Gbr catchment scale modelling, gillian mc closkey
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Gbr catchment scale modelling, gillian mc closkey

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Gbr catchment scale modelling, gillian mc closkey Gbr catchment scale modelling, gillian mc closkey Presentation Transcript

  • Source CatchmentsPaddock to Reef integrated Monitoring and Modelling Program Dr Gillian McCloskey DERM Senior Catchment Modeller
  • Reef WQ TargetsBy 2013, at the end of catchment there will be aminimum:50% Reduction in Nitrogen & Phosphorus50% Reduction in pesticides, and50% late dry season groundcover on dry tropical grazing landBy 2020, at the end of catchment there will be a minimum20% reduction in sediment loads
  • Banti FentieRob EllisCameron DougallLouise HateleyGill McCloskeyHelle Vittinghus
  • Model Key Objectives To assess and report on progress towards meeting Reef Water Quality targets Simulate and quantify impact of current and improved management practises on stream constituents, loads and water quality in the GBR catchmentsModelled load estimates for: •  Pre-European •  Baseline 2008 -2009 •  Annual report cards for 3 yrs
  • Region Size Climate Rainfall Dominant Land Km2 Zone (mm/yr) use Cape York 42,793 Tropical 800 - Grazing 52% 2400 Nature Conservation 46%Wet Tropics 22,000 Tropical 716 – Grazing 46 % 3015 Nature conservation 33 % Sugar 9 % Burdekin 138,245 Dry 649 - Grazing 94 % tropics 1800 Forest and Nature Conservation 2.5 % Sugar cane 1 % Mackay 9021 Dry 600 - Grazing 47 % / tropics 3000 Forest and NatureWhitsundays Conservation 26 % Sugar 19 % Fitzroy 142,000 Dry 526 - Grazing 82 % tropics/ 2065 Forest and Nature Sub Conservation 9.4 % tropics Cropping 6.7 % Burnett/ 51,722 Sub 600-2000 Grazing 78% Mary tropics Forest 15.5 % Cropping 4.3 %Total modelled Area = 361488 km2
  • Model Setup in Source CatchmentsWhole GBR catchment needs to be comparableand as close to real life as possible–  Loads quantifiable – one number–  Same scale and time step: sub catchments and daily–  Functional units: 9 standard, up to 3 regional FU’s–  Storages, Extractions and Inflow as per DERM Water Planning–  Same rules for gauge inclusion; Quality codes and time series
  • Model Setup Whole GBR Catchment and each region• 1 Outlet: All sub catchment with GBRoutlet runs through one outlet node• Landuse in to 11 Functional units• Storages added as Link models,Storage-demand added as nodemodels on the node immediatelydownstream• Water extractions added as nodemodels• Gauges used for calibration from 1970– 2010, sorted by min 10 years data,not downstream of a storage
  • Source Catchment Components Region Number of Sub Size of Sub Number of nodes/ Storages Extractions after catchment catchment in km2 links IQQM Cape York 545 50 546/545 - -Wet Tropics 450 30 451/450 2 2 Burdekin 1564 50 1565/1564 5 10 Mackay 191 30 192/191 9 5/2 /Whitsundays Fitzroy 1600 50 1601/1600 ? ?/? Burnett/ 597 50 598/597 14 22 Mary
  • Hydrology Calibration - PESTPEST – Parameter Estimation ToolGBR Models – size, number of FU’sEach FU has a RR model, & each RR model has manyparameters (SimHyd – 9)CYP example – 545 subcatchments, 10 FU’s, 7 adjustableSimHyd params, 2 routing parameters = 49050Too many parameters! Will affect computing power.
  • Hydrology Calibration - PESTCondense number of FU’s(no. of FU’s x no. of regions x 7 adjustable SimHyd params) + (no. ofregions x 2 flow routing params) = 414 parameters (in Cape York)Objectives: Daily Nash-Sutcliffe of 0.5, Monthly NS of 0.8 and modelledvs measured flows within 10-20%Initial approach – regionalisation regions based on areas with similar rainfall, soil type & geology etcNext approach – one region per gauge
  • •  14 gauges (all three objective functions met)•  3 gauges (two objective functions met)•  1 gauge (one objective function met)
  • Parameterisation 1 Parameterisation 2 Parameterisation 3 Parameterisation 4 Parameterisation 5
  • Hydrology Calibration - PEST
  • End of systemBarron River110001A
  • Picnic Crossinghead waters ofthe Barron110003A
  • Flaggy CreekRainforest110011B
  • Where we are atDynamic SedNet testing: in progressIncorporation of paddock scale modellingoutputsReport due: 30 May. This year.(Dave: how many days is that?)
  • Whats next future