Gold Demand Trends
Full year 2013
19th February 2014
Disclaimer
Sources, copyright and disclaimer
© 2014 World Gold Council. Where expressly identified as such, the gold suppl...
Agenda
• Summary of full year 2013
• Summary of India and China
• Review of demand
- Jewellery
- Investment
- Central Bank...
Introduction

Summary of the full year 2013
Marcus Grubb

4
Summary of gold demand and supply
Tonnes

2012

2013

Gold demand

4,470.4

3,744.5

Q1'13

Q2'13

-16%

1,032.2

1,007.4
...
India and China: engines of growth

World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014

6
Despite strong 2013, consumers keen for more

World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014

7
China insight

8
New market paradigm - Jewellery demand shifted
to East

World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February ...
New market paradigm – some key indicators
• Asia is getting richer
• Global GDP from 24% to 31% in last decade (Source: OW...
Benefited from growth in GDP and Western market crisis
Monthly average gold price (London PM fix, US$/oz)

Central bank st...
India insight

12
Time line of recent India gold regulations

17 Jan 2012
Import tax increased to 2%

16 Mar 2012
Import tax increased from
...
Supply squeeze caused elevated premiums in India

World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014

...
Market dynamics – demand side

15
Total gold demand
Demand (tonnes)

2012

2013

1,896.1

2,209.5

17%

554.8

602.8

498.0

553.8

Technology

407.5

404.8...
Record consumer demand offset by ETF outflows

World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014

17
Market dynamics – supply side

18
Recycled gold continues to decline, down 14% YoY in
2013

World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | Februar...
Conclusion
• 2013 saw record volumes of consumer demand – 3,864 tonnes.

• Sharp drop in prices generated an unprecedented...
Thank you
World Gold Council
10 Old Bailey, London EC4M 7NG
United Kingdom
T +44 20 7826 4700
F +44 20 7826 4799
W www.gol...
World Gold Council research – simple to access

• To download or subscribe to our gold
investment research studies:
• www....
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

World Gold Council: Full Year 2013 Gold Demand Trends

980 views
808 views

Published on

World Gold Council: Full Year 2013 Gold Demand Trends

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
980
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
57
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
13
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

World Gold Council: Full Year 2013 Gold Demand Trends

  1. 1. Gold Demand Trends Full year 2013 19th February 2014
  2. 2. Disclaimer Sources, copyright and disclaimer © 2014 World Gold Council. Where expressly identified as such, the gold supply and demand statistics contained in this report were complied by Thomson Reuters GFMS. Thomson Reuters GFMS retains all rights in such statistics © 2014. This presentation is provided solely for general information and educational purposes. It is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, gold, any gold related products or any other products, securities or investments. It does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote gold, any gold related products or any other products, securities or investments. This presentation contains forward-looking statements. The use of the words “believes,” “expects,” “may,” or “suggests” or words of similar import, identifies a statement as “forwardlooking.” The forward-looking statements included herein are based on current expectations that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on the analysis of the World Gold Council. Assumptions relating to the foregoing involve judgments with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately. In addition, the demand for gold and the international gold markets are subject to substantial risks which increase the uncertainty inherent in the forward-looking statements. In light of the significant uncertainties inherent in the forward-looking information included herein, the inclusion of such information should not be regarded as a representation by the World Gold Council that the forward-looking statements will be achieved. We caution you not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements. Except in the normal course of our publication cycle, we do not intend to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, and we assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements. Past performance is no indication of future results. This presentation does not purport to make any recommendations or provide any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of gold, any gold related products or any other products, securities or investments, including without limitation, any advice to the effect that any gold related transaction is appropriate for any investment objective or financial situation of a prospective investor. A decision to invest in gold, any gold related products or any other products, securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the statements in this presentation. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision. No part of this presentation may be copied, reproduced, republished, sold, distributed, transmitted, circulated, modified, displayed or otherwise used for any purpose whatsoever, including, without limitation, as a basis for preparing derivative works, without the prior written authorization of the World Gold Council. While the accuracy of any information communicated herewith has been checked, neither the World Gold Council nor any of its affiliates can guarantee such accuracy. In no event will the World Gold Council or any of its affiliates be liable for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information in this presentation or for any consequential, special, punitive, incidental, indirect or similar damages arising from, related to or connected with this presentation even if notified of the possibility of such damages. Expressions of opinion are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 2
  3. 3. Agenda • Summary of full year 2013 • Summary of India and China • Review of demand - Jewellery - Investment - Central Banks - Technology • Review of supply World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 3
  4. 4. Introduction Summary of the full year 2013 Marcus Grubb 4
  5. 5. Summary of gold demand and supply Tonnes 2012 2013 Gold demand 4,470.4 3,744.5 Q1'13 Q2'13 -16% 1,032.2 1,007.4 898.5 806.4 -55.2 595.4 - 3.0 11.6 263.5 317.2 Total demand (fabrication basis) 4,415.2 4,339.9 -2% 1,035.2 1,019.0 1,162.0 1,123.6 Total supply 4,415.2 4,339.9 -2% 1,035.2 1,019.0 1,162.0 1,123.6 Gold (London PM fix, US$/oz) 1,669.0 1,411.2 -15% 1,631.8 1,414.8 1,326.3 1,276.2 OTC investment & stock flows YoY% Q3'13 Q4'13 *Provisional Note: Gold prices are averaged over the period they refer to Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, LBMA, World Gold Council World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 5
  6. 6. India and China: engines of growth World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 6
  7. 7. Despite strong 2013, consumers keen for more World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 7
  8. 8. China insight 8
  9. 9. New market paradigm - Jewellery demand shifted to East World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 9
  10. 10. New market paradigm – some key indicators • Asia is getting richer • Global GDP from 24% to 31% in last decade (Source: OW report : Asian Finance 2020) • Growing middle class (Source: EY Middle Class growth in Emerging Market) - China o 2010 - 150 Mn o 2020 - 500 Mn - India o 2010 - 50 Mn o 2020 - 200 Mn • Asia financial sector represents 37% of total world banking and insurance market capitalisation (Source: OW report : Asian Finance 2020) World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 10
  11. 11. Benefited from growth in GDP and Western market crisis Monthly average gold price (London PM fix, US$/oz) Central bank stimulus 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Financial crisis 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 Euro crisis Source: LBMA, World Gold Council GDP, US$tn CAGR 2000-12 CAGR 2012-18F 25 20 10.4% 15 12.4% 10 8.3% 9.4% 5 2018F 2017F 2016F 2015F 2014F 2013F 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 0 Source: IMF WEO, World Gold Council World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 11
  12. 12. India insight 12
  13. 13. Time line of recent India gold regulations 17 Jan 2012 Import tax increased to 2% 16 Mar 2012 Import tax increased from 2% to 4% 21 Jan 2013 Import tax raised from 4% to 6% 13 May 2013 Restrictions placed on bank imports via consignment 4 Jun 2013 Consignment restrictions extended to agencies, with imports on cash outright basis 5 Jun 2013 Import tax raised from 6% to 8% 27 Jun 2013 Imports permitted only if intended to meet needs of jewellery consumers 22 Jul 2013 Restrictions on consignments removed, introduction of 80/20 policy 13 Aug 2013 Increase in import tax from 8% to 10%, excise tax raised from 7% to 9% 14 Aug 2013 Response from authorities to queries on 80/20 policy; with some changes announced 31 Dec 2013 Refineries permitted to import gold doré within 80/20 limits World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 13
  14. 14. Supply squeeze caused elevated premiums in India World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 14
  15. 15. Market dynamics – demand side 15
  16. 16. Total gold demand Demand (tonnes) 2012 2013 1,896.1 2,209.5 17% 554.8 602.8 498.0 553.8 Technology 407.5 404.8 -1% 102.5 103.2 102.8 96.2 Investment 1,568.1 773.3 -51% 264.5 182.9 179.1 146.7 544.1 368.6 -32% 129.1 82.4 96.2 61.0 Gold demand 4,415.8 3,756.1 -15% 1,050.9 971.3 876.1 857.8 Gold demand (value, US$mn) 236,946 170,422 -28% 55,134 44,181 37,358 35,195 Jewellery Central bank net purchases YoY% Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 *Provisional Note: Gold prices are averaged over the period they refer to Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, LBMA, World Gold Council World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 16
  17. 17. Record consumer demand offset by ETF outflows World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 17
  18. 18. Market dynamics – supply side 18
  19. 19. Recycled gold continues to decline, down 14% YoY in 2013 World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 19
  20. 20. Conclusion • 2013 saw record volumes of consumer demand – 3,864 tonnes. • Sharp drop in prices generated an unprecedented reaction, initially in the East before filtering out to western market. • Growth in consumer demand offset ETF outflows. • 2013 was the fourth consecutive year of net purchases by central banks. • Technology demand was stable, underpinned by lower prices and improved consumer sentiment. • Supply contracted by 2% as a drop in recycling activity outweighed mine production growth. World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 | February 2014 20
  21. 21. Thank you World Gold Council 10 Old Bailey, London EC4M 7NG United Kingdom T +44 20 7826 4700 F +44 20 7826 4799 W www.gold.org
  22. 22. World Gold Council research – simple to access • To download or subscribe to our gold investment research studies: • www.gold.org/investment/research • Or click on the link below: Research app for investors – available on iPad / iPhone • Or scan: Ease of navigation, several views available 22

×