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Acedp csiro and wf hc and sy

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  • 1. Overview: CIRO and Water for aHealthy Country FlagshipACEDP Australia-China RoundtableDr Bill Young, Director, Water for a Healthy CountryNational Research Flagship
  • 2. CSIRO today: a snapshot Australia’s national science agency One of the largest & most diverse in the world 6500+ staff over 55 locations Ranked in top 1% in 14 research fields 20+ spin-off companies in six years160+ active licences of CSIRO innovationBuilding national prosperity and wellbeing 2 | CSIRO. Australian Science, Australias Future
  • 3. CSIRO operates primarily in the $32bn Australian R&D market • 3
  • 4. Our strategy – growing our impact Delivering on National Challenges Exploring New Horizons Conducting Science with Impact Harnessing One-CSIRO Building our People and Science Excellence4 | CSIRO. Australian Science, Australias Future
  • 5. CSIRO international engagement 2008-09 • Canada (9) - 38• USA (1) - 268 • UK (5) - 54 • France (4) - 56 • Japan (6) - 49 • China (3) - 88 • Hong Kong (8) - 39 • India (7) - 43 •  • Malaysia (10) - 33• Co-authored scientific publications: • >200 Publications • 50-200 Publications • Other collaborative activities (top 10 countries): • 10-50 Publications • >200 Collaborative activities • NZ (2) - 117 • <10 Publications • 50-200 Collaborative activities • No Publications • 10-50 Collaborative activities CSIRO International Strategy 2007-2011 Page 5
  • 6. National Research Flagships Climate Light Sustainable Adaptation Metals Agriculture Water for Energy Minerals a Healthy Transformed Down Under Country Food Preventative Wealth Futures Health from Oceans Future Manufacturing6 | CSIRO. Australian Science, Australias Future
  • 7. Water for a Healthy Country Flagship Water for a Healthy Country To provide water managers with options that meet water needs to 2030, creating $1 billion per annum of net economic benefit, while maintaining or improving the condition of aquatic ecosystemsEstablish research investments that: •  Address a significant unmet need with an adoption partner •  Are large, to accommodate a research portfolio approach •  Are long-lived, to provide a secure platform that allows for new ideas to be developed •  Build new partnerships with other research institutions to provide necessary skills
  • 8. Water for a Healthy Country Flagship To provide Australia with solutions for water resource management, creating economic gains of $3 billion per annum by 2030, while protecting or restoring our major water ecosystems Integrated Water Healthy Water Urban Water Regional Water Information Systems Ecosystems Stream 1 Stream 1 Stream 1 Stream 1 Integrated Water Systems Water Informatics Environmental Water Water in a Changing Climate Analysis Stream 2 Stream 2 Stream 2 Stream 2 Water Resources Assessment Irrigation, Economics andRecycling and Diversified Supply Catchment and Aquatic Health and Accounting Environment Stream 3 Stream 3 Stream 3 Stream 3 Groundwater Characterisation Advanced Treatment Water Forecasting and Prediction Environmental Contaminants and Management Stream 4 Stream 4 Urban Water Environments Water in Northern Australia Stream 5 Stream 5 Distributed Systems River System Modelling Stream 6Sustainable Asset Management Stream 7 Intelligent Networks
  • 9. The largest water research venture in Australia
  • 10. CSIRO Sustainable Yields Projects Murray-Darling Basin Northern Australia South-West Western Australia Tasmania
  • 11. Annual rainfall and inflow into Perth damsRunoff is affected by climate and other factors • 16% reduction • 55% • Historical reduction • Rece nt• CSIRO South-West Western Australia Sustainable Yields Project – Overview
  • 12. Projected changes in rainfall and runoff by2030 in four SY regions The data for SWWA do not include the 10-15% reduction in rainfall and 55% reduction in runoff that occurred between 1975 and 2008
  • 13. MDBSY – Climate scenarios•  15 GCMs (IPCC AR4), 3 global warming levels (high, medium, low) •  45 variants for climate assessment and rainfall-runoff modelling •  For each region, select 3 based on modelled mean annual runoff •  2nd wettest for high warming •  2nd driest for high warming •  Median for medium warming•  Uncertainty in 2030 hydrology is dominated by differences amongst GCMs not differences between warming levels•  Explore water availability, flow regime and water sharing impacts of these 3 variants
  • 14. Example – Murray region
  • 15. River model linkages
  • 16. Surface water availability across the MDB Current surface water availability Median climate change impact on future water availability
  • 17. Impact of climate change on water availabilityMedian impact is an 11 percent reduction in water availability (~2500 GL/year)
  • 18. Impact sharing for median 2030 climate
  • 19. Major floodplain wetlands
  • 20. Changes in average period between floods
  • 21. Changes in maximum period betweenfloods
  • 22. Implications for Lower Lakes 1.4 1.2 1 Lake Level (m AHD) 0.8 0.6 0.4 Without-development Current 0.2 Without-development (Cmid) Current (Cmid) 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
  • 23. Implications for Lower Lakes
  • 24. Implications for water resourcemanagement and environmental flows•  Regional CC projections remain uncertain meaning water resource planning must consider multiple plausible futures in a risk framework.•  Water resource development has doubled the average period between flooding for many wetlands; the additional impact on average flood intervals of even moderate CC could lead to major ecological change.•  Given current impacts even moderate CC would mean maximum periods between floods would be 4x the natural values for many wetlands and ~10x the natural values for some wetlands.•  Under moderate CC the % of months in which the LL are below MSL would double, and would see LL levels drop twice as far below MSL than would otherwise be the case.•  CC means achieving ecological sustainability will require greater reductions in water use in the MDB than would otherwise be the case.
  • 25. Thank youBill.Young@csiro.auDirector, Water for a Healthy Country Flagship