The best suited powertrain technology for cars should be chosen depending on miles driven per year and type of usage (more or less highway and urban). The ideal powertrain solution is only for a certain set of driving style and usage a gasoline/electric hybrid powertrain. For others a straight diesel powertrain, a gasoline powertrain or a diesle/electric powertrain are the best solutions.

1. Business opportunities because the
solution is more than a hybrid
Detroit, MI – April 14, 2008
08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 1

2. Renewable energy sources have become a must
World fossil fuel energy reserves – 2008
Reserves 39 61 145 80
(years at
current
production
level)
Oil Natural Gas Coal Fossil Fuels
Weighted Average
Source: BP report, Roland Berger analysis 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 2

3. Gas prices are expected to remain high
Forecasted WTI crude oil price development to 2020 (real USD 2006 per barrel)
USD/bl
135.00
Barclays
120.00 September 2007
WTI crude: USD 80/bbl
105 00
105.00
CERA 2
Goldman Sachs
90.00 Merril Lynch
Russia
EIA Mexico
75.00 Deutsche Bank CERA 1
Saudi Arabia CERA 3
60.00
45.00 IEA forecast (WEO 2006)
EIA forecast (IEO 2007)
30.00
15.00
0.00
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, EIA International Energy Outlook, Ministry of
Finance of selected countries, MEES, Samba 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 3

4. Several polluters should be considered in today's
discussion
Source of global CO2 emissions 2007
Global CO2 emissions 2007 (%) Anthropogenic CO2 emissions (%)
Total: 800 Gt/year Total: 28 Gt/year
25.0%
25 0%
23.0%
Soil
19.0%
27
Vegetation 15.0%
27
Anthropogenic
3.5 CO2 emissions
(%) 6.0% 5.5%
Combustion <1
3.0%
of biomass 2.0% 1.5%
41.5 Power Domestic Industry Comb- Trucks Pass- Air traffic Other Ships on
Oceans plants fuel and ustion of enger traffic open sea
small biomass cars
consu-
mers
In Europe: Road transport ~ 20%, passenger cars ~ 12%
Source: VDI, EU 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 4

5. Policies in all regions are focused on reducing
emissions
(g CO2/km)
USA
Canada
Australia California
China
EU
Japan
Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 5

6. Hybrid concepts reduce CO2 emissions
CO2 savings of hybrid concepts
Potential CO2 savings (%)
Full hybrid
Mild hybrid
Micro hybrid
New
develop-
ments
150 Installed
electrical
power
Functions (kW)
• E-Recuperation • E-Boost • Electric driving
(limited) • E-Recuperation • E-Boost
• Start-Stop • Start-Stop • E-Recuperation
• Start-Stop
Source: Ricardo, TNO, IEEP, Roland Berger 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 6

7. Full hybrids especially help reduce emissions for
higher-weight vehicles
CO2 emission1) (g/km) per vehicle by weight
Diesel-Hybrid as full hybrid
Diesel-
hybrid
forecast
based on
cost-benefit
assumptions
1) CO2 emissions according to NEDC
Source: IAV 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 7

8. A full hybrid vehicle currently costs about USD
6,000 more than a non-hybrid
Cost – CO2 impact ratio hybrid systems 2006
Potential CO2 savings2)
(g/km)
Full hybrid
Mild hybrid
Micro hybrid
Cost per vehicle
(USD '000)
1) ICE: Internal combustion engine , 2) Medium size vehicle (e.g. VW Golf)
Source: Ricardo, Roland Berger 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 8

9. To reduce CO2 emissions focus should be on
reduction of road resistance
Energy transformation of today's vehicles in NEDC
Comments
Fuel - 100%
Cooling
Exhau • Direct energy loss in combustion
st gas
system
– 45.5%
–
Mechanical
– 31.5% engines accounts for about 68%
23.0%
Gearbox
– 1.6%
%
of total losses
Accessorie
Heat loss to radiator Oil pump
– 0.5% • Losses from disposal of
s – 4.1%
– 18.7%
Charging – 1.9%
Water pump
Convection and
– 0.3%
Power steering
energy/heat of the engine
radiation
– 3.2%
– 1.9% through cooling system (2/3) and
Warm up
Residual heat 26.8% Alternator exhaust gas (1/3)
Road – 0.6%
at resistance
end of test
– 23.6%
– 25.8% • Out of 32% of mechanical energy
Charge air – 1.1%
Battery transformations only 8.5% are
Electrical
Intercooler – 0.8% Devices used for driving
– 0.9%
Thermal losses in
Rolling
exhaust pipes – 2.6%
resistance • Energy losses from braking
– 11.0%
Thermal losses
in catalyst – 2.6%
account for only 7.7% of total
Air resistance
– 6.4% energy losses
Exhaust gas Acceleration
heat losses – (Braking energy
losses
15.8% – 7.7%)
– 8.5%
Source: AVL, Roland Berger 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 9

10. Most of the CO2 emission savings in hybrids
result from better operating point adjustments
Fuel consumption/CO2 analysis of Lexus Rx 400h full hybrid
URBAN (Avg. 16 mph) INTERURBAN (Avg. 26 mph) FREEWAY (Avg. 76 mph)
CO2 [g/miles] CO2 [g/miles] CO2 [g/miles]
100% 8%
640 4% 30% 640 640
100% 1% 1% 0% 98%
100% 4% 5% 20%
58%
320 320 71% 320
0 0 0
Bench- Start- Recupe- Optimize Rx 400h Bench- Start- Recupe- Optimize Rx 400h Bench- Start- Recupe- Optimize Rx 400h
mark stop ration operating mark stop ration operating mark stop ration operating
vehicle point vehicle point vehicle point
• Hybrids have no impact on reducing rolling friction, drag coefficient and vehicle weight
• Powertrain needs to be optimized as a system
• Hybrids with e-boost function pave the way for downsizing
Source: TU Darmstadt 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 10

11. If a car were a house (1/2)
A × JT
Energy consumption =
R
Energy is saved by:
• Thermal insulation
(RL)
and by
• Controlling the
thermostat ( TA)
• Build smaller houses
(A A)
08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 11

12. If a car were a house (2/2)
Energy is saved by:
• More efficient powertrains
and by
• Driving less, slower and more
constantly
• Lighter and smaller cars
08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 12

13. Fuel consumption is a function of vehicle
attributes and powertrain technologies
Importance of attributes relative to annual mileage and driving style
Freeway
Road resistance
Aerodynamics
Weight/kinetic energy recovery
Powertrain size Powertrain technology
Multi-speed transmission
e
Road resistance
DRIVING
STYLE
Weight
Kinetic energy recovery providing
Kinetic energy recovery
electric power
Efficient low-range transmission
Urban
Low MILEAGE High
Powertrain technology
Price
Importance of attributes
08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 13

14. Best vehicle types depend on annual distance
driven and driving conditons
Vehicle styles best suited to each driving style
Freeway
Low-tech, Non-hybrid,
aerodynamic, aerodynamic,
gasoline- 4-cylinder sedan
powered car
DRIVING
STYLE
Low-tech,
gasoline-
Lightweight,
powered, micro-
diesel/
hybrid,
hybrid vehicle
lightweight
vehicle
Urban
Low MILEAGE High
08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 14

15. Electric vehicle will be the next logical step from
hybrids
Low or zero-emission technologies and examples
Electric Vehicle (EV)
with "ICE range Battery Fuel Cell
Technology Hybrids extender" EV EV
Examples Micro Mild Full
Start-Stop
St t St E-Boost
EB t E-Drive
EDi E-Drive
EDi
Smart Civic IMA Prius GM E- Tesla FCX
Flex concept
Potential 3-4% < 15% < 20% < 100% 100% 100%1) ?
CO2
reduction
Range
E-Motor 0 0 6-31 124-249 200-400
(miles)
Pure Electric Vehicles
1) If one regards total energy balance, CO2 reduction potential is significantly smaller than 100%
Source: Roland Berger Research 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 15 15

16. By 2015 battery driven EVs will grasp a significant
market share
40% of world population will live in cities
(>1 million people) & California will
require a share of Zero-Emission-
vehicles in fleet
Battery technology improvements (will) ELECTRIC
provide sufficient range & costs will VEHICLES
come down
New market players will be on the
market with electric cars & increase the
pressure on the OEMs
Source: Roland Berger 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 16

17. Hydrogen powered Electric Vehicles will not play
a significant role before 2020
Four major stoppers for the success of hydrogen as the future fuel have been identified
1. Infrastructure to supply the fleet just in the US will cost over 500 USD billion
2.
2 Hydrogen price at the filling station will cost at least twice that of gasoline
3. End user technologies such as fuel cells won't be market competitive by
2020
4. Other competing technologies such as PHEVs1) and BEVs2) offering today
better CO2 emissions levels at a market competitive price and with lower
investment requirements will already be established in the market – and may
"close the door for FCEVs3)"
1) PHEV = Plug In Hybrid Vehicle, 2) BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle, 3) FCEV = Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
Source: Fuel Cell Vehicles, US Department of Commerce, Argonne National Laboratory 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 17

18. ZEV are at least 2 times more efficient than fuel
cell cars
Overview of energy efficiency from Well-to-Wheel comparison for hydrogen and
electricity
Hydrogen Well-to-Wheel efficiency Electricity Well-to-Wheel efficiency
100 20 100 8
10
4 5
18 8
69
27
3 28
Electr. H2 H2 H2 Fuel Electr. Energy Electr. Power Battery Li-ion Electr. Energy
Well Prod. Transp. Compre Cell Drive left Well lines charger Battery Drive left
ssion Train Train
Source: Roland Berger 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 18

19. Business opportunities are abundant because the
solution is more than a hybrid
Technology development and supply of:
Efficient DiesOtto
Efficient gas engines Efficient diesel engines
engines
Electric motors and Light weight AWD
Efficient transmissions
EMS capabilities
Communication/
Light weight body Integration,
…
structures vehicle/vehicle and
vehicle/infrastructure
08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 19

20. Business opportunities because the
solution is more than a hybrid
Detroit, MI – April 14, 2008
08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 20