New Perspectives on the Future of Learning


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slides from the keynote by Wayne Hodgins to the Computer Education Managers Association CEdMA Fall conference in Boston, MA on Oct. 25, 2007

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  • New Perspectives on the Future of Learning

    1. 1. New Perspectives on the Future of Learning Oh Wow! Oh No! CEdMA Fall Conference Boston, MA USA October 25, 2007 Wayne Hodgins Strategic Futurist Autodesk Inc.
    2. 2. [email_address] Strategic Futurist President & Co-Founder Chair, IEEE Learning Technology Standards Committee Learning Object Metadata 0 Strategic Advisor
    3. 3. Seeing Patterns & Trends:
    4. 4. WARNING: Time Warp Ahead!!
    5. 5. It’s ALL Yours! <ul><li>For Questions & Comments please contact: </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>For slides, blogs, podcasts and more: </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>Slides available @ </li></ul>
    6. 6.
    7. 7. Wayne’s Game Show <ul><li>Oh WOW! </li></ul><ul><li>Oh NO! </li></ul><ul><li>OK; what NOW? </li></ul>
    8. 8. Oh WOW!! Future Trends, Patterns, Directions & Disruptions headed your way….
    9. 9. A new perspective is worth 80 IQ points - Alan Kay Prepare to get much smarter!
    10. 10. New Perspectives: How many IQ points would you like? <ul><li>Value Propositions vs Activities </li></ul><ul><li>Snowflake Effect </li></ul><ul><li>3C 2 = C-ing the Future </li></ul><ul><li>Look to the Right </li></ul><ul><li>The Future is a Monstrous Mashup </li></ul><ul><li>The power of Un </li></ul><ul><li>The Long Tail of LET (Learning Education & Training) </li></ul><ul><li>The NewOld workforce </li></ul><ul><li>Flapping vs Flying </li></ul>
    11. 11. Disruptive Innovation! <ul><li>There’s one in YOUR future!! </li></ul><ul><li>And another one right behind it! </li></ul>
    12. 12. Perfecting the Irrelevant?!! <ul><li>Are we all </li></ul><ul><li>very </li></ul><ul><li>very </li></ul><ul><li>very </li></ul><ul><li>busy doing this??? </li></ul>
    13. 13. How to Avoid Perfecting the Irrelevant: <ul><li>Don’t confuse ACTIVITIES with VALUE PROPOSITION! </li></ul><ul><li>Ask WHAT are the true threats to your VP? (not activity) </li></ul><ul><li>Spend time discovering YOUR Value Proposition: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>You personally </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Your team </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Your department </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Your entire organization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Your market/industry </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Look for your Value Proposition in the discard pile </li></ul>
    14. 14. A new perspective is worth 80 IQ points - Alan Kay Prepare to get much smarter!
    15. 15. The Snowflake Effect Unique is What We Seek!
    16. 16. The Snowflake Effect: UNIQUE is what we seek! <ul><li>You’re a Snowflake </li></ul><ul><li>More so, every situation and every project is unique </li></ul><ul><li>Always has been, always will be </li></ul>
    17. 17. The Snowflake Effect: <ul><li>If this is SO obvious </li></ul><ul><li>If this has always been </li></ul><ul><li>And always will be </li></ul><ul><li>Then why do we live in a world designed for the opposite? </li></ul>
    18. 18. The Snowflake Effect: The ideal is getting to “just right *”… <ul><li>Just the right CONTENT , to </li></ul><ul><li>Just the right PERSON , with </li></ul><ul><li>Just the right PARTNERS , at </li></ul><ul><li>Just the right TIME , on </li></ul><ul><li>Just the right DEVICE , in </li></ul><ul><li>Just the right CONTEXT , and </li></ul><ul><li>Just the right WAY ……… </li></ul><ul><li>* not to be confused with perfection!! </li></ul>
    19. 19. The Snowflake Effect <ul><li>M a S S P e R S O N A L i Z A T i O N </li></ul><ul><li>It’s not about “e” it’s about me!! </li></ul><ul><li>Personalized Learning Experiences for every person every day </li></ul><ul><ul><li>all 6.6 billion of us!! (and counting) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Just for me and just right: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>On demand, adaptive </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Markets of one: Billions of Markets </li></ul><ul><li>“ Capitalizing on EVERY Teachable Moment” </li></ul>
    20. 20. Premature Arrival of the Future The future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed! - William Gibson The art of the possible in practice today!
    21. 21. Pandora and the Music Genome Project
    22. 22.
    23. 24. Mass personalization: What’s New? <ul><li>Unique means unique! </li></ul><ul><li>Uniqueness for the rest of us. </li></ul><ul><li>The genie is out of the bottle, there is no turning back. </li></ul><ul><li>It’s now possible </li></ul><ul><ul><li>And more and more know it and are demanding it </li></ul></ul>
    24. 25. Applying the Snowflake Effect <ul><li>Uniqueness </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not only are YOU a snowflake but so too is every moment and situation a unique snowflake </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The ultimate competitive advantage? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mass Personalization </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Just the right, the new definition of perfection </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pluralization of Personalization; applies to teams, groups, orgs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Feedback loops </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Explicit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Implicit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>inferred </li></ul></ul><ul><li>MC 3 : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mass Contribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mass Customization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mass Collaboration </li></ul></ul><ul><li>DIY/BYO Assemblies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mashups and Legos are the models </li></ul></ul>
    25. 26. New Perspectives: How many IQ points would you like? <ul><li>3mC 2 = C-ing the Future </li></ul><ul><li>Look to the Right </li></ul><ul><li>The Long Tail of LET (Learning Education & Training) </li></ul><ul><li>The NewOld workforce </li></ul>
    26. 27. 3mC 2 = C-ing the Future Content x Competencies x Context X Mass (Collaboration x Contribution x Customization)
    27. 28. C -ing the Future: C3 C ontent, C ompetencies C ontext LEARNING & PERFORMANCE CONTENT CONTEXT COMPETENCE
    28. 29. C -ing the Future: MC3 M ass C ontribution M ass C ustomization M ass C ollaboration  MASHUPS CONTRIBTION COLLABORATION CUSTOMIZATION
    29. 30. Universal Object Model? Principle Fact Process Overview Procedure Text Audio Summary Concept ENABLING Objective E nabling L earning O bject T erminal L earning O bject Animation Simulation illustration TERMINAL Objective Common Content Application Specific Profiles Repurposed with Permission: W.Hodgins ©1992 Learnativity “ Raw” Data & Media Elements Information Blocks CONTENT ASSETS 0 SkillObject
    30. 31. Universal Object Model? Principle Fact Process Overview Procedure Text Audio Summary Concept Principle Process Concept Procedure Fact Overview Summary Objective E nabling L earning O bject T erminal L earning O bject Collections ( Courses , Stories,) Animation Simulation illustration Objective Theme Enabling Objective Terminal Objective Common Content Application Specific Profiles Repurposed with Permission: W.Hodgins ©1992 Learnativity “ Raw” Data & Media Elements Information Blocks CONTENT ASSETS 0 SkillObject CONTEXT ReUSABILITY
    31. 32. “ Individualized” Career Development The Navy “5 Vector Model” Universal Quals Apprentice Journeyman Master Recruit EM Quals First line Leader Foundational Leader Primary Leader Advanced Leader Command Leader Executive Leader Platform Career Options EM Gas Turbine 5VM (DDG-51) Engineering Quals PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT LEADERSHIP CERTS | QUALS PERFORMANCE Industry Certs Personal Dev SO Personal Dev SO Personal Dev SO Lifelong Learning Lifelong Learning Lifelong Learning Master S/O Journeyman S/O Apprentice S/O E-1 E-2 E-3 E-4 E-5 E-6 E-7 E-8 E-9 Recruit S/O EM2 Sciulli Universal Quals Engineering Quals EM Quals Universal Quals Engineering Quals EM Quals Industry Certs Industry Certs Industry Certs Apprentice Positions Journeyman Positions Master Positions Selected Electricians All Electricians
    32. 33. Where to Look Next? To the RIGHT!    
    33. 34. The RIGHT BRAIN Economy “ The Right Brain will rule the future” - Daniel Pink, A Whole New Mind
    34. 35. The RIGHT BRAINED ECONOMY Designing from the Right Side of the Brain: <ul><li>The left brain is necessary but NOT sufficient </li></ul><ul><li>Automation taking over most of the left side roles and jobs </li></ul><ul><li>The rising “ Economy of Abundance ” putting a whole new emphasis on design and in particular on the appeal to the senses such as with “emotional design” </li></ul>
    35. 36. The Ambidextrous Mind <ul><li>LEFT Brain </li></ul><ul><li>Sequential reasoning </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Text </li></ul><ul><li>Numbers </li></ul><ul><li>RIGHT Brain </li></ul><ul><li>Holistic reasoning </li></ul><ul><li>Synthesis </li></ul><ul><li>Pattern recognition </li></ul><ul><li>Context </li></ul><ul><li>Images </li></ul><ul><li>Interpret emotions and non verbal </li></ul>
    36. 37. Whole New Mind: Right brain economy <ul><li>For more info see: </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interview of Daniel Pink by Elliott Masie </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ A Whole New Mind for a Flat World”, article by Richard M. Felder, North Carolina State University </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>See also from Don Norman: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The Design of Everyday Things </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Emotional Design </li></ul></ul></ul>
    37. 38. <ul><li>Blog: </li></ul>
    38. 39. Long Tail <ul><li>“ The future of business is selling less of more” </li></ul><ul><li>The economics of abundance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Creative squandering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Don’t do one thing; do it all, Don’t store some; store it all; don’t sell one piece of content, sell it all </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Market of one is the biggest of all? </li></ul><ul><li>The “getting small” of business: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Combine enough non hits on the Long Tail and you've got a market bigger than the hits! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>&quot;The biggest money is in the smallest sales.“ </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Barnes & Noble carries 130,000 books </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>More than half Amazon sales from OUTSIDE top 130,000 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The market for books not sold in the bookstore is larger than those that are! </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Google makes most of its money from small advertisers </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>eBay the same </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Children today will grow up never knowing the meaning of “out of print” </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    39. 40. Scarcity Abundance With thanks to Chris Anderson see his blog
    40. 41. Anatomy of the Long Tail Courtesy Wired magazine
    41. 42. Courtesy Wired magazine
    42. 43. Long Tail Learning: <ul><li>Extending the spectrum of information students discover </li></ul><ul><li>Finding (rather than searching for) “just the right” content at just the right time and in just the right context </li></ul><ul><li>Deeply contextual </li></ul><ul><li>Imagine having a “Pandora” for all forms of content </li></ul>
    43. 44. Living in a World of Exponential Change Prepare to be humbled! See this podcast and posting on Off Course – On Target for more details, examples, exercises and explanation
    44. 45. Exponential Growth source:
    45. 46. Exponential Growth of Human Lifespan: * Centenarians = people over 100 years old *
    46. 47. The NewOld Workforce <ul><li>What if they don’t retire? </li></ul><ul><li>Retirement redefined </li></ul><ul><li>Recruitment & retention </li></ul><ul><ul><li>of ALL ages </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Experience capture, share & reuse </li></ul>
    47. 48. Oh No!! Suggestions on Some Strategies for Success
    48. 49. So what? Why should YOU care? <ul><li>What is the effect on you as the following (as we know them) become irrelevant: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Software applications (watch widgets) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hardware and most hard goods </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Org charts </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What do the following look like as this happens: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Structured training; courses, lessons, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Courseware </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manuals and docs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hiring & onboarding </li></ul></ul>
    49. 50. Strategic Suggestions: your choice <ul><li>The Future is a Monstrous Mashup </li></ul><ul><li>Embrace the power of UN </li></ul><ul><li>Metadata matters </li></ul>
    50. 51. The Future is a Monstrous & Marvelous M A S H u P ! Wayne Hodgins
    51. 52. Mashups: Current “techie” definitions <ul><li>A mash up is a website or web application that seamlessly combines content from more than one source into an integrated experience. </li></ul><ul><li>Content used in mashups is typically sourced from a third party via a public interface or API . Other methods of sourcing content for mashups include Web feeds (e.g. RSS or Atom ) and JavaScript . </li></ul><ul><li>Many people are experimenting with mashups using eBay, Amazon, Google, Windows Live, and Yahoos APIs. </li></ul><ul><li>Source: </li></ul>
    52. 53. That’s SOOOooooo yesterday Dad! <ul><li>Wayne’s new definition for Mashups: </li></ul><ul><li>A mash up is a unique new assembly of pre-existing “objects”. (usually from more than one source) </li></ul>
    53. 54. Mashups simplified: You already know the model Think Lego blocks!
    54. 55. EVERYTHING becomes a Mashup! <ul><li>Music, TV, video </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Infinite channels </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Content </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wiki, blogs, aggregators, readers, CMS </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Searching/finding </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tag Clouds </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Maps </li></ul><ul><li>Events </li></ul><ul><ul><li>UNconferences </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Competencies, people </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Project based crowdsourcing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Games & Simulations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Alternate reality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>**NOT alternative or virtual realities </li></ul></ul></ul>
    55. 56. Mashups <ul><li>Some assembly required </li></ul><ul><li>Design for DIY/BYO </li></ul><ul><li>Applies to people too! </li></ul>
    56. 57. The Power of “Un” <ul><li>As in UNstructured, UNorganized, Unmanaged </li></ul><ul><li>The formalization of informal learning? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>UN conference </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UN presentation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Pecha Kucha </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UN learning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UN games </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>World Without Oil </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>They lead to infinite and unique solutions!!!! </li></ul>
    57. 58. Metadata Matters <ul><li>Metadata based matrices vs fixed categories </li></ul><ul><li>Automated Metadata Generation </li></ul><ul><li>Attention metadata </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Attention.xml </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Metadata Schemas </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Medbiquitous </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Music Genome Project ( </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Contextual metadata </li></ul>
    58. 59. OK What do we do NOW???
    59. 60. Shift Your Thinking <ul><li>Smaller  Micro </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Size </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Modular (LEGO) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Demographics groups  Unique individuals </li></ul><ul><li>ProSumers  Tearners? </li></ul><ul><li>Left  RIGHT (side of the brain) </li></ul><ul><li>Managed, controlled  UN, emergent </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Plant grass first; pave later </li></ul></ul>
    60. 61. Design for: <ul><li>Mass personalization vs Mass Production </li></ul><ul><li>DIY/BYO assemblies </li></ul><ul><li>Uniqueness </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Categories  metadata </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>STOP stuffing everything and everyone into a box! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Think rePURPOSE vs reUSE </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Infinite scalability </li></ul><ul><li>Capture, tag and publish: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowledge, experience, skills </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Context </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Failures, discards </li></ul></ul><ul><li>FUN: it’s a feature not a bug </li></ul>
    61. 62. Fun is a feature not a bug! <ul><li>The opposite of work isn’t play, </li></ul><ul><li>it’s depression! </li></ul><ul><li>Brian Sutton-Smith, University of Pennsylvania </li></ul>
    62. 63. Flapping vs Flying Innovation not replication!
    63. 64. Innovation not replication! <ul><li>Let’s stop “flapping” </li></ul><ul><li>and replicating past artifacts </li></ul><ul><li>It is NOT about flapping faster!! </li></ul><ul><li>Let’s start thinking </li></ul><ul><li>DIFFERENTLY !! </li></ul>How does this apply to YOU?!
    64. 65. Thank You! For Questions & Comments please contact: [email_address] See “Off Course – On Target” for slides, podcasts, blogs and much more: