OReilly Radar

Web Meets World Tim O’Reilly O’Reilly Media, Inc. www.oreilly.com Web 2.0 Expo Berlin October 21, 2008

Something here about end of Web 2.0 • web2.Over 2

Deep trends behind Web 2.0 • The internet as platform • Harnessing collective intelligence • Data as the “Intel Inside” • Software above the level of a single device • Software as a service 3

Deep trends behind Web 2.0 • The internet as platform • Harnessing collective intelligence • Data as the “Intel Inside” • Software above the level of a single device • Software as a service These are not short-term trends! 3

Deep trends behind Web 2.0 • The internet as platform • Harnessing collective intelligence • Data as the “Intel Inside” • Software above the level of a single device • Software as a service These are not short-term trends! Do you think we’re done yet? 3

Winners and Losers • Winners – Cloud computing – SAAS applications like Google Apps – Open Source software – Companies delivering valuable services to business or consumers – Breakthroughs in collective intelligence – Entrepreneurs who believe so much in what they are doing that they stick to it • Losers – Me-too startups fueled by easy money – Venture capitalists who invested in them 4

6 • Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/

Not an investment bubble - a reality bubble! • Financial crises • Worst income inequality since the Gilded Age • Oil price shock • Global warming • Decline in science literacy & education • Water scarcity • Exotic diseases • Aging populations and soaring health costs • Decline in US and European economic competitiveness and innovation 7 • Dysfunctional political system

9 • Photo by corsiworld: http://flickr.com/photos/ 88506093@N00/2680675316

It’s tough to predict the future 10

Scenarios for Oil Drilling: 1980–90 Active Rigs (Yearly Averages) Forecasts by Major Oilﬁeld Equipment Group

Scenarios for Oil Drilling: 1980–90 Active Rigs (Yearly Averages) Actual Forecasts by Major Oilﬁeld Equipment Group

Scenario Planning Singularity Politics Visionary As Usual leadership Global Economic & Environmental Collapse 15

Robust Strategies Singularity Politics Visionary As Usual leadership Global Economic & Environmental Collapse 16

Robust Strategy #1 Work on stuff that matters! 17

To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices No Climate Change Yes Climate Change Invest Money Invest Money Invent new technology Save 1B Lives We Act Reduce reliance on oil Invent new technology Reduce reliance on oil Life goes on Billions die We Do NOT Act Large wars Horrible famine and drought End of world as we know it Total economic collapse Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI February 2008 Kevin Surace 41

Pascal’s Wager 20

How can I make any difference? 22

quot;A victory small enough to be organized is too small to be decisive.quot; --Eliot Janeway, Struggle for Survival 23

Tracking Illegal Deforestation in Brazil with Google Earth Source: New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/world/americas/19brazil.html 26

Great challenge = Great opportunity 33

The Berlin Airlift • 2.3 Million tons from 277,569 total flights • One flight landing every 2 1/2 minutes, 24 hours a day, for 15 months • At peak, one landing per minute • Planes unloaded by local residents - volunteers -10 tons in 10 minutes! • Development of modern methods of air traffic control • Companies such as Boeing, Lockheed • Ultimately, the basis for air freight companies like FedEx 34

Compliments on extremadura etc 38

Robust Strategy #2 Create more value than you capture 51

“Visionary companies ... are not afraid to make bold commitments to ‘Big Hairy Audacious Goals’” --Jim Collins and Jerry Porras, Built to Last 52

IBM’s original forecast for the PC 53

“A PC on every desk and in every home” 55

“The PC is just a toy.” 56

In 1998, search had largely been written off as a business opportunity... 57

“Organize all the world’s information” 58

Do you think we’re done yet? 59

http://en.oreilly.com	234
http://llamadavirtual.wordpress.com	207
http://www.thewebpitch.com	207
http://digiredo.wordpress.com	109
http://brainberry.com.ua	77
http://www.web2expo.com	71
http://flabbergastedmarketing.wordpress.com	36
http://www.excitingcommerce.com	35
http://www.marketingfacts.nl	33
http://brainberry.ua	29
http://blog.slideshare.net	28
http://web-2-geek.blogspot.com	24
http://www.centrestage.de	18
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http://www.olafmolenaar.com	13
http://www.elsua.net	11
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http://www.trentinnovation.typepad.com	10
http://www.brainberry.ua	8
http://jisi.dreamblog.jp	6
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OReilly Radar

by Web 2.0 Expo on Oct 22, 2008

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