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能源与生态文明
ENERGY FOR AN
ECOLOGICAL CIVILIZATION
主讲人
Manish Bapna
执行副总裁 兼 常务董事
世界资源研究所
Executive Vice President, WRI
COAL
煤炭
Photo Credit: Flickr/Peter Garnum
(WRI, 2012)
COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
煤炭 | 计划新增煤电产能
(WRI, 2012)
INDIA
印度
COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
煤炭 | 计划新增煤电产能
(WRI, 2012)
INDIA
印度
CHINA
中国
COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
煤炭 | 计划新增煤电产能
COAL | AIR QUALITY IMPACTS
煤炭 | 空气质量影响
COAL | COAL DEVELOPMENT AND WATER RISK
煤炭 | 煤炭发展与水资源危机
COAL | A NEW U.S. APPROACH?
煤炭 | 一个新的美国减排思路?
“所以今天,为了我们的孩子和所有美国人的健康和安全着想,我要求
美国国家环境保护局为新建的和现有的电厂制定完整的排放标准,结
束发电厂不受限制的温室气体排...
NATURAL GAS
天然气
Photo Credit: Flickr/Johnny Shaw
NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS RESERVES
天然气 | 页岩气全球储量
(EIA, 2013
NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD
PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES
天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力
(EIA, 2009-2012)
0
2
4
6
8
10
...
(EIA, 2009-2012)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AverageHenryHubspotprice($)
2009
2010
NATURAL G...
(EIA, 2009-2012)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AverageHenryHubspotprice($)
2009
2010
2011
NATU...
(EIA, 2009-2012)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AverageHenryHubspotprice($)
2009
2010
2011
2012...
SHALE | SHALE DEPOSITS AND WATER RISK
页岩 | 页岩储藏与水资源危机
SHALE | A „Transition‟ Fuel for U.S.
页岩气 | 一种美国的“过渡性”能源
Photo Credit: Flickr/Oly Pentax
“......这是一种过渡燃料,可以在更少的碳排放情况
下推动我们的...
RENEWABLES
可再生能源 Photo Credit: Flickr/IFC Infrastructure
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Billionsofdollars
Quarterly
RENEWABLES | WHERE NEXT...
RENEWABLE ENERGY | 2012 GLOBAL INVESTMENT
可再生能源 | 2012年全球投资情况
China
中国 24%
Germany
德国 8%
India
印度 3%
United States
美国 13%
...
RENEWABLE ENERGY | INSTALLED WIND CAPACITY
可再生能源 | 风电装机容量
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
TotalInstalledWindCapacity(GW)
China
G...
RENEWABLE ENERGY | INSTALLED SOLAR CAPACITY
可再生能源 | 太阳能发电装机容量
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
TotalInstalledSolarPVCapacity(GW)
Chin...
BMU - E I 1
Development of renewable energy sources in Germany in 2012 22
RENEWABLE ENERGY | US TO DOUBLE DOWN
可再生能源 | 翻番
“这意味着工作机会 – 因制造风力涡轮机而创造的工作机会,现在能为近
1500万个家庭提供电力。
我今天宣布的计划将帮助我们再次翻番我们的风电和太阳...
CHINA‟S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
IS MASSIVELY COSTLY
0
2
4
6
8
10
Costofenvironmentaldegradationas
%ofGDPequivalent
9.2% ...
谢谢
THANK YOU
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Energy for an Ecological Civilization

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Presentation by Manish Bapna, Executive Vice President and Managing Director, World Resources Institute at the June 29, 2013 Energy Sub-forum on “New Energy, New Era” as part of the “Third Global Think Tank Summit” hosted by by Energy Observer magazine in Beijing, China.

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  • About Manish Bapna. About WRIWhat I would like to talk about are the environmental dimensions of the energy choices we make.Focus on coal, natural gas and renewable energy and in particular some of the air and water pollution impacts.The timing of this conference is also interesting as the US President Obama made a major speech earlier this week about energy and climate. I will talk a bit about what he said as well.My main objective is to signal that we must find ways to reduce the environmental impact of energy. And I believe there is considerable potential for collaboration between countries to help make this happen.
  • I would like to start by sharing the results of a report we prepared that attempts to estimate new coal power capacity that is planned to be built. The circles represent how much coal power will be built in each country.
  • When you add India
  • When you add ChinaIndia and China account for 76% of new coal capacity anticipatedChina coal:70% of total energy mix in China;80% of electricity generation in ChinaChina’s coal consumption remains significant, but is expected to plateau by 2020 and renewable energy deployment continues to ramp up (IEA WEO 2012)
  • This is a map of fine aerosol pollution (PM2.5) over China – data gathered over two years from 2008 – 2010 by NASA. It shows that most areas had PM 2.5 levels that exceeded the World Health Organizations recommended limit of less than 10 micrograms per cubit meter (i.e. everything that’s in color on this map).Sources of PM2.5 include coal fired power plants (and other fuel combustion – including driving). For comparison, the New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles metro areas have PM2.5 levels that average between 10 and 20 micrograms per cubic meter.Ambient Air pollution is the fourth leading cause of death in China (Global Burden of Disease study 2010: http://viz.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/gbd-compare/)Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=77495
  • Can see here potential risks for water quality associated with coal production: water use in the coal sector (mining, processing, and cooling power plants) accounts for the largest industrial water use in China, and coal resources are located where water is also scarce.Water use in China (for reference – from AEO 2012 citing FAO 2012)65% irrigation23% industry (of which coal is largest)12% municipalBig challenge is that more water will be needed for irrigation (food) and municipal use (urbanization). Can coal development continue to rely on ever increasing amounts of water?
  • WHAT WRI IS DOING IN THIS AREA "So today, for the sake of our children, and the health and safety of all Americans, I’m directing the Environmental Protection Agency to put an end to the limitless dumping of carbon pollution from our power plants, and complete new pollution standards for both new and existing power plants."What this means:New rulemaking underway due to be completed in 2015
  • Latest Data on technically recoverable shale gas resources ranks the following:1. China (1,115 trillion cubic ft)2. Argentina (802)3. Algeria (707)4. US (665 by EIA estimate, ARI’s conflicting estimate puts US just above China at 1,161)5. Canada (573)See summary of EIA: http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/CHINAAlthough there is uncertainty in the extent of China’s shale gas resource estimates, they are significant (perhaps greater than US shale gas reserves). Availability of water for hydraulic fracturing is likely to be a key factor influencing and perhaps constraining shale gas development in China.By 2015, China aims to have natural gas contributing 8.3% of total primary energy - 990 shale gas wells drilled, producing 6.5 billion cubic meters (0.23 Tcf) of shale-sourced gas. China also imports LNG. According to a recent CSIS report, 4 LNG import terminals are operating today, 4 more are under construction, and many more are proposed.Csis.org/files/publication/120824_Nakano_ProspectsShaleGas_web.pdf.http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdf, p. 4
  • www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/excel/figure69_data.xls
  • www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/excel/figure69_data.xls
  • www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/excel/figure69_data.xls
  • Profound and radical shift in the fuel mix for electricity generation.Electricity generation from coal declined from 50% in 2005 to about 40% today. from natural gas increased from 19% in 2005 to about 30% today.www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/excel/figure69_data.xls
  • Note that some actions already taken by decisionmakers will help to mitigate impacts from scarcity: For example, open loop cooling systems for power plants (the most water intensive) are no longer allowed in new coal or natural-gas fired power plants
  • WHAT WRI IS DOING ON SHALE GAS Shift from coal to shale gas NOT renewables to shale gas in short termHowever GHG emissions too high to address climate. We also need to shift from shale gas in the medium term to renewables.From the speech “"We should strengthen our position as the top natural gas producer because, in the medium term at least, it not only can provide safe, cheap power, but it can also help reduce our carbon emissions....  it’s the transition fuel that can power our economy with less carbon pollution even as our businesses work to develop and then deploy more of the technology required for the even cleaner energy economy of the future."
  • Decline in 2012 but in part because prices where considerably lower for solar PV (and because of policy instability)However, investment in renewables was BNEF_global_trends_in_clean_energy_investment_q3_2012_fact_pack.pdf, p. 3http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/clean-energy-investment-fell-11-as-governments-cut-subsidies.html
  • Total global investment was $269 billion, with China attracting nearly a quarter of that. This represents a 20 percent increase over 2011. Source: http://www.pewenvironment.org/uploadedFiles/PEG/Publications/Report/FINAL_forweb_WhoIsWinningTheCleanEnergyRace-REPORT-2012.pdf
  • Wind Power: China ranks 1st in the world in installed wind power capacity, with about 75 GW. China is also the world’s fastest-growing installer of wind, and it aims to have 100 GW of wind installed by 2015.Source: http://www.pewenvironment.org/uploadedFiles/PEG/Publications/Report/FINAL_forweb_WhoIsWinningTheCleanEnergyRace-REPORT-2012.pdf
  • For the first time in 2012, solar investment in China outpaced wind, and the country has a target to have installed 21 GW by 2015 – more than double what is currently installed.Source: http://www.pewenvironment.org/uploadedFiles/PEG/Publications/Report/FINAL_forweb_WhoIsWinningTheCleanEnergyRace-REPORT-2012.pdf
  • “Over the past four years, we’ve doubled the electricity that we generate from zero-carbon wind and solar power. And that means jobs – jobs manufacturing the wind turbines that now generate enough electricity to power nearly 15 million homes.The plan I’m announcing today will help us double again our energy from wind and sun” Today, I’m directing the Interior Department to green light enough private, renewable energy capacity on public lands to power more than 6 million homes by 2020. (Applause.)The Department of Defense – the biggest energy consumer in America – will install 3 gigawatts of renewable power on its bases, generating about the same amount of electricity each year as you’d get from burning 3 million tons of coal. And because billions of your tax dollars continue to still subsidize some of the most profitable corporations in the history of the world, my budget once again calls for Congress to end the tax breaks for big oil companies, and invest in the clean-energy companies that will fuel our future. (Applause.)
  • http://www.eia.gov/coal/review/coal_consumption.cfmandhttp://www.eia.gov/coal/review/coal_exports_imports.cfm
  • TRANSITION TO AN ECOLOGICAL CIVILIZATIONS MEANS A MAJOR TRANSFORMATION IN ENERGYBOTH CHINA AND THE US NEEDS TO SHOW LEADERSHIP ON THIS ISSUE IF IT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE WORLDINCREASING THIS TRANSFORMATION IS NOT ABOUT COSTS AND RISKS BUT ABOUT OPPORTUNITY, BENEFITS AND PROFIT. ITS HAPPENING FASTER THAN MOST REALIZE. "It’s not an either/or; it’s a both/and. We’ve got to look after our children; we have to look after our future; and we have to grow the economy and create jobs. We can do all of that as long as we don’t fear the future; instead we seize it.“- President Obama, June 25, 2013
  • Transcript of "Energy for an Ecological Civilization"

    1. 1. 能源与生态文明 ENERGY FOR AN ECOLOGICAL CIVILIZATION 主讲人 Manish Bapna 执行副总裁 兼 常务董事 世界资源研究所 Executive Vice President, WRI
    2. 2. COAL 煤炭 Photo Credit: Flickr/Peter Garnum
    3. 3. (WRI, 2012) COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY 煤炭 | 计划新增煤电产能
    4. 4. (WRI, 2012) INDIA 印度 COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY 煤炭 | 计划新增煤电产能
    5. 5. (WRI, 2012) INDIA 印度 CHINA 中国 COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY 煤炭 | 计划新增煤电产能
    6. 6. COAL | AIR QUALITY IMPACTS 煤炭 | 空气质量影响
    7. 7. COAL | COAL DEVELOPMENT AND WATER RISK 煤炭 | 煤炭发展与水资源危机
    8. 8. COAL | A NEW U.S. APPROACH? 煤炭 | 一个新的美国减排思路? “所以今天,为了我们的孩子和所有美国人的健康和安全着想,我要求 美国国家环境保护局为新建的和现有的电厂制定完整的排放标准,结 束发电厂不受限制的温室气体排放现状。” - 美国总统奥巴马 “So today, for the sake of our children, and the health and safety of all Americans, I‟m directing the Environmental Protection Agency to put an end to the limitless dumping of carbon pollution from our power plants, and complete new pollution standards for both new and existing power plants.” - US President Barack Obama
    9. 9. NATURAL GAS 天然气 Photo Credit: Flickr/Johnny Shaw
    10. 10. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS RESERVES 天然气 | 页岩气全球储量 (EIA, 2013
    11. 11. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力 (EIA, 2009-2012) 0 2 4 6 8 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AverageHenryHubspotprice($) 2009
    12. 12. (EIA, 2009-2012) 0 2 4 6 8 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AverageHenryHubspotprice($) 2009 2010 NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力
    13. 13. (EIA, 2009-2012) 0 2 4 6 8 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AverageHenryHubspotprice($) 2009 2010 2011 NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力
    14. 14. (EIA, 2009-2012) 0 2 4 6 8 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AverageHenryHubspotprice($) 2009 2010 2011 2012 NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力
    15. 15. SHALE | SHALE DEPOSITS AND WATER RISK 页岩 | 页岩储藏与水资源危机
    16. 16. SHALE | A „Transition‟ Fuel for U.S. 页岩气 | 一种美国的“过渡性”能源 Photo Credit: Flickr/Oly Pentax “......这是一种过渡燃料,可以在更少的碳排放情况 下推动我们的经济,发展和部署未来更清洁的能源 经济所需的更多技术。” - 美国总统奥巴马 “…It‟s the transition fuel that can power our economy with less carbon pollution even as our businesses work to develop and then deploy more of the technology required for the even cleaner energy economy of the future.” - US President Barack Obama
    17. 17. RENEWABLES 可再生能源 Photo Credit: Flickr/IFC Infrastructure
    18. 18. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Billionsofdollars Quarterly RENEWABLES | WHERE NEXT FOR INVESTMENT? (Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2013) N.B. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 $268.7BN (2012)
    19. 19. RENEWABLE ENERGY | 2012 GLOBAL INVESTMENT 可再生能源 | 2012年全球投资情况 China 中国 24% Germany 德国 8% India 印度 3% United States 美国 13% Other 其他 51% Source: BNEF Total Invested: $269 Billion 总投资额:2690亿美元
    20. 20. RENEWABLE ENERGY | INSTALLED WIND CAPACITY 可再生能源 | 风电装机容量 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 TotalInstalledWindCapacity(GW) China Germany India United States Source: BP
    21. 21. RENEWABLE ENERGY | INSTALLED SOLAR CAPACITY 可再生能源 | 太阳能发电装机容量 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 TotalInstalledSolarPVCapacity(GW) China Germany India United States neck and neck Source: BP, (purple represents uncertainty in the BP, BNEF and REN21 numbers)
    22. 22. BMU - E I 1 Development of renewable energy sources in Germany in 2012 22
    23. 23. RENEWABLE ENERGY | US TO DOUBLE DOWN 可再生能源 | 翻番 “这意味着工作机会 – 因制造风力涡轮机而创造的工作机会,现在能为近 1500万个家庭提供电力。 我今天宣布的计划将帮助我们再次翻番我们的风电和太阳能发电。” - 美国总统奥巴马 “And that means jobs – jobs manufacturing the wind turbines that now generate enough electricity to power nearly 15 million homes. The plan I‟m announcing today will help us double again our energy from wind and sun” -US President Barack Obama
    24. 24. CHINA‟S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IS MASSIVELY COSTLY 0 2 4 6 8 10 Costofenvironmentaldegradationas %ofGDPequivalent 9.2% OF GDP (World Bank reports, 2005-2012)
    25. 25. 谢谢 THANK YOU
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