Development Bank of Jamaica Presentation by Alexander Ochs

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The Worldwatch Institute's Director of Climate & Energy, Alexander Ochs, presents in Kingston to the Development Bank of Jamaica.about building a sustainable energy system in Jamaica.

The Worldwatch Institute's Director of Climate & Energy, Alexander Ochs, presents in Kingston to the Development Bank of Jamaica.about building a sustainable energy system in Jamaica.

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  • 1. Designing a Sustainable Energy System for Jamaica Alexander Ochs Worldwatch Institute First Scoping and Stakeholder Consultation Visit Development Bank of Jamaica, Kingston, 9 August 2011
  • 2. Global Energy Trends
  • 3. 2009 Global Primary Energy Supply by Source Renewables 11% Hydro 2% Nuclear 6% Fossil Fuels 81%Source: IEA.
  • 4. Average Annual Global Growth Rates by Energy Source, 2005-2010 60 49% 50 Growth Rate (%) 40 30 27% 25% 23% 20 10 2.6% 3% 3.4% 0% 0.8% 0Source: REN21 2011, BP.
  • 5. Global Electricity from Renewables 2002-2008 Renewable power generation additions as share of global power generation additions Renewable generation as % of global power generationSource: NEF 2009
  • 6. World Solar PV Capacity 1990-2010 40,000 36,000 32,000 28,000 Megawatts 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: REN21 2011
  • 7. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) 2010 8,000 7,000 6,000 Capacity (MW) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Currently operating Under Construction ProposedSource: REN21 2011
  • 8. World Solar Water Heating Capacity 1995-2010 200 180 160 Cumulative Installations (gigawatts-thermal) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009Source: IEA, REN21 2011
  • 9. Additional Observations from REN21 GSR 2011  As of early 2011, 118 nations have a renewable policy target or support policy in place  More than half of these are developing nations  More than 100 nations added solar PV capacity last year  Renewable energies now provide 3.5 million direct jobs worldwide  More public funding for renewable projects now goes through development banks than government stimulus packagesSource: REN21 2011
  • 10. Looking ahead:What is possible?
  • 11. Global Potential of Renewable Resources 1800 Energy Flow (exajoules per year) 1,600 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 600 503 500 400 250 200 50 1 0 World Solar Wind Geothermal Biomass Hydropower Ocean Energy SupplySource: IEA, Johansson et al.
  • 12. U.S. Electricity Generation bySource: Worldwatch Scenario 2030
  • 13. Energy Transitions: 2000 - 2100 2100 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 EJ/a 65% 2100 Exajoule per year Other Renewables Solar Thermal (heat) Solar Power (PV & solar thermal) Wind Biomass 2007 0.1% Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal Oil Global primary energy scenario: Renewables 80% of primary energy by 2100Source: www.wbgu.de
  • 14. Learning from the past: Winners and losers
  • 15. Renewables as a Share of Electricity Generation, 1991-2009* 25% Germany Spain United States Japan Portugal 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 *Excluding Conventional HydropowerSource: EIA
  • 16. Total Solar PV Capacity, Top Ten Countries, 2010 20000 18000 16000 14000 Megawatts 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0Source: REN21 2011
  • 17. Map credit: NREL
  • 18. Renewable Electricity in Germany 1990 - 2007Source: BMU 2009.
  • 19. What is needed?Learning from best practices
  • 20. Robust goals and principles A vision that is loud, long and legal Policy-making principles: stakeholder participation, transparency Policy principles: predictability, monitoring (measurement, reporting, verification), reward and sanctions, flexibility Policy mainstreaming
  • 21. From goals to action: Theimportance of energy roadmaps Renewable energies assessment Financing Energy Options Efficiency Grid Policy Integration Assessment and technical assessment Socio- Economic Analysis
  • 22. Policies that are working Feed-in Tariffs Emission trading Carbon Taxes Renewable Portfolio Standards Production and Investment Tax Credits
  • 23. Administrative and financial support “Ventanilla Unica” Hydro-carbon and green funds  Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund  Amazon Fund  China Energy Conservation Investment Corporation (renamed CECEP) Incentivize the capital costs for community-based projects
  • 24. The importance of public action & finance Market barriers Barriers for private investors and Commercialization barriers commercial financiers High transaction costs Lack of sector know-how and willingness to invest in RE Lack of information Lack of financial instruments: Lack of domestic financing Lack of risk mitigation instrumentsPrice distortion from existing subsidies and unequal tax burdens Less experienced developers Lack of adequate risk compensation Low level of own funds Lack of long-term financing Lack of credit records
  • 25. Support activities that unlock commercial financing: Capacities for financiers Technical capacities Capacities for project developers
  • 26. Phasing Out Fossil Fuels  Global fossil fuel consumption subsidies  In 2009: $558 billion  Renewable energy and biofuel subsidies together: $47 bn in 2007  Global fossil fuel production subsidies: add $100 bnSource: Vital Signs, Worldwatch Institute: “Value of Fossil Fuel Subsidies Declines; National Bans Emerging”
  • 27. The situation in Jamaica
  • 28. Electricity generation in Jamaica by source, 2011 2% 1% JPSCo Steam and Slow Speed Plants 3% IPP Jamaica Energy Partners 11% Diesel and heavy fuel oil combination JPSCo Gas Turbine Plants 37% 22% Diesel Jamaica Private power company (IPP) Wind 24% JPSCo Hydro Jamalco CogenerationBased on data from Jamaica Ministry of Energy and Mining
  • 29. Why Jamaica? A sustainable energy system that is in the national interest  Social, economic, environmental  Stable and secure 2009 electricity gen: >4,100 Gwh | 2028: 10,000 Almost entirely petroleum-based <5% electricity gen capacity from RE sources, despite enormous potential >12% of GDP spent on fossil fuel imports
  • 30. Recent Worldwatch energy reports include: 2011 REN-21 Renewables Global Status Report  download at www.ren21.net Renewable Revolution: Low-Carbon Energy by 2030Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in China: Current Status and Prospects for 2020 Low-Carbon Energy: A Road Map  download at www.worldwatch.org