Many people do not realise that the Australian Football results are quite different to UK andEuropean results. There are subtle patterns which can only be identified by digging deeply into the results and performance statistics. The smart punter can use this information to help pick the most likely away bets.
Strange Patterns Now, analysis shows that there are a number of strangepatterns of results Teams which lose at home are then much more likelyto win away on their next match than would be the case in Europe Thisbounceback effect is quite noticeable Win/Draw/Lose Runs Runs ofwins, draws and losses tend to be longer than in the UK
As I write this article, the following form is evident: Western AustraliaPremier Division, Joondalup, last 4 matches DDDD Western AustraliaDivision 1, SW Phoenix, last 4 matches WWWW Western AustraliaDivision 1, Queens Park, last 4 matches LLLL South Australia StateLeague, Northern District, last 4 matches WWWW Tasmania NorthPremier League, Burnie, last 4 matches LLLL Tasmania North PremierLeague, Launceston, last 4 matches LLLL There are several otherexamples on this coupon The reasons for this are mainly due to the factthat the range of performance difference within a given league is massive Playing standards of the leading teams in a league are way beyondthose of the lower teams In a given match, you might see a team ofperformance rating 200 playing a team rated at 7
This is clearly going to be one sided How Does this Help Us with AwayBets? We check the form ratings of the teams and can immediatelyidentify a couple of dozen matches as going to be one sided, and maybea dozen of these which are likely to be Aways We check these for HomeLoss in last match/Away match next - these are a good indicator ofAways We then look more closely at the remaining matches and identifyfurther Home Loss last match/Away match next teams, and if theopposition is not far ahead in terms of performance rating (in which casethey would be in our previous list above), then mark these as likelyAways
These are lower probability Aways The Bookies Know This Obviously,the bookies are aware of these quirks and that is why the poolscompanies look for more Aways on Australian coupons In the UKcoupons, the pools companies offer a 4 Aways pool, but for Australianfootball they have been looking for more Away matches
How Do We Cover This? One way is to take the fixed odds betting andplace say an Any six aways from 10 bet with a bookie This is in fact 210separate bets - and not all bookies will do this Taking say 7 from 10reduces this to 120 bets, or 8 from 10 gives 45 bets
Also, the minimum stake a bookie will take is obviously a big factor in theoverall cost Finally To make all this work, you have to have access to asolid performance rating system so that you can reliably narrow downyour list of likely Away win matches