Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3

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The United Nations projects that world population will rise from just over 7 billion in 2012 to nearly 9.6 billion by 2050. This paper examines the nature of the population challenge globally, the effect of population growth on food demand in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the potential benefits -- in terms of food security, economic growth, and environment -- of reducing fertility levels more quickly than currently projected. This paper then explores promising, non-coercive approaches for reducing fertility rates.

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  • Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3

    1. 1. December 9, 2013 Richard Waite, Associate, Food, Forests and Water Program Photo Source: EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection CREATING A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE: ACHIEVING REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY
    2. 2. • The food challenge and menu of solutions • Population, food security, and environment: Focus on Africa • Effective approaches to reducing fertility rates Agenda
    3. 3. HOW CAN THE WORLD FEED MORE THAN 9 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2050 IN A MANNER THAT ADVANCES DEVELOPMENT AND REDUCES PRESSURE ON THE ENVIRONMENT?
    4. 4. Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO. The world needs to close the food gap
    5. 5. Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at: <http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx> (accessed December 13, 2012). The world needs agriculture to support economic development
    6. 6. The world needs to reduce agriculture’s environmental impact Share of global impact (percent in 2010) Source: WRI analysis based on IEA (2012); EIA (2012); EPA (2012); Houghton (2008); FAO (2011); FAO (2012); Foley et al. (2005). 70 70 100% = 3862 km3 H2O 24 37 100% = 49 Gt CO2e 100% = 13.3 bn ha WATER WITHDRAWAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS EARTH’S LANDMASS (EX-ANTARCTICA)
    7. 7. A menu of solutions is required to sustainably close the food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO. * Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels Illustrative
    8. 8. Consumption  Reduce food loss and waste  Shift to healthier diets  Achieve replacement level fertility  Reduce biofuel demand for food crops Production  Sustainably increase crop yields  Boost yields through attentive crop breeding  Improve soil and water management  Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands  Sustainably increase productivity of livestock  Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands  Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch  Increase productivity of aquaculture Menu for a sustainable food future (Preliminary)
    9. 9. Menu for a sustainable food future Contributes to feeding everyone in 2050 while satisfying (or not negatively impacting) a number of criteria:  Poverty alleviation  Gender  Ecosystems  Climate  Water Photo source: Andrew So.
    10. 10. The world’s population is projected to grow from about 7 billion people in 2012 to nearly 9.6 billion in 2050, with half of growth in sub-Saharan Africa Population (in billions) Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” = Rest of Africa. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total population by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.
    11. 11. All regions except sub-Saharan Africa are projected to reach replacement level fertility by 2050 Total fertility rate Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total fertility by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario. Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” = Rest of Africa.
    12. 12. 1.5 25% population undernourished tons/hectare - cereal yields Source: FAO, WFP and IFAD (2013), WRI analysis based on FAOSTAT (2012), WRI analysis based on Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012). Population, food security and environment in sub- Saharan Africa: a perfect storm? 25% cereals imported
    13. 13. High population growth will create a large “food gap” in sub-Saharan Africa Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO. 2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food availability needed 660 2,380 * Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
    14. 14. Achieving replacement level fertility could help close the global 2050 food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO. 2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food availability needed 9,500 16,000 * Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels Reduced demand (worldwide replacement level fertility) 10%
    15. 15. Achieving replacement level fertility could help close sub-Saharan Africa’s 2050 food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO. 2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food availability needed 660 2,380 * Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels Reduced demand (worldwide replacement level fertility) 25%
    16. 16. Achieving replacement level fertility can bring about a “demographic dividend” Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO. Singapore Hong Kong South Korea Taiwan
    17. 17. Achieving replacement level fertility can avoid additional environmental impacts from agriculture
    18. 18. Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Fertility rate, total (births per woman).” Data retrieved November 30, 2012, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database. Total fertility rates can decline rapidly Total fertility rate
    19. 19. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest total fertility rates Total fertility rate (2005–2010) Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations.
    20. 20. Photo Source: Travis Lupick. Approach 1: Educate girls
    21. 21. Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest total share of women with at least lower secondary education Percent of women ages 20–39 with at least lower secondary education (2005–2010) Source: Harper, S. 2012. “People and the planet.” University of Oxford. Presentation at The Royal Society, London, April 2012.
    22. 22. Photo Source: UK Department for International Development (DFID). Approach 2: Reduce child and infant mortality
    23. 23. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest child mortality rates Mortality of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births (2005–2010) Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births).” Data retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.
    24. 24. Photo Source: Travis Lupick. Approach 3: Increase access to reproductive health services, including family planning
    25. 25. Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49).” Data retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database. Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest share of women using contraception Percent of women ages 15–49 using contraception (2005–2010)
    26. 26. wri.org/wrr

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