Leadership Summit Presentation - Bill Van Amburg


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Leadership Summit Presentation - Bill Van Amburg

  1. 1. X Prize Business Accelerating Vehicle Adoption Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM Bill Van Amburg Senior Vice President Progressive Automotive X Prize Leadership Summit July 27, 2010
  2. 2. Criteria Emissions – New Ozone Rules Coming <ul><li>EPA announces it will strengthen ozone rules to meet health standards </li></ul><ul><li>Would replace standards from Bush Admin which were not as protective of health as science advisors had recommended </li></ul><ul><li>New rules would drop ozone limits to no more than 0.060 – 0.070 ppm ozone over 8 hours, phased in over up to 20 years </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Current limit 0.075 ppm </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Hundreds of additional counties will fall into non-compliance (from 322 today up to as many as 650 out of 675 monitored) </li></ul><ul><li>EPA finalizing rule – will issue final standards by Aug 31, 2010 – states would need to outline plans to meet standards by 2013 which go into effect in 2014 </li></ul><ul><li>Most-impacted regions receive to 2031 to comply </li></ul>
  3. 3. Regional Impact of Ozone Rules Example: Southern California <ul><li>LA region still has worst air quality in nation </li></ul><ul><li>SCAQMD supports the new ozone levels, but estimates to achieve them will require reducing NOx in region by additional 88-91%! </li></ul><ul><li>Could mean transition away from fossil fuel combustion </li></ul><ul><li>District believes it cannot achieve standards if federal emission sources (ships, trains, planes) do not significantly reduce their impacts </li></ul>We calculate that to demonstrate attainment of the proposed standard range would require 88 to 91% reductions in NOx emissions. This preliminary analysis means that we need to essentially transition out of fossil fuel combustion and move toward zero-emission technologies. - Dr. Barry Wallerstein, SCAQMD Executive Officer, in comments to EPA on proposed rule
  4. 4. Challenges <ul><li>Yes - </li></ul><ul><li>Cost; Distribution; Service; Scale Manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>But also: </li></ul><ul><li>Utility to User </li></ul><ul><li>Value Equation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What is the benefit case for the user? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fuel economy? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What else? </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Efficiency: What is Your Competition? <ul><ul><li>Average car: 12,000 miles/year; 20 mpg; (25mpg) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>600 gallons/year @$3/gal = $1800/year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>~12,000 lbs CO2 - 6 tons </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(480 gallons/year @$3/gal = $1440/year) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>**Commute Car: 7500 miles/year; 27.5 mpg </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>((273 gallons/year @$3/gal = $819/year)) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Xprize Car: 12,000 miles/year; 100 mpg </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>120 gallons/year @$3/gal = $360/year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>~2400 lbs CO2 - 2.4 tons </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Save: $1440/year ? ($1080) (($459)) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Own 5 years: $7200 ($5400) (($2259)) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Carbon savings: 3.6 tons @$3/ton? $20/ton? </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Segmentation <ul><li>What utility (use) can you really provide? </li></ul><ul><li>What market segments can you ideally serve with that use? </li></ul><ul><li>Everyone wants to be “the car for everyone.” You are not that car. You need to start with smart segments. </li></ul><ul><li>Think of finding beach heads – not your total market, but your best launch points </li></ul>
  7. 7. Example: Top Early Hybrid Truck Applications “ Beach Head” Markets Show Best First Promise Class 6-8 Heavy Urban delivery trucks -regional heavy distribution (beverage, grocery, postal) Specialty Truck Applications (Class 4-7) -Utility “ Bucket ” trucks -Telecom/cable trucks Class 3-6 Urban delivery trucks -package delivery -beverage delivery Class 7/8 Refuse trucks
  8. 8. North American Deployment & Assessment 24 Truck Deployment Locations HTUF Utility Hybrid Working Group Data Collection Will Assist with User Business Case Assessment AEP Alabama Power Baltimore Gas & Electric Duke Energy Entergy Exelon Florida Power and Light Georgia Power Hydro Quebec Missouri Dept. of Trans. PG&E Pepco/Conectiv Southern Calif Edison TXU
  9. 9. Data Collection and Validation <ul><li>Three basic trucks on two main chassis identified </li></ul><ul><li>High idling time </li></ul><ul><li>Sufficient purchase volumes to help launch market </li></ul>
  10. 10. Engaged in “Down Select” Exercise <ul><li>Fleets identified top performance requirements critical to operations </li></ul><ul><li>Then ranked/prioritized requirements to create a top-level specification </li></ul><ul><li>Results agreed to by Working Group </li></ul>
  11. 11. Four “Missions” <ul><li>Mission A </li></ul><ul><ul><li>70 miles driving; 3 service/site calls; 1.5 hours hydraulic operation (cycle 1) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mission B </li></ul><ul><ul><li>70 miles driving; 3 service/site calls; 1.5 hours hydraulic operation (cycle 1); 1.5 hours 2 kW </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mission C </li></ul><ul><ul><li>48 miles driving; 3 service/site calls; 3 hours hydraulic operation (cycle 1) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mission D </li></ul><ul><ul><li>38 miles driving; 2 service/site calls; 3 hours hydraulic operation (cycle 2) </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Fuel Economy (MPG) By Mission Fuel Economy Increase Over Baseline: 67% 62% 137% 150%
  13. 13. What Are Beach Heads for New Cars? “ Beach Head” Markets X Prize Fleet Staff Use Vehicle? Campus Car? -Business meetings, sales Urban Errand? -Does it drive sufficient miles to pay for itself? Urban Fleet/ Service Support? -Geek Squad -Specialty Delivery (pizza, flowers?0 Urban Commuter? Station Car?
  14. 14. Fleet Users <ul><li>Engage with users in your targeted segments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Many people do “voice of the customer” but few really listen </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Listen to their needs, not just your offerings – but seek commonalities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>User groups of interested first-mover fleets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Adapt your vehicle or offering to meet their needs where you can </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Does a much cheaper 75 mpg vehicle better meet their needs? </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Fleets/Corporations as Channel Partners <ul><li>Some companies have offered employee discounts on efficient vehicles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Google, Bank of America, Hyperion, Timberland - others </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ideal Case: will use your vehicles for own fleet uses; also offer the cars to their employees as well </li></ul><ul><li>High value co-brand </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Google, Apple, Progressive, Patagonia, AT&T, Verizon, Best Buy, Microsoft </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Fleet Benefits and Challenges <ul><li>Targeted launch and learn – limited customer base allows you to get it right </li></ul><ul><li>Targeted service and support – geographically, vehicle use; often return to base vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Can be regular, yearly market </li></ul><ul><li>High expectations; price and benefit sensitive; have been “burned” before </li></ul><ul><li>Need to focus on co-values (green image, leadership, employee retention) </li></ul>
  17. 17. New Incentives: Public and Private <ul><li>What new incentives can be built around the unique benefits and attributes of your vehicles? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Quiet? Small form factor? Lower carbon footprint? Fewer materials to make? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Added Benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Preferential parking? Access to special lanes, reduced tolls? Reduced registration? Reduced insurance? </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM www.calstart.org For info contact: Bill Van Amburg (626) 744-5600 [email_address]