First level circle are problems or challenges – population growth, climate change, environmental damageSecond level circle are drivers – provide water services and meet MDGs, plan for uncertainty, conserve the environment, protect public health
Costs of the business as usual approach are crippling, particularly for developing cities.This figure presents current and projected costs for supplying water in urban areas, showing that costs for developing cities (according to the standard supply-side planning approach) will be 2, 3 or more times current costs.Eg China the South North water diversion project involving transferring water from the Yangtze basin in the south to the Yellow, Huaihe and Haihe river basins in the north. Cost is US $1.2 billion (excluding externalities). Plan responds to water demand forecasting that predicts rapid growth in consumption that isn’t supported by empirical analysis. While Beijing’s population increased by 20% from 1980-2001 water demand remained constant (due to pricing and industrial water saving initiatives).Source: Serageldin 1995 cited in Vairavamoorthy and Mansoor chapter in Butler and Memon (eds) ‘Water Demand Management’ IWA book 2006
By taking stock and questioning how we actually use water now (disaggregating water demand into “end uses” such as toilets and showers), how this varies significantly from city to city and how water usage is likely to change over time (e.g. a move from pour flush to single flush toilets) we can begin to truly understand how to forecast water demand in any given city. Having this clearer vision of how water is and will be used in the future will enable us to determine how to provide water services differently and potentially save water through “conservation potential”.
Per capita domestic water consumption in different countriesContext is critical – need to respond to actual water needs with appropriate supply and demand options in different citiesSource: Memon and Butler chapter in Butler and Memon (eds) ‘Water Demand Management’ IWA book 2006
Supporting and building on current initiatives eg GTZ is doing decentralised san in Can Tho, CTU doing re-use stuffCSIRO AusAID research alliance- integrate any of this with them.
TO REVISE AND MAKE SUCCINCTWater use (end use) focus – a ‘disaggregation’ approach to planning (building from the bottom up, outcomes oriented approach)It’s about working out what’s needed and tailoring solutions to meet that need in the most cost effective and sustainable way
DEVELOPMENT AND URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE: A SUSTAINABILITY PERSPECTIVE THINK. CHANGE. DO STUART WHITE INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES
Pressures and drivers 3 Pressure to achieve MDG water and sanitation targets and ‘water for all’ Uncertainty and threat of water scarcity Need to protect public health Need to conserve the environment
The pressure of increasing costs Source: World Bank World Development Report 1992
A new approach for urban waterNext generation water systems must be… Cost effective Low risk Adaptable Focused on meeting needs - ‘service’ rather than water provision More equitable Environmentally sustainable Protect public health This requires a focus on actual water uses and users - the demand side of water planning and management
New approach is underpinned by ‘end use’ or ‘demand side’ analysis 6 Water end use Demand side planning Conservation potential Disaggregation of water use data Integrated Resources Planning Understanding how we use water now is essential to accurately forecast future water needs in different cities and best plan to meet those needs
The quantity of water used varies greatly between countries 7 Need to respond to actual water needs in different cities with appropriate supply and demand option
The quantity of water used varies greatly between and within countries litres per capita per day Residential (pink), non residential (yellow) and unaccounted for water (light blue) per capita demand comparison (EBMUD is the Oakland area, east of San Francisco)
Not just quantity that differs, also how water is used – eg Alexandria and Sydney
Alexandria residential water use A disaggregated water use analysis (‘end use study’) is the foundation for good supply-demand planning
Level of water/ energy/ materials use per capita Level of water/ energy/ materials use per capita Level of development
Pathways to sustainability Bossell (1998) “Pathways to sustainability”
Then what? The ‘5 Step’ Process as a way forward Step 1: Plan the overall process Step 2: Analyse the situation Demand forecasting Step 3: Develop the response Design & analyse options Step 4: Implement the response Step 5: Monitor, evaluate & review http://www.iwaom.org/
The focus is on cost effective water service provision Forecast water demand more accurately Think differently - ‘water service provision’ not just water supply Design and compare broad selection of options (water efficiency, reuse, supply) Use same $/m3 to compare costs and benefits of all options supplying or saving water We can provide water services differently and potentially save water and money through identifying “conservation potential” 16
Water reuse, energy recovery, nutrient capture
Distributed systems can reduce energy use and capital cost, as well as reduce risk
The economics of generational change Relative cost per household Third Second Fourth First We are here Developing cities have the opportunity to be at the forefront of innovation Generations
Tools for sustainable urban water futures International Demand Management Framework Analysis of costs and benefits and options assessment Social inclusion approaches (poverty, gender) All policy instruments (regulation, economic instruments and communication) Deliberative processes 22
Key messages Current conventional urban water management approaches are unsustainable environmentally and economically. We need to move beyond ‘business as usual’based on increasing water demand and intensive and expensive treatment of wastewater. Best practice approaches emphasise cost effectiveness, adaptability and sustainability – this requires a focus on the demand side of water planning so solutions are right for their context and we can tap into conservation potential. There are a suite of tools to support demand centred planning for sustainable urban water systems – social and regulatory drivers. Developing cities have the opportunity to be at the forefront of innovation – they can ‘leapfrog’ to sustainable options, characterised by efficient water use and adaptive wastewater treatment systems (or waterless waste systems).