New Perspectives on the Future of Learning Oh Wow! Oh No! CEdMA Fall Conference Boston, MA USA October 25, 2007 Wayne Hodgins Strategic Futurist Autodesk Inc.

[email_address] www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins Strategic Futurist President & Co-Founder Learnativity.org Chair, IEEE Learning Technology Standards Committee Learning Object Metadata 0 Strategic Advisor

Seeing Patterns & Trends:

WARNING: Time Warp Ahead!!

It’s ALL Yours! For Questions & Comments please contact: [email_address] For slides, blogs, podcasts and more: www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins Slides available @ http://www.slideshare.net/WayneH/

For Questions & Comments please contact:

[email_address]

For slides, blogs, podcasts and more:

www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins

Slides available @ http://www.slideshare.net/WayneH/

www.CreativeCommons.org

Wayne’s Game Show Oh WOW! Oh NO! OK; what NOW?

Oh WOW!

Oh NO!

OK; what NOW?

Oh WOW!! Future Trends, Patterns, Directions & Disruptions headed your way….

A new perspective is worth 80 IQ points - Alan Kay Prepare to get much smarter!

New Perspectives: How many IQ points would you like? Value Propositions vs Activities Snowflake Effect 3C 2 = C-ing the Future Look to the Right The Future is a Monstrous Mashup The power of Un The Long Tail of LET (Learning Education & Training) The NewOld workforce Flapping vs Flying

Value Propositions vs Activities

Snowflake Effect

3C 2 = C-ing the Future

Look to the Right

The Future is a Monstrous Mashup

The power of Un

The Long Tail of LET (Learning Education & Training)

The NewOld workforce

Flapping vs Flying

Disruptive Innovation! There’s one in YOUR future!! And another one right behind it!

There’s one in YOUR future!!

And another one right behind it!

Perfecting the Irrelevant?!! Are we all very very very busy doing this???

Are we all

very

very

very

busy doing this???

How to Avoid Perfecting the Irrelevant: Don’t confuse ACTIVITIES with VALUE PROPOSITION! Ask WHAT are the true threats to your VP? (not activity) Spend time discovering YOUR Value Proposition: You personally Your team Your department Your entire organization Your market/industry Look for your Value Proposition in the discard pile

Don’t confuse ACTIVITIES with VALUE PROPOSITION!

Ask WHAT are the true threats to your VP? (not activity)

Spend time discovering YOUR Value Proposition:

You personally

Your team

Your department

Your entire organization

Your market/industry

Look for your Value Proposition in the discard pile

A new perspective is worth 80 IQ points - Alan Kay Prepare to get much smarter!

The Snowflake Effect Unique is What We Seek!

The Snowflake Effect: UNIQUE is what we seek! You’re a Snowflake More so, every situation and every project is unique Always has been, always will be

You’re a Snowflake

More so, every situation and every project is unique

Always has been, always will be

The Snowflake Effect: If this is SO obvious If this has always been And always will be Then why do we live in a world designed for the opposite?

If this is SO obvious

If this has always been

And always will be

Then why do we live in a world designed for the opposite?

The Snowflake Effect: The ideal is getting to “just right *”… Just the right CONTENT , to Just the right PERSON , with Just the right PARTNERS , at Just the right TIME , on Just the right DEVICE , in Just the right CONTEXT , and Just the right WAY ……… * not to be confused with perfection!!

Just the right CONTENT , to

Just the right PERSON , with

Just the right PARTNERS , at

Just the right TIME , on

Just the right DEVICE , in

Just the right CONTEXT , and

Just the right WAY ………

* not to be confused with perfection!!

The Snowflake Effect M a S S P e R S O N A L i Z A T i O N It’s not about “e” it’s about me!! Personalized Learning Experiences for every person every day all 6.6 billion of us!! (and counting) Just for me and just right: On demand, adaptive Markets of one: Billions of Markets “ Capitalizing on EVERY Teachable Moment”

M a S S P e R S O N A L i Z A T i O N

It’s not about “e” it’s about me!!

Personalized Learning Experiences for every person every day

all 6.6 billion of us!! (and counting)

Just for me and just right:

On demand, adaptive

Markets of one: Billions of Markets

“ Capitalizing on EVERY Teachable Moment”

Premature Arrival of the Future The future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed! - William Gibson The art of the possible in practice today!

Pandora and the Music Genome Project

last.fm

Mass personalization: What’s New? Unique means unique! Uniqueness for the rest of us. The genie is out of the bottle, there is no turning back. It’s now possible And more and more know it and are demanding it

Unique means unique!

Uniqueness for the rest of us.

The genie is out of the bottle, there is no turning back.

It’s now possible

And more and more know it and are demanding it

Applying the Snowflake Effect Uniqueness Not only are YOU a snowflake but so too is every moment and situation a unique snowflake The ultimate competitive advantage? Mass Personalization Just the right, the new definition of perfection Pluralization of Personalization; applies to teams, groups, orgs Feedback loops Explicit Implicit inferred MC 3 : Mass Contribution Mass Customization Mass Collaboration DIY/BYO Assemblies Mashups and Legos are the models

Uniqueness

Not only are YOU a snowflake but so too is every moment and situation a unique snowflake

The ultimate competitive advantage?

Mass Personalization

Just the right, the new definition of perfection

Pluralization of Personalization; applies to teams, groups, orgs

Feedback loops

Explicit

Implicit

inferred

MC 3 :

Mass Contribution

Mass Customization

Mass Collaboration

DIY/BYO Assemblies

Mashups and Legos are the models

New Perspectives: How many IQ points would you like? 3mC 2 = C-ing the Future Look to the Right The Long Tail of LET (Learning Education & Training) The NewOld workforce

3mC 2 = C-ing the Future

Look to the Right

The Long Tail of LET (Learning Education & Training)

The NewOld workforce

3mC 2 = C-ing the Future Content x Competencies x Context X Mass (Collaboration x Contribution x Customization)

C -ing the Future: C3 C ontent, C ompetencies C ontext LEARNING & PERFORMANCE CONTENT CONTEXT COMPETENCE

C -ing the Future: MC3 M ass C ontribution M ass C ustomization M ass C ollaboration  MASHUPS CONTRIBTION COLLABORATION CUSTOMIZATION

Universal Object Model? Principle Fact Process Overview Procedure Text Audio Summary Concept ENABLING Objective E nabling L earning O bject T erminal L earning O bject Animation Simulation illustration TERMINAL Objective Common Content Application Specific Profiles Repurposed with Permission: W.Hodgins ©1992 Learnativity “ Raw” Data & Media Elements Information Blocks CONTENT ASSETS 0 SkillObject

Universal Object Model? Principle Fact Process Overview Procedure Text Audio Summary Concept Principle Process Concept Procedure Fact Overview Summary Objective E nabling L earning O bject T erminal L earning O bject Collections ( Courses , Stories,) Animation Simulation illustration Objective Theme Enabling Objective Terminal Objective Common Content Application Specific Profiles Repurposed with Permission: W.Hodgins ©1992 Learnativity “ Raw” Data & Media Elements Information Blocks CONTENT ASSETS 0 SkillObject CONTEXT ReUSABILITY

“ Individualized” Career Development The Navy “5 Vector Model” Universal Quals Apprentice Journeyman Master Recruit EM Quals First line Leader Foundational Leader Primary Leader Advanced Leader Command Leader Executive Leader Platform Career Options EM Gas Turbine 5VM (DDG-51) Engineering Quals PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT LEADERSHIP CERTS | QUALS PERFORMANCE Industry Certs Personal Dev SO Personal Dev SO Personal Dev SO Lifelong Learning Lifelong Learning Lifelong Learning Master S/O Journeyman S/O Apprentice S/O E-1 E-2 E-3 E-4 E-5 E-6 E-7 E-8 E-9 Recruit S/O EM2 Sciulli Universal Quals Engineering Quals EM Quals Universal Quals Engineering Quals EM Quals Industry Certs Industry Certs Industry Certs Apprentice Positions Journeyman Positions Master Positions Selected Electricians All Electricians

Where to Look Next? To the RIGHT!    

The RIGHT BRAIN Economy “ The Right Brain will rule the future” - Daniel Pink, A Whole New Mind

The RIGHT BRAINED ECONOMY Designing from the Right Side of the Brain: The left brain is necessary but NOT sufficient Automation taking over most of the left side roles and jobs The rising “ Economy of Abundance ” putting a whole new emphasis on design and in particular on the appeal to the senses such as with “emotional design”

The left brain is necessary but NOT sufficient

Automation taking over most of the left side roles and jobs

The rising “ Economy of Abundance ” putting a whole new emphasis on design and in particular on the appeal to the senses such as with “emotional design”

The Ambidextrous Mind LEFT Brain Sequential reasoning Analysis Text Numbers RIGHT Brain Holistic reasoning Synthesis Pattern recognition Context Images Interpret emotions and non verbal

LEFT Brain

Sequential reasoning

Analysis

Text

Numbers

RIGHT Brain

Holistic reasoning

Synthesis

Pattern recognition

Context

Images

Interpret emotions and non verbal

Whole New Mind: Right brain economy For more info see: http://www.danpink.com/aboutwnm.php Interview of Daniel Pink by Elliott Masie http://www.learning2007.com/university/2005/8/10/dan-pink-interview-a-whole-mind-audio-podcast-text-transcript-new.html “ A Whole New Mind for a Flat World”, article by Richard M. Felder, North Carolina State University http://www.ncsu.edu/felder-public/Columns/Flatmind.pdf See also from Don Norman: The Design of Everyday Things Emotional Design

For more info see:

http://www.danpink.com/aboutwnm.php

Interview of Daniel Pink by Elliott Masie http://www.learning2007.com/university/2005/8/10/dan-pink-interview-a-whole-mind-audio-podcast-text-transcript-new.html

“ A Whole New Mind for a Flat World”, article by Richard M. Felder, North Carolina State University http://www.ncsu.edu/felder-public/Columns/Flatmind.pdf

See also from Don Norman:

The Design of Everyday Things

Emotional Design

Blog: thelongtail.com

Blog: thelongtail.com

Long Tail “ The future of business is selling less of more” The economics of abundance Creative squandering Don’t do one thing; do it all, Don’t store some; store it all; don’t sell one piece of content, sell it all Market of one is the biggest of all? The “getting small” of business: Combine enough non hits on the Long Tail and you've got a market bigger than the hits! "The biggest money is in the smallest sales.“ Barnes & Noble carries 130,000 books More than half Amazon sales from OUTSIDE top 130,000 The market for books not sold in the bookstore is larger than those that are! Google makes most of its money from small advertisers eBay the same Children today will grow up never knowing the meaning of “out of print”

“ The future of business is selling less of more”

The economics of abundance

Creative squandering

Don’t do one thing; do it all, Don’t store some; store it all; don’t sell one piece of content, sell it all

Market of one is the biggest of all?

The “getting small” of business:

Combine enough non hits on the Long Tail and you've got a market bigger than the hits!

"The biggest money is in the smallest sales.“

Barnes & Noble carries 130,000 books

More than half Amazon sales from OUTSIDE top 130,000

The market for books not sold in the bookstore is larger than those that are!

Google makes most of its money from small advertisers

eBay the same

Children today will grow up never knowing the meaning of “out of print”

Scarcity Abundance With thanks to Chris Anderson see his blog www.longtail.com

Anatomy of the Long Tail Courtesy Wired magazine

Courtesy Wired magazine

Long Tail Learning: Extending the spectrum of information students discover Finding (rather than searching for) “just the right” content at just the right time and in just the right context Deeply contextual Imagine having a “Pandora” for all forms of content

Extending the spectrum of information students discover

Finding (rather than searching for) “just the right” content at just the right time and in just the right context

Deeply contextual

Imagine having a “Pandora” for all forms of content

Living in a World of Exponential Change Prepare to be humbled! See this podcast and posting on Off Course – On Target for more details, examples, exercises and explanation

Exponential Growth source: www.kurzweilai.net

Exponential Growth of Human Lifespan: * Centenarians = people over 100 years old *

The NewOld Workforce What if they don’t retire? Retirement redefined Recruitment & retention of ALL ages Experience capture, share & reuse

What if they don’t retire?

Retirement redefined

Recruitment & retention

of ALL ages

Experience capture, share & reuse

Oh No!! Suggestions on Some Strategies for Success

So what? Why should YOU care? What is the effect on you as the following (as we know them) become irrelevant: Software applications (watch widgets) Hardware and most hard goods Org charts What do the following look like as this happens: Structured training; courses, lessons, etc. Courseware Manuals and docs Hiring & onboarding

What is the effect on you as the following (as we know them) become irrelevant:

Software applications (watch widgets)

Hardware and most hard goods

Org charts

What do the following look like as this happens:

Structured training; courses, lessons, etc.

Courseware

Manuals and docs

Hiring & onboarding

Strategic Suggestions: your choice The Future is a Monstrous Mashup Embrace the power of UN Metadata matters

The Future is a Monstrous Mashup

Embrace the power of UN

Metadata matters

The Future is a Monstrous & Marvelous M A S H u P ! Wayne Hodgins

Mashups: Current “techie” definitions A mash up is a website or web application that seamlessly combines content from more than one source into an integrated experience. Content used in mashups is typically sourced from a third party via a public interface or API . Other methods of sourcing content for mashups include Web feeds (e.g. RSS or Atom ) and JavaScript . Many people are experimenting with mashups using eBay, Amazon, Google, Windows Live, and Yahoos APIs. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mashup

A mash up is a website or web application that seamlessly combines content from more than one source into an integrated experience.

Content used in mashups is typically sourced from a third party via a public interface or API . Other methods of sourcing content for mashups include Web feeds (e.g. RSS or Atom ) and JavaScript .

Many people are experimenting with mashups using eBay, Amazon, Google, Windows Live, and Yahoos APIs.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mashup

That’s SOOOooooo yesterday Dad! Wayne’s new definition for Mashups: A mash up is a unique new assembly of pre-existing “objects”. (usually from more than one source)

Wayne’s new definition for Mashups:

A mash up is a unique new assembly of pre-existing “objects”. (usually from more than one source)

Mashups simplified: You already know the model Think Lego blocks!

EVERYTHING becomes a Mashup! Music, TV, video Infinite channels Content Wiki, blogs, aggregators, readers, CMS Searching/finding Tag Clouds Maps Events UNconferences Competencies, people Project based crowdsourcing Games & Simulations Alternate reality **NOT alternative or virtual realities

Music, TV, video

Infinite channels

Content

Wiki, blogs, aggregators, readers, CMS

Searching/finding

Tag Clouds

Maps

Events

UNconferences

Competencies, people

Project based crowdsourcing

Games & Simulations

Alternate reality

**NOT alternative or virtual realities

Mashups Some assembly required Design for DIY/BYO Applies to people too!

Some assembly required

Design for DIY/BYO

Applies to people too!

The Power of “Un” As in UNstructured, UNorganized, Unmanaged The formalization of informal learning? UN conference UN presentation Pecha Kucha UN learning UN games World Without Oil They lead to infinite and unique solutions!!!!

As in UNstructured, UNorganized, Unmanaged

The formalization of informal learning?

UN conference

UN presentation

Pecha Kucha

UN learning

UN games

World Without Oil

They lead to infinite and unique solutions!!!!

Metadata Matters Metadata based matrices vs fixed categories Automated Metadata Generation Attention metadata Attention.xml Metadata Schemas Medbiquitous Music Genome Project (Pandora.com) Contextual metadata

Metadata based matrices vs fixed categories

Automated Metadata Generation

Attention metadata

Attention.xml

Metadata Schemas

Medbiquitous

Music Genome Project (Pandora.com)

Contextual metadata

OK What do we do NOW???

Shift Your Thinking Smaller  Micro Time Size Modular (LEGO) Demographics groups  Unique individuals ProSumers  Tearners? Left  RIGHT (side of the brain) Managed, controlled  UN, emergent Plant grass first; pave later

Smaller  Micro

Time

Size

Modular (LEGO)

Demographics groups  Unique individuals

ProSumers  Tearners?

Left  RIGHT (side of the brain)

Managed, controlled  UN, emergent

Plant grass first; pave later

Design for: Mass personalization vs Mass Production DIY/BYO assemblies Uniqueness Categories  metadata STOP stuffing everything and everyone into a box! Think rePURPOSE vs reUSE Infinite scalability Capture, tag and publish: Knowledge, experience, skills Context Failures, discards FUN: it’s a feature not a bug

Mass personalization vs Mass Production

DIY/BYO assemblies

Uniqueness

Categories  metadata

STOP stuffing everything and everyone into a box!

Think rePURPOSE vs reUSE

Infinite scalability

Capture, tag and publish:

Knowledge, experience, skills

Context

Failures, discards

FUN: it’s a feature not a bug

Fun is a feature not a bug! The opposite of work isn’t play, it’s depression! Brian Sutton-Smith, University of Pennsylvania

The opposite of work isn’t play,

it’s depression!

Brian Sutton-Smith, University of Pennsylvania

Flapping vs Flying Innovation not replication!

Innovation not replication! Let’s stop “flapping” and replicating past artifacts It is NOT about flapping faster!! Let’s start thinking DIFFERENTLY !! How does this apply to YOU?!

Let’s stop “flapping”

and replicating past artifacts

It is NOT about flapping faster!!

Let’s start thinking

DIFFERENTLY !!

Thank You! For Questions & Comments please contact: [email_address] See “Off Course – On Target” for slides, podcasts, blogs and much more: www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins