WRI's Aqueduct Global Water Risk Mapping: Data & Methodology
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WRI's Aqueduct Global Water Risk Mapping: Data & Methodology

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This presentation takes a close look at the data and methodology behind WRI’s brand new Aqueduct water risk mapping tool (http://aqueduct.wri.org/) which includes 12 new indicators of water-related ...

This presentation takes a close look at the data and methodology behind WRI’s brand new Aqueduct water risk mapping tool (http://aqueduct.wri.org/) which includes 12 new indicators of water-related risk. Through a step by step description of how the Aqueduct water risk maps were created, it covers the hydrological modeling and data sources used to compute all 12 indicators of water-related risk, as well as the methodology used to weigh and aggregate each indicator into physical, regulatory, reputational and overall water risk scores.

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  • Welcome and thank you for joining this webinar today. There are 140 of you participating from around the world.My name is Betsy Otto, and I direct the Aqueduct project. I am very excited to talk with you today about WRI’s new Aqueduct water risk mapping tool, which we launched yesterday. Some of you may be familiar with WRI’s old Aqueduct maps and online tool. The new tool builds from our experience Includes many thousands of hours of research over the past three yearsInput from scores of companies and external experts, including some of you on this webinar Overview - - I will….Touch briefly on how we see water risks becoming more apparent – and getting more attentionGive an overview of Aqueduct’s evolutionBriefly describe our water risk framework and indicators Show you bit about how the tool worksShannon Quinn, Environmental Stewardship , Product Safety & Regulatory Affairs with P&G will talk briefly about the steps P&G has been taking to assess water risk globallyQ&AWater – and the lack of it – is emerging as one of the defining challenges of the 21st century. And it’s not just environmentalists that say so any more….
  • WRI & Aqueduct+ Alliance membersObjective: provide companies, governments and investors with the most detailed global information on water risks
  • WRI & Aqueduct+ Alliance membersObjective: provide companies, governments and investors with the most detailed global information on water risks
  • How? with a wide range of indicators that can aggregated into composite scores, as well as mapped and displayed in a comprehensive way Selection of categories was based on literature on the subject.Framework has Quantity, Quality and reg rep indicators Objective of today: discuss the methodology and data employed to calculate and map water risk in the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas
  • We tested water risks indicators in 6 priority river basins around the worldWe learned a great deal from the 6 basins we mapped (shown here, and downloadable) We focused on the opportunity to make something much more useful by creating global maps…
  • Now, 3 years later…Aqueduct is the most high-resolution, up-to-date global water risk mapping source in the world.A comprehensive set of global maps with data for 15,000 hydrological units Allows for full coverage, while still providing excellent resolutionUsing the most current data available (2010)Provides groundwater maps for the first timeSo, what is it that we are mapping? That has evolved too.
  • Indicator selection criteria We consulted with leading experts from academia, NGOs, government, and the private sectorConducted extensive external peer review with more than 20 water and water risk experts
  • Data selection criteria
  • GE
  • Of the 12 indicators in the water risk framework:6 are computed using the supply and demand data developed with ISciences and as explained by Tom Parris
  • For each sector, the top 5 withdrawals are shown. Scatterplots show observed vs. modeled for Mixed model AIC. Domestic: Between 50-80% of the within-country variation explained.Industrial: 15-55% of the within-country variation explained. Agricultural: Only 7-13% of the within country variation explained NOTE: China last observed value is 2007.
  • Consumptive use highlights predominantly agricultural use because of higher consumptive use ratio
  • GE
  • Of the 12 indicators in the water risk framework:6 are computed using the supply and demand data developed with ISciences and as explained by Tom Parris
  • Scale for all of these is GDBD hydrological unit
  • Scale for all of these is GDBD hydrological unit
  • Scale for all of these is GDBD hydrological unit
  • Of the 12 indicators in the water risk framework:6 are taken from other scientists and organizations
  • - Once we have the indicators and the data for all the catchments globally, we stack them on top of each other one by one by one…
  • We recognize that different users, different types of businesses, will prioritize risk indicators differentlyAqueduct offers a set of pre-determined indicator weightings that generate water risk maps:a “WRI default” weightingspecific weightings tailored for 9 key industry sectorsThese pre-sets are only a suggested starting point, the tool allows users to customize the weight of each indicator to reflect their own specific interests or concerns

WRI's Aqueduct Global Water Risk Mapping: Data & Methodology Presentation Transcript

  • 1. AQUEDUCTDATA & METHODOLOGYPAUL REIG, TOM PARRIS, AND FRANCIS GASSERT February 20, 2013
  • 2. AGENDA Introduction Modeling Water Supply and Demand – Tom Parris Aqueduct Indicators – Paul Reig Aggregation and scoring – Francis Gassert Q&A
  • 3. RISKS TO:GOVERNMENTSCOMPANIESINVESTORS Photo: NOAA
  • 4. DETAILED, COMPARABLE, GLOBALWATER RISK INFORMATION Photo: NASA
  • 5. UNDERSTANDING RISK: AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK Overall Water Risk Physical Risk: Physical Risk: Regulatory & QUANTITY QUALITY Reputational Risk  Baseline water stress  Inter-annual variability  Seasonal variability  Media coverage  Return flow ratio  Flood occurrence  Access to water  Upstream protected land  Drought severity  Threatened amphibians  Upstream storage  Groundwater stress
  • 6. WHERE WE PILOT TESTED: KEY BASINS
  • 7. HOW WE EVOLVED: GLOBAL MAPPING
  • 8. BUILDING ON SCIENCE: EXPERT REVIEWERS CDP Water Disclosure Project  The World Bank Ceres  US Environmental Protection Agency Columbia University  University of Michigan at Ann Arbor Deloitte Consulting LLP  University of North Carolina Chapel Hill Global Adaptation Institute  University of Virginia Global Water Strategies  Water Footprint Network Nanjing University  World Business Council for Sustainable Development National Geographic  Yale University Pacific Institute The Nature Conservancy
  • 9. DATA: SELECTION CRITERIAStep 1: Literature reviewStep 2: Public domain & global coverageStep 3: Comparative analysis to evaluate:  granularity,  time coverage  sourceStep 4: Selection of data source
  • 10. Tom Parris | Vice President | ISciencesMODELING WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND
  • 11. UNDERSTANDING RISK: AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK Overall Water Risk Physical Risk: Physical Risk: Regulatory & QUANTITY QUALITY Reputational Risk  Baseline water stress  Inter-annual variability  Seasonal variability  Media coverage  Return flow ratio  Flood occurrence  Access to water  Upstream protected land  Drought severity  Threatened amphibians  Upstream storage  Groundwater stress
  • 12. OVERVIEW MODELING: WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND Hydrologically Withdrawals & connected Runoff consumptive use catchments Catchments Demand: Withdrawals & Flow accumulator consumptive use Source: Runoff Flow accumulation Total blue Available blue Supply: Total and available water (Bt) water (Ba) blue water
  • 13. CatchmentsCATCHMENTS Global Drainage Basin Database (GDBD; n=73074) Aggregated to <100,000 km2 target Mean area = 8804 km2 (n=14998)
  • 14. WATER DEMAND: BASELINE 20101. Source data: withdrawals by sector (agricultural, domestic, and industrial) reported by country (FAO), baselined to 20102. Spatially disaggregate by sector  Agricultural withdrawals disaggregated by Global Map of Irrigated Areas (2000)  Domestic withdrawals disaggregated by Gridded Population of the World (2010) and Nighttime Lights (2010)  Industrial withdrawals disaggregated by Nighttime Lights (2010)3. Multiply each sector by consumptive use ratio4. Re-aggregate to basins and sum sectoral consumptive and total withdrawals
  • 15. Withdrawal Disaggregation MethodologyWATER DEMAND: INPUT DATA Sector Variable Source Water withdrawals FAO Aquastat All sectors Pacific Institute GDP World Bank Population World Bank Average annual precipitation FAO Aquastat Total renewable water supply FAO Aquastat Sectoral water withdrawal ratio Calculated Irrigated area FAOSTAT Agricultural FAO Aquastat Freydank & Siebert 2008 Agricultural land area World Bank Industrial CO2 emissions World Bank Electricity, total net generation Energy Information Administration Coal production Energy Information Administration Refinery Processing Gain Energy Information Administration Domestic Urban population World Bank
  • 16. WATER DEMAND: BASELINE TO 2010 Start with reported national withdrawals (FAO Aquastat) by sector (domestic, industrial, agricultural) (black points) Project using two random and two fixed effects regression models (light points) Withdrawals reported 2008-2010 were not modeled (vertical dashed line) Average four models to estimate national withdrawals for 2010 (dark red points) Regressions explained 94-99% of the total variation.
  • 17. Withdrawal Disaggregation MethodologyWATER DEMAND: DISAGGREGATION1. Input data: withdrawals by sector (agricultural, domestic, and industrial) reported by country (FAO), baselined to 20102. Spatially disaggregate by sector  Agricultural withdrawals disaggregated by Global Map of Irrigated Areas (2000)  Domestic withdrawals disaggregated by Gridded Population of the World (2010) and Nighttime Lights (2010)  Industrial withdrawals disaggregated by Nighttime Lights (2010)3. Multiply each sector by consumptive use ratio4. Re-aggregate to basins and sum sectoral consumptive and total withdrawals
  • 18. WATER DEMAND: AGRICULTURE Global Map of Irrigation Area
  • 19. WATER DEMAND: INDUSTRY Nighttime Lights (2010)
  • 20. WATER DEMAND: DOMESTIC Gridded Population of the World (2010) Nighttime Lights (2010)
  • 21. WATER DEMAND: TOTAL WITHDRAWALS Total withdrawals (Ut) are the sum of agricultural, 𝑈 𝑡 = 𝑈 𝑎𝑎𝑎 + 𝑈 𝑑𝑑𝑑 + 𝑈 𝑖𝑖𝑖 domestic, and industrial withdrawals
  • 22. WATER DEMAND: CONSUMPTIVE USE1. Input data: withdrawals by sector (agricultural, domestic, and industrial) reported by country (FAO), baselined to 20102. Spatially disaggregate by sector  Agricultural withdrawals disaggregated by Global Map of Irrigated Areas (2000)  Domestic withdrawals disaggregated by Gridded Population of the World (2010) and Nighttime Lights (2010)  Industrial withdrawals disaggregated by Nighttime Lights (2010)3. Multiply each sector by consumptive use ratio4. Re-aggregate to basins and sum sectoral consumptive and total withdrawals
  • 23. WATER DEMAND: CONSUMPTIVE USE Consumptive use (Ct) is the sum of sectoral use times the sectoral consumptive use ratio (cr) (Shiklomanov and Rodda 2003) 𝐶𝑡 = 𝑈 𝑎𝑎𝑎 × 𝑐𝑐 𝑎𝑎𝑎 + 𝑈 𝑑𝑑𝑑 × 𝑐𝑐 𝑑𝑑𝑑 + 𝑈 𝑖𝑖𝑖 × 𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑖𝑖
  • 24. WATER SOURCE: RUNOFF evaluated 4 datasets (UNH/GRDC, CFSR, MERRA-Land, GLDAS-2) GLDAS-2, 1°, NOAH monthly (summed to annual) 1948-2008 (used 1950-2008) directly resampled to 1km without interpolation
  • 25. MODELING: FLOW ACCUMULATION runoffa Runoff  Precipitation minus evapotranspiration, loss to groundwater, and increase in soil runoffb Bta moisture. Total Blue Water (Bt)  Accumulated runoff  Equivalent to naturalized flow. Btb
  • 26. MODELING: FLOW ACCUMULATION runoffa Runoff  Precipitation minus evaporation, transpiration, deep groundwater recharge, and change in soil moisture Baa runoffb Total Blue Water  Accumulated runoff consumptive usea  Equivalent to naturalized flow Available Blue Water (Ba) Bab  Upstream runoff minus consumptive use, plus runoff  Loosely equivalent to surface water consumptive useb and shallow groundwater
  • 27. WATER SUPPLY: TOTAL BLUE WATER Total blue water (Bt) is the sum of naturalized (uninhibited) runoff
  • 28. WATER SUPPLY: AVAILABLE BLUE WATER Available blue water (Ba) is the sum of upstream runoff minus consumptive use
  • 29. Paul Reig | Aqueduct Project | WRIAQUEDUCT’S WATER RISK INDICATORS
  • 30. UNDERSTANDING RISK : AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK Overall Water Risk Physical Risk: Physical Risk: Regulatory & QUANTITY QUALITY Reputational Risk  Baseline water stress  Inter-annual variability  Seasonal variability  Media coverage  Return flow ratio  Flood occurrence  Access to water  Upstream protected land  Drought severity  Threatened amphibians  Upstream storage  Groundwater stress
  • 31. SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 (2010) 𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐁 𝐰𝐰𝐰𝐰𝐰 𝐬𝐬𝐬𝐬𝐬𝐬 = 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 (1950 − 2008)
  • 32. SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑜𝑜 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 (1950 − 2008)𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈𝐈 𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯 = 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 (1950 − 2008)
  • 33. SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 (1950 − 2008)𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒𝐒 𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯𝐯 = 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 (1950 − 2008)
  • 34. SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝐔𝐔𝐔𝐔𝐔𝐔𝐔𝐔 𝐬𝐬𝐬𝐬𝐬𝐬𝐬 = 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 (1950 − 2008) Data: Lehner et al. GRanD
  • 35. SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 1950 − 2008𝐔𝐔𝐔𝐔𝐔𝐔𝐔𝐔 𝐩𝐩𝐩𝐩𝐩𝐩𝐩𝐩𝐩 𝐥𝐥𝐥𝐥 = 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 1950 − 2008 Data: IUCN, UNEP
  • 36. SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 𝑢𝑢𝑢 (2010) 𝐑𝐑𝐑𝐑𝐑𝐑 𝐟𝐟𝐟𝐟 𝐫𝐫𝐫𝐫𝐫 = 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 (1950 − 2008)
  • 37. UNDERSTANDING RISK : AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK Overall Water Risk Physical Risk: Physical Risk: Regulatory & QUANTITY QUALITY Reputational Risk  Baseline water stress  Inter-annual variability  Seasonal variability  Media coverage  Return flow ratio  Flood occurrence  Access to water  Upstream protected land  Drought severity  Threatened amphibians  Upstream storage  Groundwater stress
  • 38. OTHER INDICATORS Indicator Data Source Scale Brakenridge, Dartmouth Flood occurrence Polygons Flood Observatory 1 degree raster Drought severity Sheffield and Wood Groundwater stress Gleeson et al. Major aquifers Media coverage Google Country Access to water WHO, UNICEF CountryThreatened amphibians IUCN Red List Polygons
  • 39. Francis Gassert | Aqueduct Project | WRIAQUEDUCT’S WATER RISK FRAMEWORK
  • 40. UNDERSTANDING RISK : AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK Overall Water Risk Physical Risk: Physical Risk: Regulatory & QUANTITY QUALITY Reputational Risk  Baseline water stress  Inter-annual variability  Seasonal variability  Media coverage  Return flow ratio  Flood occurrence  Access to water  Upstream protected land  Drought severity  Threatened amphibians  Upstream storage  Groundwater stress
  • 41. ENABLING COMPARABILITY : THRESHOLDSThresholds: 1. Create categories for communication 2. Enable scoring and aggregationThresholds determined using:  existing literature  governmental or intergovernmental guidelines  range and distribution of indicator values  expert judgment
  • 42. NORMALIZING AND SCORING Values mapped over thresholds using continuous functions Raw value (r) : 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 Score : 0 1 2 3 4 5 ln 𝑟 − ln 𝑡1 𝑓BWS 𝑟 = min(5, max(0, + 1 )) ln 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏
  • 43. PUTTING IT TOGETHER : AGGREGATION
  • 44. PUTTING IT TOGETHER : AGGREGATIONWeighted average  For each region (j): ∑ 𝑥 𝑖𝑖 𝑤 𝑖 𝑎𝑗 = 𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑖 𝑖𝑖 {𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 𝑥 𝑖𝑖 ≠ 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛} ∑ 𝑤𝑖Re-normalize to display full range of relative values  Final displayed “overall water risk” (sj): 𝑎 𝑗 − min(𝑎) 𝑠𝑗 = 5 max 𝑎 − min(𝑎)
  • 45. UNIQUE USERS : TAILORED WEIGHTING WRI Default Agriculture Food & Beverage Chemicals Electric power Semi-conductor Oil & Gas MiningConstruction Materials Textile 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%  Quantity  Quality  Regulatory and reputational
  • 46. BALANCING INDICATORS : SETTING WEIGHTSExposure to risk varies– users can set own weightsDefault weights set by:  WRI water expert panel  Corporate disclosure documentation  Industry leader review
  • 47. PUBLICATIONS Aqueduct Global Maps 2.0:http://www.wri.org/publication/aqueduct-metadata-global Aqueduct Water Risk Framework:http://www.wri.org/publication/aqueduct-water-risk-framework Aqueduct Data and Methodology: in prep
  • 48. Thank you for joining! CONTACT US Paul Reig | preig@wri.orgFrancis Gassert | fgassert@wri.orgWRI.org/Aqueduct