!"#$%"&()*+$,--./"#0)1234)5.(5)(678.()9.5:..");<<<)%"&);<<=>)2()5?.)+.8@78-%"6.)7@)7,8)(.67"&%8A)  (6?77$)+,+B$()8.%$$A)B"...
Educational expenditure                                   125                                                PISA maths   ...
!!"#$%#&()(*&+,#-.$-#-.+#(*/.-#.012#3+1-4+%$1# .$&#-.+#5($&&#1+67#-0#80-+#-.+#9":;#</(+&#    =.+1#-.+>#&.0=#-.$-#01#.*&#=$...
%&(!)*+,-,!.&/!01!2134516!789513*!:)*+!;<*=!                                          0.5                                 ...
?9513*!01!.&/!7@@!ABC=!)*+,-,!89513*!01!%&(!7BB!D!B@=!!                                                      E!
Data issues(1) Change target population     - Wales     - Year 10 / year 11 pupils(2) Change of test month     - April 200...
0.45                          G5H!65I5!Mean test score (international z-score)                                           0...
0.5      (6J-,I<*1I!K:+!89513*!01!I5+3*I!L:L-45;:1!                                          0.45Mean test score (internat...
0.5          N!516!56J-,I<*1I!K:+!89513*!:K!I*,I!<:1I9!                                          0.45Mean test score (inte...
0.5            N!516!56J-,I<*1I!K:+!1:1!!+*,L:1,*!                                          0.45Mean test score (internati...
?:184-,0:1,!•! I5I*<*1I,!,-33*,;13!I95I!2134516!0,!OL4-<<*;13!6:H1P!   01I*+15;:154!+51Q013,!<5R!,0<L4R!1:I!S*!I+-*T!•! .9...
1234)B")5?.)E,5,8.)•! ‘PISA for schools’ tests becoming available•! New domains (e.g. problem solving, financial literacy)...
4++."&BF)
Educational achievement is low inEngland compared to East Asia….….but this is due to what happens          before age 10  ...
England a long way behind East Asia         at age 15 /16……                       Average PISA                        math...
….but we are just as far behind at  1           age 9/100.80.60.4       Hong Kong       Japan                             ...
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John Jerrim | What can we really learn from PISA?

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John Jerrim | What can we really learn from PISA?

  1. 1. !"#$%"&()*+$,--./"#0)1234)5.(5)(678.()9.5:..");<<<)%"&);<<=>)2()5?.)+.8@78-%"6.)7@)7,8)(.67"&%8A) (6?77$)+,+B$()8.%$$A)B")8.$%/C.) &.6$B".D)! "!
  2. 2. Educational expenditure 125 PISA maths GCSE % A-C 120Index value (base = 100 in 2000) 115 110 105 100 95 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 #!
  3. 3. !!"#$%#&()(*&+,#-.$-#-.+#(*/.-#.012#3+1-4+%$1# .$&#-.+#5($&&#1+67#-0#80-+#-.+#9":;#</(+&# =.+1#-.+>#&.0=#-.$-#01#.*&#=$-6.#-.+# &-$1,$(,#0?#+,6$@01#=.*6.#=$&#0A+(+,#-0#>01/#)+0)4+#*1#-.*&#601-(>#,+64*1+,#(+4$@B+# -0#0(#*1-+(1$@01$4#60%)+@-0(&2#C*-+($6>D# ,0=1E#1%+($6>D#,0=1E#&6*+16+D#,0=1F#?$*4D# ?$*4D#?$*42G#H*6.$+4#30B+#I:+6(+-$(>#0?#:-$-+#?0(#J,6$@01K# $!
  4. 4. %&(!)*+,-,!.&/!01!2134516!789513*!:)*+!;<*=! 0.5 England PISA Maths 0.4 England TIMSS MathsMean test score (international z-score) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -0.1 >!
  5. 5. ?9513*!01!.&/!7@@!ABC=!)*+,-,!89513*!01!%&(!7BB!D!B@=!! E!
  6. 6. Data issues(1) Change target population - Wales - Year 10 / year 11 pupils(2) Change of test month - April 2000 / 2003 - November 2006 / 2009(3) Non - response F!
  7. 7. 0.45 G5H!65I5!Mean test score (international z-score) 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 C!
  8. 8. 0.5 (6J-,I<*1I!K:+!89513*!01!I5+3*I!L:L-45;:1! 0.45Mean test score (international z-score) 0.4 Estimate 1 0.35 Estimate 2 0.3 0.25 0.2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 M!
  9. 9. 0.5 N!516!56J-,I<*1I!K:+!89513*!:K!I*,I!<:1I9! 0.45Mean test score (international z-score) 0.4 Estimate 1 Estimate 2 0.35 Estimate 3 0.3 0.25 0.2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 @!
  10. 10. 0.5 N!516!56J-,I<*1I!K:+!1:1!!+*,L:1,*! 0.45Mean test score (international z-score) 0.4 Estimate 1 Estimate 2 Estimate 3 0.35 Estimate 4 0.3 0.25 0.2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 "B!
  11. 11. ?:184-,0:1,!•! I5I*<*1I,!,-33*,;13!I95I!2134516!0,!OL4-<<*;13!6:H1P! 01I*+15;:154!+51Q013,!<5R!,0<L4R!1:I!S*!I+-*T!•! .9*!6*8401*!,**1!SR!2134516!01!I9*!%&(!01I*+15;:154! +51Q013,!0,!1:IU!01!<R!:L010:1U!,I5;,;8544R!+:S-,I!*1:-39!I:! S5,*!L-S408!L:408R!-L:1T!•! .9*!6*8401*!01!%&(!I*,I!,8:+*,!6:*,!1:I!,-33*,I!I95I!I9*! V5S:-+!3:)*+1<*1IW,!01)*,I<*1I!01!*6-85;:1!H5,!5!H5,I*! :K!<:1*RU!J-,I!5,!I9*!5,8*16*18R!01!.&/!+51Q013,!6:*,!1:I! L+:)*!0I!H5,!H*44!,L*1IT!!•! &16**6U!*)*1!0K!I9*!65I5!H*+*!:K!9039!*1:-39!X-540IR!I:! 588-+5I*4R!*,;<5I*!89513*,!:)*+!;<*U!,-89!,I5I*<*1I,! ,**<!I:!K544!01I:!I9*!I+5L!:K!8:1K-,013!8:++*45;:1!H0I9! 85-,5;:1T! ""!
  12. 12. 1234)B")5?.)E,5,8.)•! ‘PISA for schools’ tests becoming available•! New domains (e.g. problem solving, financial literacy)•! Hope to build better engagement with teachers / schools•! TALIS survey: A cross-national study of teachers•! ‘Longitudinal PISA’ ! Follow children to see what they do
  13. 13. 4++."&BF)
  14. 14. Educational achievement is low inEngland compared to East Asia….….but this is due to what happens before age 10 ">!
  15. 15. England a long way behind East Asia at age 15 /16…… Average PISA math score Shanghai 600 Singapore 562 Hong Kong 555 Korea 546 Chinese Taipei 543 Japan 529 Macao China 525 England 492 "E!
  16. 16. ….but we are just as far behind at 1 age 9/100.80.60.4 Hong Kong Japan Y5L!S*IH**1!0.2 2134516!516! Singapore 25,I!(,05! UK 6:*,!"75) 0 H06*1! S*IH**1! @Z"B!516! Age 9/10 Age 13/14 Age 15/16 "EZ"F!-0.2

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