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Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
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Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3

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The United Nations projects that world population will rise from just over 7 billion in 2012 to nearly 9.6 billion by 2050. This paper examines the nature of the population challenge globally, the …

The United Nations projects that world population will rise from just over 7 billion in 2012 to nearly 9.6 billion by 2050. This paper examines the nature of the population challenge globally, the effect of population growth on food demand in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the potential benefits -- in terms of food security, economic growth, and environment -- of reducing fertility levels more quickly than currently projected. This paper then explores promising, non-coercive approaches for reducing fertility rates.

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    • 1. December 9, 2013 Richard Waite, Associate, Food, Forests and Water Program Photo Source: EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection CREATING A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE: ACHIEVING REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY
    • 2. • The food challenge and menu of solutions • Population, food security, and environment: Focus on Africa • Effective approaches to reducing fertility rates Agenda
    • 3. HOW CAN THE WORLD FEED MORE THAN 9 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2050 IN A MANNER THAT ADVANCES DEVELOPMENT AND REDUCES PRESSURE ON THE ENVIRONMENT?
    • 4. Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO. The world needs to close the food gap
    • 5. Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at: <http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx> (accessed December 13, 2012). The world needs agriculture to support economic development
    • 6. The world needs to reduce agriculture’s environmental impact Share of global impact (percent in 2010) Source: WRI analysis based on IEA (2012); EIA (2012); EPA (2012); Houghton (2008); FAO (2011); FAO (2012); Foley et al. (2005). 70 70 100% = 3862 km3 H2O 24 37 100% = 49 Gt CO2e 100% = 13.3 bn ha WATER WITHDRAWAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS EARTH’S LANDMASS (EX-ANTARCTICA)
    • 7. A menu of solutions is required to sustainably close the food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO. * Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels Illustrative
    • 8. Consumption  Reduce food loss and waste  Shift to healthier diets  Achieve replacement level fertility  Reduce biofuel demand for food crops Production  Sustainably increase crop yields  Boost yields through attentive crop breeding  Improve soil and water management  Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands  Sustainably increase productivity of livestock  Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands  Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch  Increase productivity of aquaculture Menu for a sustainable food future (Preliminary)
    • 9. Menu for a sustainable food future Contributes to feeding everyone in 2050 while satisfying (or not negatively impacting) a number of criteria:  Poverty alleviation  Gender  Ecosystems  Climate  Water Photo source: Andrew So.
    • 10. The world’s population is projected to grow from about 7 billion people in 2012 to nearly 9.6 billion in 2050, with half of growth in sub-Saharan Africa Population (in billions) Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” = Rest of Africa. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total population by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.
    • 11. All regions except sub-Saharan Africa are projected to reach replacement level fertility by 2050 Total fertility rate Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total fertility by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario. Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” = Rest of Africa.
    • 12. 1.5 25% population undernourished tons/hectare - cereal yields Source: FAO, WFP and IFAD (2013), WRI analysis based on FAOSTAT (2012), WRI analysis based on Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012). Population, food security and environment in sub- Saharan Africa: a perfect storm? 25% cereals imported
    • 13. High population growth will create a large “food gap” in sub-Saharan Africa Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO. 2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food availability needed 660 2,380 * Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
    • 14. Achieving replacement level fertility could help close the global 2050 food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO. 2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food availability needed 9,500 16,000 * Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels Reduced demand (worldwide replacement level fertility) 10%
    • 15. Achieving replacement level fertility could help close sub-Saharan Africa’s 2050 food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO. 2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food availability needed 660 2,380 * Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels Reduced demand (worldwide replacement level fertility) 25%
    • 16. Achieving replacement level fertility can bring about a “demographic dividend” Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO. Singapore Hong Kong South Korea Taiwan
    • 17. Achieving replacement level fertility can avoid additional environmental impacts from agriculture
    • 18. Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Fertility rate, total (births per woman).” Data retrieved November 30, 2012, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database. Total fertility rates can decline rapidly Total fertility rate
    • 19. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest total fertility rates Total fertility rate (2005–2010) Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations.
    • 20. Photo Source: Travis Lupick. Approach 1: Educate girls
    • 21. Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest total share of women with at least lower secondary education Percent of women ages 20–39 with at least lower secondary education (2005–2010) Source: Harper, S. 2012. “People and the planet.” University of Oxford. Presentation at The Royal Society, London, April 2012.
    • 22. Photo Source: UK Department for International Development (DFID). Approach 2: Reduce child and infant mortality
    • 23. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest child mortality rates Mortality of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births (2005–2010) Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births).” Data retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.
    • 24. Photo Source: Travis Lupick. Approach 3: Increase access to reproductive health services, including family planning
    • 25. Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49).” Data retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database. Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest share of women using contraception Percent of women ages 15–49 using contraception (2005–2010)
    • 26. wri.org/wrr

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