Stories to Watch 2014

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What stories will impact people and the planet in 2014? On 8 January 2014, Dr. Andrew Steer, WRI’s President & CEO, offered his perspectives on the major global developments in economics, business, natural resources and sustainability in the coming year. Find out more at http://www.wri.org/stw14

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Stories to Watch 2014

  1. 1. 1 FEATURING Andrew Steer President and CEO, WRI Image: Flickr/NA.dir
  2. 2. 345 consecutive months hotter than the 20th century average Source: IMF, 2013 Image: Flickr/lapstrake; Source: NOAA, 2013
  3. 3. RECESSION OVER 7% 6% 5% GDP GROWTH 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 2007 Source: IMF, 2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  4. 4. EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOWING BUT ROBUST 16% 14% GDP GROWTH 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2007 -2% Source: IMF, 2013 BRAZIL 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  5. 5. GLOBAL GDP – GETTING BACK ON TRACK Real GDP (2005 dollars) $100tr 2030 $50tr $30tr $15 trillion 1990 1970 Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service 2010
  6. 6. EXPLOSION OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS 5 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion 1990 Source: Reuters, OECD 2010 2010 2030
  7. 7. PRESSURE ON PLANET GROWING 2.5 billion Number of Vehicles 1.5 billion 750 million 1990 Image: Wikipedia, Source: Sperling and Gordon 2009 2010 2030
  8. 8. THE BIG QUESTION Can we have economic growth and tackle sustainability at the same time?
  9. 9. THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? 1 THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? Image: istockphoto
  10. 10. CITIES ARE BOOMING 274,000 people added to cities each day for next 30 years Image: Harvey Barrison; Source: UN-Habitat
  11. 11. CITIES ARE ECONOMIC DRIVERS 65% global GDP growth in major cities Image: istockphoto; Source: McKinsey and Company
  12. 12. BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES • 70% of GHG emissions come from cities • 10% GDP lost to congestion • 1.3 million people die prematurely due to urban air pollution Image: Flickr/PauloFehlauer; Sources: UN-Habitat, UNFCCC, WHO
  13. 13. THIS? Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon
  14. 14. OR THIS? Image: Flikr/Andreas
  15. 15. CITIES: PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? Per capita emissions of CO2 equivalent (2011) Source: Cai et al. 2013, Hoornweg et al. 2011, Olivier et al. 2012
  16. 16. CITIES IN THE LEAD Image: istockphoto
  17. 17. ALL EYES ON BRAZIL $6.5bn spent on the World Cup Image: Wikipedia; Source: EMBARQ
  18. 18. FIFA 2014 WORLD CUP 3m more visitors in 2014 Source: Fifa.com
  19. 19. ALL EYES ON BRAZIL 85% of Brazilians live in cities Image: istockphoto; Source: World Bank
  20. 20. TAKING IT TO THE STREETS 1m+ people on the streets June 2013 Image: Flickr/Semilla Luz; Source: The Guardian
  21. 21. CREATING BETTER CITIES: URBAN MOBILITY LAW 3,000 Image: Flickr/EMBARQ; Source: EMBARQ cities to create plans by 2015
  22. 22. BETTER CITIES: BUS RAPID TRANSIT 12m passengers per day Image: Flickr/Guilherme Mendes Thomaz; Source: BRTdata.org
  23. 23. WHAT TO WATCH 1. What signals does Brazil send on the future of its cities? 2. Which way will cities grow? Image: Flickr/DylanPassmore
  24. 24. THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? 2 1 RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? Image: Flickr/USAID Kenya
  25. 25. FORESTS UNDER PRESSURE 50 Image: WRI; Source: Hansen et al.2013, WRI soccer fields lost each minute
  26. 26. BUT, THERE’S HOPE… 2bn Source: Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration hectares with opportunities for forest landscape restoration
  27. 27. SOUTH KOREA: RESTORATION INTO FORESTS 1960 2000 Image: WRI
  28. 28. NIGER: RESTORATION INTO AGROFORESTRY Pre-1990s Image: WRI Today
  29. 29. THE BONN CHALLENGE 150m hectares under restoration by 2020 Image: Flickr/CIFOR; Source: WRI
  30. 30. BONN CHALLENGE: BENEFITS 150m RESTORED HECTARES • $84 billion in benefits annually • 47 gigatons of CO2e captured • 17% reduction in emissions gap Image: Flickr/CIFOR; ource: IUCN
  31. 31. A GROWING MOVEMENT BRAZIL - PACTO COSTA RICA EL SALVADOR (1m ha) (1m ha) (1m ha) Source: WRI RWANDA (2m ha) USA (15m ha)
  32. 32. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will more countries make commitments when they meet in June 2014? 2. Will a new global movement for restoration emerge? Image:
  33. 33. THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? 3 1 SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? Image: istockphoto
  34. 34. PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP 400% increase in palm oil production in 20 years Image: Flickr/carsten_tb; Source: FAO
  35. 35. PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP 50% of grocery store products contain palm oil Source: National Geographic 2013
  36. 36. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION Image: WRI
  37. 37. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION Image: WRI
  38. 38. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION Image: WRI
  39. 39. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION Image: WRI
  40. 40. A NEW APPROACH “There is a strong and rapidly growing demand for traceable, deforestation-free palm oil, and we intend to meet it as a core element of our growth strategy.” –Kuok Khoon Hong, CEO of Wilmar Source: Wilmar Press Release 2013
  41. 41. A NEW APPROACH
  42. 42. A NEW APPROACH 16 Percentage of Total Area 14 12 Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil Certified Production Area 10 8 6 4 2 0 2008 2009 Image: Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil, FAO 2010 2011 2012 2013
  43. 43. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  44. 44. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  45. 45. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  46. 46. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  47. 47. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  48. 48. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  49. 49. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH TESSO NILO NATIONAL PARK
  50. 50. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH Image: Jufri/ Greenpeace
  51. 51. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will better information expedite the shift to sustainable palm oil? 2. Will other industries follow? Image: istockphoto
  52. 52. THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? 4 CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? Image: istockphoto
  53. 53. 2013: A YEAR OF POLLUTION 189 days of high pollution in Beijing in 2013 Image: Flickr/Leniners
  54. 54. POPULAR UNREST 3m mentions of “PM 2.5” on SINA WEIBO, Jan 2013 Image: Flickr/Robert Moposang; Source: The Guardian
  55. 55. A DRIVER OF POLLUTION 50% Image: WRI; source: EIA 2013 global coal consumed by China
  56. 56. CHINA’S PROPOSED POWER PLANTS 363 COAL PLANTS PROPOSED Source: WRI
  57. 57. WATER-ENERGY NEXUS 51% ARE IN AREAS OF HIGH WATER STRESS Source: WRI
  58. 58. CLIMATE CHANGE: A “SERIOUS THREAT” “Climate change is already a serious threat to food, water, ecological and energy security, and to people’s lives and property.” –National Development and Reform Commission, Dec. 9, 2013
  59. 59. TAKING ACTION: AIR $277bn budgeted for anti-pollution measures in the next 5 years Image: WRI; Source: China Daily
  60. 60. TAKING ACTION: CUTTING COAL Ban on New Coal Plants in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou Image: Flickr/Jonathan Kos-Read; source: ChinaFAQs
  61. 61. TAKING ACTION: ENFORCEMENT 8 cities in China fined by provincial government for air pollution Image: Flickr/Bert Van Djik; Source: Xinhua
  62. 62. TAKING ACTION: MORE RENEWABLES 50% of all new power capacity added in Jan-Oct Image: Flickr/Yuek Hahn ; Source: National Energy Administration (China)
  63. 63. HOW WILL PILOTS PERFORM? 7 emissions trading systems running in 2014 Source: ChinaFAQs
  64. 64. WHAT TO WATCH 1. A tipping point on air pollution? 2. More progress to rein in coal? 3. Will new renewables outpace fossil fuels? Image: WRI
  65. 65. THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? 5 1 U.S. POWER: SETTING A NEW STANDARD? Image: WRI CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? U.S. POWER: SETTING A NEW STANDARD?
  66. 66. AN APPROACHING DEADLINE New Guidelines Issued by EPA by June 1, 2014 Image: Flickr/Mike_tn; Source: EPA
  67. 67. POWER PLANTS ACCOUNT FOR 1/3 OF U.S. EMISSIONS 26% Coal-Fired Power Plants 6% Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants 1% Other Power Plants Source: EPA
  68. 68. U.S. EMISSIONS TARGET 17% Image: Flickr/The White House; Source: White House emissions reduction by 2020
  69. 69. WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN NEW RULE 31% reduction in GHG emissions below 2011 by 2020 Image: Flickr/Alex Lang; Source: WRI 74% reduction in GHG emissions below 2011 by 2035
  70. 70. COAL UNDER PRESSURE 98 Image: Flickr/Jonathan Haeber; Source: EIA plants retired in last two years
  71. 71. “RIPE FOR RETIREMENT” 45% Image: istockphoto; Source: UCS of U.S. coal plants announced or ripe for retirement (UCS)
  72. 72. 2014: IS CCS FINALLY HERE? Kemper Project Image: Wikipedia
  73. 73. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will EPA rules be ambitious? 2. Will a US medium-term strategy emerge? Image: Flickr/wigwam
  74. 74. THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? 6 1 UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE? Image: Wikimedia CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? U.S. POWER: SETTING A NEW STANDARD? UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?
  75. 75. NEARLY 100 COUNTRIES WITH GHG GOALS Source: UNFCCC
  76. 76. IMPACTS MOUNTING Image: Flickr/Rembcc
  77. 77. UNBURNABLE CARBON 3000 Coal 65% 2500 Two thirds of reserves “unburnable” Gt CO2 2000 1500 1000 Oil 22% 500 Gas 13% 0 Budget Source: Rystad Energy, Carbon Tracker Proven reserves
  78. 78. SUBSIDIZING THE WRONG THING $2tn Image: Flickr/Berardo62; Source: IMF annual energy subsidies (IMF)
  79. 79. IPCC REPORTS – MARCH & APRIL Image: Flickr/Gavin Golden
  80. 80. “RISKY BUSINESS” – JUNE Images: Wikipedia
  81. 81. NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY – SEPTEMBER Image: WRI
  82. 82. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT – SEPTEMBER Image: Flickr/UNClimateChange
  83. 83. PATHWAY TO PARIS Image: Wikimedia
  84. 84. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will growing evidence spur public pressure? 2. How will heads of state respond? Image: Flickr/Philip Roeland
  85. 85. THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? U.S. POWER: SETTING A NEW STANDARD? 1 7 A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE? Image: istockphoto UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE? A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?
  86. 86. A MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY • 3 of the 4 largest democracies to elect heads of government • 25% of world’s population • 40% of the global poor Image: istockphoto
  87. 87. ELECTIONS: BRAZIL 136m voters in Brazil Image: Flickr/Dilma Rousseff; Source: IDEA
  88. 88. ELECTIONS: INDIA 780m voters in India Image: Flickr/London Summit; Source: IDEA
  89. 89. ELECTIONS: INDONESIA 160m voters in Indonesia Image: Flickr/World Economic Forum; Source: IDEA
  90. 90. ELECTIONS: EUROPEAN UNION Image: Flickr.EEAS
  91. 91. U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS Image: istockphoto
  92. 92. ELECTIONS MATTER Image: Wikipedia
  93. 93. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Which way will these elections go? 2. What will the results tell us about economic development and sustainability? Image: Flickr/Al_Jazeera_English
  94. 94. 1 THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? 2 RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? 3 SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? 4 CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? 5 U.S. POWER: SETTING A NEW STANDARD? 6 UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE? 7 A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?

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