BY WATER ABSTRACTION 0,05 0,04 0,03 0,02 BGN/THOUSAND M³ 0,01 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 14. ANTHROPOGENIC DF: GVA IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 2000 – 607 million BGN; 2008 – 457 million BGN GVA IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR700 y = -7,7512x + 579,07600 2 R = 0,1611500400 Milion Levs300200 Linear (Milion Levs)100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 15. ANTHROPOGENIC DF: GVA IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 2000 – 1.293 million BGN; 2008 – 2.372 million BGN.Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 16. ANTHROPOGENIC DF: TOURISTIC SECTOR 2000 – 812.1 thousand people; 2008 – 2061.3 thousand people. 2008 - 1637 accommodation establishments 2000 – 5.580,9 nights; 2008 – 12.206 nights.Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 17. PRESSURE: WATER SUPPLY Used Water by the Public Water Supply (Total: 71 378 thousand m3) % 8 1,11 13,09 Domestic Sector Industry Service Sector 16,03 Tourism 66,77 AgricultureSource: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 18. PRESSURE: WATER USED BY THE PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY 2000 – 46 132 THOUSAND M³; 2008 – 62 491 THOUSAND WATER SUPPLIED TO DOMESTIC M³. SECTOR (INCL. TOURISM) 70000 60000 50000 40000 THOUSAND M³ 30000 20000 10000 Linear 0 y = 3099,2x + 35839 (THOUSAND R M³) 2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 = 0,6991Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 19. PRESSURE: DRINKING WATER CONSUMPTION IN HOUSEHOLDS 2000 – 92.25 L/H/DAY; DRINKING WATER CONSUMED BY 2002 – 82.7 L/H/DAY; HOUSEHOLDS IN THE WMD 2007 – 98.5 L/H/DAY; y = 0,8197x + 84,882 2008 – 92 L/H/DAY.100 2 R = 0,2033 95 90 85 L/H/DAY 80 75 70 Linear PROGNOSIS FOR WATER ABSTRACTION IN THE 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (L/H/DAY DOMESTIC SECTOR ) 136500,00 136000,00 135500,00 135000,00 134500,00 THOUSAND M³ 134000,00 133500,00 133000,00 132500,00 132000,00 2008 2015Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 20. PRESSURE: WATER USED BY THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 2000 – 16 841 THOUSAND M³; 2008 – 10 350 THOUSAND M³. WATER SUPPLIED TO INDUSTRIES18000 y = -554,32x + 1492616000 2 R = 0,4944140001200010000 THOUSAND M³ 8000 6000 Linear ( 4000 THOUSAND M³) 2000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 21. PRESSURE: WATER USED BY THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 2001 – 350 THOUSAND M³; WATER SUPPLIED TO AGRICULTURE 2004 – 1194 THOUSAND M³; 1400 y = 73,619x + 388,71 2008 – 847 1200 2 R = 0,3769 THOUSAND M³. 1000 800 THOUSAND M³ 600 400 Linear (THOUSAND M³) 200 0 PROGNOSIS FOR WATER ABSTRACTION BY 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 AGRICULTURE 70000,00 60000,00 50000,00 40000,00 THOUSAND M³ 30000,00 20000,00 10000,00 0,00 2008 2015 Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 22. PRESSURE: WATER USED BY THE TOURISTIC SECTOR 2004 – 6493 THOUSAND M³; 2008 – 9997 THOUSAND M³.Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 23. PRESSURE: WATER LOSSES 2001 – 60.6%; 2008 – 60.4%.WATER LOSS FROM PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY y = -0,1705x + 61,827 2 R = 0,205764636261 %605958 Li 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ne ar (%Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008 )
  • 24. STATE: Water Resources of Bulgaria, by Run-off Basins and Water Management Regions (1930/31 – 2002/3) Water W % of water Cv M resources 106 m3 resources in the l/sec/km2 countryBulgaria 19228.6 100 0.331 5.351North Bulgaria 6953.2 36,2 0.355 4.035South Bulgaria 12275.3 63,8 0.331 6.526Black seawater 2412.9 12.5 0.385 2.920managementregionSource: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
  • 25. STATE: QUANTITY OF WATER RESOURCES WATER ABSTRACTION Water resources and water abstraction in Bulgaria Water Years with: Water Total Water Rates of watermanagemen resources Abstraction abstraction t districts 106 m3 106 m3 (%) Black Sea High water level 3660.0 374.0 10.2 Average water 2412.8 15.5 level Low water level 468.5 79.8 Bulgaria High water level 33590.7 3341.0 9.9 Average water 19228.6 17.4 level Low water level 5996.2 55.7Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
  • 26. STATE: WATER SUPPLY RESTRICTION 2000 – 19.4%; 2008 – 1.6%. POPULATION WITH WATER SUPPLY RESTRICTION35 31,73025 19,45 18,22520 15,275 %1510 5 1,6 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 27. RESPONSE: WATER PRICES 2000 – 0.8 BGN; 2006 – 1.06 BGN.Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
  • 28. CONCLUSIONS AND PROBLEMS• Discrepancy between the periods of major water consumption and periods of high waters;• Irrational use of the surface waters;• Ineffective water consumption in households;• Slow increase of water consumption in agriculture and industry;• The increase in tourism was not conformed with the public water supply;• Significant water losses from the transportation systems.
  • 29. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

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