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Reconstituting the
Middle Class
Prepared for World Future Society
Annual Conference - July 2014
Presentation By:
Virginia ...
Panelists
Jim Damicis
Senior Vice
President
Camoin Associates
Rupam
Shrivastava
Director
ePlanet Capital
Moderator
Virgini...
Session Overview
 Economic Trends and The Middle Class
 Capacity Building for Transformational
Community Development
 A...
3 economies in transition
 Industrial economy
 Knowledge economy
 Creative Molecular economy
Definition: “An economy ba...
Shrinking US Middle Class
Percent of adults self-identifying as each social class
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2008 2010 201...
% of Aggregate US Household
Income
1972 2012
Upper class 44% 51%
Upper middle class 24.5% 23%
Middle class 17% 14.4%
Lower...
Median US Household Income
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983...
Median US Household Income
in 2012 dollars
$45,788
$56,080
$51,017
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000 1975...
Decreasing Manufacturing
Jobs
 In 1979, there were 20
million manufacturing
jobs in the US
 Today there are 12.1
million...
Top Employment Sectors
Fayette County, Ga
2003
1) Retail
2) Manufacturing
3) Construction
2013
1) Retail
2) Healthcare and...
Capacity Building:
Transformational Community
Development
 21st century Leadership Development
 Future focused community...
21st Century Leadership Skills
 Ability to spot weak signals & emerging trends
 Future focused
 Use “and/both” thinking...
Community Conversations
 Facilitated
 Future Focused
 Ask appropriate questions
 Diverse panels (age, gender, race, et...
Adaptive Planning
 Establish framework
 DICE Method (Design, Identify, Connect,
Emerge)
 Allow for ebb and flow of huma...
Capacity Building:
Transformational Community
Development
 21st century Leadership Development
 Future focused community...
“We are unsettled to the very roots of our being. There
isn’t a human relation, whether of parent and child,
husband and w...
Reconstituting the Middle Class
Networks and Entrepreneurship
Prepared for World Future Society Annual Conference
July 201...
Trends Contributing to Loss of Middle Class
• Loss of Manufacturing Jobs – movement from low skill to higher skill jobs
th...
19
Self Employment
Source: America’s Self-Employment Landscape, Joshua Wright, Economic Modeling Specialist Inc.,
February...
20
The “Freelance Economy”
The Freelance Economy- One in three Americans,
roughly 42 million, are estimated to be freelanc...
21
“The Gig Economy”
• It is estimated that contingent
workers made up over 11% of
the labor force in 2005
• Most new jobs...
22
Richard Florida on the Service Class
• “More than 60 million American workers - 45 percent of the
work force.”
• “Proje...
23
Technological Unemployment
From McKinsey Global as referenced in Now even the big banks are talking about
technological...
24
What This All Means for Economic Growth and
The Middle Class?
Cannot Rely on or Wait for Recovery to Enable
Large Compa...
25
Two Opportunities for Transformation to
Reconstitute the Middle Class:
Building Capacity and Diversity Among Workers
an...
26
Characteristics of the Creative Molecular Economy:
•Regional & Global Innovation Networks
•Crowdsourced and Continuous ...
27
“More than 90 percent of all American
entrepreneurs came from middle-class or
lower.”
Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation ...
28
Entrepreneurial Networks
“Entrepreneurship often is a lonely, emotional,
and challenging process that evolves over time...
29
The Future Worker -Self-Organized Networks
“The confluence of advances in social, mobile and cloud
technologies has beg...
30
The Future Worker -Self-Organized Networks
Socially aware businesses are embracing the Peer-to-Peer
approach; first and...
31
A New Approach for the Middle Class
• Developing skills and leveraging networks to create your own
business/job
• Used ...
32
A New Approach for the Middle Class, Cont.
• Support capacity building among lower and middle class to
learn and levera...
33
New measurements/focus for economic
development, growth, and workforce – not jobs
and businesses created but:
• Network...
34
Ultra-rich man’s letter: “To My Fellow Filthy Rich Americans: The Pitchforks
Are Coming” Nick Hanauer, politico - June ...
35
What Else?
•All of this requires new approaches to
financing business and economic
growth.
New funding sources for the
Creative Molecular Economy future
Rupam Shrivastava
Innovation is central to the concept of a Creative Molecular Economy
Innovation and entrepreneurship in CME
 New tenets o...
CME Company
Innovation
focus
Harnessing
local talent /
ecosystem
Smaller and
more nimble
Integrated
with the local
ecosyst...
39
CME companies will be well integrated with the local ecosystem , which will develop into an
“innovation center” or “CME...
40
While new innovative funding sources are being experimented, sources of liquidity are still the
traditional public mark...
 5 April 2012, President Obama signed the JOBS (Jumpstart Our Business Startups) Act
intended to encourage funding of sma...
42
Local exchanges will need to overcome the hurdles faced by OTC exchanges, which mainly hover
around transparency and av...
• Weak signals
• New products / services
• Collaborative networks
• Avoid herd mentality
• Local competitive
advantage
• I...
44
All the important players in the CME ecosystem will work together to create a virtuous cycle of
innovation funding and ...
Each CME Region will be interconnected with other regions and will enable knowledge sharing and
distributive thinking
Regi...
Conclusion
 Financing start-ups in the context of CME will involve some evolutionary changes on the funding
side and revo...
Session Summary
 Economic Trends and The Middle Class
 Capacity Building for Transformational
Community Development
 A ...
Q&A
Contact
Jim Damicis
Senior Vice President
Camoin Associates
jim@camoinassociates.com
camoinassociates.com
Rupam Shrivastav...
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Reconstituting the Middle Class

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Presented by Jim Damicis, Rupam Shrivastava, and Virginia Gibbs

In 2012 and 2013, two COTF panels introduced the concept of the emergence of a Creative Molecular Economy (CME) at the World Future Society conference. New ideas such as a Future Forward Workforce, Leadership for an Emerging New Economy and Building Interlocking Entrepreneurial Networks were introduced. This session continues to introduce new practical practices for a CME to include a 21st Century System of Venture Capital and how to create regional centers able to build capacities for a CME.

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  • Also changed with Obama Jobs act. In 2012, Indiegogo was invited to join President Obama’s White House signing of
    the JOBS Act that will expand online crowdfunding from perks-based crowdfunding
    to include equity investments. On stage with President Obama was Emmy’s
    Organics, a dessert company from Ithaca, NY that was denied a loan by a local bank
    before raising $15,000 on Indiegogo. Another case study in the audience included
    LuminAID, who raised $50,000 to create and distribute a new inflatable solar light
    to support disaster relief efforts.
  • Edit to include contact information
  • Transcript of "Reconstituting the Middle Class"

    1. 1. Reconstituting the Middle Class Prepared for World Future Society Annual Conference - July 2014 Presentation By: Virginia Gibbs, President & CEO, Fayette Chamber of Commerce Jim Damicis, Senior Vice President, Camoin Associates Rupam Shrivastava, Director, ePlanet Capital
    2. 2. Panelists Jim Damicis Senior Vice President Camoin Associates Rupam Shrivastava Director ePlanet Capital Moderator Virginia Gibbs President/CEO Fayette Chamber of Commerce
    3. 3. Session Overview  Economic Trends and The Middle Class  Capacity Building for Transformational Community Development  A New Approach for Economic and Workforce Development  New Methods of Financing Economic Growth and Job Creation
    4. 4. 3 economies in transition  Industrial economy  Knowledge economy  Creative Molecular economy Definition: “An economy based on the integration of emerging radical technologies, with creative individuals, small groups and companies organized in interlocking networks, connecting and disconnecting constantly in processes of continuous innovation.”
    5. 5. Shrinking US Middle Class Percent of adults self-identifying as each social class 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2008 2010 2012 2014 Middle Class Upper Lower Source: Pew Research Center
    6. 6. % of Aggregate US Household Income 1972 2012 Upper class 44% 51% Upper middle class 24.5% 23% Middle class 17% 14.4% Lower middle class 10.4% 8.3% Lower class 4.1% 3.2% Source: US Census
    7. 7. Median US Household Income $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
    8. 8. Median US Household Income in 2012 dollars $45,788 $56,080 $51,017 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
    9. 9. Decreasing Manufacturing Jobs  In 1979, there were 20 million manufacturing jobs in the US  Today there are 12.1 million manufacturing jobs nationwide  During that time, the total workforce grew from 98.3 million to 145.8 million  In Georgia, manufacturing peaked in 1997 with 556,700 jobs  Today there are roughly 361,000 manufacturing jobs in Georgia Source: Atlanta Journal Constitution, June 2014
    10. 10. Top Employment Sectors Fayette County, Ga 2003 1) Retail 2) Manufacturing 3) Construction 2013 1) Retail 2) Healthcare and social services 3) Accommodations and Food Services
    11. 11. Capacity Building: Transformational Community Development  21st century Leadership Development  Future focused community conversations  Adaptive planning  Interconnectedness/interlocking networks
    12. 12. 21st Century Leadership Skills  Ability to spot weak signals & emerging trends  Future focused  Use “and/both” thinking  Parallel paths  Comfortable with ambiguity  Deep Collaboration  Highly developed interlocking networks  No silver bullet
    13. 13. Community Conversations  Facilitated  Future Focused  Ask appropriate questions  Diverse panels (age, gender, race, etc.) Example of Question: “How do we prepare students for future jobs which don’t yet exist?”
    14. 14. Adaptive Planning  Establish framework  DICE Method (Design, Identify, Connect, Emerge)  Allow for ebb and flow of human engagement  Need high level of trust and accountability
    15. 15. Capacity Building: Transformational Community Development  21st century Leadership Development  Future focused community conversations  Adaptive planning  Interconnectedness/interlocking networks
    16. 16. “We are unsettled to the very roots of our being. There isn’t a human relation, whether of parent and child, husband and wife, worker and employer, that doesn’t move in a strange situation…There are no precedents to guide us, no wisdom that wasn’t made for a simpler age. We have changed our environment more quickly than we know how to change ourselves.” Walter Lippmann Pulitzer Prize winning journalist 1914
    17. 17. Reconstituting the Middle Class Networks and Entrepreneurship Prepared for World Future Society Annual Conference July 2014 Presentation By: Jim Damicis Senior Vice President jim@camoinassociates.com www.camoinassociates.com Twitter: @jdamicis Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/jdamicis Blog: www.camoinassociates.com/blog/ 17
    18. 18. Trends Contributing to Loss of Middle Class • Loss of Manufacturing Jobs – movement from low skill to higher skill jobs that require education/training • Loss of Government Jobs • Rise of Service Economy – lower wages, less benefits, less full-time • Healthcare – rising costs – less being paid by employer • Decrease of Unions and their Influence • Housing – now a riskier investment – harder to enter market • Increased Globalization – increased supply of workers • Growth of Independent Contracting and Contingent Workers • Rising Cost of Education • Increase in Skills Gap • Job Replacement Through Technology – Technological Unemployment 18
    19. 19. 19 Self Employment Source: America’s Self-Employment Landscape, Joshua Wright, Economic Modeling Specialist Inc., February 6th, 2014, http://www.economicmodeling.com/2014/02/06/americas-self-employment- landscape/
    20. 20. 20 The “Freelance Economy” The Freelance Economy- One in three Americans, roughly 42 million, are estimated to be freelancers. By 2020, freelancers are expected to make up 50% of the full time workforce. Independent work is becoming more common across all generations. The Part-Time, Freelance, Collaborative Economy, Newgeography, Roger Selbert 03/26/2014 - http://www.newgeography.com/content/004222-the-part-time-freelance-collaborative-economy
    21. 21. 21 “The Gig Economy” • It is estimated that contingent workers made up over 11% of the labor force in 2005 • Most new jobs since 2001 have been under contingent arrangements The Rise of the Gig Economy, the Rise of the Gig Economy, Gerald Friedman, Dollars & Sense, March/April 2014, http://dollarsandsense.org/archives/2014/0314friedman.html
    22. 22. 22 Richard Florida on the Service Class • “More than 60 million American workers - 45 percent of the work force.” • “Projected to make up more than half of projected new jobs to 2018 - 7.1 million new jobs” “We have to make service class jobs good jobs - sources of innovation, continuous improvement, and productivity gains” Source: Where Service Jobs Will Be, The Atlantic Cities, August 23 2010 - www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/08/where-service-jobs-will- be/61465/#.UF5wQzqgxMQ.mailto
    23. 23. 23 Technological Unemployment From McKinsey Global as referenced in Now even the big banks are talking about technological unemployment, James Pethokoukis, May 30, 2014 http://www.aei-ideas.org/2014/05/now-even-the-big-banks-are-talking-about- technological-unemployment/#mbl • “Historically, when labor-saving technologies were introduced, new and higher value-adding jobs were created. This usually happens over the long term.” • “However, productivity without the innovation that leads to the creation of higher value-added jobs results in unemployment and economic problems.”
    24. 24. 24 What This All Means for Economic Growth and The Middle Class? Cannot Rely on or Wait for Recovery to Enable Large Companies and Institutions to Create and Sustain Full-time, Permanent, Wage Jobs!
    25. 25. 25 Two Opportunities for Transformation to Reconstitute the Middle Class: Building Capacity and Diversity Among Workers and the Middle Class for: •Networks – Diverse, Interlocking, Self-Organizing •Entrepreneurship and Innovation
    26. 26. 26 Characteristics of the Creative Molecular Economy: •Regional & Global Innovation Networks •Crowdsourced and Continuous Innovation •Future Forward Workforce – adaptable • Crowdsourced Start-up Financing • New Technologies Transforming Production • Identifying Weak Signals • Broad-band infrastructure capable of uploading and downloading massive amounts of data
    27. 27. 27 “More than 90 percent of all American entrepreneurs came from middle-class or lower.” Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation (July 2009) Entrepreneurship and The Middle Class
    28. 28. 28 Entrepreneurial Networks “Entrepreneurship often is a lonely, emotional, and challenging process that evolves over time.” “To be successful, entrepreneurs need connections to potential mentors, networks for learning, and emotional support from peers at all stages of the entrepreneurial process”. The Dos and Don'ts of Local Entrepreneurship Promotion, Kaufman Foundation, Entrepreneurship Policy Digest www.kauffman.org
    29. 29. 29 The Future Worker -Self-Organized Networks “The confluence of advances in social, mobile and cloud technologies has begun to shift economic power from large- scale institutions that dominated the industrial age through sheer size and economies of scale to self-organizing individuals and loosely governed networks. The ability to self-organize in order to produce and repurpose products and information has reduced the efficacy of long-standing business frameworks, processes and decision-making.” The Rise of The Empowered Employee, Maria Ogneva, By yammer in Tips & Guides, March 16, 2012. https://about.yammer.com/yammer-blog/the-rise-of-the- empowered-employee/
    30. 30. 30 The Future Worker -Self-Organized Networks Socially aware businesses are embracing the Peer-to-Peer approach; first and foremost, people want to talk to other people in organizations. Employees have personal and portable networks they can tap in order to get work done, thus weakening their dependencies on company resources. By joining creation spaces and communities, individuals can now create products, content and even movements, based on their passions and find solutions that they wouldn’t find on their own. The Rise of The Empowered Employee, Maria Ogneva, By yammer in Tips & Guides, March 16, 2012. https://about.yammer.com/yammer-blog/the-rise-of-the- empowered-employee/
    31. 31. 31 A New Approach for the Middle Class • Developing skills and leveraging networks to create your own business/job • Used to be much higher risk then wage employment (working for someone else) but not so much anymore • Programs and policies to support entrepreneurship and innovation grew in the past 20 years through growth in knowledge economy • We must now make entrepreneurship and innovation a pervasive culture – everyone can do it and practice it in our institutions, companies, jobs, and in developing their own capacities
    32. 32. 32 A New Approach for the Middle Class, Cont. • Support capacity building among lower and middle class to learn and leverage the tools developed by the freelance, gig, and knowledge economy • Including through schools, open-public places such as libraries, for all kinds of people including immigrants, the unemployed, workers – not just for the intellectual, entrepreneurial elite • Extend beyond manufacturing and high-tech to service economy
    33. 33. 33 New measurements/focus for economic development, growth, and workforce – not jobs and businesses created but: • Networks – reach and depth • Peer to peer learning and collaboration • For businesses but also people/workers • Diversity of participation A New Approach for the Middle Class, Cont.
    34. 34. 34 Ultra-rich man’s letter: “To My Fellow Filthy Rich Americans: The Pitchforks Are Coming” Nick Hanauer, politico - June 30, 2014 Why We Must Transform and Reconstitute the Middle Class: “The Pitchforks are Coming” “If we don’t do something to fix the glaring inequities in this economy, the pitchforks are going to come for us. No society can sustain this kind of rising inequality. In fact, there is no example in human history where wealth accumulated like this and the pitchforks didn’t eventually come out. You show me a highly unequal society, and I will show you a police state. Or an uprising. There are no counterexamples. None. It’s not if, it’s when.”
    35. 35. 35 What Else? •All of this requires new approaches to financing business and economic growth.
    36. 36. New funding sources for the Creative Molecular Economy future Rupam Shrivastava
    37. 37. Innovation is central to the concept of a Creative Molecular Economy Innovation and entrepreneurship in CME  New tenets of CME are inherently entrepreneur friendly  Market participants and business leaders need to be comfortable with uncertainty, ambiguity, and nonlinear activities(1)  Frequent changes in ideas and direction are central to this innovative process  Developed markets:  Reached current economic levels by innovation – e.g. industrial revolution in the mid 1800s and technology revolution in late 1900s  Emerging markets:  Lot of recent growth playing ‘catch-up’  Future growth dependent on innovation (1) Creative Molecular Economy Innovation Model: McAllen, Texas. Creative Molecular Economy model(1)
    38. 38. CME Company Innovation focus Harnessing local talent / ecosystem Smaller and more nimble Integrated with the local ecosystem Locally financed and owned More employee focused 38 CME companies will be different from current start-ups as they will have a larger local footprint CME companies    Ways how CME start-ups will be different from those today
    39. 39. 39 CME companies will be well integrated with the local ecosystem , which will develop into an “innovation center” or “CME Region” CME Regions CME Companies Stakeholders: Employees, investors Investors: Angels, Banks, Accelerators Business partners: Other companies, customers Liquidity sources: Acquirers, public markets CME Regions will be similar to innovation districts of today  Semiconductors and IT in Silicon Valley  High-tech. and life sciences in Research Triangle Park in North Carolina  Biotech in the Boston area However, a CME Region would not only be self reliant on indigenous innovation, but local funding and exit sources as well. Only Silicon Valley comes close today
    40. 40. 40 While new innovative funding sources are being experimented, sources of liquidity are still the traditional public markets and acquirers Evaluation of current financing sources for CME Companies Self, friends, family Angels / Accelerators / Crowd- funding Venture capital Bank loans and guarantees Public markets Acqui- rers OTC exchanges CME Ideal Funding source req. Funding side Exit side Adequacy of size X X X X X X Liquidity X X X X Transparency X X X X X X Company charac. Funding side Exit side Innovation focus X X X X X X Small and nimble X X X X X X Integrated with local eco. X X X X Locally financed X X X X Employee focused X X X  Innovative funding sources have been developed to address the hitherto dearth of investment capital  Liquidity sources – i.e. public market, acquirers and OTC exchanges cannot handle the kind of CME companies that will emerge soon
    41. 41.  5 April 2012, President Obama signed the JOBS (Jumpstart Our Business Startups) Act intended to encourage funding of small businesses by easing various securities regulations  Prior to this, US legislation prohibited public solicitation for private companies raising funds.  The SEC will regulate crowdfunding in the USA. JOBS Act – further facilitating funding  [IN EFFECT] Companies can solicit investments from accredited investors online  Accredited investors can invest <$100,000 (per company) annually  [COMING SOON IN EFFECT] Non-accredited investors may purchase equity through crowdfunding  Companies can raise up to $1,000,000 per year Title II Title III
    42. 42. 42 Local exchanges will need to overcome the hurdles faced by OTC exchanges, which mainly hover around transparency and avoidance of fraud. Below are initial areas to consider Junior exchanges – facilitating exits Funding sources and history Social and corporate network validation Financial reporting Prior trades and investments Insider information – guarantors, mentors Related company information Other going concern related metrics Information exchange New junior exchanges will be online and automated to reduce establishment and running costs
    43. 43. • Weak signals • New products / services • Collaborative networks • Avoid herd mentality • Local competitive advantage • Integration with local ecosystem • Web 2.0 / 3.0 • Social media 43 Listing requirements on junior exchanges will be similar to current requirements but will have an enhanced focus on “CME Characteristics” of the company. These characteristics are: CME context requirements in exchange listing Thinking connectively Distributive intelligence Trend identification Self- organizing collectives
    44. 44. 44 All the important players in the CME ecosystem will work together to create a virtuous cycle of innovation funding and liquidity Key players Investors •Community banks •Angel investors •Equity investors (institutional and individuals) •Relaxed investment criteria due to business inter- connections Entrepreneurs •Develop company with view towards listing •Encourage transparency right from the start •Continue relationship- based business until listing Economic developers •Develop incentives to promote entrepreneurship •Encourage local expertise •Incentivize funding sources and encourage individual investors •Attract outside investors Chambers of commerce •Play “SEC type” role •Develop initial listing requirements which are common nationwide •Add CME elements to listing requirements (important)
    45. 45. Each CME Region will be interconnected with other regions and will enable knowledge sharing and distributive thinking Regional level inter-connections Local funding source 1 Accelerator, VC, Crowdfunding, Banks Regional Start-up 2 Local Start-up 2 Local Start-up 3 Local funding source 3 Accelerator, VC, Crowdfunding, Banks Local funding source 2 Accelerator, VC, Crowdfunding, Banks Regional funding source Large Accelerator, Large VC, Crowdfunding, Regional Banks Regional Start-up 1 Local Start-up 4 Local Junior exchange 1 Local Junior exchange 2 Local Junior exchange 3 Regional public stock exchange CME REGION 1 Local Start-up 6 Investors Investors Investors Investors Investors Investors Investors Area boundary Collaboration Funding Liquidity CME REGION 3 CME REGION 2
    46. 46. Conclusion  Financing start-ups in the context of CME will involve some evolutionary changes on the funding side and revolutionary efforts on the liquidity side  Accelerators, traditional venture capital, crowd-funding platforms are providing enhanced breadth to the funding side  Establishment of online junior exchanges will facilitate higher liquidity and transparency levels  Success of the above proposal will depend on:  Smart connected systems for information sharing and collaborative thinking  Inter-connected nature of investors and trend identification on a larger level between CME Regions  Implementation will vary by the development of particular regions:  Regions with highly developed funding ecosystem will require a liquidity medium via the junior exchanges  Other regions will have to develop a funding ecosystem first There are numerous existing sources of funding and will continue to grow through the JOBS Act. Junior exchanges will facilitate exits for these startups.
    47. 47. Session Summary  Economic Trends and The Middle Class  Capacity Building for Transformational Community Development  A New Approach for Economic and Workforce Development  New Methods of Financing Economic Growth and Job Creation
    48. 48. Q&A
    49. 49. Contact Jim Damicis Senior Vice President Camoin Associates jim@camoinassociates.com camoinassociates.com Rupam Shrivastava Director ePlanet Capital Rupam@alum.mit.edu eplanetcapital.com Virginia Gibbs President/CEO Fayette Chamber of Commerce president@fayettechamber.org FayetteChamber.org
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