Climate change and Australian Farming Systems
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Climate change and Australian Farming Systems

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Peter Hayman speaking at the Mannum Community Science Forum

Peter Hayman speaking at the Mannum Community Science Forum

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Climate change and Australian Farming Systems Climate change and Australian Farming Systems Presentation Transcript

  • South Australian Murray Darling Basin NRM Board
    Ranges to River NRM - Community Science Forum
     
    Farming Sustainability & Technologies
     
  • Climate change and Australian Farming Systems
    Peter Hayman SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga
  • What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ?
    What can we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ?
  • CSIRO and Bureau of Met March 2010
  • Causes of climate change
    Causes
    Ocean Circulation
    Volcanic eruptions
    Solar variations
    Orbital variations
    Greenhouse gasses
    Feedback
    Clouds, Aerosols, Water vapour, Ice reflectivity, GHG
  • Changes to the atmosphere
    Changes to global climate
    Changes to regional climate
    Impacts on local natural and human systems
    www.stephenschneider.stanford.edu
    Cascading uncertainty
  • Role for agronomy & farming systems
    Changes to the atmosphere
    Emission scenarios
    Changes to global climate
    Global circulation models
    Climate Science
    Changes to regional climate
    Downscaling models
    Role for agronomy and farming sysgtems
    Impact models
    Impacts on local natural and human systems
    www.stephenschneider.stanford.edu
    Cascading uncertainty
  • Ryan et al 2010
  • Nurioopta
    Eden Valley
    N
    Lyndoch
  • Thinking about future climates
    Climate change projections from GCMS
    Temporal analogues
    – eg drought
    Spatial analogues – study a warmer & drier site
    Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline
  • Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or change; cycle or shift.
  • April to October rainfall
  • Sep 2000
  • Sep 2002
  • Sep 2006
  • Howden et al 2010