Environmental Stories to Watch: 2010   Jonathan Lash World Resources Institute January 7, 2010 Global Vision for a Sustain...
Tracking the Illegal Cut Rep. John F. Lacey   Lacey Act Enforcement
 
Chesapeake legislation? Matt Petros NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
Average dollars per pound of annual nitrogen load reduction Sources: Agricultural BMPs: U.S. Environmental Protection Agen...
2 Copenhagen Meetings by Kuznetsov_Sergey
2 years ago in Bali <ul><li>“ Developed countries want developing countries to have a commitment. I don’t think it’s possi...
Unexpected Commitments: <ul><li>Brazil –  36-39% below BAU, 15-18% below 2005 by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Mexico –  50% redu...
Failed Negotiations Mads Nissen/EPA
Copenhagen Outcome TARGET: COMMITMENTS: VERIFICATION: REDD, ADAPTATION, TECHNOLOGY: FUNDING: LEGAL ACCORD: <2°, NO-50% All...
The Old G8 Telegraph.co.uk
The New C5 http://www.chinadaily.com.cn Photo: Bloomberg Photo: Rajeev Bhatt World Economic Forum Center for American Prog...
China’s Carbon Intensity Commitment <ul><li>12 th  5 year plan </li></ul><ul><li>Green power buy </li></ul><ul><li>Clunker...
The World’s Forests Remaining and Lost
Original forest cover Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009 The World’s Forests Remainin...
Current forest cover Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009 The World’s Forests Remaining...
Current forest cover Formerly forest, now croplands Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 200...
Current forest cover Formerly forest, now croplands Formerly forest, now pasture Source: World Resources Institute / South...
Formerly forest, now croplands Formerly forest, now pasture Intact Forest Landscapes Source: World Resources Institute / S...
Formerly forest, now croplands Formerly forest, now pasture Intact Forest Landscapes Tropical deforestation 2000-2005 Sour...
Forest landscape restoration potential (million hectares, excluding the boreal) Higher probability Lower probability Broad...
The Trio LCV Score: 90% LCV Score: 87% LCV Score: 10% *Lifetime Score from League of Conservation Voters’  National Enviro...
“ Gang of 16” Democrats Carl Levin & Debbie Stabenow (MI) Robert Byrd & John D. Rockefeller IV (WV) Blanche Lincoln & Mark...
“ Gang of 16” Democrats Carl Levin & Debbie Stabenow (MI) Robert Byrd & John D. Rockefeller IV (WV) Blanche Lincoln & Mark...
States with Unemployment levels higher than the National mean (10.2%) Data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Regional and S...
EPA Actions Underway and Likely Actions Done or Underway Planned or Likely in 2010 Mobile Sources § 202 Endangerment Findi...
State Actions Underway and Likely <ul><li>Northeast States - Low Carbon Fuel Standard </li></ul><ul><li>California - stric...
Bretton Woods Mount Washington Resort Old Arrangements Are Changing
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Environmental Stories To Watch 2010

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Jonathan Lash highlights key issues that are expected to be important in the coming months.

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  • From Ruth via Rich. An EIA photo of GIS tracking of illegal logging.  
  • Forests once covered almost twice the area that they do today. Large expanses have been converted or degraded to produce food, timber, and energy. More than three quarters of the world’s forests have been cleared, fragmented, or degraded. The loss is continuing at a rapid rate. Just one fifth of the world’s original forest cover remains in large tracts of relatively undisturbed forest. Yesterday’s loss, however, can be tomorrow’s gain. Forests can recover. Some of the lost forests can be restored. And as forest landscapes recover, climate and other benefits will grow with the trees. Not all converted or degraded forests are suitable for restoration. Some of the world’s most productive agricultural lands are former forests, and significant areas that were once covered by trees have been converted to urban and industrial uses. But vast areas of marginally productive lands and pastures could grow trees once more and be part of multifunctional forest landscapes. The map is based on published research and presents a globally consistent picture, based on the same definitions and data collection methods for the entire world. The world’s original forest cover is the maximum extent of forests after the latest glaciation (which took place some 8,000 years ago), based on an assessment of climate and soils. Current forest cover is the area where forests grow today, based on an analysis of satellite images. (Continuous Vegetation Fields dataset of University of Maryland/South Dakota State University) The extent of historical deforestation is the difference between original and current forest cover. This former forest landscape is mainly used either as cropland or as pasture land . (Global Land Cover Map from the European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2003). The extent of recent tropical deforestation is shown based on an analysis of satellite images. (Hansen, et al. , 2008). An intact forest landscape is a part of today’s forest that remains a large, unbroken expanse of natural ecosystems without signs of significant human activity (at least 50,000 hectares is size). Intact forest landscapes were mapped using Landsat satellite imagery representing the year 2000. (Potapov, et al. , 2008).
  • Forests once covered almost twice the area that they do today. Large expanses have been converted or degraded to produce food, timber, and energy. More than three quarters of the world’s forests have been cleared, fragmented, or degraded. The loss is continuing at a rapid rate. Just one fifth of the world’s original forest cover remains in large tracts of relatively undisturbed forest. Yesterday’s loss, however, can be tomorrow’s gain. Forests can recover. Some of the lost forests can be restored. And as forest landscapes recover, climate and other benefits will grow with the trees. Not all converted or degraded forests are suitable for restoration. Some of the world’s most productive agricultural lands are former forests, and significant areas that were once covered by trees have been converted to urban and industrial uses. But vast areas of marginally productive lands and pastures could grow trees once more and be part of multifunctional forest landscapes. The map is based on published research and presents a globally consistent picture, based on the same definitions and data collection methods for the entire world. The world’s original forest cover is the maximum extent of forests after the latest glaciation (which took place some 8,000 years ago), based on an assessment of climate and soils. Current forest cover is the area where forests grow today, based on an analysis of satellite images. (Continuous Vegetation Fields dataset of University of Maryland/South Dakota State University) The extent of historical deforestation is the difference between original and current forest cover. This former forest landscape is mainly used either as cropland or as pasture land . (Global Land Cover Map from the European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2003). The extent of recent tropical deforestation is shown based on an analysis of satellite images. (Hansen, et al. , 2008). An intact forest landscape is a part of today’s forest that remains a large, unbroken expanse of natural ecosystems without signs of significant human activity (at least 50,000 hectares is size). Intact forest landscapes were mapped using Landsat satellite imagery representing the year 2000. (Potapov, et al. , 2008).
  • Forests once covered almost twice the area that they do today. Large expanses have been converted or degraded to produce food, timber, and energy. More than three quarters of the world’s forests have been cleared, fragmented, or degraded. The loss is continuing at a rapid rate. Just one fifth of the world’s original forest cover remains in large tracts of relatively undisturbed forest. Yesterday’s loss, however, can be tomorrow’s gain. Forests can recover. Some of the lost forests can be restored. And as forest landscapes recover, climate and other benefits will grow with the trees. Not all converted or degraded forests are suitable for restoration. Some of the world’s most productive agricultural lands are former forests, and significant areas that were once covered by trees have been converted to urban and industrial uses. But vast areas of marginally productive lands and pastures could grow trees once more and be part of multifunctional forest landscapes. The map is based on published research and presents a globally consistent picture, based on the same definitions and data collection methods for the entire world. The world’s original forest cover is the maximum extent of forests after the latest glaciation (which took place some 8,000 years ago), based on an assessment of climate and soils. Current forest cover is the area where forests grow today, based on an analysis of satellite images. (Continuous Vegetation Fields dataset of University of Maryland/South Dakota State University) The extent of historical deforestation is the difference between original and current forest cover. This former forest landscape is mainly used either as cropland or as pasture land . (Global Land Cover Map from the European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2003). The extent of recent tropical deforestation is shown based on an analysis of satellite images. (Hansen, et al. , 2008). An intact forest landscape is a part of today’s forest that remains a large, unbroken expanse of natural ecosystems without signs of significant human activity (at least 50,000 hectares is size). Intact forest landscapes were mapped using Landsat satellite imagery representing the year 2000. (Potapov, et al. , 2008).
  • Forests once covered almost twice the area that they do today. Large expanses have been converted or degraded to produce food, timber, and energy. More than three quarters of the world’s forests have been cleared, fragmented, or degraded. The loss is continuing at a rapid rate. Just one fifth of the world’s original forest cover remains in large tracts of relatively undisturbed forest. Yesterday’s loss, however, can be tomorrow’s gain. Forests can recover. Some of the lost forests can be restored. And as forest landscapes recover, climate and other benefits will grow with the trees. Not all converted or degraded forests are suitable for restoration. Some of the world’s most productive agricultural lands are former forests, and significant areas that were once covered by trees have been converted to urban and industrial uses. But vast areas of marginally productive lands and pastures could grow trees once more and be part of multifunctional forest landscapes. The map is based on published research and presents a globally consistent picture, based on the same definitions and data collection methods for the entire world. The world’s original forest cover is the maximum extent of forests after the latest glaciation (which took place some 8,000 years ago), based on an assessment of climate and soils. Current forest cover is the area where forests grow today, based on an analysis of satellite images. (Continuous Vegetation Fields dataset of University of Maryland/South Dakota State University) The extent of historical deforestation is the difference between original and current forest cover. This former forest landscape is mainly used either as cropland or as pasture land . (Global Land Cover Map from the European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2003). The extent of recent tropical deforestation is shown based on an analysis of satellite images. (Hansen, et al. , 2008). An intact forest landscape is a part of today’s forest that remains a large, unbroken expanse of natural ecosystems without signs of significant human activity (at least 50,000 hectares is size). Intact forest landscapes were mapped using Landsat satellite imagery representing the year 2000. (Potapov, et al. , 2008).
  • Forests once covered almost twice the area that they do today. Large expanses have been converted or degraded to produce food, timber, and energy. More than three quarters of the world’s forests have been cleared, fragmented, or degraded. The loss is continuing at a rapid rate. Just one fifth of the world’s original forest cover remains in large tracts of relatively undisturbed forest. Yesterday’s loss, however, can be tomorrow’s gain. Forests can recover. Some of the lost forests can be restored. And as forest landscapes recover, climate and other benefits will grow with the trees. Not all converted or degraded forests are suitable for restoration. Some of the world’s most productive agricultural lands are former forests, and significant areas that were once covered by trees have been converted to urban and industrial uses. But vast areas of marginally productive lands and pastures could grow trees once more and be part of multifunctional forest landscapes. The map is based on published research and presents a globally consistent picture, based on the same definitions and data collection methods for the entire world. The world’s original forest cover is the maximum extent of forests after the latest glaciation (which took place some 8,000 years ago), based on an assessment of climate and soils. Current forest cover is the area where forests grow today, based on an analysis of satellite images. (Continuous Vegetation Fields dataset of University of Maryland/South Dakota State University) The extent of historical deforestation is the difference between original and current forest cover. This former forest landscape is mainly used either as cropland or as pasture land . (Global Land Cover Map from the European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2003). The extent of recent tropical deforestation is shown based on an analysis of satellite images. (Hansen, et al. , 2008). An intact forest landscape is a part of today’s forest that remains a large, unbroken expanse of natural ecosystems without signs of significant human activity (at least 50,000 hectares is size). Intact forest landscapes were mapped using Landsat satellite imagery representing the year 2000. (Potapov, et al. , 2008).
  • Forests once covered almost twice the area that they do today. Large expanses have been converted or degraded to produce food, timber, and energy. More than three quarters of the world’s forests have been cleared, fragmented, or degraded. The loss is continuing at a rapid rate. Just one fifth of the world’s original forest cover remains in large tracts of relatively undisturbed forest. Yesterday’s loss, however, can be tomorrow’s gain. Forests can recover. Some of the lost forests can be restored. And as forest landscapes recover, climate and other benefits will grow with the trees. Not all converted or degraded forests are suitable for restoration. Some of the world’s most productive agricultural lands are former forests, and significant areas that were once covered by trees have been converted to urban and industrial uses. But vast areas of marginally productive lands and pastures could grow trees once more and be part of multifunctional forest landscapes. The map is based on published research and presents a globally consistent picture, based on the same definitions and data collection methods for the entire world. The world’s original forest cover is the maximum extent of forests after the latest glaciation (which took place some 8,000 years ago), based on an assessment of climate and soils. Current forest cover is the area where forests grow today, based on an analysis of satellite images. (Continuous Vegetation Fields dataset of University of Maryland/South Dakota State University) The extent of historical deforestation is the difference between original and current forest cover. This former forest landscape is mainly used either as cropland or as pasture land . (Global Land Cover Map from the European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2003). The extent of recent tropical deforestation is shown based on an analysis of satellite images. (Hansen, et al. , 2008). An intact forest landscape is a part of today’s forest that remains a large, unbroken expanse of natural ecosystems without signs of significant human activity (at least 50,000 hectares is size). Intact forest landscapes were mapped using Landsat satellite imagery representing the year 2000. (Potapov, et al. , 2008).
  • Forests once covered almost twice the area that they do today. Large expanses have been converted or degraded to produce food, timber, and energy. More than three quarters of the world’s forests have been cleared, fragmented, or degraded. The loss is continuing at a rapid rate. Just one fifth of the world’s original forest cover remains in large tracts of relatively undisturbed forest. Yesterday’s loss, however, can be tomorrow’s gain. Forests can recover. Some of the lost forests can be restored. And as forest landscapes recover, climate and other benefits will grow with the trees. Not all converted or degraded forests are suitable for restoration. Some of the world’s most productive agricultural lands are former forests, and significant areas that were once covered by trees have been converted to urban and industrial uses. But vast areas of marginally productive lands and pastures could grow trees once more and be part of multifunctional forest landscapes. The map is based on published research and presents a globally consistent picture, based on the same definitions and data collection methods for the entire world. The world’s original forest cover is the maximum extent of forests after the latest glaciation (which took place some 8,000 years ago), based on an assessment of climate and soils. Current forest cover is the area where forests grow today, based on an analysis of satellite images. (Continuous Vegetation Fields dataset of University of Maryland/South Dakota State University) The extent of historical deforestation is the difference between original and current forest cover. This former forest landscape is mainly used either as cropland or as pasture land . (Global Land Cover Map from the European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2003). The extent of recent tropical deforestation is shown based on an analysis of satellite images. (Hansen, et al. , 2008). An intact forest landscape is a part of today’s forest that remains a large, unbroken expanse of natural ecosystems without signs of significant human activity (at least 50,000 hectares is size). Intact forest landscapes were mapped using Landsat satellite imagery representing the year 2000. (Potapov, et al. , 2008).
  • With Mark Warner substituted for Salazar.
  • With Mark Warner substituted for Salazar.
  • With Mark Warner substituted for Salazar.
  • CA standards: The standards will likely be adopted by the 15 or so other states that have adopted the California standards. (In fact, there is a strong legal theory that the other states must adopt any changes California adopts because there is a prohibition on creating a “third car”). Note the federal climate bills do nothing to preempt CA authority on vehicles, so this is an area where California may continue to drive action.  (I spoke to the executive officer of CARB in mid-December, and they are going to time their decision on Pavley II standards based on what is happening in Washington.  They don’t want to invite a renewed debate on preemption). Regional C &amp; T: (WRI is a convenor of this coming together). (EPA has signaled to the states that they want state help in building the offset program in the event new legislation does pass).    
  • Environmental Stories To Watch 2010

    1. 1. Environmental Stories to Watch: 2010 Jonathan Lash World Resources Institute January 7, 2010 Global Vision for a Sustainable Earth Practical Solutions for People
    2. 2. Tracking the Illegal Cut Rep. John F. Lacey Lacey Act Enforcement
    3. 4. Chesapeake legislation? Matt Petros NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
    4. 5. Average dollars per pound of annual nitrogen load reduction Sources: Agricultural BMPs: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Abt Associates Inc. Preliminary , 2009 . Chesapeake Bay: Next Generation of Tools and Actions to Restore the Bay: Preliminary Economic Analysis of Options . Washington, D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; WWTP upgrades: WRI analysis using plant upgrade costs; New practices: Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Fisheries Service, Oyster Advisory Commission. December 20, 2008 conference proceedings: Oyster restoration economic and ecologic cost offsets. Available online at: http://www.dnr.state.md.us/fisheries/oysters/mtgs/122007/meeting122007.html; New practices (cont’d): Suwanee River Algal Turf Scrubbing System Concept Design Report; Additional agricultural BMPs from Wieland, Robert, et al. 2009. Costs and Cost Efficiencies for Some Nutrient Reduction Practices in Maryland . Maryland Department of Natural Resources Coastal Program. Stormwater retrofits Enhanced NMP WWTP upgrades -High- Cover crops Land retirement Cons. tillage Grassed buffers Forest buffers Restored or constructed wetlands 21.90 47.40 6.60 3.30 3.20 3.10 1.50 1.20 Stormwater* WWTP Agriculture New practices 7.00 4.70 Native oyster aquaculture Algal turf scrubbing 3.20 Average Cost of Selected Nitrogen Reduction Measures Dollars per pound of annual nitrogen reduction Forest harvest BMPs WWTP upgrades -Low- 15.80 200 - 600 Stormwater mgmt for new development 92.40
    5. 6. 2 Copenhagen Meetings by Kuznetsov_Sergey
    6. 7. 2 years ago in Bali <ul><li>“ Developed countries want developing countries to have a commitment. I don’t think it’s possible” </li></ul><ul><li>African Delegate </li></ul><ul><li>“ Developing Countries so far have successfully resisted …pressures…and threats which we have faced to undertake commitments.” </li></ul><ul><li>- G77 Chair </li></ul>
    7. 8. Unexpected Commitments: <ul><li>Brazil – 36-39% below BAU, 15-18% below 2005 by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Mexico – 50% reduction by 2050 using cap and trade </li></ul><ul><li>Indonesia – 26% below BAU by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>South Africa – Emissions peak and start down by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>China – reduce intensity of CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 by 40 – 45% below 2005 level </li></ul><ul><li>India – reduce carbon intensity 24% by 2020 and by 2030 reduce carbon emissions by 37% from 2005 levels </li></ul>
    8. 9. Failed Negotiations Mads Nissen/EPA
    9. 10. Copenhagen Outcome TARGET: COMMITMENTS: VERIFICATION: REDD, ADAPTATION, TECHNOLOGY: FUNDING: LEGAL ACCORD: <2°, NO-50% All Major Economies Not Enough for <2° All Major Economies Report & Respond Good Progress, But no Decision No Deadline $10 Billion $100 Billion Commission
    10. 11. The Old G8 Telegraph.co.uk
    11. 12. The New C5 http://www.chinadaily.com.cn Photo: Bloomberg Photo: Rajeev Bhatt World Economic Forum Center for American Progress
    12. 13. China’s Carbon Intensity Commitment <ul><li>12 th 5 year plan </li></ul><ul><li>Green power buy </li></ul><ul><li>Clunker phase out </li></ul>ABC: Karen Barlow
    13. 14. The World’s Forests Remaining and Lost
    14. 15. Original forest cover Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009 The World’s Forests Remaining and Lost
    15. 16. Current forest cover Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009 The World’s Forests Remaining and Lost
    16. 17. Current forest cover Formerly forest, now croplands Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009 The World’s Forests Remaining and Lost
    17. 18. Current forest cover Formerly forest, now croplands Formerly forest, now pasture Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009 The World’s Forests Remaining and Lost
    18. 19. Formerly forest, now croplands Formerly forest, now pasture Intact Forest Landscapes Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009 The World’s Forests Remaining and Lost Working Forest Landscapes
    19. 20. Formerly forest, now croplands Formerly forest, now pasture Intact Forest Landscapes Tropical deforestation 2000-2005 Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009 The World’s Forests Remaining and Lost Working Forest Landscapes
    20. 21. Forest landscape restoration potential (million hectares, excluding the boreal) Higher probability Lower probability Broad-scale Mosaic Irrigated croplands Rainfed croplands Temperate 49 190 158 592 Humid Tropics 205 230 111 259 Dry Tropics 19 643 110 456 Total 272 1063 379 1306
    21. 22. The Trio LCV Score: 90% LCV Score: 87% LCV Score: 10% *Lifetime Score from League of Conservation Voters’ National Environmental Scorecard 2008
    22. 23. “ Gang of 16” Democrats Carl Levin & Debbie Stabenow (MI) Robert Byrd & John D. Rockefeller IV (WV) Blanche Lincoln & Mark Pryor (AR) Jim Webb & Mark Warner (VA) Evan Bayh (IN) Claire McCaskill (MO) Sherrod Brown (OH) Benjamin Nelson (NE) Jeff Bingaman (NM) Kent Conrad & Byron Dorgan (ND) Tim Johnson (SD)
    23. 24. “ Gang of 16” Democrats Carl Levin & Debbie Stabenow (MI) Robert Byrd & John D. Rockefeller IV (WV) Blanche Lincoln & Mark Pryor (AR) Jim Webb & Mark Warner (VA) Evan Bayh (IN) Claire McCaskill (MO) Sherrod Brown (OH) Benjamin Nelson (NE) Jeff Bingaman (NM) Kent Conrad & Byron Dorgan (ND) Tim Johnson (SD) C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C Coal data from Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) http://cait.wri.org/ & states where coal is 60% or more of electricity fuel mix
    24. 25. States with Unemployment levels higher than the National mean (10.2%) Data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Regional and State Employment and Unemployment—October 2009 10.9% 12.5% 11.2% 11% 11.2% 15.1% 13% 11% 10.5% 11.3% 12.9% 12.1% 10.5%
    25. 26. EPA Actions Underway and Likely Actions Done or Underway Planned or Likely in 2010 Mobile Sources § 202 Endangerment Finding (Expected 3/2010) Joint EPA-DOT Vehicle Emissions & Efficiency Standards (Expected 3/2010) Stationary Sources GHG Reporting Rule (Completed) New Source Performance Standards for Cement Kilns Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) pre-construction permitting (BACT) (Expected 3/2010) New Source Performance Standards for Electric Generating Units; Possibly Other Categories Title V operating permit requirements for major sources NSPS at State Level for Existing Sources—cap-and-trade or traditional performance standards?
    26. 27. State Actions Underway and Likely <ul><li>Northeast States - Low Carbon Fuel Standard </li></ul><ul><li>California - stricter vehicle emissions standards for model year 2017 and beyond.     </li></ul><ul><li>Three regional cap-and-trade programs collaborate.   </li></ul><ul><li>States likely to assert authority under the Clean Air Act.   </li></ul>
    27. 28. Bretton Woods Mount Washington Resort Old Arrangements Are Changing

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