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Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
Dealership market
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Dealership market

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  • 5. Wkh jrdo ri wklv sdshu lv dqdo|}h wkh zd| pdunhw pdnhuv gholehudwho| fkrrvh wr wudghzlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv lq rughu wr h{shulphqw derxw wkh txdolw| ri wkh lqirupdwlrqwkh| ohduq zkhq dq rughu lv sodfhg zlwk wkhp1 Wkh sdshu lv rujdql}hg dv iroorzv1 Zh surylgh wkh prgho lq Vhfwlrq 5/ rxwolqh wkhhpslulfdo uhvwulfwlrqv lq Vhfwlrq 6 dqg ghvfuleh wkh pdunhw lq Vhfwlrq 71 Vhfwlrqv 8/ 9/ :dqg ; duh ghyrwhg wr wkh hpslulfdo hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh pdlq whvwdeoh uhvwulfwlrqv1 D eulhifrqfoxvlrq iroorzv1 Wr vsduh wkh uhdghu wkh whfkqlfdo ghwdlov/ zh surylgh wkh surriv ri wkhsursrvlwlrqv/ wkh ghvfulswlrq ri wkh hfrqrphwulf dssurdfk dqg wkh qxphurxv urexvwqhvvfkhfnv ri wkh uhsruwhg hvwlpdwlrqv lq wkh Dsshqgl{12 A i @h!i| @!iht hLM*i4Zh irfxv rq wkh fkrlfh ri d pdunhw pdnhu zkr kdv uhfhlyhg dq rughu dqg ghdov zlwk wkhsureohp ri h{sorlwlqj wkh lqirupdwlrq srwhqwldoo| frqwdlqhg lq vxfk d wudgh1 Kh idfhvd wudgh0r= rq wkh rqh kdqg kh fdq h{sorlw wkh lqirupdwlrq zlwkrxw uhyhdolqj lw1 Khfdq gr vr e| gluhfwo| sodflqj dq rughu zlwk dqrwkhu pdunhw pdnhu zlwkrxw fkdqjlqj wkhsrvwhg elg dqg dvn txrwhv1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ e| nhhslqj wkh txrwhv xqdowhuhg/ kh ulvnvehlqj klw e| d ghdohu dw d sulfh qrw lq olqh zlwk klv qhz lqirupdwlrq1 Rq wkh edvlv ri wkhvhfrqvlghudwlrqv/ zh sursrvh wkh iroorzlqj ghvfulswlrq ri wkh pdunhw pdnhu*v ghflvlrq0pdnlqjsurfhvv1 Iljxuh 4 jlyhv d vw|ol}hg uhsuhvhqwdwlrq ri lw1 Ohw xv frqvlghu d pdunhw pdnhu zkr uhfhlyhv dq rughu dw wkh dvn1 Iluvw/ kh hydoxdwhv wkhlqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wkh wudgh1 Li wkh pdunhw pdnhu lqihuv wkdw wkh sulfh zloo ulvh/ khfdq h{sorlw wklv lqirupdwlrq e| ex|lqj gluhfwo| iurp dqrwkhu pdunhw pdnhu +%hqgrjhqrxvwudgh%,1 Lq wklv zd| kh uhyhdov klv lqirupdwlrq rqo| wr d vxevhw ri wkh pdunhw1 Krzhyhu/lq rughu wr gr vr/ kh kdv wr nhhs wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv xqfkdqjhg/ dw wkh ulvn ri ehlqjklw dw wkh plvdoljqhg dvn e| dqrwkhu ghdohu zkr kdv dftxluhg wkh vdph lqirupdwlrq1 Wkhpd{lpxp orvv zrxog eh htxdo wr wkh srvwhg ghswk pxowlsolhg e| wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhqwkh dvn dqg wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh ri wkh dvvhw +frqglwlrqdo rq wkh qhz lqirupdwlrq frqwdlqhglq wkh lqfrplqj rughu,1 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ wkh pdunhw pdnhu frxog lqfuhdvh wkh elg lq rughu wr lqgxfh d qhz wudqv0dfwlrqv +%h{rjhqrxv wudgh%, wkdw zrxog uhfrqvwlwxwh wkh lqyhqwru| dqg/ dw wkh vdph wlph/udlvh wkh dvn wr ihqg r qhz rughuv1 Krzhyhu/ lq wklv fdvh/ wkh fkdqjh ri wkh elg dqg dvn 7
  • 6. txrwhv zrxog lpphgldwho| uhyhdo wkh lqirupdwlrq ++Jduedgh/ Srpuhq}h dqg Vloehu 4:,,1Li wkh qhz ex| rughu zhuh h{dfwo| htxdo wr wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh/ wkh pdunhw pdnhu zrxogjdlq rqo| wkh surw doorzhg e| wkh elg0dvn vsuhdg1 Wkh pdunhw pdnhu frxog dovr xvh d frpelqdwlrq ri wkh wzr vwudwhjlhv1 Wkdw lv/ kh frxogfkdqjh wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv rqo| sduwldoo|/ ohvv wkdq wkh h{shfwhg fkdqjh lq sulfhv/ zklohdovr gluhfwo| sodflqj rughuv zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv1 Lq wklv fdvh/ wkh hhfw rq sulfhvzrxog eh gxh wr erwk wkh fkdqjh lq wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv +h{rjhqrxv wudgh, dqg wkhlpsdfw ri wkh hqgrjhqrxv wudgh/ hdfk zhljkwhg e| wkh txdqwlw| wudghg1 Wkh qh{w vwhs lv wkh fkrlfh ri frxqwhusduw1 Li wkh pdunhw pdnhu ghflghv wr sodfh rughuvgluhfwo| zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv/ kh kdv wr rswlpdoo| vhohfw zklfk rqh wr dssurdfk1Lqghhg/ li kh zdqwv wr klgh klv lqirupdwlrq/ kh vkrxog vhohfw wkh frxqwhusduwv vr dv wrplqlpl}h wkh lqirupdwlrqdo lpsdfw ri klv wudgh1 Lq wklv fdvh/ kh zrxog sodfh klv rughuzlwk d ohvv lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhu1 Wklv lv vlplodu lq vslulw wr wkh gxdo0fdsdflw| wudglqjri ghdohuv lq ixwxuhv pdunhw frqvlghuhg/ dprqj rwkhuv/ e| Urhoo +43, dqg Ilvkpdq dqgOrqjvwd +45,1 Li/ krzhyhu/ wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv qrw yhu| frqghqw derxw wkh txdolw| ri lqirupdwlrqfrqwdlqhg lq wkh rughu uhfhlyhg/ exw vwloo eholhyhv lw wr kdyh vrph frqwhqw/ kh fdq ghflgh wrohduq pruh derxw lw1 Wklv frxog eh wkh fdvh li wkh pdunhw pdnhu kdv qrwlfhg lq suhylrxvwudghv wkdw wkh ghdohu sodflqj wkh rughu iuhtxhqwo|/ dowkrxjk qrw frqvlvwhqwo|/ kdv fruuhfwo|wlphg wkh pdunhw1 Wkhq/ kh pd| ghflgh wr sodfh rughuv gluhfwo| zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv/mxvw wr revhuyh wkhlu uhdfwlrq wr wkh wudgh dqg wr ohduq iurp lw1 Xqolnh wkh fdvh lq zklfk wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv yhu| frqghqw derxw wkh txdolw| ri wkhlqirupdwlrq/ krzhyhu/ kh zrxog wudgh zlwk wkh pdunhw pdnhuv kh wklqnv duh pruh lqiruphgmxvw wr whvw wkhlu uhdfwlrq1 Zh frxog wkhuhiruh vd| wkdw kh lv _h{shulphqwlqj%1 Wkdw lv/wkh pdunhw pdnhu fkhfnv wkh txdolw| ri klv lqirupdwlrq e| revhuylqj wkh uhdfwlrq ri wkhpdunhw pdnhuv kh wudghv zlwk dqg vhhlqj li wkh| fkdqjh wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv/ ru li wkh|vlpso| olplw wkhpvhoyhv wr sodflqj rughuv zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv1 Ghshqglqj rq zklfkehkdylru suhydlov/ klglqj ru h{shulphqwlqj/ zh fdq fodvvli| wkh pdunhw pdnhuv lq glhuhqwjurxsv= _vqhdnlhv% li wkh| dozd|v klgh/ _vohhslhv% li wkh| klgh rqo| zkhq wkh| duh yhu|frqghqw derxw wkh txdolw| ri wkh lqirupdwlrq dqg _vnhswlfv% li wkh| dozd|v h{shulphqw1 Li wkhuh zhuh qr vwudwhjlf ehkdylru/ wkh lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wkh wudqvdfwlrq zrxog 8
  • 7. Ranking Informational Content of Incoming Trade Choice of Action Change Bid/Ask Trade on Interdealer Market(Exogenous Trade) (Endogenous Trade) Choice of Counterpart Trade with Well Informed Dealer (Smart Market Timer, Contrarian) Trade with Informed Dealer (Market Timer, Quasi-Contrarian) Trade with Uninformed Dealer (Averages) Iljxuh 4= Wkh ghflvlrq surfhvv ri pdunhw pdnhu1 9
  • 8. eh uhgxfhg wr }hur dqg zh zrxog uhyhuw wr wkh _krw srwdwr% prgho1 Lqghhg/ wkh idfw wkdwwkh _whglrxv sdvvlqj ri xqghvluhg srvlwlrqv% +Fdr dqg O|rqv 4, kdv qr lqirupdwlrqdofrqwhqw fdq eh mxvwlhg lq whupv ri wudglqj wdnlqj sodfh dprqj htxdoo| lqiruphg ghdohuv1 Zh frqvlghu pdunhw pdnhuv khwhurjhqrxv lq whupv ri ulvn dyhuvlrq1 Wkh jhqhulf pdunhwpdnhu lv hqgrzhg zlwk dq h{srqhqwldo xwlolw| ixqfwlrq x+w , @ h3$|3o / zkhuh u lv wkhghjuhh ri ulvn dyhuvlrq/ ! lv wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo udwh ri vxevwlwxwlrq dqg lv wkh surw khjhqhudwhv e| wudglqj1 Wkh pdunhw pdnhu uhfhlyhv dq rughu dqg kdv wr ghflgh krz wr uhdfwwr lw e| hlwkhu wudglqj zlwk lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv +lqiruphg hqgrjhqrxv wudgh t ,/ ruwudglqj zlwk xqlqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv +xqlqiruphg hqgrjhqrxv wudgh t Ä , ru fkdqjlqj wkhelg0dvn sulfhv lq rughu wr vwlpxodwh wudgh +h{rjhqrxv wudgh t e7t ,= Zh pdnh wkh vlpsoli|lqjdvvxpswlrq wkdw dw hdfk urxqg ri wudgh rqo| rqh xqlw ri dvvhw lv wudghg dqg wkh wrwdo wudghv+t / t Ä dqg te7t , dgg xs wr wkh rughu uhfhlyhg +qrupdol}hg wr 4,1 Pdunhw pdnhu*v surwvduh= @  2 .
  • 9. +4,zkhuh  lv wkh sduw ri wkh surwv jhqhudwhg e| wkh h{sorlwdwlrq ri wkh ehwwhu lqirupdwlrq/ 2 lv wkh frvw lqfxuuhg e| nhhslqj wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv xqfkdqjhg dqg
  • 10. lv wkh surwjhqhudwhg e| fkdqjlqj wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv1 Wkh sduw ri pdunhw pdnhu*v surw wkdw lv gxh wr wkh h{sorlwdwlrq ri ehwwhu lqirupdwlrqfdq eh uhsuhvhqwhg dv wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh ydoxh ri wkh dvvhw dqg lwv sulfh pxowlsolhge| wkh txdqwlw| wudghg +t,1 Wkdw lv=  @ t ec•t +y s, @ t ec•t vW zkhuh y lv wkh wuxh ydoxhri wkh dvvhw dqg s lv wkh sulfh dw zklfk wkh wudgh lv h{hfxwhg +N|oh 4;8/ Urhoo 43,1 Wkh frvw ri nhhslqj wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv xqdowhuhg fdq eh uhsuhvhqwhg dv= 2 @ te7t /zkhuh lv wkh frvw ri ehlqj klw dw wkh plvdoljqhg txrwhv1 Lw lv sursruwlrqdo wr wkh glhuhqfhehwzhhq srvwhg sulfh dqg h{shfwhg ydoxh1 Wklv frvw fdq eh wkrxjkw ri dv wkh suredelolw|ri ehlqj klw e| dqrwkhu ghdohu dw wkh plvdoljqhg txrwhv zhljkwhg e| lwv frvw1 Wkh pdunhw pdnhu fdq uhgxfh wkh frvw e| fkdqjlqj wkh srvwhg elg dqg dvn sulfhv1Wklv zrxog jhqhudwh h{rjhqrxv wudgh/ exw dw d sulfh douhdg| lq olqh zlwk wkh h{shfwhgydoxh1
  • 11. @ t e7t ED/ zkhuh ED lv wkh jdlq wkdw wkh pdunhw pdnhu pdnhv e| fkdqjlqjwkh elg0dvn/ vwdqgdugl}hg shu xqlw ri lqfrplqj wudgh1 ED lv htxdo wr wkh vxp ri wzrjdlqv= wkh rqh gxh wr wkh elg0dvn vsuhdg +, dqg wkh dyrlgdqfh ri wkh orvv wkdw zrxog kdyhrffxuuhg li wkh pdunhw pdnhu kdg ehhq klw dw wkh plvdoljqhg txrwhv +,1 Wkh lqwxlwlrq lv :
  • 12. wkdw h{rjhqrxv wudgh lv d vruw ri vwrs0orvv vwudwhj| wkdw surylghv wkh pdunhw pdnhu zlwkd %qrupdo% surw htxdo wr wkh elg0dvn vsuhdg1 Li zh uhghqh surwv diwhu qhwwlqj rxw wkhfrvw ri qrw fkdqjlqj wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv uhsuhvhqwhg e| 2/ zh kdyh= @ t ec•t vW . t e7t Jlyhq wkdw wkh pdunhw pdnhu fdq fkrrvh wr wudgh hlwkhu zlwk pruh lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv+t , ru zlwk ohvv lqiruphg rqhv +t Ä ,/ wkh txdqwlw| wudghg hqgrjhqrxvo| fdq eh h{suhvvhgdv= t ec•t @ +t . t Ä ,= Wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq pdunhw sulfh dqg dvvhw ydoxh lv dhfwhg e| wkh sulfh lpsdfw ripdunhw pdnhu*v wudglqj1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ vW lv d qhjdwlyh ixqfwlrq ri wkh sulfh lpsdfw= wkhpruh wkh pdunhw pdnhu wudghv/ wkh pruh kh uhyhdov lqirupdwlrq derxw wkh wuxh ydoxh riwkh dvvhw dqg uhgxfhv wkh vsuhdg ehwzhhq wkh sulfh ri wkh dvvhw dqg lwv ydoxh1 Zh dvvxphwkdw vxfk d glhuhqfh iroorzv d vwrfkdvwlf surfhvv= Ä Ä gvW @ +4 e7t t e7t t t ,gw . g} +5, 2 2zkhuh uhsuhvhqwv wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh ydoxh ri wkh dvvhw dqg lwv pdunhw sulfh liwkh pdunhw pdnhu glg qrw wudgh/ wkdw lv wkh srwhqwldo surwv ri wkh pdunhw pdnhu1 Wkhehkdylru ri lv ghvfulehg e| d Srlvvrq surfhvv wkdw fdq wdnh xs wzr ydoxhv= kljk +w ,dqg orz +u ,1 Wkh suredelolw| wudqvlwlrq pdwul{ ehwzhhq wlph w dqg wlph w . gw lv= w u w 4 gw gw +6, u gw 4 gwDovr/ e7t dqg Ä uhsuhvhqw wkh lpsdfw rq sulfh ri h{rjhqrxv wudgh/ lqiruphg hqgrjh0qrxv wudgh dqg xqlqiruphg hqgrjhqrxv wudgh uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv ixoo|  W?_ii_ | i } ih | i tThi@_c | i *itt | i _i@*iht t **?} |L hi_ Ui | | hL } | ih L? |h@_?}@?_c | ihiuLhic hi_ Ui i Tih4i?|@|L? W| t Lh| ?L|?} | @| | t ui@| hi hit *|t uhL4 | i u@U| | @|| i ULt| Lu i Tih4i?|?} t ThLTLh|L?@* |L | i tThi@_ EE 3 b ^ 3 bÄ ^ Ä A i @*|ih?@|i tTiU€U@|L?E 3 b ^ 3 bÄ ^ Ä L *_ ThL_ Ui | i t@4i hit *|tc i UiT| uLh | i u@U| | @| | i i TiU|i_ @* i Lu | i @tti|L *_ ?L| @giU| | i _iUtL? |L |h@_i | ?uLh4i_ 4@h!i| 4@!ih `i | ?! | @| | t tTiU€U@|L? Mi||ihU@T| hit | i u@U| | @| | i } ih | i T@)Lg tc | i }hi@|ih | i 4T@|i?Ui Lu | i _i@*ih t L *_ Mic @?_ | ii@!ih t _ithi |L i Tih4i?| ;
  • 13. dzduh wkdw h{rjhqrxv wudgh kdv d vwurqjhu lpsdfw rq sulfhv wkdq grhv hqgrjhqrxv wudgh1Kh dovr nqrzv wkdw sodflqj dq rughu zlwk d pruh lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhu kdv d vwurqjhulpsdfw rq sulfhv wkdq sodflqj dq rughu zlwk d ohvv lqiruphg rqh1 Wkh uhdvrq lv wkdw lq0iruphg wudghuv douhdg| kdyh dq lqirupdwlrq vhw zklfk doorzv wkhp wr h{sorlw wkh dgglwlrqdolqirupdwlrq1 Wkhuhiruh/ e7t A A Ä = Jlyhq wkdw fkdqjlqj wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv uhyhdov prvw ri wkh lqirupdwlrq/ zh dvvxph/wkdw e7t @ 4= Zh dovr dvvxph/ zlwk qr orvv ri jhqhudolw|/ wkdw Ä @ 31 Wkh sulfh lpsdfwri hqgrjhqrxv wudgh ghshqgv rq wkh pdunhw yrodwlolw|1 Wkh kljkhu yrodwlolw| lv/ wkh pruhwkh pdunhw pdnhu zloo eh deoh wr fdprxdjh klv wudgh1 Rq wkh frqwudu|/ h{rjhqrxv wudghuhyhdov lqirupdwlrq wr wkh uhvw ri wkh pdunhw uhjdugohvv ri pdunhw yrodwlolw|1 Rq wkh edvlvri wkhvh dvvxpswlrqv/ zh fdq zulwh wkh odz ri prwlrq ri surwv dv= g @ +4 t e7t t ,+t . t Ä ,gw . te7t gw . +t . t Ä ,g}= +7, 2Lw lv lpsruwdqw wr qrwh wkdw lq zkdw iroorzv zh gr qrw pdnh dq| dwwhpsw wr vroyh iruhtxloleulxp v1 Lqvwhdg/ zh irfxv rq ghulylqj whvwdeoh suhglfwlrqv derxw wkh ehkdylru riwkh lqglylgxdo pdunhw pdnhu xqghu wkh dvvxpswlrq ri khwhurjhqhlw| ri pdunhw pdnhuv*uhdfwlrq wr klv wudgh1 Dovr/ zh zloo vkrz wkdw glhuhqfhv lq ulvn dyhuvlrq duh hqrxjk wr lqgxfh vrph pdunhwpdnhuv wr h{shulphqw dqg rwkhuv wr klgh1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw dw htxloleulxp wkh lqirupd0wlrqdo frqwhqw ri wkh lqfrplqj rughuv lv dozd|v srvlwlyh1 Wkh phuh idfw wkdw vrph djhqwvzloolqjo| uhohdvh sduw ri wkhlu lqirupdwlrq wkurxjk h{shulphqwdwlrq mxvwlhv wkh idfw wkdwdw htxloleulxp pdunhw pdnhuv duh deoh wr udqn hdfk rwkhuv lq whupv ri wkh lqirupdwlrqdofrqwhqw ri wkhlu wudghv12 A i @h!i| @!iht wi@h??}Xs wr qrz zh kdyh dvvxphg wkdw wkh pdunhw pdnhu nqrzv wkh wuxh ydoxh ri 1 Lq wklvfdvh/ wkh ghflvlrq vlpso| lqyroyhv d wudgh0r ehwzhhq h{sorlwlqj wkh lqirupdwlrq derxwwkh h{shfwhg ydoxh ri wkh dvvhw dqg lqfxuulqj d frvw gxh wr wkh lpsdfw ri wudglqj rqpdunhw sulfh1 Krzhyhu/ li wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv qrw ixoo| lqiruphg/ wkh ghflvlrq sureohpfkdqjhv gudvwlfdoo|1 Lqghhg/ wkh pdunhw pdnhu fdq qrz ohduq e| revhuylqj wkh uhdfwlrq rirwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv wr klv rughuv1 Wklv phdqv wkdw wudglqj surylghv klp zlwk d zd| ri
  • 14. h{shulphqwlqj dqg xsgdwlqj klv eholhiv rq wkh txdolw| ri wkh lqirupdwlrq frqwdlqhg lq wkhrughu uhfhlyhg1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh dvvxph wkdw hdfk xqlw ri wkh lqfrplqj wudgh wkh pdunhwpdnhu uhfhlyhv frqwdlqv d vljqdo +, derxw wkh xqghuo|lqj ydoxh ri wkh dvvhw1 Vxfk d vljqdolv dq xqeldvhg suhglfwru dqg iroorzv wkh surfhvv= I g @ gw . t g} +8, n” j2zkhuh g} lv wkh qrlvh ri wkh vljqdo dqg I lv lwv glxvlrq frhflhqw1 Wkh pdunhw pdnhu fdq uhgxfh wkh qrlvh e| h{shulphqwlqj1 Wkdw lv/ kh fdq dvvhvv wkhtxdolw| ri wkh vljqdo e| wudglqj zlwk rwkhu/ srwhqwldoo| pruh lqiruphg/ pdunhw pdnhuv1Wkhuhiruh/ wkh lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh vljqdo lv srvlwlyho| uhodwhg wr wkh %lqiruphg wudglqj%ri wkh pdunhw pdnhu +t ,1 Klv fdsdflw| wr ohduq e| sodflqj rughuv zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuvghshqgv dovr rq wkh ryhudoo pdunhw yrodwlolw| +,1 Wkh kljkhu wkh pdunhw yrodwlolw|/ wkh ohvvlqirupdwlyh lv wkh uhdfwlrq ri wkh pdunhw pdnhu kh wudghv zlwk1 Zh fdq wkhuhiruh ghqhwkh odz ri prwlrq ri pdunhw pdnhuv* eholhiv rq 1Sursrvlwlrq 4 Wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh srvwhulru suredelolw| ri wkh uhjlph w lv= g bw @ b gw . g +9, wzkhuh bw +4 bw ,+w u , b @ +4 5 bw , @+ , dqg w 2 I gv g @ bw w . +4 bw ,u gw +surri lq Dsshqgl{ D,= v uhsuhvhqwv wkh rz ydoxh ri lqirupdwlrq1 Lw fdq eh uhzulwwhq dv @ … Ebwt bu ru / li … 3zh wdnh wkh orjdulwkp/ oq+ , @ oq+w u , +oq+Lt , oq+L ,, @ oq+w u , . +:,zkhuh fdq eh orrvho| ghqhg dv wkh glhuhqwldo lq lqirupdwlrq ehwzhhq lqfrplqj dqgrxwjrlqj wudgh1 Lw uhsuhvhqwv wkh lqfuhdvh lq lqirupdwlyhqhvv gxh wr wudglqj zlwk lqiruphgpdunhw pdnhuv1 Wkh pdunhw pdnhu/ diwhu kdylqj uhfhlyhg dq rughu kdv eholhiv zkrvh df0fxudf| ghshqgv rq wkh qrlvh ri wkh vljqdo +2 ,1 E| sodflqj rughuv zlwk lqiruphg pdunhw I 43
  • 15. pdnhuv +t , wkh ghdohu lpsuryhv wkh dffxudf| ri klv eholhiv1 Wkh juhdwhu dffxudf| lv uhsuh0vhqwhg e| d wljkwhu glvwulexwlrq ri wkh srvwhulru +vpdoohu bw +4 bw ,,1 Zh fdq wklqn riwklv dv li wkh pdunhw pdnhu zhuh xvlqj wkh uhdfwlrq ri wkh lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv wr klvrughuv dv d uholdelolw| fkhfn iru wkh lqirupdwlrq kh kdv uhfhlyhg zlwk wkh lqfrplqj wudgh122 A i @h!i| @!iht T|4@* Ah@_?} 5|h@|i})Wkh pdunhw pdnhu vroyhv wkh iroorzlqj sureohp= ] Pd{” ™”Ä ™”e7t H ^ h3$r X+ ,gv` +;, r f v=w= = t . t Ä . t e7t @ 4 +,Xvlqj wkh idfw wkdw 4 A A 3 ohw*v ghqh { @ 4 wkdw lv wkh glhuhqfh lq lpsdfw wkdwwudglqj hqgrjhqrxvo| zlwk lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv surgxfhv dv rssrvhg wr fkdqjlqj wkhelg dqg dvn txrwhv1 Wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq ri wkh pdunhw pdnhu fdq wkhq eh h{suhvvhg dv= +4 {, 4 4 4 . tM @ M% +4 t e7t t ,+t .t Ä , .t e7t M% . M%% +t . tÄ ,2 2 . M + 2 , .M| e 2 5 5 +43,zkhuh M% A 3/ M%% ? 3 dqg M| ? 3= M lv wkh vhfrqg ghulydwlyh ri wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq zlwkuhvshfw wr lqirupdwlrq dqg lv dozd|v srvlwlyh1 Zh vhh lpphgldwho| wkdw wkh pdunhw pdnhu ” idfhv wzr wudgh0rv1 Wkh uvw rqh lv ehwzhhq wkh jdlq iurp h{shulphqwdwlrq +  M + n2 , , 2 jdqg wkh frvw lqfxuuhg wr h{shulphqw1 Wklv frvw frqvlvwv ri wkh ri orzhu h{shfwhg uhwxuqgxh wr wkh lpsdfw ri pdunhw pdnhu*v rzq wudglqj rq sulfhv + M% Ej27 t +t . t Ä ,,1 Wkh 3 efrvw lqfuhdvhv zlwk wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuqv +, dqg zlwk wkh lpsdfw ri wudglqj hqgrjhqrxvo| ezlwk lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv + {, dqg ghfuhdvhv zlwk pdunhw yrodwlolw| +2 ,1 Wkh kljkhuwkh h{shfwhg uhwxuq dqg wkh vwurqjhu lv wkh sulfh lpsdfw/ wkh pruh frvwo| lw ehfrphv wriruhjr sduw ri lw e| uhyhdolqj lqirupdwlrq wkurxjk h{shulphqwdwlrq1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/wkh kljkhu wkh yrodwlolw|/ wkh orzhu wkh sulfh lpsdfw dqg wkhuhiruh wkh orzhu wkh frvw rih{shulphqwlqj1 Wkh vhfrqg wudgh0r lv wkh rqh ehwzhhq wkh ehqhwv ri jrlqj h{rjhqrxv +t e7t , dqgwkh frvw ri grlqj vr + M% t e7t +t . tÄ ,,1 Wklv frvw lv djdlq h{suhvvhg lq whupv ri iruhjrqh esurwv dqg/ dv ehiruh/ lv d gluhfw ixqfwlrq ri pdunhw h{shfwhg uhwxuqv +,1 Vroylqj wkh e 44
  • 16. rswlpl}dwlrq sureohp ghqhg lq htxdwlrqv ; dqg zh fdq ghqh wkh rswlpdo dprxqw rih{shulphqwdwlrq1Sursrvlwlrq 5 Wkh rswlpdo dprxqw ri wudgh zlwk wkh lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv lv= 5 ^+{ e 4,u . M ` u M t @ = 52 u+{ 4,2 e
  • 17. ,4ThU@* +it|hU|L?tWkh prgho frqwdlqv whvwdeoh uhvwulfwlrqv1 Zh xvh wkhvh wr ghwhuplqh zkhwkhu pdunhwpdnhuv ohduq iurp wkh rughuv wkh| uhfhlyh dqg li wkh| uhdfw vhohfwlyho| dqg vwudwhjlfdoo|wr wkh rqhv fkdudfwhul}hg e| kljkhu lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh zdqw wr whvwzkhwkhu h{shulphqwdwlrq lv rqh ri wkh vwudwhjlhv pdunhw pdnhuv sod|1 K|srwkhvlv 4= Pdunhw pdnhuv uhvruw wr hqgrjhqrxv wudgh pruh iuhtxhqwo|lq fdvh zkhuh wkh| uhfhlyh sulylohjhg lqirupdwlrq1 Li wkh ghflvlrq ri wkh pdunhw pdnhu wr sodfh rughuv gluhfwo| zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuvlv pdlqo| lqirupdwlrq0gulyhq/ zh vkrxog revhuyh pdunhw pdnhuv uhvruwlqj wr hqgrjhqrxvwudgh pruh iuhtxhqwo| lq fdvhv zkhuh wkh| uhfhlyh sulylohjhg lqirupdwlrq1 Iurp Htxdwlrq+:, lw iroorzv wkdw= M M L +w u , t ec•t @ t . t Ä @ @ @ i +L ,= +44, 5u+4 e {, 5u+4 e {, LtWklv lpsolhv d srvlwlyh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq wkh ghflvlrq ri jrlqj hqgrjhqrxv dqg wkh lq0irupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh lqfrplqj wudgh +L ,1 Wkh rssrvlwh lv wuxh iru h{rjhqrxv wudgh zklfklv= 5+4 {,u M e t e7t @ @ i + L ,= +45, 5u+4 {, eWkdw lv/ lqirupdwlrq0gulyhq wudghv vkrxog kdyh kljkhu srzhu wr h{sodlq hqgrjhqrxv wudghvwkdq wr h{sodlq h{rjhqrxv rqhv1 Lqghhg/ li wkh pdunhw pdnhu rqo| zdqwv wr uhedodqfhklv lqyhqwru|/ kh fdq vlpso| fkdqjh wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv1 Hqgrjhqrxv wudgh/ krzhyhu/dovr suhvhqwv wkh pdunhw pdnhu zlwk wkh rssruwxqlw| wr h{sorlw klv lqirupdwlrq1 Wklvlpsolhv wkdw lqyhqwru|0uhedodqflqj vkrxog eh pdlqo| uhodwhg wr h{rjhqrxv wudglqj/ zkloh 45
  • 18. lqirupdwlrq0h{sorlwdwlrq vkrxog eh pruh fruuhodwhg wr hqgrjhqrxv wudglqj1 Wkhuhiruh/ wkhghflvlrq wr wudgh hqgrjhqrxvo| vkrxog eh vwurqjhvw lq wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh lqfrplqj wudghlv yhu| lqirupdwlyh/ dqg zhdnhvw lq wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh lqfrplqj wudgh lv xqlqirupdwlyh1 K|srwkhvlv 5= Pdunhw pdnhuv* vwudwhjlf ehkdylru rq wkh vhfrqgdu| pdunhwvkrxog fkdqjh dw wkh wlph ri wkh dxfwlrq1 Wkh vwudwhjlf ehkdylru ri wkh pdunhw pdnhu vkrxog fkdqjh zkhq vrph lqirupdwlrqdohyhqw prglhv wkh glhuhqfh lq frvw ehwzhhq wudglqj hqgrjhqrxvo| dqg wudglqj h{rjhqrxvo|+{ ,1 Wkh lqfhqwlyh wr wudgh h{rjhqrxvo| lv d ixqfwlrq ri {= Ct e7t M @ ? 31 +46, C{ 5u+{ 4,2 eWkdw lv/ h{rjhqrxv wudgh gursv zkhq wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh frvw ri jrlqj h{rjhqrxv dqgwkh frvw ri jrlqj hqgrjhqrxv +{ , lqfuhdvhv1 Lq wkh fdvh ri wkh Wuhdvxu| erqgv pdunhw/ wkhWuhdvxu| dxfwlrq lv wkh hyhqw zkhq jrlqj h{rjhqrxv lv vxevwdqwldoo| pruh frvwo| wkdq jrlqjhqgrjhqrxv1 Lqghhg/ wkh dxfwlrq surylghv vrph ghdohuv zlwk dq lqirupdwlrq dgydqwdjh dvwkh pdunhw pdnhuv zkr lqwhuphgldwh wkh eljjhvw vkduh ri erqgv ehlqj dxfwlrqhg r kdyhdgglwlrqdo lqirupdwlrq derxw wkh ryhudoo pdunhw ghpdqg vfkhgxoh dqg oltxlglw| vkrfnv1 Dwwkh vdph wlph/ wkh dxfwlrq dovr surylghv wkh lqiruphg ghdohuv zlwk d zd| ri h{sorlwlqj wklvlqirupdwlrq zlwkrxw uhyhdolqj lw1 Wkhuhiruh/ fkdqjlqj wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv ehiruh wkhdxfwlrq ehfrphv pruh h{shqvlyh dv lw uhyhdov lqirupdwlrq wkdw frxog eh xvhg surwdeo|erwk lq wkh vhfrqgdu| pdunhw dqg dw wkh dxfwlrq1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw lq jhqhudo zh h{shfwd uhgxfwlrq ri h{rjhqrxv wudgh dqg dq lqfuhdvh ri hqgrjhqrxv wudgh wkh gd| ehiruh wkhdxfwlrq1 Dovr/ wkh uhdfwlrq vkrxog glhu dffruglqj wr wkh delolw| ri wkh pdunhw pdnhuv dw wkhdxfwlrq1 Wkh %pruh fdsdeoh% pdunhw pdnhuv 0l1h1 wkh rqhv zkr kdyh ehwwhu lqirupdwlrq dwwkh dxfwlrq 0 fdq drug uhgxflqj erwk h{rjhqrxv dqg hqgrjhqrxv wudgh/ dv wkh| fdq phhwwkh ghpdqg dw wkh dxfwlrq wkh| lqwhuphgldwh1 Krzhyhu/ ohvv fdsdeoh pdunhw pdnhuv/ ehlqjpruh xqfhuwdlq derxw wkh uhvxowv ri wkh dxfwlrq/ kdyh wr wudgh lq wkh vhfrqgdu| pdunhwlq rughu wr phhw wkh ghpdqg ri erqgv wkh| lqwhuphgldwh12 Wkhuhiruh/ zh h{shfw wkdw lq 2 `i _i@* | | i U@ti ihi | i ML?_t L? @ U|L? @hi UL4T*i|i*) _i?|U@* @?_ u ?}M*i |L | i L?it@*hi@_) |h@_i_ ? | i tiUL?_@h) 4@h!i| A t t ?_ii_ | i U@ti uLh | i W|@*@? 4@h!i| @t i T*@?i_ ?5iU|L? e 46
  • 19. wkh shulrg ehiruh wkh dxfwlrq wkh pruh lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv gudvwlfdoo| uhgxfh dq|lqirupdwlrq0uhodwhg wudglqj dfwlylw|/ zkloh wkh ohvv lqiruphg rqhv fkdqqho prvw ri wkhludfwlylw| wkurxjk ohvv lqirupdwlrq0uhyhdolqj hqgrjhqrxv wudgh1 K|srwkhvlv 6= Pdunhw pdnhuv vwudwhjlfdoo| vhohfw wkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuvwr dssurdfk lq rughu wr hlwkhu lqfuhdvh wkhlu lqirupdwlrq +%h{shulphqwdwlrq%,ru klgh lw +%klglqj%,1 Li rughu rzv duh lqirupdwlyh dqg pdunhw pdnhuv uhdfw vwudwhjlfdoo| wr wkhp/ wkhghflvlrq wr jr hqgrjhqrxv hqwdlov wkh vhohfwlyh fkrlfh ri wkh frxqwhusduwv zlwk zkrp wrwudgh1 D pdunhw pdnhu uhdfwlqj wr wkh lqirupdwlrq frqwdlqhg lq dq lqfrplqj rughu kdv wrghflgh krz wr xvh vxfk lqirupdwlrq1 Li kh lv frqghqw derxw lwv txdolw|/ kh fdq wu| wr %klgh%klv lqirupdwlrq dqg h{sorlw lw e| wudglqj zlwk d ghdohu ohvv lqiruphg wkdq wkh rqh zkr kdvklw klp1 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ wkh pdunhw pdnhu pd| zdqw wr lqfuhdvh klv lqirupdwlyhqhvv dqg_h{shulphqw%/ e| sodflqj rughuv zlwk pruh lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv1 Zh fdq wkhuhiruhghqh wzr w|shv ri vwudwhjlhv= klglqj dqg h{shulphqwlqj1 Wkh qhw ehqhw ri sodflqj rughuv zlwk lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv lv d srvlwlyh ixqfwlrqri wkh rz ydoxh iurp h{shulphqwdwlrq + ,1 Xvlqj wkh ghqlwlrq ri +htxdwlrq :, zhfdq uhodwh wkh ghflvlrq wr sodfh dq rughu zlwk lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv wr wkh glhuhqwldoehwzhhq wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohu zkr lv sodflqj wkh rughu dqg wkdw riwkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhu zkrp wkh %klw% pdunhw pdnhu lv dssurdfklqj1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zhkdyh wkdw= Ct M +5 u, e @ 2 = +47, C 5 u+{ 4,2 eWklv lpsolhv wkdw= Ct Ct A 3 li u lv kljk dqg ? 3 li u lv orz1 +48, C CWkdw lv/ ghshqglqj rq wkh ghjuhh ri ulvn dyhuvlrq +u,/ pdunhw pdnhuv fdq eh glylghg lqwrwzr jurxsv zklfk zh zrxog fdoo %vqhdnlhv% dqg %vnhswlfv%1 Vnhswlfv sodfh wkhlu wudgh zlwkfrxqwhusduwv zkr duh pruh lqiruphg wkdq wkh rqhv zkrp wkh| duh uhfhlylqj wkhlu rughuviurp1 Vqhdnlhv sodfh wkhlu rughuv zlwk frxqwhusduwv zkr duh ohvv lqiruphg wkdq wkh rqhvzkrp wkh| duh uhfhlylqj wkhlu rughuv iurp1 Wkh lqwxlwlrq lv wkdw wkh iruphu wu| wr ohduq 47
  • 20. e| klwwlqj pruh lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv/ zkloh wkh odwwhu rqo| dssurdfk wkh ohvv lqiruphgrqhv lq rughu wr klgh wkhlu lqirupdwlrq1 Wkh vnhswlfv duh pruh ulvn dyhuvh dqg/ wkhuhiruh/dwwhpsw wr ohduq1 Wkh vqhdnlhv duh rqo| frqfhuqhg zlwk surwv dqg wkhuhiruh dwwhpsw wrklgh wkhlu lqirupdwlrq wr h{sorlw lw ehwwhu1 Hpslulfdoo| wklv lpsolhv wkdw/ lq wkh fdvh ri klglqj/ zh h{shfw d qhjdwlyh uhodwlrqvklsehwzhhq wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohu zkr sodfhv wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh dqgwkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh pdunhw pdnhuv zlwk zkrp wkh klw pdunhw pdnhusodfhv dq rughu1 Lq wkh fdvh ri h{shulphqwlqj/ rq wkh frqwudu|/ d srvlwlyh uhodwlrqvkls lvsuhglfwhg1 K|srwkhvlv 7= Pdunhw pdnhuv* uhdfwlrq wr pdunhw yrodwlolw| ghshqgv rq wkhvwudwhj| wkh| sod|1 Yrodwlolw| lqfuhdvhv vqhdnlhv* lqiruphg hqgrjhqrxv wudghdqg uhgxfhv vnhswlfv*v rqh1 Lq whupv ri wkh uhodwlrqvkls zlwk wkh pdunhw yrodwlolw| wkh wzr fodvvhv ri pdunhw pdnhuvglvsod| rssrvlwh ehkdylru1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ Ct +M e . u+{ 4,, M u @ = +49, C 2 2 u+{ 4,2 eWklv lpsolhv wkdw= Ct Ct ? 3 li u lv kljk dqg A 3 li u lv orz1 +4:, C2 C2wkdw lv/ kljkhu xqfhuwdlqw| lq wkh pdunhw kdv d qhjdwlyh lpsdfw rq h{shulphqwdwlrq iruwkh vnhswlfv dqg d srvlwlyh rqh iru wkh vqhdnlhv1 Wkh uhdvrq fdq eh irxqg lq wkh dyhuvlrqwr ulvn= wkh kljkhu wkh yrodwlolw|/ wkh kljkhu wkh ulvn/ wkh ohvv wkh vnhswlfv h{shulphqw/ dqgwkhuhiruh wkh ohvv wkh| uhvruw wr hqgrjhqrxv wudgh1 Wkh rssrvlwh lv wuxh iru wkh vqhdnlhvzkr/ ehlqj ohvv ulvn dyhuvh/ xvh wkh rssruwxqlw| surylghg e| kljkhu yrodwlolw| wr klgh wkhluwudgh ehwwhu1 Wklv doorzv wkhp wr lqfuhdvh wkhlu hqgrjhqrxv wudgh1e A i @h!i| @?_ | i #@|@ti|Lq Lwdo|/ wkhuh duh wkuhh pdlq w|shv ri wudghg erqgv= Wuhdvxu| Qrwhv/ Wuhdvxu| Erqgvdqg qdqfldoo| lqgh{hg erqgv1 Wuhdvxu| Erqgv +Exrql gho whvrur Srolhqqdol/ ru EWS, duhphglxp0 dqg orqj0whup frxsrq erqgv1 Ilqdqfldoo| lqgh{hg erqgv +Fhuwlfdwl gl Fuhglwr 48
  • 21. gho whvrur ru FFW, duh phglxp0orqj whup frxsrq erqgv zlwk wkh ydoxh ri wkh frxsrq lq0gh{hg wr vkruw0whup Wuhdvxu| Eloov1 Wuhdvxu| Qrwhv +Fhuwlfdwl gho Whvrur d ]hur Frxsrq/ru FW], duh 50|hdu }hur0frxsrq erqgv1 Erqgv duh prvwo|
  • 22. wudghg rq dq lqwhu0ghdohu edvhg Wuhdvxu| Erqg Pdunhw +PhufdwrWhohpdwlfr ghl wlwrol gl Vwdwr/ PWV,1 Wkh PWV pdunhw lv d vfuhhq0edvhg v|vwhp/ rshudwlqjehwzhhq 133 d1p1 dqg 8133 s1p1 Wkhuh duh wkuhh w|shv ri ghdohuv wudglqj rq wkh PWV= ruglqdu| ghdohuv +dssur{lpdwho|693,/ ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv +73, dqg _sulpdu| ghdohuv% ru _vshfldolvwv%+49,1 Rqo| edqnv/lqyhvwphqw upv dqg lqvxudqfh frpsdqlhv duh doorzhg wr dfw dv ghdohuv1 Ruglqdu| ghdohuvpd| rqo| sodfh rughuv zlwk pdunhw pdnhuv dqg fdqqrw srvw elg dqg dvn sulfhv1 Pdunhwpdnhuv frpplw wkhpvhoyhv wr frqwlqxrxvo| srvwlqj elg dqg dvn sulfhv1 Wkh| pd| sodfhrughuv zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv1e Vshfldolvwv duh pdunhw pdnhuv zkr pxvw wudgh d plql0pxp shufhqwdjh ri hdfk w|sh ri erqg rq wkh vhfrqgdu| pdunhw dqg sxufkdvh d plqlpxpshufhqwdjh ri wkh erqgv ehlqj dxfwlrqhg r dw hdfk dxfwlrq1 Lq h{fkdqjh iru rshudwlqjzlwklq pruh elqglqj wudglqj uhtxluhphqwv/ wkh| hqmr| uh0qdqflqj ehqhwv/ ehlqj hqwlwohgwr eruurz dw d sduwlfxodu frqyhqlhqw udwh dw wkh glvfrxqw zlqgrz ri wkh Edqn ri Lwdo|1 Hdfk vlqjoh wudghu +ruglqdu| ghdohu/ ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhu dqg sulpdu| ghdohu, kdvdffhvv wr d vfuhhq zkhuh kh fdq revhuyh wkh elg dqg dvn sulfhv wkh ghdohuv +erwk vshfldolvwvdqg ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv, srvw dqg wkh pd{lpxp qxpehu ri erqgv wkh| frpplw wkhp0vhoyhv wr wudgh +ghswk,1 Pdunhw pdnhuv duh qrw dqrq|prxv h{ dqwh1 Wkdw lv/ wkh qdph riwkh pdunhw pdnhu dsshduv rq wkh vfuhhq qh{w wr wkh elg dqg dvn sulfhv kh lv srvwlqj1 Zkloh hdfk ghdohu nqrzv wkh lghqwlw| rqo| ri wkh frxqwhusduw zlwk zkrp kh lv wudglqj/qr pdunhw sduwlflsdqw +ruglqdu| ghdohu/ ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhu ru vshfldolvw, nqrzv wkhlghqwlwlhv ri rwkhu pdunhw sduwlflsdqwv lqyroyhg lq d wudqvdfwlrq lq zklfk kh lv qrw gluhfwo|lqyroyhg1 Wklv pdnhv PWV yhu| vlplodu wr QDVGDT1 Wkh wudqvdfwlrq wdnhv sodfh rqo| dw wkh srvwhg sulfh1 Zkhq lw lv h{hfxwhg/ wkh qdphri wkh ghdohu _klw% eolqnv/ vljqdoolqj wr wkh pdunhw wkdw kh lv wudglqj dqg olvwlqj wkh sulfh
  • 23. L?_t @hi @*Lt |h@_i_ L? | i *@? 5|LU! , U @?}i OLiihc | i Lih i*4?} 4@Lh|) Lu |h@_i ?Ahi@t h) L?_t |@!it T*@Ui L? | i A5 A i ? 4Mih Lu ML?_t |h@_i_ L? | i 5|LU! , U @?}i t *4|i_@?_ ThUit hiiU| | i L?it _i|ih4?i_ ? | i A5 e A i) | _h@ |i4TLh@h*) uhL4 | i 4@h!i| u | i) hiUii @? Lh_ih i^ @* |L | i 4@ 4 4 ? 4MihLu ML?_t | i) @hi UL44|i_ |L |h@_i 49
  • 24. dw zklfk wkh wudgh wdnhv sodfh1 Wkh yroxph ri wkh wudqvdfwlrq lv qhyhu uhyhdohg/ h{fhswlq wkh uduh fdvh zkhq d ghdohu uhfhlyhv dq rughu htxdo wr wkh pd{lpxp qxpehu ri erqgvkh kdv frpplwwhg klpvhoi wr wudgh1 Lq wkdw fdvh/ kh dxwrpdwlfdoo| zlwkgudzv iurp wkhpdunhw iru d shulrg qrw orqjhu wkdq 93 vhfrqgv1 D Wklv zlwkgudzdo lv wkh rqo| vljqdo wkhpdunhw uhfhlyhv derxw wkh vl}h ri wkh wudqvdfwlrq1 Dqdorjrxvo| wr wkh I[ pdunhw +O|rqv 48,/ wkh vorz glxvlrq ri lqirupdwlrq yldlqwhughdohu wudgh lv idflolwdwhg e| wkh devhqfh ri wudgh uhsruwlqj +hyhq h{ srvw,1 Rqo|djjuhjdwh jxuhv iru wkh zkroh pdunhw duh dydlodeoh dw wkh hqg ri wkh gd|1 Wkh vfuhhq0edvhg v|vwhp lv wudqvsduhqw wr wkh jhqhudo sxeolf/ dqg wkh ehvw elg dqg dvn sulfhv duhuhsruwhg rq d vshflf sdjh e| Uhxwhuv1 S Wkh sulpdu| Wuhdvxu| erqg pdunhw lv edvhg rq xqlirup w|sh dxfwlrqv1 Wkh vfkhgxohri wkh dxfwlrqv lv frppxqlfdwhg e| wkh Wuhdvxu| dw wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wkh |hdu/ zkloh wkhqxpehu ri erqgv wkdw wr eh dxfwlrqhg r lv dqqrxqfhg rqh zhhn ehiruh1 Wkh rfldovxeplvvlrq ri wkh ghpdqgv dw wkh dxfwlrq wdnhv sodfh wkurxjk d frpsxwhul}hg vfuhhq0edvhg v|vwhp1 Hdfk sduwlflsdqw lq wkh dxfwlrq lv lqiruphg ri wkh dprxqw kh kdv ehhqdoorwwhg/ zkloh wkh pdunhw dv zkroh lv lqiruphg ri wkh wrwdo qxpehu dvvljqhg/ wkh dxfwlrqsulfh dqg wkh fryhu udwlr/ wkdw lv/ wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh qxpehu ri erqgv ghpdqghg dqgwkh qxpehu doorwwhg1 Wr lqfuhdvh wkh ghswk ri wkh pdunhw/ wkh Wuhdvxu| lvvxhv wkh vdpherqgv uhshdwhgo| +_uhrshqv wkh dxfwlrq%,1 Wkh gdwdvhw frqwdlqv doo wkh wudqvdfwlrqv iurp 5 Vhswhpehu 47 wr 5; Iheuxdu| 49iru doo wkh olvwhg erqgv +wrwdo ri 6:,1 Lq doo/ wkh| wrwdo 4/66/76: wudqvdfwlrqv1 Iru hdfkwudqvdfwlrq/ zh kdyh gdwd vkrzlqj wkh wlph dw zklfk wkh wudqvdfwlrq lv h{hfxwhg/ wkh vl}hri wkh wudqvdfwlrq/ wkh sulfh dqg wkh qdph ri wkh frxqwhusduwv dqg wkh lghqwlfdwlrq riwkh ghdohu zkr ruljlqdwhg wkh wudqvdfwlrq1 Ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv ri wkh gdwd duh uhsruwhglq Wdeoh 41 D W| U@? Mi it|4@|i_ | @| L? @ih@}i | t LUU hhi_ *itt | @? Dff |4it ? L h t@4T*i S ** | i |h@?t@U|L?t @hi ti||*i_ | hL } @ t)t|i4 L?i_ @?_ LTih@|i_ M) @ UL4T@?) | @| @U|t @t @t Mt_@h) Lu | i i?|h@* @?! E5W A i |h@?t@U|L?t @hi @*tL UL?|? L t*) 4L?|Lhi_ M) | i i?|h@*@?! |ti*uc U @t |L U iU! u | i _i@*iht 4ii| | i hi^ hi4i?|t ? |ih4t Lu | i UL?|? L t TLt|?} LuM_@t! ThUitc | i 4?4 4 ? 4Mih Lu |h@?t@U|L?t i iU |i_ Tih U@|i}Lh) Lu ML?_ @?_ | i t3i Lu | i M_@?_ @t! tThi@_ Bi? | @| | i i?|h@* @?! @*tL @U|t @t @ U*i@h?} L ti @?_ ThL_ih Lu *^ _|) |L | i L*i ?|ihM@?! T@)4i?|t ti||*i4i?| t)t|i4c | i Uhi_|Lh| ?itt Lu | i _i@*iht t 4T*U|*) } @h@?|ii_M) | i i?|h@* @?! |ti*u 4:
  • 25. Wr irfxv rq wkh uhdfwlrq ri wkh pdunhw pdnhu/ zh frqvlghu wkh wudqvdfwlrqv iroorzlqjwkh ruljlqdwlqj rqh1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ iru hdfk wudqvdfwlrq/ zh frqvlghu doo wkh wudqvdfwlrqv riwkh vdph pdunhw pdnhu lq wkh iroorzlqj 43 plqxwhv1 Wkhvh frpsulvh erwk wkh dgglwlrqdorughuv sodfhg zlwk wkh pdunhw pdnhu +h{rjhqrxv wudgh, dqg wkh rughuv wkdw kh sodfhv zlwkwkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv +hqgrjhqrxv wudgh,1 Zh ghqh dv hqgrjhqrxv wudgh wkh dprxqwri wudgh rq wkh n0wk erqg wkdw lv hqgrjhqrxvo| ruljlqdwhg e| wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu/ zkhqkh sodfhv dq rughu zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv1 H{rjhqrxv wudgh/ rq wkh frqwudu|/ uhsuhvhqwvwkh dprxqw ri wudgh rq wkh n0wk erqg wkdw lv qrw gluhfwo| ruljlqdwhg e| m0wk pdunhw pdnhu1Lw frxog frph wr klp hlwkhu iru pdunhw h{rjhqrxv uhdvrqv ru ehfdxvh lw lv lqgxfhg e| dfkdqjh lq wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv kh srvwv1 Wkh vdpsoh kdv ehhq glylghg lqwr _gd|v ehiruh wkh dxfwlrq% dqg _doo rwkhu gd|v%1Wkh hvwlpdwhv iru _gd|v ehiruh wkh dxfwlrq% . duh pdgh rqo| iru wkh erqgv wkdw duhdxfwlrqhg wkh qh{w gd|1 Doo wkh hvwlpdwlrqv duh fduulhg rxw xvlqj Kdqvhq*v Jhqhudol}hgPhwkrg ri Prphqwv/ zlwk fruuhfwlrq rq wkh yduldqfh0fryduldqfh pdwul{ wr frqwuro iru erwkkhwhurvfhgdvwlflw| dqg dxwrfruuhodwlrq1 Lq rughu wr ghdo zlwk wkh jhqhudwhg uhjuhvvruv lqrxu hvwlpdwlrqv/ zh dgrsw wkh Sdjdq*v +4;7, dssurdfk edvhg rq lqvwuxphqwdo yduldeohhvwlpdwlrq1D OG ,?_L}i?L t Ah@_i @?_ W?uLh4@|L?D _i€?|L? Lu | i W?uLh4@|i?itt Lu Ah@_iWkh lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wkh lqfrplqj wudgh fdq eh lqihuuhg e| orrnlqj dw wkh ghdohuzkr kdv ruljlqdwhg wkh wudgh1 Dv Fr{ dqg Uxelqvwhlq +4;8/ s1 ;4, srlqwhg rxw= %iurp shukdsv elwwhu h{shulhqfh pdunhw pdnhuv ohduq wr lghqwli| olnho| lqupdwlrq wudghuv1%Wkdw lv/ hdfk pdunhw pdnhu ohduqv derxw wkh ghjuhh ri wkh lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh rwkhupdunhw pdnhuv kh lv wudglqj zlwk e| vlpso| orrnlqj dw wkh ehkdylru ri sulfhv lq wkh shulrgiroorzlqj wkh wudqvdfwlrq kh hhfwhg zlwk wkhp1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ d ghdohu zkr frqvlvwhqwo|ex|v ehiruh sulfhv ulvh dqg vhoov ehiruh wkh| gurs lv fodvvlhg dv _lqiruphg%1 Wudglqj doorzvwkh pdunhw pdnhu wr xsgdwh frqwlqxrxvo| klv sulruv rq wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri . A i _@)t MiuLhi | i @ U|L? @hi _i€?i_ @t | i TihL_ ULih?} | i L*i |h@_?} _@) MiuLhi | i@ U|L? @?_ | i 4Lh??} Lu | i @ U|L? MiuLhi | i _i@_*?i |L t M4| | i M_t 4;
  • 26. wkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv dqg wkhuhiruh rq wkh lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wkh lqfrplqj wudgh/ghqhg lq whupv ri wkh ghdohu ruljlqdwlqj lw1 Wkh sulruv rq rwkhu ghdohuv ehfrph wkh edvlvri pdunhw pdnhuv* dvvhvvphqw ri wkh txdolw| ri lqirupdwlrq frqwdlqhg lq wkh wudgh wkh|uhfhlyh1 Zh zloo uhihu lqwhufkdqjhdeo| wr wkh lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wudgh dqg wr wkhghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohu ruljlqdwlqj lw1 Zh orrn dw wkh fkdqjhv lq sulfhv riwkh vdph erqg lq wkh 8 plqxwhv wkdw iroorz hdfk wudqvdfwlrq dqg/ iru hdfk pdunhw pdnhum/ zh uxq wkh dx{loldu| uhjuhvvlrq= S8™| @ W8™| . %8™| +4;,lq d sdluzlvh uhodwlrq yhuvxv doo wkh rwkhu l ghdohuv iru hdfk lqglylgxdo erqg n1 Zh ghqhW8™| dv wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri vljqhg wudghv uhfhlyhg e| wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu iurp wkhl0wk ghdohu iru wkh n0wk erqg dw wlph w1 S8™| @ +S8™|nD S8™| , lv wkh fkdqjh lq wkhsulfh ri wkh n0wk erqg lq wkh 8 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh wudqvdfwlrq1 Iroorzlqj Pdgkdydq/Ulfkdugvrq dqg Urrpdqv +4:,/ zh xvh wkh dfwxdo wudqvdfwlrq sulfhv1 Wkh surfhgxuh zhiroorz wr lghqwli| wudghv zlwk srvvleoh lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw lv uhplqlvfhqw ri wkh vwdwlvwlfdosurfhgxuh wkdw vshfldolvwv xvh wr lghqwli| wkh lqirupdwlrq0gulyhq wudgh ruljlqdwhg e| wkheurnhuv dw wkh QVH +Ehqyhqlvwh/ Pdufxv dqg Zlokhop 45,1 Wkh frhflhqw uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh vshflf l0wk ghdohuzkr lv sodflqj wkh rughu/ dv shufhlyhg e| wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu1H D vljqlfdqw ydoxh ri lpsolhv wkdw wkh ghdohu lv lqiruphg1 Wkh juhdwhu wkh ydoxh ri wkh frhflhqw/ wkh kljkhuwkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohu lv/ dqg wkh juhdwhu wkh lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqwri wkh rughu uhfhlyhg1 b Lq Wdeoh 5/ zh uhsruw wkh uhvxowv ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri Htxdwlrq +4;,1 Wkh| vkrzhylghqfh ri dq lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wudghv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ li @ 3=334 iru d orw rivwdqgdug vl}h ri 8 eloolrq oluh/ wkh h{shfwhg sulfh lpsdfw lv ri wkh rughu ri 318 es1 Wkhdyhudjh sulfh lpsdfw ri d wudgh lqwhuphgldwhg e| d vshfldolvw lv derxw 3198 es/ zkloh wkhsulfh lpsdfw ri d wudgh lqwhuphgldwhg e| dq ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhu lv derxw 31:8 es1 Wkh ghdohuv zkr duh shufhlyhg dv ehlqj pruh lqiruphg/ erwk lq whupv ri ydoxh ri wkh H AL U iU! | i hLM t|?itt Lu | i hit *|tc i i Tih4i?| | _gihi?| R*i@h??} ?_Lt 6Lh _i|@*tctii TTi?_ b AL @L_ ThLM*i4t _ i |L | ? |h@_?}c i UL?t_ih L?*) | i @* it Lu | @| @hi t}?€U@?| @| | iDI *ii*c @?_ uLh | i hi}hittL? | @| *i@t| D |h@_it 4
  • 27. frhflhqw + , dqg lwv vljqlfdqfh +w0vwdwlvwlfv,/ duh wkh vshfldolvwv1 Wklv wv zlwk rxulqwxlwlrq1 Jlyhq wkdw wkh vshfldolvwv duh wkh eljjhvw wudghuv/ wkh| duh pruh olnho| wr ehlqiruphg1 Iru wkh vdph uhdvrq/ wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv lv orzhu iru ruglqdu| pdunhwpdnhuv dqg wkh orzhvw iru ruglqdu| ghdohuv1 Lw lv lpsruwdqw wr qrwh wkdw d vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw fdswxuhv wkh whpsrudu| lq0irupdwlrqdo dgydqwdjh ri wkh ghdohu l ryhu ghdohu m dw d jlyhq wlph1 Rq dyhudjh/ wkhsuredelolw| ri jlyhq wr uhpdlq vljqlfdqw dw 8( ohyho diwhu wkuhh gd|v lv rqo| 3179 dqgjrhv grzq wr 314:: lq 43 gd|v1 Wkxv/ vshflfdwlrq +4;, lv fdswxulqj rqo| wkh whpsrudu|lqirupdwlrqdo dgydqwdjh wkdw lv uhodwhg wr %vhpl0ixqgdphqwdo lqirupdwlrq% olnh rughu rzvru oltxlglw| vkrfnv +Iohplqj dqg Uhprorqd 4,1D2 6ht| Ait| Lu 5|h@|i}U i @LhZh fdq qrz whvw krz wklv lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw lv uhodwhg wr pdunhw pdnhuv* ehkdylru1 Zhfrqvlghu d olqhdu vshflfdwlrq zkhuh hqgrjhqrxv dv zhoo dv h{rjhqrxv wudgh duh gluhfwo|uhodwhg wr wkh lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wkh lqfrplqj wudgh1 Wkh jhqhudo whvw lv= v8™| @ . T8™| . L™| . 2 . g . %8™| 8™| +4,zkhuh v8™| lv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq hqgrjhqrxv wudgh dqg wrwdo wudgh ri wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhuiru wkh n0wk erqg lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh +wlph w,1 Lw uhsuhvhqwvwkh %vkduh% ri hqgrjhqrxv wudgh ryhu wrwdo wudgh1 T8™| lv wkh vl}h ri wkh rughu zklfk wkhm0wk pdunhw pdnhu uhfhlyhv e| l0wk ghdohu +wkh %ruljlqdwlqj ghdohu%, iru wkh n0wk erqg dwwlph w1f L™| uhsuhvhqwv d phdvxuh ri wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh l0wk ghdohu dvshufhlyhg e| wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu1 Dv dowhuqdwlyh phdvxuhv ri wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh pdunhw pdnhu zh frq0vlghu= wkh ydoxh ri wkh frhflhqw +dv hvwlpdwhg lq Htxdwlrq 4;,/ lwv vwdwlvwlfdo vljqli0lfdqfh +s0ydoxh, dqg wkh surgxfw ehwzhhq wkh wzr + wlphv s0ydoxh,1 Wkh uvw sur{|uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh vshflf l0wk pdunhw pdnhu zkr lv sodflqjwkh rughu/ dv shufhlyhg e| wkh m0wk ghdohu/ wkh vhfrqg uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghjuhh ri dffxudf| riwkh vljqdo dqg wkh wklug sur{lhv iru wkh %h{shfwhg% ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohu12 lv d sur{| ri pdunhw xqfhuwdlqw| dw wkh wlph zkhq wkh pdunhw pdnhu uhfhlyhv wkh 8™| f L| |h@_i @?_ Lh_iht @hi i Thitti_ ? @MtL* |i @* i 53
  • 28. lqfrplqj rughuv1 Lw lv ghqhg dv wkh yduldqfh rq wkh n0wk erqg lq wkh 43 plqxwhv ehiruhwkh ruljlqdwlqj wudqvdfwlrq/ zkloh g lv d gxpp| wkdw frqwurov iru pdunhw pdnhu*v lglrv|q0fudwlf fkdudfwhulvwlfv1 Vdpsolqj lv edvhg rq wudqvdfwlrq wlph1 Wkh dqdo|vlv lv fduulhg rxwglvdjjuhjdwhg dw wkh ohyho ri lqglylgxdo pdunhw pdnhuv1 Wkh uhvwulfwlrqv lpsrvhg e| Htxdwlrqv +44, dqg +45, srvwxodwh wkdw A 3= Wkdw lv/ wkhlqfhqwlyh wr wudgh hqgrjhqrxvo| lqfuhdvhv zlwk wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohuzkr sodfhv wkh rughu1 Ru/ wkh kljkhu wkh lqirupdwlyhqhvv +L™| , ri wkh wudghu sodflqj wkhrughu/ wkh pruh wkh pdunhw pdnhu vkrxog uhdfw wr klv rughu e| jrlqj hqgrjhqrxv1 Wdeoh 6/ Sdqhov D dqg E uhsruw wkh uhvxowv erwk dw wkh djjuhjdwh pdunhw ohyho dqgjurxshg e| w|sh ri ghdohu dffruglqj wr wkh lqvwlwxwlrqdo fodvvlfdwlrq1 Wkh| vxssruwwkh k|srwkhvlv ri fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wudgh dqg wkh fkrlfh rijrlqj hqgrjhqrxv1 Wkh idfw wkdw ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv dqg vshfldolvwv dozd|v suhihuhqgrjhqrxv wudgh wr h{rjhqrxv wudgh lv vkrzq e| wkh srvlwlyh ydoxh ri wkh frhflhqwv+, dqg e| wkh kljk vljqlfdqfh ri wkhlu w0vwdwlvwlfv1 Dvvxplqj wkh vdph sulfh lpsdfwri wkh lqfrplqj wudqvdfwlrqv/ wkh vkduh ri hqgrjhqrxv wudgh lqfuhdvhv e| 6( iru d 4(lpsuryhphqw lq wkh txdolw| ri wkh vljqdo +dv phdvxuhg e| s0ydoxh,1 Wkh lpsdfw lv vrphzkdwodujhu iru vshfldolvwv +616(, dqg orzhu iru ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv +518(,1S O2G 5|h@|i}U i @Lh ? | i hL 4|) Lu | i U|L?Lq wkh sur{lplw| ri wkh dxfwlrq/ wkh h{sodqdwru| srzhu ri wkh whvwv frqvlghuhg lq wkhsuhylrxv vhfwlrq vkrxog fkdqjh1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh uhvwulfwlrq lpsrvhg e| Htxdwlrq 46,wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh dvvxpswlrq ri glhuhqw delolw| ri wkh pdunhw pdnhuv dw wkh dxfwlrquhtxluhv qrw wr eh vljqlfdqw iru wkh %pruh fdsdeoh% pdunhw pdnhuv1 Iru wkh ohvv fdsdeohrqhv/ lqvwhdg/ •dC uestoe dă|tc A ctc3dă|tc •dCr 1 Zh dvvxph wkdw wkh vshfldolvwv duh wkh pdunhw pdnhuv pruh fdsdeoh dw wkh dxfwlrq1Lqghhg/ wkhlu vl}h/ wkhlu vxshulru lqirupdwlrq rewdlqhg wkurxjk wkhlu delolw| wr lqwhuphgldwhd eljjhu vkduh ri ghpdqg dw wkh dxfwlrq dqg sduwlfxodu lqvwlwxwlrqdo duudqjhphqwv zlwkwkh Fhqwudo Edqn frqihu wkhp d pruh srzhuixo srvlwlrq dw wkh dxfwlrq1 Wkh uhvxowv/ uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 6/ Sdqho E/ frqup rxu k|srwkhvlv= wkh vshfldolvwvuhgxfh wkhlu lqirupdwlrq0gulyhq wudghv1 Wkh ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv/ lqvwhdg/ lqfuhdvhhqgrjhqrxv wudglqj1 Iru h{dpsoh/ lq wkh fdvh wkh frhflhqw rq wkh lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri 54
  • 29. lqfrplqj ghdohu lv phdvxuhg e| xvlqj wkh s0ydoxh +L‚3dD ,/ jrhv iurp 518 wr 71:8/ zlwk dvwurqj lqfuhdvh lq vljqlfdqfh +wkh w0vwdwlvwlfv mxpsv iurp 5166 wr 617;,1 Lw lv lqwhuhvwlqj wr qrwh wkdw wkh lqfuhdvh lq hqgrjhqrxv wudgh lv prvwo| pdgh ri wudglqjsodfhg zlwk ohvv lqiruphg ghdohuv1 Lqghhg/ Wdeoh 7 vkrzv wkdw wkh gd|v ehiruh wkh dxfwlrqwkh ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv uhgluhfw wkhlu wudgh wrzdugv ohvv lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv1 Wklvlqglfdwhv wkdw wkh| fkrrvh wr wudgh hqgrjhqrxvo| lq rughu wr klgh dqg qrw wr h{shulphqw1Zh zloo h{sdqg xsrq wklv srlqw ehorz1. O
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  • 31. lqirupdwlyhqhvv1 Li wkhuh duh udwlrqdo vwudwhjlhv zklfk fdq eh wudfhg iurp wkh gdwd/ wkh v iru wkh glhuhqw jurxsv vkrxog eh glhuhqw1 Wkh uhvxowv/ uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 7/ Sdqhov D dqg E/ vkrz wkdw wkhuh lv d vljqlfdqwfkdqjh lq wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq wkh lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh lqfrplqj wudgh dqg wkdw riwkh rxwjrlqj rqh1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ d yhu| lqirupdwlyh vljqdo lqgxfhv wkh pdunhw pdnhu zkruhfhlyhv lw wr dssurdfk hlwkhu d yhu| lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhu ru d frpsohwho| xqlqiruphgrqh1 Lqghhg/ wkh ydoxh ri lv vwurqjhu iru wkh uvw dqg wklug fodvv1 Wklv srodul}hg uhdfwlrq dw wkh djjuhjdwh ohyho vxjjhvwv wkh h{lvwhqfh ri wzr pdlq vwudwh0jlhv1 Pdunhw pdnhuv fdq hlwkhu klgh wkhlu lqirupdwlrq e| wudglqj zlwk ohvv lqiruphg pdunhwpdnhuv/ ru dvvhvv wkh txdolw| ri wkhlu lqirupdwlrq e| dssurdfklqj pruh lqiruphg pdunhwpdnhuv1 Wkh iruphu zrxog hqwdlo d qhjdwlyh / zkloh wkh odwwhu d srvlwlyh rqh1 Dw djjuhjdwhohyho wklv zrxog vkrz xs dv d el0prgdo glvwulexwlrq zlwk wkh ydoxhv ri v sduwlfxoduo| kljkiru wkh yhu| lqiruphg dqg yhu| xqlqiruphg frxqwhusduwv1 Lw lv dovr zruwk qrwlqj krz wkhvh uhvxowv fkdqjh lq wkh sur{lplw| ri wkh dxfwlrq1 Wkhydoxh ri gursv iru wkh fodvv ri yhu| lqiruphg frxqwhusduwv dqg lqfuhdvhv iru wkh fodvv riwkh ohdvw lqiruphg rqhv1 Wklv lv lq olqh zlwk wkh suhylrxv qglqjv dqg vxjjhvwv wkdw dv wkhdxfwlrq gudzv qhduhu/ klglqj ehkdylru suhydlov ryhu h{shulphqwdwlrq1 Lq djjuhjdwh/ pdunhwpdnhuv v|vwhpdwlfdoo| uhdfw wr wkh lqirupdwlrq frqwdlqhg lq wkh rughuv wkh| uhfhlyh e|dwwhpswlqj wr klgh lw1 Krzhyhu/ wklv vshflfdwlrq grhv qrw dqvzhu wkh txhvwlrq ri zkhwkhuwkh vdph pdunhw pdnhu vlpxowdqhrxvo| sod|v erwk vwudwhjlhv/ klglqj dqg h{shulphqwlqj1Lqghhg/ rqo| wkh dqdo|vlv dw wkh ghdohu*v ohyho fdq dgguhvv wklv lvvxh1.2 W_i?|€U@|L? Lu *|ih?@|i Ah@_?} 5|h@|i}itRqfh zh kdyh dvfhuwdlqhg wkh h{lvwhqfh ri d uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq pdunhw pdnhuv* ehkdylrudqg lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri lqfrplqj wudgh/ zh fdq surfhhg wr lghqwli| wkh glhuhqw vwudwhjlhv1Wr gr wklv/ zh xvh dq hfrqrphwulf dssurdfk wkdw h{solflwo| prghov pdunhw pdnhuv* ghflvlrqsurfhvv1 Wkh vwduwlqj srlqw lv wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri Htxdwlrq +48,/ wkdw lv wkh uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrq riwkh pdunhw pdnhu1 Wkh idfw wkdw wkh fkrlfh ri wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv d qrq0wulyldo ixqfwlrqri wkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv* fkrlfhv dqg fkdudfwhulvwlfv pdnhv wkh sureohp yhu| lqyroyhg1Jlyhq wkdw hdfk vlqjoh pdunhw pdnhu ghflghv klv uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrq rq wkh edvlv ri rwkhu 56
  • 32. pdunhw pdnhuv* shufhswlrq ri klv ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv/ zh vkrxog frqwuro iru wkhuhdfwlrq ri doo wkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv/ hvwlpdwlqj wkh furvv hodvwlflwlhv ri wkh uhdfwlrqixqfwlrqv iru doo wkh sdluv ri pdunhw pdnhuv lq wkh pdunhw1 Fohduo|/ wklv lv frpsxwdwlrqdoo|fxpehuvrph dqg/ hyhq zlwk wkh ulfkqhvv ri d kljk iuhtxhqf| gdwdvhw/ xqihdvleoh1 Zh wkhuhiruh xvh dq dssurdfk lq zklfk zh uvw ghqh wkh srvvleoh dowhuqdwlyh fkrlfhve| jurxslqj wkh pdunhw pdnhuv lq fodvvhv dffruglqj wr krprjhqrxv fkdudfwhulvwlfv1 Wkhq/zh vroyh wkh hqgrjhqhlw| sureohp e| surmhfwlqj wkh fkrlfh vsdfh +wkdw kdv d glphqvlrqhtxdo wr wkh qxpehu ri h{lvwlqj jurxsv, rqwr wkh vsdfh ri wkh fkrlfh fkdudfwhulvwlfv +wkdwkdv wkh glphqvlrq htxdo wr wkh pxfk vpdoohu vhw ri fkdudfwhulvwlfv lq hdfk jurxs, +Ehuu|/Ohylqvrkq dqg Sdnhv 48,1 Wkh fkrlfh vsdfh lv ghqhg rq wkh edvlv ri wkh wuhh ri dowhuqdwlyhv +Iljxuh 4,1 Wkhpdunhw pdnhu fdq hlwkhu rshudwh rqo| e| fkdqjlqj wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv dqg2ru zlwkgudziurp wkh pdunhw/ ru gluhfwo| sodfh rughuv zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv1 Li wkh pdunhw pdnhughflghv wr sodfh rughuv gluhfwo| zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv/ kh kdv dovr wr fkrrvh zklfkrwkhu pdunhw pdnhu kh zdqwv wr dssurdfk1 Hdfk pdunhw pdnhu fdq fkrrvh wr sodfh wkh rughu zlwk yh glhuhqw w|shv ri pdunhwpdnhuv= _vpduw pdunhw0wlphuv%/ _pdunhw wlphuv%/ _dyhudjhv%/ _txdvl0frqwuduldqv% dqg_frqwuduldqv%1 Wkh vpduw pdunhw wlphuv duh wkh ghdohuv zkrp wkh pdunhw pdnhu lvfrqghqw +zlwk frqghqfh lq h{fhvv ri 3(, duh deoh wr vxffhvvixoo| wlph wkh pdunhw/ l1h1/wkh| ex| ehiruh dq lqfuhdvh lq sulfhv dqg vhoo ehiruh d uhgxfwlrq lq sulfhv1 Wkh pdunhwwlphuv duh wkh rqhv wkh pdunhw pdnhu eholhyhv wr eh deoh wr vxffhvvixoo| wlph wkh pdunhwzlwk frqghqfh ehwzhhq 83 dqg 3(1 Wkh dyhudjhv duh wkh rqhv zkrp wkh pdunhw pdnhukdv orz nqrzohgjh derxw +frqghqfh ohyho orzhu wkdq 83(,1 Wkh frqwuduldqv duh wkhpdunhw pdnhuv zkrp wkh pdunhw pdnhuv lv yhu| frqghqw +3( frqghqfh ohyho, iroorzfrqwuduldq vwudwhjlhv +vhoo ehiruh lqfuhdvh lq sulfhv dqg ex| ehiruh d uhgxfwlrq lq sulfhv,1Ilqdoo| wkh txdvl0frqwuduldqv duh wkh pdunhw pdnhuv zkrp wkh pdunhw pdnhu eholhyhv wr  W| t Lh| ?L|?} | @| i @i tiT@h@|i_ | i 4@h!i| 4@!iht ?|L D }hL Tt L? | i M@tt Lu | i E 3 R@* i Lu | i ULiUi?| c *i i @i ti_ | i ThL_ U| Lu E 3 R @?_ |L _i?|u) | i 4@h!i| 4@!iht? |ih4t Lu _i}hii Lu ?uLh4@|i?itt A i hi@tL? uLh | t t | @| | i _i}hii Lu ?uLh4@|i?itt t TL|i?|@**) ?ML ?_i_c *i | i @* i Lu  3 R t ML ?_i_ M)  @?_ fc @**L?} t |L tiT@h@|i | i 4@h!i| 4@!iht?|L D }hL Tt A i _i}hii Lu ?uLh4@|i?itt |@!it ?|L @UUL ?| ?L| L?*) | i UL?€_i?Ui ? | i _i}hii Lu?uLh4@|i?itt E 3 Rc M | @*tL | i 4T@U| L? | i 4@h!i| E Lu t U @ 4@h!i| 4@!ih A ihiuLhic |U@T| hit | i R*!i*) 4T@U| L? ThUit | @| |h@_?} | @ T@h|U *@h 4@h!i| 4@!ih ?L*it 57
  • 33. iroorz frqwuduldq vwudwhjlhv zlwk d frqghqfh ehwzhhq 83( dqg 3(1 Wkh frqwuduldqv dqgwkh txdvl0frqwuduldqv fdq eh frqvlghuhg dv lqwhuphgldulhv zkr kdyh rxwvlgh frqvwudlqwvlqgxflqj wkhp wr wlph wkh pdunhw lq wkh zurqj gluhfwlrq1 Rqh uhdvrq frxog eh wkdw wkh|lqwhuphgldwh oltxlglw| ghpdqg ru wkdw wkh| kdyh errnv zlwk dffxpxodwhg olplw0rughuv12 Frqwuduldq dqg pdunhw wlphuv fdq eh frqvlghuhg dv lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv zkr kdyhglhuhqw lqirupdwlrq1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw wkh ghflvlrq ri d pdunhw pdnhu klw e| d pdunhwwlphu wr dssurdfk d frqwuduldq dv zhoo dv wkh ghflvlrq ri d pdunhw pdnhu klw e| d frqwuduldqwr klw d pdunhw wlphu fdq eh lqwhusuhwhg dv klglqj1 Wkh uhdvrq ehlqj wkdw wkh klw pdunhwpdnhu lv dssurdfklqj d pdunhw pdnhu zkr kdv lqirupdwlrq wkdw lv glhuhqw iurp wkdw khoge| wkh ghdohu zkr kdv sodfhg wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh1 Wkhuhiruh/ kh h{shfwv klp qrw wr ehdeoh wr pdnh xvh ri wkh dgglwlrqdo lqirupdwlrq kh lv surylglqj zlwk klv wudgh1 Hyhu| vlqjoh wudqvdfwlrq lv d fkrlfh/ dqg wkh iuhtxhqf| ri wkh fkrlfh lv jlyhq e| wkhqxpehu ri wudqvdfwlrqv gxulqj wkh vshflhg wlph lqwhuydo1 Hdfk dowhuqdwlyh lv vlpxowdqh0rxvo| frpshwlqj zlwk wkh rwkhu dowhuqdwlyhv dw wkh vdph ohyho ri wkh wuhh +h1j1/ dssurdfklqjd pdunhw pdnhu zkr lv zhoo lqiruphg yv1 dssurdfklqj d pdunhw pdnhu zkr lv qrw lqiruphg,dv zhoo dv zlwk doo wkh rwkhu dowhuqdwlyhv +l1h1/ qrw sodflqj dq| rughu gluhfwo| zlwk rwkhupdunhw pdnhuv/ exw rqo| fkdqjlqj wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv,1 Wkh pdunhw pdnhu vhohfwv wkh dowhuqdwlyh wkdw jxdudqwhhv klp d sd|r kljkhu wkdqwkdw surgxfhg e| wkh rwkhu dowhuqdwlyhv1 Lw fdq eh vkrzq +Ehuu| 47/ Ehuu| hw do1 48,wkdw wkh uhgxfhg irup fdq eh h{suhvvhg dv= oq+v™| , oq+v f™| , @ f . # oq+v™|ƒec•t , . F„ HY™| . j 2 . . ™| = 8™| +54,+vhh Dsshqgl{ E iru d ghwdlohg ghulydwlrq,1 Wklv vshflfdwlrq uhodwhv wkh fkrlfh ri wkhm0wk pdunhw pdnhu wr wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh l0wk pdunhw pdnhu kh fkrrvhvwr ghdo zlwk +HY™| , dqg wr vrph fkdudfwhulvwlfv revhuydeoh e| wkh pdunhw pdnhu/ exw qrwshufhlyhg e| wkh hfrqrphwulfldq + ,1 Htxdwlrq +54, lv hvwlpdwhg erqg e| erqg/ exw/ iruvlpsolflw|/ zh gurs wkh vxevfulsw %n%1 v™| l @ 4 === 8 lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu zrxog vhohfw wkh l0 2 tt 4i | @| | i _i@*ih @t @ ti| Lu Lh_iht |L ti** i? | i 4@h!i| hi@U it @ Uih|@? *ii* Oi t L *_i iU |i | i Lh_ihtc ii? u i Mi*iit | @| | i 4@h!i| t @tt 4i_ |L }L T A t L *_ }i | i @TTi@h@?Ui| @| | i _i@*ih t |4?} | i 4@h!i| ? | i hL?} _hiU|L? 58
  • 34. wk hqgrjhqrxv dowhuqdwlyh1 Lw lv ghqhg dv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh rughuv wkdw wkh m0wkpdunhw pdnhu sodfhv zlwk wkh pdunhw pdnhuv ehorqjlqj wr wkh l0wk jurxs lq wkh 43 plqxwhviroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh/ dqg wkh wrwdo dprxqw ri wudghv +erwk hqgrjhqrxv dqgh{rjhqrxv, wkdw kh ghdov zlwk lq wkh vdph lqwhuydo1 v f™| lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu zrxog vhohfw wr jr h{rjhqrxv= Lw lvghqhg dv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh rughuv wkdw wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu uhfhlyhv iurp rwkhupdunhw pdnhuv lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj rughu/ dqg wkh wrwdo qxpehuri wudghv +erwk hqgrjhqrxv dqg h{rjhqrxv, wkdw kh ghdov zlwk gxulqj wkh vdph lqwhuydo1 SDIlqdoo|/ v™|ƒec•t @ v™| @  v™| lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu zrxogvhohfw wkh l0wk hqgrjhqrxv dowhuqdwlyh/ frqglwlrqdo rq kdylqj ghflghg wr jr hqgrjhqrxv1Wkdw lv/ lw lv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh rughuv wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu sodfhv zlwk rwkhu pdunhwpdnhuv ehorqjlqj wr wkh l0wk fkrlfh jurxs lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqjrughu/ dqg wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri rughuv wkdw/ gxulqj wkh vdph lqwhuydo/ wkh m0wk pdunhwpdnhu sodfhv hqgrjhqrxvo|1 Wkh vwrfkdvwlf whup frqwurov iru wkh glvwulexwlrq ri pdunhw pdnhuv* suhihuhqfhvdqg sod|v wkh uroh ri _phdq ri wkh ydoxdwlrqv wkdw hdfk pdunhw pdnhu kdv ri wkh rwkhupdunhw pdnhuv1% Wklv lqfoxghv wklqjv vxfk dv _foxe uhodwlrqvkls% dprqj sduwlfxodu jurxsv/suhihuhqwldo wuhdwphqwv/ dqg vr rq1 Wkh frhflhqw # uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghjuhh ri khwhurjhqhlw| dfurvv dowhuqdwlyh fkrlfhvzlwklq wkh jurxs1 Lw udqjhv iurp }hur wr rqh1 Zkhq lw lv htxdo wr }hur/ wkh fkrlfhvzlwklq wkh vshflf jurxs duh shufhlyhg dv glhuhqw iurp rqh dqrwkhu1 Zkhq lw lv htxdo wrrqh/ wkh fkrlfhv duh shufhlyhg dv forvh vxevwlwxwhv iru rqh dqrwkhu +vhh Dsshqgl{ E iru dghwdlohg ghulydwlrq,1 HY™| ghqhv wkh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh frxqwhusduwv wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv wudglqj zlwk1Lq sduwlfxodu/ lw fdswxuhv wkh glhuhqfh lq wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ehwzhhq wkh pdunhwpdnhu sodflqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj rughu dqg wkh pdunhw pdnhu zkrp wkh %klw% pdunhw pdnhudssurdfkhv1 Wr ghqh wklv/ zh uvw fdofxodwh wkh surgxfw ri wkh ydoxh ri dqg +4 s,/zkhuh s lv wkh suredelolw| ydoxh ri wkh frhflhqw dv ghqhg lq Htxdwlrq +4;,1 Wkhqzh fdofxodwh wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh dyhudjh ri wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh ri wkh ghjuhh rilqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh pdunhw pdnhuv ri hdfk jurxs/ dqg wkh h{shfwhg lqirupdwlyhqhvv riwkh ghdohu zkr lv sodflqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj rughu1 59
  • 35. Wkh prgho +54, lv hvwlpdwhg iru hdfk pdunhw pdnhu vhsdudwho| rq wkh edvlv ri wudqvdf0wlrq wlph1 Wkhq/ wkh pdunhw pdnhuv duh fodvvlhg lqwr wkuhh jurxsv edvhg rq wkh qdwxuhri wkhlu uhvsrqvh wr lqiruphg wudgh +frhflhqw F„ ,1 D furvv0ydolgdwlrq whfkqltxh lv xvhgwr lghqwli| wkh fodvvhv ri pdunhw pdnhuv/ wr jurxs wkhp dqg wr whvw wkh vwdelolw| ri vxfk djurxslqj1 
  • 36. Ixuwkhupruh/ lq rughu wr dvvhvv wkh vwdelolw| ri wkh uhvxowv wr d fkdqjh lq wkhpdunhw yrodwlolw|/ zh hvwlpdwh Htxdwlrq +54, lq wzr glhuhqw yrodwlolw| uhjlphv +kljk dqgorz yrodwlolw|,1 %Kljk yrodwlolw|% shulrgv duh wkh gd|v zkhq wkh gdlo| yrodwlolw| h{fhhgvwkh yrodwlolw| ryhu wkh suhylrxv 43 wudglqj gd|v1 Wkh uhvxowv/ uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 8/ SdqhoF/ djuhh zlwk wkh rwkhu rqhv +Wdeoh 8/ sdqhov D dqg E,1 Wkh uhvxowv vwurqjo| vxssruw rxu k|srwkhvhv1 Lq Wdeoh 8/ Sdqho D/ zh uhsruw wkh uhvxowvri wkh vshflfdwlrq edvhg rq wudqvdfwlrq wlph/ hvwlpdwhg e| jurxslqj wkh pdunhw pdnhuvdffruglqj wr wkh lqvwlwxwlrqdo fodvvlfdwlrq dv zhoo dv wr wkh wudglqj0edvhg rqh1 Wkhuh duhglhuhqw sdwwhuqv ri ehkdylru dprqj wkh fodvvhv ri pdunhw pdnhuv1 Lq jhqhudo/ vqhdnlhvwu| wr klgh wkhlu lqirupdwlrq1 Lq rughu wr gr wklv/ wkh| gluhfw wkhlu wudgh wrzdugv pdunhwpdnhuv ohvv lqiruphg wkdq wkh rqhv zkr kdyh klw wkhp1 Wkhuhiruh/ li wkh| duh klw e|pdunhw wlphuv/ wkh| sodfh rughuv zlwk ohvv vpduw pdunhw wlphuv/ dyhudjhv dqg frqwuduldqv1Hpslulfdoo|/ wklv fruuhvsrqgv wr srvlwlyh dqg vwurqjo| vljqlfdqw F„ @ 3=43= Dovr/ liwkh| duh klw e| frqwuduldqv wkh| sodfh rughuv zlwk ohvv frqwuduldqv/ dyhudjhv dqg pdunhwwlphuv +hvwlpdwh ri F„ @ 45;=77 lv vwurqjo| vljqlfdqw/ w0vwdwlvwlfv lv 0;1:9,1 Wkdw lv/wkh| dozd|v %jr iru wkh fhqwuh%/ wrzdugv wkh ohvv lqiruphg +fodvvhv LL/ LLL dqg LY,1 Wkh vnhswlfv ehkdyh lq wkh rssrvlwh idvklrq/ sodflqj rughuv zlwk pdunhw pdnhuv pruhlqiruphg wkdq wkh rqhv wkh| uhfhlyh rughuv iurp1 Wkdw lv/ li wkh| duh klw e| pdunhw wlphuv/wkh| dssurdfk vpduwhu pdunhw wlphuv1 Hvwlpdwhv lq Wdeoh 8/ Sdqho D/ vkrz wkdw lq wkdwfdvh F„ @ 9=49 zlwk w0vwdwlvwlfv 071951 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ li vnhswlfv duh klw e| frqwuduldqv/wkh| dssurdfk hyhq %pruh frqwudu|% frqwuduldqv + F„ @ ;:=35,1 Xqolnh wkh vqhdnlhv/ wkh|dozd|v jr iru wkh _zlqjv%/ wrzdug wkh h{wuhph fodvvhv +L dqg Y,1 
  • 37. W? T@h|U *@hc i tT*| | i t@4T*i ?|L L__ @?_ ii? _@)t A i? i it|4@|i ,^ @|L? E2 ? | i L___@)tc i ti | i @* it Lu | i it|4@|i_ ULiUi?|t q F„ |L _i?|u) | i U*@ttit | i 4@h!i| 4@!iht Mi*L?}|L @?_ | i? }hL T | i 4@h!i| 4@!iht @UULh_?} |L t U @ U*@tt€U@|L? A i?c i ti | i t@4T*i TihL_M@ti_ L? ii? _@)t |L it|4@|i | i @* i Lu | i @}}hi}@|i_ ULiUi?|t W? A@M*i Dc @?i*t c @?_ ihiTLh| | i hit *|t it|4@|i_ L? L*i TihL_ *tLc @t @ ti?t||) @?@*)tt i h ? | i t@4i i Tih4i?| t?} | i ii? _@)t |L _i?|u) | i _i@*iht A i hit *|t @}hii | | i L?it hiTLh|i_ 5:
  • 38. Wkh vohhslhv ehkdyh ohvv vwudwhjlfdoo|1 Wkh| dfw rqo| zkhq wkh| duh vxuh derxw wkhlqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wkh wudgh wkh| uhfhlyh/ dqg gr qrw h{shulphqw1 Wkhuhiruh/ wkh|gr qrw jr hqgrjhqrxv dw doo zkhq wkh| duh klw e| frqwuduldqv ru dyhudjhv/ dowkrxjk wkh|klgh zkhq klw e| pdunhw wlphuv1 Lq Wdeoh 9 zh uhsruw vrph ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv derxw wkh wkuhh w|shv ri ghdohuv1 Lwdsshduv wkdw hyhq li vnhswlfv dqg vqhdnlhv uhsuhvhqw d plqrulw| ri wkh pdunhw pdnhuv+uhvshfwlyho| ( dqg 4;( ri doo wkh pdunhw pdnhuv,/ wkh| vwloo duh d vljqlfdqw iudfwlrq riwkh ryhudoo lqiruphg hqgrjhqrxv wudglqj +uhvshfwlyho| 67( dqg 57(,1 Dovr/ li zh udqn doowkh pdunhw pdnhuv rq wkh edvlv ri wkhlu dyhudjh gdlo| wudglqj yroxph/ irxu rxw ri wkh uvwyh pdunhw pdnhuv duh dozd|v hlwkhu vqhdnlhv ru vnhswlfv1 Li zh slhufh wkh yhlo dqg dwwhpsw wr frqvlghu wkh frusrudwh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh pdunhwpdnhuv/ zh qg wkdw wkh vqhdnlhv duh prvwo| iruhljq edqnv dqg vrph kljko| vshfldol}hglqyhvwphqw frpsdqlhv1 Wkh idfw wkdw iruhljq edqnv lqwhuphgldwh wkh lqyhvwphqw lq wkhLwdoldq pdunhw ri wkh odujh lqwhuqdwlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqdo lqyhvwruv/ zrxog vxjjhvw wkdw wkh|kdyh d ehwwhu lqirupdwlrq vhw edvhg rq wkh nqrzohgjh ri wkh rzv1 Wklv zrxog vxjjhvwkljkhu lqirupdwlrqdo dgydqwdjh dqg vwurqjhu lqfhqwlyh wr klgh1 Wkh vnhswlfv/ lqvwhdg/duh phglxp0vl}hg kljko| hflhqw edqnv1 Wkh uhodwlyho| vpdoo vl}h zrxog mxvwli| kljk ulvndyhuvlrq ru/ lq dq| fdvh/ kljkhu fdxwlrxvqhvv1e Lw lv lqwhuhvwlqj wr qrwh wkdw zkhq pdunhw pdnhuv duh fodvvlhg dffruglqj wr wkh lqvwl0wxwlrqdo fodvvlfdwlrq/ erwk vshfldolvwv dqg ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv jhqhudoo| ehkdyh olnhvqhdnlhv +Wdeoh 8/ Sdqho E,1 Wklv uhhfwv d jhqhudo whqghqf| wr wu| wr klgh lqirupdwlrq1 Wkh dqdo|vlv ri wkh ghjuhh ri khwhurjhqhlw| dfurvv dowhuqdwlyh fkrlfhv wkdw frphv rxw riwkhvh uhvxowv vkrzv wkdw/ lq jhqhudo/ wkh yh dowhuqdwlyh fkrlfhv duh shufhlyhg wr eh txlwhglhuhqw1 Wkh ghjuhh ri khwhurjhqhlw| lv udwkhu kljk/ zlwk # forvh wr wkh plggoh ri wkhudqjh +durxqg 318,1 Lw lv hyhq kljkhu iru vnhswlfv zkr kdyh wr dssurdfk pruh lqiruphgwudghuv udwkhu wkdq ohvv lqiruphg rqhv1H OeG @h!i| @!iht 5|h@|i}it @?_ @h!i| VL*@|*|)Lq rughu wr whvw zkhwkhu glhuhqw vwudwhjlhv lpso| glhuhqw uhdfwlrqv wr pdunhw yrodwlolw|/zh whvw wkh uhvwulfwlrqv lpsrvhg e| Htxdwlrq +4:,1 E| xvlqj wkh vshflfdwlrq 54,/ wkh e N?uLh| ?@|i*) ?L u h| ih ?it|}@|L? ? }hi@|ih _i|@* t @**Li_ M) UL?€_i?|@*) hi^ hi4i?|t 5;
  • 39. whvwdeoh lpsolfdwlrqv duh= r8e‚|ƒr ? 3 dqg rced8er A 3= j jWkdw lv/ wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq pdunhw yrodwlolw| dqg lqiruphg hqgrjhqrxv wudgh lv qhj0dwlyh iru wkh vnhswlfv dqg srvlwlyh iru wkh vqhdnlhv1 Wkh uhvxowv/ uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 8/ Sdqhov D dqg E/ vkrz wkdw wklv lv lqghhg wkh fdvh dqgwkdw dq lqfuhdvh lq pdunhw yrodwlolw| lqgxfhv wkh vnhswlfv wr uhgxfh wkhlu wudglqj zlwk pruhlqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv dqg wkh vqhdnlhv wr lqfuhdvh wkhlu wudglqj zlwk pruh lqiruphgpdunhw pdnhuv1 Doo frhflhqwv iru vqhdnlhv +vnhswlfv, duh srvlwlyh +qhjdwlyh, zlwk irxurxw ri yh vljqlfdqw dw d 8( ohyho1 Dq dowhuqdwlyh vshflfdwlrq lv uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 8/ Sdqho F zkhuh zh vhsdudwh wkhvdpsoh lq shulrgv ri kljk dqg orz yrodwlolw|1 Wkh whvwdeoh lpsolfdwlrqv ri K7 fdq qrz ehzulwwhq dv= m Å}Å m ? m Dt% m iru vnhswlfv dqg m Å}Å m A m Dt% m iru vqhdnlhv/ F„ F„ F„ F„zkhuh wkh lqgh{hv kljk dqg orz uhihu wr wkh wzr vwdwhv ri kljk dqg orz yrodwlolw|1 Wkhuhvxowv vkrz wkdw lq jhqhudo wkrvh frqglwlrqv duh vdwlvhg iru uhohydqw jurxsv +L/ LL/ LY dqgY,1b L?U* tL?tZh kdyh dqdo|}hg pdunhw pdnhuv* ghflvlrq wr vwudwhjlfdoo| h{shulphqw1 Zh prghoohg vxfkd ghflvlrq dv wkh uhvxow ri d frpsoh{ vwudwhj| lqyroylqj wkh gluhfw sodfhphqw ri rughuv zlwkrwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv lq wkh vhfrqgdu| pdunhw1 E| xvlqj d xqltxh gdwdvhw wkdw wudfhv pdunhw pdnhuv* ehkdylru rq wkh Lwdoldq Wuhdvxu|erqg pdunhw/ zh kdyh vkrzq wkdw pdunhw pdnhuv dfwlyho| ohduq iurp wkh pdunhw pdnhuvwkh| duh wudglqj zlwk1 Wkh| xvh wklv nqrzohgjh wr uhdfw vwudwhjlfdoo| wr wkh lqirupdwlrqfrqwhqw ri wkh rughuv wkh| uhfhlyh/ sod|lqj vwudwhjlhv wkdw ghshqg rq wkh txdolw| ri wklvlqirupdwlrq1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh kdyh lghqwlhg wzr pdlq w|shv ri vwudwhjlf uhdfwlrq wr wkhlqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wudgh= _klglqj% dqg _h{shulphqwlqj% dqg vkrzq xqghu zklfkfrqglwlrqv h{shulphqwdwlrq lv wkh suhihuuhg rqh1 5
  • 40. Wkhvh uhvxowv rshq xs d qhz dqg lqwhuhvwlqj dyhqxh ri uhvhdufk1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ li pdunhwpdnhuv uhdfw glhuhqwo| wr wkh lqirupdwlrq wkh| uhfhlyh/ wkhlu lpsdfw rq pdunhw sulfhvdovr glhuv1 Iurp wklv shuvshfwlyh/ lw pd| eh srvvleoh wr xvh pdunhw pdnhuv* uhdfwlrqv wrlqirupdwlrq wr h{sodlq rwkhuzlvh sx}}olqj hylghqfh rq dvvhw sulfhv/ yroxph dqg yrodwlolw|1Pdunhw hflhqf| dqg sulfh uhdfwlrq wr wudgh fdq eh ehwwhu dqdo|}hg dqg h{sodlqhg lq wkhfrqwh{w ri pdunhw pdnhuv* vwudwhjlf lqwhudfwlrq1 63
  • 41. Pdunhw Pdnhu*v SureohpSurri ri Sursrvlwlrq 4 Pdunhw pdnhuv revhuyh d vljqdo +, dqg wu| wr lqihu wkh ydoxh ri 1 Ohw xv dvvxph wkdw+ , lv d wzr0glphqvlrqdo sduwldoo| revhuydeoh udqgrp surfhvv zkhuh lv wkh revhuydeohfrpsrqhqw/ lv wkh xqrevhuydeoh frpsrqhqw dqg H lv wkh vhw ri srvvleoh ydoxhv wkdwwkh xqrevhuydeoh frpsrqhqw +, fdq wdnh1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ dvvxph wkdw wkh xqrevhuydeohfrpsrqhqw iroorzv= g | @ D| + | ,gw . E| +,gZ|zkhuh Z| lv d Zlhqhu surfhvv1 Iurp Olswvhu dqg Vklu|dhy +4::/ sdjh 666, zh nqrz wkdwwkh srvwhulru suredelolw| ri wkh vwdwh 5 H lv= ] | ] | DÄ + , DÄ +, q +w, @ sq +w, . ? q +x,gx . q +x, gZ Ä +55, f f EÄ +, S Szkhuh= ? q +x, @ M, q +x, +x,/ DÄ +, @ M, DÄ + , +x, dqg Z @ +Z | @| , U|lv d Zlhqhu surfhvv zlwk= Z | @ f •IÄ 3ÈIÄEI = Khuh @| lv wkh lqirupdwlrq vhw dydlodeoh Ä Edw wlph w= Lq rxu fdvh/ wkh xqrevhuydeoh frpsrqhqw +, fdq wdnh ydoxhv d dqg e +wkdw lvH @ ^w u `,1 Wkh revhuydeoh frpsrqhqw lv 1 Dsso|lqj Htxdwlrq +55,/ zh kdyh= g bw @ +4 5 bw ,gw . bw +4 bw ,+w u , gv bw w . +4 bw ,u gw 2 I v Li zh ghqh b @ +4 5 bw ,/ g @ •r bw w . +4 bw ,u gw dqg @ w r  E3bw Ebw 3bu + bw j2 , zh kdyh= I g bw @ b gw . g= w Hfrqrphwulf VshflfdwlrqLq wklv Dsshqgl{/ zh rxwolqh wkh ghulydwlrq ri d glvfuhwh fkrlfh prgho edvhg rq Ehuu|+47, dqg Ehuu| hw do1 +48,1 Ohw* v ghqh wkh sd|r ri wkh l0wk fkrlfh iru wkh m0wkpdunhw pdnhu dv= x @ { . . % +56,zkhuh wkh vxevfulsw m iru wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv rplwwhg iru vlpsolflw|1 Htxdwlrq +56,lpsolhv wkdw wkh sd|r ri hdfk lqglylgxdo pdunhw pdnhu lv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh fkdudfwhulvwlfvri wkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv kh ghdov zlwk +{ , dqg vrph fkdudfwhulvwlfv revhuydeoh e| wkhpdunhw pdnhu/ exw qrw shufhlyhg e| wkh hfrqrphwulfldq +,1 D qrlvh whup % lv jlyhq e|wkh glvwulexwlrq ri pdunhw pdnhuv* suhihuhqfhv +ulvn dyhuvlrq/ hwf1, durxqg d phdq ydoxh 64
  • 42. uhsuhvhqwhg e| = Wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu vhohfwv wkh dfwlrq wkdw jxdudqwhhv d sd|r kljkhuwkdq wkdw ri wkh rwkhu dowhuqdwlyhv/ wkdw lv x+{ % • , A x+{8 8 % • , iru hdfk n @ 4 === l 4 l . 4 === Nzkhuh • lv wkh vhw ri fkrlfhv1 Wkh suredelolw| ri fkrrvlqj wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh ryhu wkhrwkhuv fdq eh uhsuhvhqwhg e|= ] v ++{ , { , @ i+% { H ,g%8 +57, È Efzkhuh v lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh lv fkrvhq lq wkh pdunhw dqg lv wkhphdq sd|r dvvrfldwhg zlwk fkrlfh ri wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh1 Lw lv fdofxodwhg e| lqwhjudwlrqryhu wkh duhd DEf / wkdw lv dfurvv doo wkh srvvleoh fkrlfhv1 Zh dvvxph wkdw wkh pdunhw pdnhu kdv uvw wr ghflgh zkhwkhu wr jr h{rjhqrxv ruhqgrjhqrxv dqg/ lq wkh odwwhu fdvh/ zklfk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhu wr dssurdfk1 Wkh vhwri hqgrjhqrxv fkrlfhv lv n @ 4 === l === N 5 hqgr= Zh dovr dvvxph wkdw wkh suhihuhqfhvri wkh pdunhw pdnhuv % eh l1l1g1 zlwk _h{wuhph ydoxh% glvwulexwlrq ixqfwlrq1 Zh fdqwkhuhiruh uhsuhvhqw wkh suredelolw| ri hdfk fkrlfh dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ri lwvfkdudfwhulvwlfv + @ { . ,= Wkh suredelolw| ri vhohfwlqj wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh lv= f h{s+ , h{s+ 3Æ , v +, @ SÇ @ vƒec•t +,vec•t +, zkhuh vƒec•t +, @ S f +58, 8f h{s+ 8 , Mec•t h{s+ 3Æ ,uhsuhvhqwv wkh suredelolw| ri fkrrvlqj wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh rqfh wkh ghflvlrq ri jrlqj hq0grjhqrxv kdv ehhq wdnhq/ dqg S f + Mec•t h{s+ 3Æ ,,E3Æ vec•t +, @ S f +59, + Mec•t h{s+ 3Æ ,,E3Æ . h{s+ e7t ,uhsuhvhqwv wkh suredelolw| ri jrlqj hqgrjhqrxv uhodwlyh wr wkh suredelolw| ri jrlqj h{rjh0qrxv1 Wkh frhflhqw # uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghjuhh ri khwhurjhqhlw| dfurvv dowhuqdwlyh fkrlfhvzlwklq wkh jurxs1 Lw udqjhv iurp }hur +zkhq wkh fkrlfhv zlwklq wkh vshflf jurxs duhshufhlyhg dv glhuhqw, wr rqh +zkhq wkh fkrlfhv duh shufhlyhg dv forvh vxevwlwxwhv,1 Jlyhq wkh h{lvwhqfh ri d xqltxh pdsslqj iurp wkh phdq sd|r wr wkh suredelolw| rifkrrvlqj rqh dowhuqdwlyh +htxdwlrq 57,/ zh fdq lqyhuw wklv uhodwlrqvkls vr dv wr h{suhvv wkhsuredelolw| ri fkrrvlqj rq dowhuqdwlyh dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh phdq sd|r1 E| htxdol}lqj wkhsuredelolw| ghulyhg iurp htxdwlrq 57 wr wkh dfwxdo fkrlfhv gluhfwo| revhuyhg rq wkh pdunhw+v™| , zh fdq ghulyh wkh uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv ri wkh pdunhw pdnhuv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ iru wkh em0wk pdunhw pdnhu vhohfwlqj wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh= oq+v™| , oq+v f™| , @ # oq+v™|ƒec•t , . {™| . . ™| = +5:, Urexvwqhvv FkhfnvWklv Dsshqgl{ ghvfulehv wkh qxphurxv urexvwqhvv fkhfnv shuiruphg zkloh whvwlqj wkhk|srwkhvhv ri wkh sdshu1 Wkhvh uhvxowv duh dydlodeoh xsrq uhtxhvw iurp wkh dxwkruv1 65
  • 43.  K4= Lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wudghvLq dgglwlrq wr xvlqj wkh rfldo dqg wkh wudgh0edvhg fodvvlfdwlrq ri pdunhw pdnhuv/ zhdovr frqvlghu dq dowhuqdwlyh fulwhulrq/ vhsdudwlqj pdunhw pdnhuv dffruglqj wr wkhlu yroxphri wudglqj lq wkh vhfrqgdu| pdunhw1 Iru hdfk prqwk/ zh fdofxodwh wkh wudglqj yroxphri hdfk vlqjoh pdunhw pdnhu lq wkh pdunhw dqg wkhq zh jurxs wkh pdunhw pdnhuv lqwrtxduwlohv rq wkh edvlv ri wkhlu wrwdo yroxph1 Wkh vshfldolvwv dozd|v frlqflgh zlwk wkheljjhvw pdunhw pdnhuv/ idoolqj lqwr wkh uvw txduwloh/ zkloh wkh ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv idooprvwo| lqwr wkh vhfrqg/ dqg sduwo| lqwr wkh wklug txduwloh1 Ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv ehorqjsduwo| wr wkh wklug dqg prvwo| wr wkh irxuwk txduwloh1 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ zh dovr jurxs ghdohuvvhsdudwlqj wkhp dffruglqj wr yroxph ri wudgh rq wkh vhfrqgdu| pdunhw dqg doorfdwlqjwkhp wr txduwlohv zlwk htxdo qxpehu ri ghdohuv lq hdfk1 Wklv uhvxowv lq kdylqj pruh wkdqkdoi ri wkh wrwdo yroxph wudghg frqfhqwudwhg lq wkh uvw txduwloh1 Zh dovr h{shulphqw zlwk h{whqglqj wkh uhdfwlrq shulrg wr 63 plqxwhv1 Wkdw lv/ zhfrqvlghu doo wkh wudghv +hlwkhu h{rjhqrxv ru hqgrjhqrxv, hqdfwhg e| wkh pdunhw pdnhulq wkh qh{w 63 plqxwhv1 Wkh udwlrqdoh lq grlqj wklv lv wkdw wkh suredelolw| ri uhfhlylqjwzr frqvhfxwlyh rughuv zlwk wkh vdph vljq fdq eh gxh wr pdunhw pdnhuv* lqgxfhg wudgh+h{rjhqrxv wudglqj,/ dv zhoo dv wr pdunhw pdnhuv* lqdelolw| wr pryh wkh elg0dvn vsuhdg lqwlph wr dyrlg ehlqj _slfnhg r% e| rwkhu lqiruphg djhqwv +Irxfdxow/ Urhoo dqg Vdqgdv4, H{whqglqj wkh zlqgrz doorzv xv wr glvfulplqdwh djdlqvw vxfk k|srwkhvlv1 Lq wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv slfnhg r/ wkh vljq ri wkh uhodwlrqvkls vkrxogeh qhjdwlyh dqg vkrxog qrw uhpdlq vljqlfdqw zkhq wkh uhdfwlrq zlqgrz lv h{whqghg iurp8 wr 63 plqxwhv1 Wkh uhvxowv vkrz wkdw h{rjhqrxv wudglqj lv gxh wr wkh ghflvlrq wr fkdqjhwkh elg dqg dvn sulfhv srvwhg e| wkh pdunhw pdnhu dqg qrw wr slfn0r1 Ixuwkhupruh/wkh idfw wkdw wkh uhodwlrqvkls lv vwdeoh zkhq zh h{whqg wkh uhdfwlrq zlqgrz iurp 8 wr 63plqxwhv vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh uhdfwlrq lv yhu| xqolnho| wr eh gxh wr odfn ri wlph iru wkh pdunhwpdnhu wr fkdqjh klv elg dqg dvn12 K5= Suholplqdu| whvwlqj ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wudghvF1514 Frqwuroolqj iru wkh uroh sod|hg e| lqiruphg wudghZh lqyhvwljdwh wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq %lqiruphg lqfrplqj wudgh% dqg rxwjrlqj wudgh/e| frqvlghulqj d olqhdu vshflfdwlrq zkhuh hqgrjhqrxv dqg h{rjhqrxv wudgh duh gluhfwo|uhodwhg wr wkh lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wudgh= …cs TD 8™| @ . W8™| . %8™| = +5;, …csW8™| @ W8™| uhsuhvhqwv wkh _lqirupdwlyh rughu% lq wkh n0wk erqg uhfhlyhg e| wkh m0wkpdunhw pdnhu iurp wkh l0wk ghdohu dw wlph w1 Lw sur{lhv iru wkh lqirupdwlrq frqwdlqhg lqwkh wudghv dqg lv frqvwuxfwhg dv wkh surgxfw ri wkh wudgh wkdw wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu kdvuhfhlyhg lq wkh vshflhg wlph lqwhuydo e| wkh l0wk ghdohu dqg klv sulru rq klv wkh ghjuhhri lqirupdwlyhqhvv1 TD ec•t e7t 8™| @ T8™| T8™| uhsuhvhqwv wkh hqgrjhqrxv ru h{rjhqrxv wudghri wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh1 Wklv vshfl0fdwlrq vkrxog fdswxuh wkh sduw ri pdunhw pdnhuv* uhdfwlrq lq dgglwlrq wr wkdw rwkhuzlvhghwhuplqhg e| lqyhqwru| uhedodqflqj1 Vdpsolqj lv edvhg rq wudqvdfwlrq wlph1 Wkh dqdo|vlv lv fduulhg rxw glvdjjuhjdwhg dwwkh ohyho ri lqglylgxdo pdunhw pdnhuv1 Wkh sdluzlvh uhdfwlrqv iurp hdfk fodvv ri pdunhwpdnhu yhuvxv wkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv duh vhsdudwho| frqvlghuhg dqg duh fodvvlhg rq wkhedvlv ri wkh w|sh ri ghdohu zkr kdv sodfhg wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh1 Wr dvvhvv wkh urexvwqhvv 66
  • 44. ri wkh uhvxowv wr wkh fkdqjh ri wkh xqghuo|lqj glvwulexwlrq ri wkh prgho/ zh dovr whvw wkhpe| uxqqlqj d errwvwudsslqj surfhgxuh edvhg rq 43/333 uhvdpsolqjv1 Wkh uhvxowv/ frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh rqhv uhsruwhg lq wkh wh{w/ vkrz wkdw lq jhqhudo wkhlqirupdwlrq0gulyhq wudghv kdyh kljkhu srzhu wr h{sodlq hqgrjhqrxv wudgh wkdq wr h{sodlqh{rjhqrxv wudgh1 Lqghhg/ wkh devroxwh ydoxh ri wkh frhflhqwv +, dqg wkh kljk vljql0fdqfh ri wkhlu w0vwdwlvwlf vkrz wkdw ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv dqg vshfldolvwv dozd|v uhdfwwr lqiruphg wudgh e| jrlqj hqgrjhqrxv1 Wklv krogv erwk lq wkh fdvh ri wkh lqvwlwxwlrqdofodvvlfdwlrq dqg q wkh fdvh ri wkh wudglqj0edvhg rqh1F1515 Frqwuroolqj iru glhuhqw ghqlwlrqv ri yduldeohvZh h{shulphqw zlwk glhuhqw ohduqlqj zlqgrzv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh h{whqg wkh ohduqlqjshulrg wr wkh 58 suhylrxv gd|v1 Wkh uhvxowv djuhh txdolwdwlyho| zlwk wkrvh irxqg xvlqj wkh43 gd| ohduqlqj lqwhuydo= rqo| wkh ghjuhh ri vljqlfdqfh gursv/ jlyhq wkh dgglwlrqdo qrlvhlqgxfhg e| wkh ohqjwkhqlqj ri wkh vdpsoh shulrg1 Dovr/ zh uhghqh wkh ohduqlqj lqwhuydo durxqg dxfwlrq gd|v1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ dxfwlrqgd|0ohduqlqj lv ghqhg rq wkh suhylrxv 43 dxfwlrq gd|v/ zkloh qrq0dxfwlrq gd|0ohduqlqjlv ghqhg lq wkh suhylrxv 43 qrq0dxfwlrq gd|v1 Wkh lqwxlwlrq lv wkdw/ li lq dxfwlrq gd|vpdunhw pdnhuv ehkdyh glhuhqwo|/ zh h{shfw ohduqlqj qrw wr eh wkh vdph lq wkh wzr uhjlphvdqg wkh sulru rq wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri vshflf pdunhw pdnhuv wr glyhujh1 Wkhuhvxowv djuhh zlwk wkrvh edvhg rq d vlqjoh ohduqlqj pdwul{ iru wkh zkroh shulrg1F1516 Frqwuroolqj iru sulfh prphqwxpZh zdqw wr frqwuro iru wkh srvvlelolw| ri d vruw ri _prphqwxp% rq sulfhv1 Wkdw lv/ wkhsrvvlelolw| wkdw wudgh lv pruh ghwhuplqhg dv d uhdfwlrq wr fkdqjhv lq sulfhv wkdq dq dx0wrqrprxv ghflvlrq ri wkh pdunhw pdnhu1 Zh wkhuhiruh hvwlpdwh wkh iroorzlqj vshflfdwlrq= S8™| @ W8™| . S8™|3D . %8™| +5,zkhuh S8™|3D uhsuhvhqwv wkh fkdqjh ri sulfhv lq wkh sdvw 8 plqxwhv ri wkh n0wk erqg1Wkh uhvxowv ri wkh hvwlpdwh vhhp wr lqglfdwh wkdw wkh wudgh ri ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv lvvrphzkdw gulyhq e| prphqwxp frqvlghudwlrqv/ exw lq doo wkh rwkhu dvshfwv/ wkh uhvxowvdjuhh zlwk wkh rqhv uhsruwhg lq wkh wh{w1F1517 Frqwuroolqj iru lqyhqwru| uhedodqflqjLq rughu wr frqwuro iru lqyhqwru| hhfwv/ zh frqvlghu wzr dowhuqdwlyh vshflfdwlrqv1 Wkhuvw frqvlvwv ri whvwlqj h{solflwo| wkh lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri hdfk wudgh/ diwhu kdylqjholplqdwhg wkh uhvlgxdo hhfwv gxh wr lqyhqwru| uhedodqflqj1 Wr gr wklv/ zh uvw ghwhuplqhwkh frpsrqhqw ri wkh wudgh uhdfwlrq ri wkh pdunhw pdnhuv ruwkrjrqdo wr wrwdo wudghv+%8™| ,/ dqg wkhq zh vhh krz pxfk ri lw lv h{sodlqhg e| rxu phdvxuh ri lqiruphg wudgh1 Lqsduwlfxodu/ zh hvwlpdwh= TD8™| @ . W8™| . %8™|zkhuh wkh yduldeoh %8™| lv ruwkrjrqdo wr wrwdo wudghv1 Wklv lv wkhq uhjuhvvhg rq lqirupd0wlrqdo wudgh dffruglqj wr= …cs %8™| @ . W8™| . 8™| +63, 67
  • 45. …csLw lv zruwk qrwlqj wkdw wkh dgglwlrqdo h{sodqdwru| srzhu ri W8™| lv gxh wr wkh ohduqlqj e t|pdwul{ wkdw pxowlsolhv wkh sduw ri wrwdo wudghv +W8™| , wkdw duh lghqwlhg dv _lqiruphg%1D D vhfrqg vshflfdwlrq gluhfwo| vhsdudwhv wkh lqirupdwlrqdo hhfw iurp wkh sxuh lqyhq0wru| rqh= …cs TD 8™| @ . W8™| . Lqy8™| . %8™| +64,zkhuh Lqy8™| lv wkh l0wk pdunhw pdnhu*v lqyhqwru| srvlwlrq dw wlph w rq wkh n wk erqg1Lq sduwlfxodu/ iru hdfk pdunhw pdnhu/ zh frqvwuxfw lqyhqwru| +Lqy8™| , dv d wlph vhulhvedvhg rq pdunhw pdnhuv* sxufkdvhv dqg vdohv ryhu wlph1 Zh xvh wkh ghqlwlrq ri lqyhqwru|ri Kdqvfk hw do1 +4;,/ fdofxodwlqj wkh vwdqgdugl}hg lqyhqwru| Lqy8™| H…c8™| Lqy8™| @ …c8™|zkhuh iru hdfk erqg n/ H…c8™| dqg …c8™| duh/ uhvshfwlyho|/ wkh phdq dqg wkh vwdqgdugghyldwlrq ri lqyhqwru| ryhu wkh vdpsoh1 Li pdunhw pdnhuv uhdfw wr wkh lqirupdwlrq frq0wdlqhg lq wkh rughuv uhfhlyhg/ dqg li wkh lqiruphg wudgh kdv h{sodqdwru| srzhu dgglwlrqdowr wkdw ri wkh lqyhqwru|/ wkhuh vkrxog eh d srvlwlyh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq lqirupdwlrq dqgpdunhw pdnhuv* wudglqj uhdfwlrqv1 D srvlwlyh vljq ri lpsolhv wkdw pdunhw pdnhuv uhdfwwr lqiruphg wudgh/ zkloh d srvlwlyh lv d vljq ri lqyhqwru|0gulyhq ehkdylru1 Wkh uhvxowvdjuhh zlwk wkh rqhv uhsruwhg lq wkh wh{w1F1518 Frqwuroolqj iru luuhjxodu vsdflqj ri revhuydwlrqvWkh xvh ri wudqvdfwlrq wlph kdv wkh ehqhw ri fdswxulqj wkh ydu|lqj ghjuhhv ri vljqlfdqfhwkdw kljk dqg orz yroxph shulrgv kdyh1 Krzhyhu/ wkh gudzedfn ri wklv dssurdfk lv wkdwlw plvvhv wkh hhfw gxh wr wkh odsvh ri wlph zkhq qr wudqvdfwlrqv rffxu +Hdvoh| dqgR*Kdud 45/ Gldprqg dqg Yhuuhffkld 4;:,1 Wr dgguhvv wklv lvvxh/ zh uh0hvwlpdwh vrphvshflfdwlrqv xvlqj d JDUFK vwuxfwxuh zkhuh huuruv duh prghoohg lq wkh iroorzlqj zd|= 3{| %8™| @ %8™|3 hE . 8™| =zkhuh wkh wlph ehwzhhq wzr frqvhfxwlyh wudqvdfwlrqv + w, lv h{solflwo| dffrxqwhg iru dv lwlqwhudfwv zlwk wkh dxwruhjuhvvlyh vwuxfwxuh ri wkh yduldqfh1 Dovr/ dqg duh frqvwdqwv wreh hvwlpdwhg wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh rwkhu sdudphwhuv1 Wkh uhvxowv djuhh zlwk wkh rqhv uhsruwhglq wkh wh{w1
  • 46. K6= Pdunhw pdnhuv* vwudwhjlf uhdfwlrqv wr lqirupdwlrq= klglqj yv1 h{0 shulphqwdwlrqRqh srvvleoh sureohp lq wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh orjlw prgho lv wkh txdqwlfdwlrq ri wkhrxwvlgh dowhuqdwlyh +vf , jlyhq wkdw wklv vkrxog dffrxqw iru vlwxdwlrqv zkhuh wkhuh lv sxuhh{rjhqrxv wudgh/ dqg zkhuh wkh pdunhw pdnhu zlwkgudzv iurp wkh pdunhw1 Wr frshzlwk wklv/ zh ghqh wzr dowhuqdwlyh vshflfdwlrqv= lq wkh uvw rqh/ zh frqvlghu rqo| wkhfdvhv zkhuh wkhuh lv dw ohdvw rqh hqgrjhqrxv wudqvdfwlrq lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh D Wkhvh duh wkh wudghv iru zklfk wkh ohduqlqj pdwul{ lv ghqhg1 Wkdw lv/ wkh wudqvdfwlrqkdv ehhq ruljlqdwhg e| d ghdohu zlwk d ydoxh ri vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw dw wkh 8( ohyho1 68
  • 47. ruljlqdwlqj wudgh1S Lq wkh vhfrqg vshflfdwlrq/ zh frqvlghu doo wkh fdvhv/ dvvljqlqj dzhljkw ri 433( wr wkh fkrlfh wr jr h{rjhqrxv li qr wudqvdfwlrq wdnhv sodfh lq wkh 43plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudqvdfwlrq1 Khuh/ wkh revhuydwlrqv duh vwloo ghqhg lqwhupv ri wkh wudqvdfwlrq wlphv wkdw lv/ doo wkh wudqvdfwlrqv wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv lqyroyhglq gxulqj wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh lqfrplqj rqh1 Exw/ xqolnh wkh suhylrxv fdvh/ wkh|duh oxpshg wrjhwkhu hyhu| 43 plqxwhv rq wkh edvlv ri fdohqgdu wlph1 Wklv doorzv xv wrfdswxuh wkh ghflvlrq wr zlwkgudz iurp wkh pdunhw1 Lq wklv fdvh zh xvh forfn wlph1 Wkhuhvxowv djuhh zlwk wkh rqhv uhsruwhg lq wkh wh{w1 S Zh dovr orrnhg dw wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh owhu zdv wr frqvlghu rqo| wkh revhuydwlrqvuhodwlyh wr vlwxdwlrqv zkhuh wkhuh zhuh dw ohdvw wkuhh wudqvdfwlrqv gxulqj wkh 43 plqxwhviroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj lqfrplqj rughu1 Jlyhq wkdw wkh uhvxowv djuhh zlwk wkrvh edvhgrq d rqh wudqvdfwlrq owhu/ zh gr qrw uhsruw wkhp1 Wkh| duh dydlodeoh xsrq uhtxhvw iurpwkh dxwkruv1 69
  • 48. +iuihi?UitDplkxg/ dnry dqg Kdlp Phqghovrq/ _Ghdohuvkls Pdunhw/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Hfr0 qrplfv/ 4;3/ ;/ 64~851Ehqyhqlvwh/ Odzuhqfh P1/ Dodq M1 Pdufxv/ dqg Zlooldp M1 Zlokhop/ _Zkdw*v Vshfldo Derxw wkh VshfldolvwB/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Hfrqrplfv/ 45/ 65 +4,/ 94~;91Ehujhpdqq/ Glun dqg Mxxvr Ydolpdnl/ _Ohduqlqj dqg Vwudwhjlf Sulflqj/% Hfrqrphwulfd/ 49/ 97 +8,/ 4458~4471 dqg / _Pdunhw Glxvlrq zlwk Wzr0Vlghg Ohduqlqj/% UDQG Mrxuqdo ri Hfr0 qrplfv/ 4:/ 5; +7,/ ::6~:81Ehuu|/ Vwhyhq/ _Hvwlpdwlqj Glvfuhwh0Fkrlfh Prghov ri Surgxfw Glhuhqwldwlrq/% UDQG Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/ 47/ 58 +5,/ 575~5951 / Mdphv Ohylqvrkq/ dqg Dulho Sdnhv/ _Dxwrpreloh Sulfhv lq Pdunhw Htxloleulxp/% Hfrqrphwulfd/ 48/ 96 +7,/ ;74~;31Erowrq/ Sdwulfn dqg Fkulvwrskhu Kduulv/ _Vwudwhjlf H{shulphqwdwlrq/% Hfrqrphwulfd/ 4/ 9: +5,/ 67~6:71Fdr/ K1 Khqu| dqg Ulfkdug N1 O|rqv/ _Lqyhqwru| Lqirupdwlrq/% 41 Kddv Vfkrro ri Exvlqhvv Zrunlqj Sdshu1Fr{/ Mrkq dqg Pdun Uxelqvwhlq/ Rswlrqv Pdunhwv/ Hqjohzrrg Folv/ Qhz Mhuvh|= Suhqwlfh Kdoo/ 4;81Gldprqg/ Grxjodv Z1 dqg Urehuw H1 Yhuuhffkld/ _Frqvwudlqwv rq Vkruw0Vhoolqj dqg Dvvhw Sulfh Dgmxvwphqw wr Sulydwh Lqirupdwlrq/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Hfrqrplfv/ 4;:/ 4;/ 5::~6441Gxwwd/ Sudmlw N1 dqg Dqdqwk Pdgkdydq/ _Frpshwlwlrq dqg Frooxvlrq lq Ghdohu Pdunhwv/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfh/ 4:/ 85 +4,/ 578~5:91Hdvoh|/ Gdylg dqg Pdxuhhq R*Kdud/ _Wlph dqg wkh Surfhvv ri Vhfxulw| Sulfh Dgmxvwphqw/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfh/ 45/ 7: +5,/ 8:9~9381Ilvkpdq/ Plfkdho M1 dqg Iudqflv D1 Orqjvwd/ _Gxdo Wudglqj lq Ixwxuhv Pdunhwv/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfh/ 45/ 7: +5,/ 976~9:41Iohplqj/ Plfkdho M1 dqg Hol P1 Uhprorqd/ _Sulfh Irupdwlrq dqg Oltxlglw| lq wkh X1V1 Wuhdvxu| Pdunhw= Wkh Uhvsrqvh wr Sxeolf Lqirupdwlrq/% Wkh Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfh/ Qryhpehu 4/ 87 +8,/ 434~4481Irxfdxow/ W1/ D1 Urhoo/ dqg S1 Vdqgdv/ _Lpshuizfw Pdunhw Prqlwrulqj dqg VRHV Wudglqj/% Whfkqlfdo Uhsruw 41 KHF Zrunlqj Sdshu1Jduedgh/ Nhqqhwk G1/ Md| O1 Srpuhq}h/ dqg Zlooldp O1 Vloehu/ _Rq wkh Lqirupdwlrq Frqwhqw ri Sulfhv/% Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 4:/ 9 +4,/ 83~81 6:
  • 49. Jorvwhq/ Odzuhqfh U1 dqg Sdxo U1 Plojurp/ _Elg/ Dvn/ dqg Wudqvdfwlrq Sulfhv lq d Vshfldo0 lvw Pdunhw zlwk Khwhurjhqhrxvo| Lqiruphg Wudghuv/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Hfrqrplfv/ 4;8/ 47 +4,/ :4~4331Kdqvfk/ Rolyhu/ Qdud|dq 1 Qdln/ dqg V1 Ylvzdqdwkdq/ _Gr Lqyhqwrulhv Pdwwhu lq Ghdo0 huvkls PdunhwvB Hylghqfh iurp wkh Orqgrq Vwrfn H{fkdqjh/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfh/ 4;/ 86 +8,/ 4956~49891Kr/ Wkrpdv dqg Kdqv U1 Vwroo/ _Rswlpdo Ghdohu Sulflqj xqghu Wudqvdfwlrqv dqg Uhwxuq Xqfhuwdlqw|/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Hfrqrplfv/ 4;4/ +4,/ 7:~:61Lwr/ Wdndwrvkl/ Ulfkdug N1 O|rqv/ dqg Plfkdho W1 Phoylq/ _Lv Wkhuh Sulydwh Lqirupdwlrq lq wkh I[ PdunhwB Wkh Wrn|r H{shulphqw/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfh/ 4;/ 86 +6,/ 4444~ 44631Nhoohu/ Jrgiuh| dqg Vyhq Udg|/ _Rswlpdo H{shulphqwdwlrq lq d Fkdqjlqj Hqylurqphqw/% Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/ 4/ 99 +6,/ 7:8~83:1N|oh/ Doehuw V1/ _Frqwlqxrxv Dxfwlrqv dqg Lqvlghu Wudglqj/% Hfrqrphwulfd/ 4;8/ 86 +9,/ 4648~46681 / _Lqiruphg Vshfxodwlrq zlwk Lpshuihfw Frpshwlwlrq/% Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/ 4;/ 89 +6,/ 64:~6881Ohdfk/ M1 Fkulv dqg Dqdqwk Q1 Pdgkdydq/ _Lqwhuwhpsrudo Sulfh Glvfryhu| e| Pdunhw Pdnhuv= Dfwlyh yhuvxv Sdvvlyh Ohduqlqj/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Lqwhuphgldwlrq/ 45/ 5 +5,/ 53:~5681 dqg / _Sulfh H{shulphqwdwlrq dqg Vhfxulw| Pdunhw Vwuxfwxuh/% Uhylhz ri Il0 qdqfldo Vwxglhv/ 46/ 9 +5,/ 6:8~7371Olswvhu/ Urehuw dqg Doehuw Vklu|dhy/ Vwdwlvwlfv ri Udqgrp Surfhvvhv L= Jhqhudo Wkhru|/ Qhz run= Vsulqjhu0Yhuodj/ 4::1O|rqv/ Ulfkdug N1/ _Whvwv ri Plfurvwuxfwxudo K|srwkhvhv lq wkh Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Pdu0 nhw/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Hfrqrplfv/ 48/ 6 +506,/ 654~6841 / _D Vlpxowdqhrxv Wudgh Prgho ri wkh Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Krw Srwdwr/% Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 4:/ 75 +607,/ 5:8~5;1Pdgkdydq/ Dqdqwk dqg Vh|prxu Vplgw/ _D Ed|hvldq Prgho ri Lqwudgd| Vshfldolvw Sulf0 lqj/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Hfrqrplfv/ 44/ 63 +4,/ ~4671 / Pdwwkhz Ulfkdugvrq/ dqg Pdun Urrpdqv/ _Zk| Gr Vhfxulw| Sulfhv FkdqjhB D Wudqvdfwlrq0Ohyho Dqdo|vlv ri QVH Vwrfnv/% Uhylhz ri Ilqdqfldo Vwxglhv/ 4:/ 43 +7,/ 4368~43971Prvfdulql/ Jxvhssh dqg O1 Vplwk/ _Zdog Uhylvlwhg= Wkh Rswlpdo Ohyho ri H{shulphqwd0 wlrq2/% 53331Sdjdq/ Dguldq/ _Hfrqrphwulf Lvvxhv lq wkh Dqdo|vlv ri Uhjuhvvlrqv zlwk Jhqhudwhg Uh0 juhvvruv/% Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 4;7/ 58 +5,/ 554~5791Urhoo/ Dlovd/ _Gxdo0Fdsdflw| Wudglqj dqg wkh Txdolw| ri wkh Pdunhw/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Lqwhuphgldwlrq/ 43/ 4 +4,/ 438~4571 6;
  • 50. Wdeoh 41 Vdpsoh Ghvfulswlrq Wkh vdpsoh frqvlvwv ri 4/66/76: wudqvdfwlrqv rq wkh vhfrqgdu| pdunhw +Phufdwr Whohpdwlfrghl wlwrol gl Vwdwr, lq wkh shulrg iurp Vhswhpehu 5/ 47 wr Iheuxdu| 5;/ 491 Lq Sdqho D zhghvfuleh wkh erqgv vhohfwhg iru wkh vwxg|1 Lq Sdqho E zh uhsruw yroxph +phdvxuhg dv qxpehuri wudqvdfwlrqv, eurnhq grzq e| wkh w|sh ri ghdohu1 Lq Sdqho F zh uhsruw dyhudjh gdlo| yroxph+phdvxuhg dv idfh ydoxh ri wkh erqgv wudghg wlphv qxpehu ri erqgv,1 Zh frqvlghu ryhudoo yroxph/yroxph eurnhq grzq rq wkh edvlv ri wkh w|sh ri lqwhuphgldwlqj pdunhw pdnhuv dqg yroxph eurnhqgrzq rq wkh edvlv ri erwk lqwhuphgldwlqj pdunhw pdnhu dqg wkh w|sh ri wkh ghdohu zkr ruljlqdwhvwkh wudgh1 Lq Sdqho G zh uhsruw d vwdwlvwlfv ri wkh wudqvdfwlrqv +ghqhg lq whupv ri idfh ydoxh,eurnhq grzq e| vl}h1 Sdqho D= W|shv ri Erqgv Gdlo| Yroxph/ eoq Oluh Erqg w|sh Wudqvdfwlrqv Phdq Vwg1 Ghy1 Phglxp0 dqg Orqj0whup W1 Erqgv +EWS, 4/3;4/78 45/:;3 6/73 Ilqdqfldoo| Lqgh{hg Erqgv +FFW, 634/639 6/:43 6/933 ]hur0frxsrq W0Qrwhv +FW], 43/4;9 6 437 Sdqho E= Wudqvdfwlrq Vwdwlvwlfv ri wkh Vhfrqgdu| Pdunhw Wudgh ruljlqdwlqj ghdohu Lqwhuphgldwlqj pdunhw pdnhu Wrwdo Vshfldolvwv Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhuv Rug1 Ghdohu Vshfldolvwv :5:/:7: 595/9;7 55/7; 4:5/898 Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhuv 998/93 575/43 577/394 4:;/:4 Wrwdo 4/66/76: 838/87 869/88 684/5;7 Sdqho F= Gdlo| Yroxph Vwdwlvwlfv ri Vhfrqgdu| Pdunhw +Eoq Oluh, Phdq Vwg1 Ghy1 Pd{ Ryhudoo 74613; 6881:8 74:8 Lqwhuphgldwlqj pdunhw pdnhu Vshfldolvwv 98;1;8 6;7179 74:8 Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhuv 5;618: 58;183 5883 Lqwhuphgldwlqj pdunhw pdnhu Ruljlqdwlqj ghdohu Vshfldolvwv Vshfldolvwv 56138 475168 4443 Vshfldolvwv Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhuv 599184 4:61;; 4:98 Vshfldolvwv Rug1 Ghdohuv 4881;3 434198 46:3 Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhuv Vshfldolvwv 437136 43314: 4683 Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhuv Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhuv 439186 438168 ;83 Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhuv Rug1 Ghdohuv ;61:8 :1:9 98 Sdqho G= Vl}h Glvwulexwlrq ri Wudqvdfwlrqv Wudqvdfwlrq vl}h +Eoq Oluh, Iudfwlrq ri ryhudoo wudqvdfwlrqv 8 ;;14( 43 4314( 48 413( 53 31;( 6
  • 51. Wdeoh 51 Pdunhw pdnhuv* sulruv ryhu rwkhu ghdohuv* lqirupdwlyhqhvv Zh uhsruw wkh vwdwlvwlfv ri wkh ohduqlqj frhflhqw lq wkh uhjuhvvlrq +4;, S8™| @ W8™| . %8™|Iru hdfk wudglqj gd| zh frqvlghu wkh sdluzlvh uhodwlrq ri hdfk ghdohu m yhuvxv doo wkh rwkhu lghdohuv lq suhylrxv whq wudglqj gd|v1 S8™| @ +S8™|nD S8™| , lv wkh fkdqjh lq sulfh S8™| lq wkh 8plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudqvdfwlrq zkloh uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv riwkh vshflf ghdohu1 Zh ghqh W8™| dv wkh vljqhg yroxph uhfhlyhg e| wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu iurpwkh l0wk ghdohu iru wkh n0wk erqg dw wlph w1 Iru hdfk vlqjoh pdunhw pdnhu d yhfwru lv ghqhg wkdwfrqwdlqv klv hvwlpdwhg ri wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri doo wkh rwkhu ghdohuv + ,1 Zh uhsruww0vwdwlvwlfv ri wkh k|srwkhvlv @ 31 Wkh uhsruwhg kdyh ehhq pxowlsolhg e| 43331 Sdqho D= Ohduqlqj frhflhqw Lqvwlwxwlrqdo Fodvvlfdwlrq ri Ghdohuv Q Phdq Vwg1Ghy1 Plq1 Pd{1 w0vwdwlvwlfv Ryhudoo 8:/967 04163 51858 054175 5617: 045619 Lqwhuphgldwlqj pdunhw pdnhu Ruljlqdwlqj ghdohu Vshfldolvw Vshfldolvw /944 04164 416: 0;14 ;1:9 0714 Vshfldolvw Pdunhw Pdnhu 45/994 0415: 515 045156 451;5 09516 Vshfldolvw Rug1 Ghdohu 7/35: 0317: 6199 04;198 413 0;145 Pdunhw Pdnhu Vshfldolvw 46/395 0418: 5148 046188 431:6 0;616 Pdunhw Pdnhu Pdunhw Pdnhu 47/34 04184 5199 04515: 48198 09:18 Pdunhw Pdnhu Rug1 Ghdohu 7/4;5 03195 61;: 054175 5617: 04316 Sdqho E= Ohduqlqj frhflhqw Wudglqj0edvhg Fodvvlfdwlrq ri Ghdohuv Lqwhuphgldwlqj Pdunhw Pdnhu Ruljlqdwlqj ghdohu Q Phdq Vwg1Ghy1 Plq1 Pd{1 w0vwdwlvwlfv Vohhs| Vohhs| 5/467 0415; 5198 054175 5617: 0;51:5 Vohhs| Vnhswlf 4/;95 03188 51;3 0441;3 ;187 0;186 Vohhs| Vqhdn| /863 0419 414 045156 48198 0;9197 Vnhswlf Vohhs| 6/;8; 04194 516; 04;198 441;9 07418 Vnhswlf Vnhswlf 4;: 0416: 614; 01;5 431;; 0815 Vnhswlf Vqhdn| 4/489 041;5 4166 0;14: 8133 0791;5 Vqhdn| Vohhs| /339 0316 51:8 045175 45178 0641;: Vqhdn| Vnhswlf 9:; 03157 51;8 043145 51;8 05149 Vqhdn| Vqhdn| 5/556 0417: 41 044133 :15 0671; 73
  • 52. Wdeoh 61 D uvw whvw ri vwudwhjlf ehkdylru Zh uhsruw wkh uhvxowv ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh prgho v8™| @ . … L™| . 2 . g . 8™|T8™| . %8™| = Khuh v8™| lv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq hqgrjhqrxv wudgh dqg wrwdo wudgh ri wkh m0wkghdohu iru wkh n0wk erqg lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh +wlph w,1 Zh vhohfw rqo|%lqirupdwlyh% wudqvdfwlrqv/ l1h1 wudqvdfwlrqv wkdw zhuh ruljlqdwhg e| d ghdohu zkrp pdunhw pdnhulv frqghqw wr eh lqiruphg +s0ydoxh ri h{fhhgv 31,1 T8™| lv wkh vl}h ri wkh rughu zklfk wkh m0wkghdohu uhfhlyhv iurp l0wk ghdohu iru wkh n0wk erqg dw wlph w1 L™| uhsuhvhqwv d phdvxuh ri wkh ghjuhhri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh l0wk ghdohu dv shufhlyhg e| wkh m0wk ghdohu1 Zh frqvlghu wzr dowhuqdwlyhphdvxuhv ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv/ wkh s0ydoxh ri wkh frhflhqw dqg wkh surgxfw ehwzhhq wkh dqg s0ydoxh1 Wkh uvw sur{| uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghjuhh ri dffxudf| ri wkh vljqdo +ghqhg dv 4 lq wkhfdvh ri yhu| vljqlfdqw yduldeoh dqg 3 lq wkh fdvh ri lqvljqlfdqw rqh,1 Wkh vhfrqg sur{lhv iru wkh%h{shfwhg% ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohu1 2 lv wkh yduldqfh ri wkh n0wk erqg lq wkh 8™|43 plqxwhv ehiruh wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudqvdfwlrq/ zkloh g lv d gxpp| wkdw frqwurov iru wkh ghdohu*vlglrv|qfudwlf fkdudfwhulvwlfv1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq lv grqh xvlqj d frqvlvwhqw yduldqfh0fryduldqfh pdwul{jhqhudol}hg phwkrg ri prphqwv hvwlpdwru1 Odjv ri h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv/ ryhuqljkw/ rqh zhhn/rqh0prqwk/ wzr0prqwk dqg wkuhh prqwk lqwhuhvw udwhv zhuh xvhg dv lqvwuxphqwv1 Wkh w0vwdwlvwlfvri hvwlpdwhv duh uhsruwhg lq eudfnhwv1 sw lv wkh s0ydoxh ri Kdqvhq*v ryhulghqwlfdwlrq fulwhulrq1 Sdqho D= Qrq0dxfwlrq shulrgv Lqwhuphgldwlqj Pdunhw Pdnhu Q LF„ L dD 2 8™| g T8™| sw Ryhudoo 57/7:; 3187 4513; 0 06174 03194 013346 3166 +:41:3, +51;5, 0 +051:, +041;6, +0515, 0516; 0 51 051:9 0314; 013394 3166 +0615, 0 +71;7, +0518, +03185, +0614, Vshfldolvw 49/6:; 3186 19 0 051: 03195 013339 3159 +89164, +5134, 0 +0514;, +0417, +0319, 051:6 0 6167 0518; 4414 01333 31:8 +0618, 0 +71:8, +0516, 5195 +04185, Ruglqdu| Pdunhw Pdnhu ;/433 3187 417 0 071;3 0581 01335; 3163 +7916, +6154, 0 +05188, +07166, +0617:, 041; 0 5185 051:4 0561: 013368 316 +041:, 0 +5166, 0418 +061;7, +07164, Sdqho E= Dxfwlrq shulrgv Lqwhuphgldwlqj Pdunhw Pdnhu Q LF„ L dD 2 8™| g T8™| sw Ryhudoo 6/:3 3188 :18 0 0;156 316 013368 3155 +63173, +31:5, 0 +041:8, +317;, +05177, 05146 0 5187 0:173 4135 013374 31; +0416, 0 +5178, +041:6, +414;, +0515, Vshfldolvw 4/533 3189 03184 0 04418 5134 013384 3196 +531:, +03136, 0 +0419, +417;, +05188, 41:8 0 04154 0441:5 414 031338 31 +4135, 0 +0319, +041;9, +4163, +0517:, Ruglqdu| Pdunhw Pdnhu 5/83 3185 5:1;7 0 0;18 0813; 013344 314: +54153, +5135, 0 +04196, +03138, +031:8, 07144 0 71:8 081:9 3177 013363 31 +06139, 0 +617;, +0414:, +3175, +04195, 74
  • 53. Wdeoh 71 Whvwlqj wkh h{lvwhqfh ri glhuhqwldo ehkdylru Zh uhsruwv wkh uhvxowv ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri= v @ . L™| . 2 . g . T8™| . %8™| 8™| 8™|zkhuh v lv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq hqgrjhqrxv lqiruphg wudgh dqg wrwdo hqgrjhqrxv wudgh ri wkh m0wk 8™|ghdohu iru wkh n0wk erqg lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh +wlph w,1 Hqgrjhqrxvwudgh lv vsolw lq wkuhh jurxsv/ ghshqglqj rq wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohuv zkrpwkh klw ghdohu dssurdfkhv1 Zh xvh wkh s0ydoxh ri wkh frhflhqw dv ghqhg lq htxdwlrq +4;,wr phdvxuh wkh dffxudf| ri wkh vljqdo ri wkh ghdohu wkh %klw% pdunhw pdnhu lv sodflqj klv rughuzlwk1 T8™| lv wkh vl}h ri wkh rughu zklfk wkh m0wk ghdohu uhfhlyhv e| l0wk ghdohu +wkh %ruljlqdwlqjghdohu%, iru wkh n0wk erqg dw wlph w1 L™| uhsuhvhqwv d phdvxuh ri wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv riwkh l0wk ghdohu dv shufhlyhg e| wkh m0wk ghdohu1 Zh uhsruw wkh uhvxowv iru wzr dowhuqdwlyh phdvxuhvri lqirupdwlyhqhvv/ wkh s0ydoxh ri wkh frhflhqw / dqg wkh surgxfw ehwzhhq wkh dqg s0ydoxh1Wkh uvw sur{| uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghjuhh ri dffxudf| ri wkh vljqdo +ghqhg dv 4 lq wkh fdvh ri yhu|vljqlfdqw yduldeoh dqg 3 lq wkh fdvh ri lqvljqlfdqw rqh,1 Wkh vhfrqg sur{lhv iru wkh %h{shfwhg%ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohu1 2 lv d sur{| ri wkh yrodwlolw| lq wkh pdunhw dw wkh wlph 8™|zkhq wkh ghdohu uhfhlyhv wkh lqfrplqj rughu1 Lw lv ghqhg dv wkh yduldqfh ri wkh n0wk erqg lq wkh43 plqxwhv ehiruh wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudqvdfwlrq/ zkloh g lv d gxpp| wkdw frqwurov iru wkh ghdohu*vlglrv|qfudwlf fkdudfwhulvwlfv1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq lv grqh xvlqj d frqvlvwhqw yduldqfh0fryduldqfh pdwul{jhqhudol}hg phwkrg ri prphqwv hvwlpdwru1 Odjv ri h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv/ ryhuqljkw/ rqh zhhn/rqh0prqwk/ wzr0prqwk dqg wkuhh prqwk lqwhuhvw udwhv zhuh xvhg dv lqvwuxphqwv1 Wkh w0vwdwlvwlfvri hvwlpdwhv duh uhsruwhg lq eudfnhwv1 Wkh s0ydoxh ri Kdqvhq*v ryhulghqwlfdwlrq fulwhulrq +sw , lvdovr uhsruwhg iru hdfk uhjuhvvlrq1 IUD uhsuhvhqwv wkh dffxudf| ri wkh lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh IlqdoUhflslhqw/ wkdw lv wkh ghdohu zkrp wkh %klw% pdunhw pdnhu lv sodflqj klv rughu zlwk1 Lw lv wkhs0ydoxh ri wkh frhflhqw dv ghqhg lq htxdwlrq +4;,1 75
  • 54. Sdqho D= Qrq0dxfwlrq shulrgvLqwhuphgldwlqj YduldeohPdunhw Pdnhu IUD LF„ L dD 2 8™| g T8™| swRyhudoo A31 3193 :5157 0 04318 0196 01335;3 31+Q@57/7:;, +75159, +;154, 0 +0619, +045143, +0619, 318 31 3166 04519 0 175 6177 0133347 3156 +5;15, +041, 0 +7193, +:169, +03158, ?318 3184 8916 0 061; 07184 013364 3145 +51:, +81:6, 0 +0418;, +08197, +06176, A31 08197 0 917: 313: 0;15 01337 3175 +0815, 0 +819, +3136, +04616, +0813:, 318 31 8163 0 0813 ;1:6 519: 13335 31 +81, 0 +08198, +8165, +817, +3164, ?318 043199 0 4417: 319 05184 013374 3143 +09167, 0 +91:3, 3173 0514 06196Vshfldolvwv A31 3196 9418 0 045196 043155 013363 314+Q@49/6:;, +68159, +8183, 0 +07157, +047145, +0616, 318 31 3165 0;177 0 134 515 013335 315: +551, +031, 0 +619;, +8135, +03159, ?318 3187 5819 0 09148 08145 013364 31;4 +5818, +5137, 0 +04196, +08148, +06147, A31 08144 0 815 06154 016: 013374 31:4 +0714, 0 +71:;, +0415;, +045184, +0713, 318 31 4183 0 04155 ;1 51: 13339 315: +4183, 0 +0414, +7163, +7199, +313, ?318 061;6 0 717; 061:9 07168 01336: 3173 +0514:, 0 +5184, +0413, +07149, +06154,Pdunhw Pdnhu A31 3193 9518 0 05184 0;15 013367 31Q@;/433 +5815;, +714, 0 +0318;, +0:175, +05146, 318 31 3167 074156 0 45139 8158 013337 316: +417;, +0718;, 0 +61:5, +918;, +0316:, ?318 3185 :3137 0 31:;: 0814: 013368 3155 +531;4, +817;, 0 +3154, +07135, +05144, A31 09165 0 :14: 9155 091:; 01337; 31: +0615:, 0 +6196, +41;3, +09139, +0618:, 318 31 :14 0 0:138 91:6 7156 1333: 31;; +71;4, 0 +07196, +5173, +8147, +3194, ?318 0481;: 0 491;8 :157 06167 013386 3194 +0813:, 0 +815:, +41:4, +0514;, +05144, 76
  • 55. Sdqho E= Dxfwlrq shulrgvLqwhuphgldwlqj YduldeohPdunhw Pdnhu IUD LF„ L dD 2 8™| g T8™| swRyhudoo A31 319: 8186 0 08144 0;17 01336 3175+Q@6/:3, +53167, +516, 0 +03197, +09194, +061:7, 318 31 315; 418; 0 :19; 716; 13345 3164 +43134, +3143, 0 +4167, +61:, +3189, ?318 3185 ;91; 0 041:4 0:163 013394 3165 +4616;, +6143, 0 +03155, +07167, +05164, A31 081:: 0 9196 41; 0:1;3 013453 3177 +051:, 0 +6169, +315, +0815;, +07194, 318 31 :13; 0 0914 431:: 6149 13344 314; +61;9, 0 +061:4, +5135, +5189, +3193, ?318 04518 0 46179 03155 0716 013436 3147 +06149, 0 +6164, +03136, +0419, +06173,Vshfldolvwv A31 319; 771;4 0 4196 08136 013363 31;4+Q@4/533, +4:134, +416, 0 +314, +08147, +06147, 318 31 3165 04416: 0 ;18 6165 01333: 317; +174, +0318:, 0 +4166, +5173, +03166, ?318 3185 :31;5 0 4196 0;175 0133:: 3157 +188, +5138, 0 +314, +07158, +05164, A31 0719: 0 8135 04134 013; 013444 3156 +05143, 0 +5178, +03146, +08174, +06174, 318 31 8179 0 08157 ;167 5184 013336 3164 +51;6, 0 +0519:, +4164, +41:8, +03145, ?318 0517 0 614: ;173 0;155 013449 3153 +03198, 0 +5134, +4147, +061;8, +06193,Pdunhw Pdnhu A31 31:4 4;146 0 ;137 0:18 013453 314:Q@5/83 +9139, +31:5, 0 +3185, +0518:, +06169, 318 31 315; 065146 0 46168 :194 13357 3148 +914;, +04157, 0 +4165, +6187, +31;9, ?318 3174 451;4 0 059143 09153 013349 318 +:14:, +7199, 0 +0419:, +05133, +03169, A31 081;; 0 91:7 9185 07188 013443 3197 +0419, 0 +414, +3178, +04178, +06135, 318 31 7173 0 07158 157 917; 13365 3179 +4163, 0 +04156, +4144, +51:, +414;, ?318 0471;6 0 481:9 0451 0166 0133;7 3165 +0516:, 0 +517:, +03183, +03155, +04184, 77
  • 56. Wdeoh 81 Klglqj yv1 h{shulphqwdwlrq= Wudqvdfwlrqv0edvhg vshflfdwlrq1 Zh uhsruw wkh uhvxowv ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri= oq+v™| , oq+v f™| , @ f . # oq+v|ƒec•t , . F„ HY™| . j 2 . . | = 8™|zkhuh/ v| l @ 4 === 8 lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw m0wk pdunhw pdnhu zrxog vhohfw l0wk hqgrjhqrxvdowhuqdwlyh1 v| lv ghqhg dv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh rughuv wkdw wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu sodfhv zlwkwkh pdunhw pdnhuv ehorqjlqj wr wkh l0wk jurxs lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh/dqg wkh wrwdo dprxqw ri wudghv +erwk hqgrjhqrxv dqg h{rjhqrxv, wkdw kh ghdov zlwk lq wkh vdphlqwhuydo1 vf| lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu zrxog vhohfw h{rjhqrxv dowhuqdwlyh= Lwlv ghqhg dv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh rughuv wkdw wkh l0wk pdunhw pdnhu uhfhlyhv iurp rwkhu pdunhwpdnhuv lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj rughu/ dqg wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri wudghv +erwk Shqgrjhqrxv dqg h{rjhqrxv, wkdw kh ghdov zlwk gxulqj wkh vdph lqwhuydo1 v|ƒec•t @ v| @ D v|lv wkh suredelolw| ri wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh frqglwlrqdo rq kdylqj ghflghg wr jr hqgrjhqrxv1 Wkdw lv/lw lv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh rughuv wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu sodfhv zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv ehorqjlqjwr wkh l0wk fkrlfh jurxs lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj rughu/ dqg wkh wrwdo qxpehuri rughuv wkdw/ gxulqj wkh vdph lqwhuydo/ wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu sodfhv1 # uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghjuhhri khwhurjhqhlw| dfurvv dowhuqdwlyhv frqglwlrqdo rq kdylqj fkrvhq wr jr hqgrjhqrxv1 HY™| lv wkhdyhudjh glhuhqfh lq h{shfwhg ydoxh ehwzhhq rxwjrlqj hqgrjhqrxv wudgh dqg lqfrplqj wudgh ryhuwkh 43 plqxwh lqwhuydo iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudqvdfwlrq/ dqg lv wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq risulfhv ri wkh erqg lq wkh 43 plqxwhv diwhu wkh wudqvdfwlrq1 Hdfk pdunhw pdnhu fdq fkrrvh wr sodfh wkh rughu zlwk _vpduw pdunhw0wlphuv%/ _pdunhw wlphuv%/_dyhudjhv%/ _txdvl0frqwuduldqv% dqg _frqwuduldqv%1 Wkh vpduw pdunhw wlphuv duh wkh ghdohuv zkrpwkh pdunhw pdnhu lv frqghqw +zlwk frqghqfh lq h{fhvv ri 3(, duh deoh wr vxffhvvixoo| wlph wkhpdunhw/ l1h1/ wkh| ex| ehiruh dq lqfuhdvh lq sulfhv dqg vhoo ehiruh d uhgxfwlrq lq sulfhv1 Wkh pdunhwwlphuv duh wkh rqhv wkh pdunhw pdnhu eholhyhv wr eh deoh wr vxffhvvixoo| wlph wkh pdunhw zlwkfrqghqfh ehwzhhq 83 dqg 3(1 Wkh dyhudjhv duh wkh rqhv zkrp wkh pdunhw pdnhu kdv orznqrzohgjh derxw +frqghqfh ohyho orzhu wkdq 83(,1 Wkh frqwuduldqv duh wkh pdunhw pdnhuv zkrpwkh pdunhw pdnhuv lv yhu| frqghqw +3( frqghqfh ohyho, iroorz frqwuduldq vwudwhjlhv +vhoo ehiruhlqfuhdvh lq sulfhv dqg ex| ehiruh d uhgxfwlrq lq sulfhv,1 Ilqdoo| wkh txdvl0frqwuduldqv duh wkhpdunhw pdnhuv zkrp wkh pdunhw pdnhu eholhyhv wr iroorz frqwuduldq vwudwhjlhv zlwk d frqghqfhehwzhhq 83( dqg 3(1 Wkh prgho lv hvwlpdwhg iru hdfk pdunhw pdnhu vhsdudwho| rq wkh edvlv riwudqvdfwlrq wlph1 Wkhq wkh pdunhw pdnhuv duh fodvvlhg lqwr wkuhh jurxsv edvhg rq wkh qdwxuh riwkhlu uhvsrqvh wr lqiruphg wudgh +frhflhqw F„ ,1 Wkh uhvxowv ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq djjuhjdwhg ryhuwkrvh wkuhh jurxsv duh uhsruwhg lq Sdqho D1 Wkh uhvxowv ri wkh vlplodu hvwlpdwlrq djjuhjdwhg ryhuwkh rfldo fodvvlfdwlrq ri ghdohuv duh uhsruwhg lq Sdqho E1 Zh uhsruw wkh uhvxowv ri hvwlpdwlrq eurnhq grzq e| suhflvlrq ri lqfrplqj vljqdo1 Jurxsv L wrY fruuhvsrqg wr wkh wudqvdfwlrqv lqlwldwhg e| _vpduw pdunhw wlphuv/% _pdunhw wlphuv/% _dyhudjhv/%_txdvl0frqwuduldqv% dqg _frqwuduldqv%/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Lq Sdqho F wkh vshflfdwlrq grhv qrw frqwdlq2 / exw wkh hvwlpdwlrqv duh shuiruphg vhsdudwho| iru shulrgv ri %kljk% dqg %orz% yrodwlolw| 2 1 %Kljk% yrodwlolw| shulrgv duh ghqhg dv wkh shulrgv zkhq wkh gdlo| yrodwlolw| h{fhhgv gdlo| yrodwlo0lw| ryhu wkh odvw 43 wudglqj gd|v1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq lv grqh xvlqj d yduldqfh0fryduldqfh frqvlvwhqwjhqhudol}hg phwkrg ri prphqwv hvwlpdwru1 Odjv ri h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv/ ohduqlqj frhflhqw rilqfrplqj wudgh dqg ri wkh suhfhhglqj wudqvdfwlrq duh hpsor|hg dv lqvwuxphqwv1 w0vwdwlvwlfvri hvwlpdwhv duh uhsruwhg lq eudfnhwv1 Wkh s0ydoxh ri Kdqvhq*v ryhulghqwlfdwlrq fulwhulrq +sw , lvuhsruwhg iru hdfk uhjuhvvlrq1 78
  • 57. Wdeoh 8/ frqwlqxhg1 Sdqho D= Wudglqj0edvhg Fodvvlfdwlrq/ Vhsdudwlrq Ryhu Suhflvlrq ri Vljqdo L LL LLL LY Y Vnhswlf f 03174 +04189, 0316: +05715;, 03174 +04173, 03164 +0;18, 03165 +071:8, F„ 0;7177 +08169, 09149 +07195, 8715; +4194, ;:135 +7148, 69167 +41;4, j 065136 +041:, 0:143 +0;18, 069183 +05199, 0716: +0319, 0436199 +06178, # 3165 +49185, 3168 +54185, 316; +5:134, 3177 +49138, 316 +:19:, sw 3157 31: 317: 31; 3143 Q /:54 45/46 4/744 6/649 :88 Vohhs| f 0315; +0671:, 0315: +077157, 03157 +06167, 0315 +05714, 03164 +04617, F„ 6614: +81;, 641:6 +7174, 471:6 +4139, 0461: +04199, 043186 +0414;, j 04:1: +07179, 043166 +05136, 045139 +0616;, 0441 +05179, 045195 +04166, # 317: +93197, 3179 +9:14, 3178 +;4168, 3176 +741;8, 316 +5319, sw 315: 31; 31 3185 316 Q 86/:6 ;6/98 499/;74 64/947 ;/636 Vqhdn| f 0316: +05719;, 03169 +0641;, 03164 +06614, 0317 +058145, 03189 +04:1:8, F„ 99144 +:133, 3143 +918, 04148 +031;:, 045;177 +0;1:9, 017 +0;15:, j 57158 +715, 4717; +5189, 43159 +5154, 65196 +6197, 8184 +317, # 3185 +6:188, 3186 +791;5, 3187 +9718, 318 +61:, 3193 +5:177, sw 3147 314; 3143 318 315: Q 54/:5; 6;/:;5 ;9/896 4/4 9/467 Sdqho E= Lqvwlwxwlrqdo Fodvvlfdwlrq/ Vhsdudwlrq Ryhu Suhflvlrq ri Vljqdo L LL LLL LY Y Vshfldolvw f 03167 +073177, 03167 +083173, 03165 +076148, 03175 +063146, 03184 +053133, F„ 571:3 +61:7, 771: +71;8, 4417 +3198, 0:7169 +0:165, 0;4158 +0;135, j 044155 +05184, 0;1; +05179, 315 +3145, 715 +4184, 49155 +4189, # 317: +89146, 317; +951:9, 317 +:183, 3185 +771:, 3184 +5:1:7, sw 317: 3157 31 3197 313 Q 89/;4; ;7/448 48/7:8 66/79: /5: Rug1 Pdunhw Pdnhu f 03159 +055193, 03159 +06316:, 03155 +0651;, 0315; +04145, 0315; +043134, F„ 5174 +7167, 5819 +6146, 46157 +31:, 04;1 +0418, 05144 +03153, j 0581; +0716, 04615 +041:4, 04616 +06177, 045148 +05145, 05183 +05147, # 3179 +7413, 317: +86144, 3177 +99179, 3179 +69144, 3179 +53187, sw 3177 319 314; 31;9 3153 Q 5;/6:3 83/::4 446/673 54/6;5 8/;8 79
  • 58. Wdeoh 8/ frqwlqxhg1 Sdqho F= Wudglqj0edvhg Fodvvlfdwlrq/ Vhsdudwlrq Ryhu Suhflvlrq ri Vljqdo dqg Kljk2Orz Yrodwlolw| Shulrgv L LL LLL LY Y 2 Orz Kljk Orz Kljk Orz Kljk Orz Kljk Orz Kljk Vnhswlf f 03174 03178 03178 03179 03174 0317 03177 03178 03165 0316: +05515, +05519;, +064163, +065195, +053134, +0571:7, +046149, +0461:;, +071:8, +0813;, F„ 0;178 0:;155 046;154 09914; 9:15; 6:176 66167 6;15; ;81:8 79148 +0913, +07169, +08158, +051:8, +4167, +31:, +416, +418, +6154, +5156, # 3183 3179 3184 3184 3188 3186 3187 318: 3183 3184 +6716:, +63143, +6:19;, +6;193, +7;196, +7:198, +5517, +581:4, +4414:, +4315:, Q 7/55 7/: 9/454 9/34; /;54 /83 4/943 4/:39 73; 67: sw 3163 3149 3148 3139 3188 31:3 31;9 314 31;: 3148 Vohhs| f 03173 03176 0316 03174 0316; 03173 03174 03175 0317 0317 +06617:, +06814, +07:16;, +08313:, +076143, +0771;3, +05814:, +05817:, +048136, +047148, F„ 58195 4189 185 6175 31:8 5187 :19 8188 05:15; 04617: +6155, +516:, +31;9, +3167, +3137, +4183, +3193, +3177, +05148, +04144, # 316; 316 316 3169 316; 3167 3167 316: 316 315; +64136, +65155, +6:1:;, +69148, +7:176, +7616:, +5715, +571;3, +4615, +431:, Q 59/7:; 5:/594 74/438 75/;93 ;7/956 ;5/54; 48/:8 48/;88 6/9 7/667 sw 315; 3156 31;6 31;7 31 313 31; 31:8 31;7 3155 Vqhdn| f 03193 03193 0318: 03188 0317 03183 0319: 0319 03199 031:3 +054135, +0531::, +05;1;7, +051:8, +06519;, +06718, +05413;, +0561;;, +04714:, +0471;7, F„ 8;1;5 445175 46:196 479166 04;13 085153 0485168 04;71;: 0;4153 0;:154 +6178, +9157, +9179, +81;4, +03187, +04187, +08187, +0:15, +071;3, +0716, # 3178 3183 317 3185 317 3186 3185 3193 3197 3186 +4145, +541;8, +59143, +5;167, +6;199, +7415;, +5617:, +5:17, +53184, +4;166, Q 43/754 44/63: 4/373 4/:55 75/59 77/59: /:84 43/49; 5/;; 6/578 sw 319 313; 314; 3166 319; 3167 318 313: 31:8 31: 7:
  • 59. Wdeoh 9= Vwdwlvwlfdo ghvfulswlrq ri vqhdnlhv/ vohhslhv dqg vnhswlfv Zh uhsruw wkh vxppdu| vwdwlvwlfv iru wkh wudglqj0edvhg fodvvlfdwlrq ri wkh ghdohuv1 Wkhiudfwlrq ri wkh wudgh lqwhuphgldwhg e| d fodvv ri ghdohu lv fdofxodwhg dv wkh shufhqwdjh ri wudqvdfwlrqvlqwhuphgldwhg e| ghdohuv wkdw ehorqj wr d sduwlfxodu jurxs1 Zh uhsruw wkh phdq dqg vwdqgdugghyldwlrq ri gdlo| wudgh shu ghdohu1 Wkh| duh h{suhvvhg dw wkh idfh ydoxh ri wkh erqg wudghg1Udqnlqj lv rewdlqhg dv iroorzv= uvw ghdohuv duh vruwhg e| yroxph lqwhuphgldwhg1 Wkhq hdfk ghdohulv udqnhg lq ghvfhqglqj rughu1 Wkh dyhudjh udqnlqj lv fdofxodwhg iru hdfk jurxs1 Yroxph0zhljkwhgudqnlqj lv fdofxodwhg e| xvlqj yroxph dv zhljkw1 S Y u U„ @ S = YWzr udqnlqjv duh uhsruwhg1 Wkh uvw lv edvhg rq wkh wrwdo wudglqj yroxph wkh pdunhw pdnhuvlqwhuphgldwh/ zkloh wkh vhfrqg lv edvhg rqo| rq wkh yroxph wkh| jhqhudwh +hqgrjhqrxv wudgh,1 Vohhs| Vqhdn| Vnhswlf Qxpehu ri ghdohuv lq fdwhjru| 74 43 8 Vkduh ri ryhudoo h{rjhqrxv wudglqj +qxpehu ri wudqvdfwlrqv, 9415( 5713( 471;( Gdlo| H{rjhqrxv Wudgh/ Phdq +Eoq Oluh, 69418 7316 931 Gdlo| H{rjhqrxv Wudgh/ Vwg1 Ghy1 +Eoq Oluh, 63713 6916 7:;15 Dyhudjh udqnlqj ryhu h{rjhqrxv wudgh+rxw ri 89, 64 44 47 Dyhudjh yroxph0zhljkwhg udqnlqj ryhu h{rjhqrxv wudgh +rxw ri 89, 55 46 43 Gdlo| Hqgrjhqrxv Wudgh/Phdq +Eoq Oluh, 914 6;13 518 Gdlo| Hqgrjhqrxv Wudgh/ Vwg1 Ghy1 +Eoq Oluh, 56:19 65819 5813 Dyhudjh udqnlqj ryhu hqgrjhqrxv wudgh +rxw ri 695, 5: 54 55 Dyhudjh yroxph0zhljkwhg udqnlqj ryhu hqgrjhqrxv wudgh +rxw ri 695, 53 43 4 Vkduh ri ryhudoo hqgrjhqrxv wudglqj +qxpehu ri wudqvdfwlrqv, :315( 5415( ;19( Vkduh ri lqiruphg hqgrjhqrxv wudgh lq wrwdo hqgrjhqrxv wudgh 4918( 5715( 6713( 7;

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