Vision 20/20 Presentation to The New American Colleges & Universities By George Dehne  President GDA Integrated Services
<ul><li>The freshman of 2020 is a first grader today. </li></ul><ul><li>“ The likelihood that something will happen can be...
High School Drop Outs <ul><li>High school graduation rate had fallen steadily from  82.9% in 1980 </li></ul><ul><li>to 77....
Enrollment Shifts <ul><li>At some point, probably just after 2020, minority students will outnumber whites on college camp...
Adult Learners <ul><li>20% growth between 1990 and 2007 in the total number of working adults who participated in adult-ed...
Who Attends College <ul><li>Percentage attending college by household income: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>91% highest-income gro...
Willingness to Pay <ul><li>“ Perhaps more serious for middle-tier colleges, studies show that higher-income families are l...
Undergraduate Degree Completion <ul><li>Complete a bachelor’s degree within 6 years: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>59% White  ...
International Students <ul><li>Global demand for international higher education will grow from 2.17 million students in 20...
International Students <ul><li>49% of international students are from five nations of origin—India, China, South Korea, Ja...
Why College? <ul><li>“ Only 39 percent of the jobs in the 10 fastest-growing occupations through 2016 will require a colle...
<ul><li>The Top-Paying Jobs That Don't Require a Degree  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Air traffic controller  $102,030 </li></ul>...
Reality <ul><li>Most of the higher-paying, career-oriented jobs increasingly require a college degree as a means of entry ...
Working in Off-Campus Jobs <ul><li>50% of students at community colleges expect to work more than 20 hours per week.  </li...
For Profits <ul><li>By 2020 for-profit colleges will be educating 15% of all college students…  </li></ul><ul><li>… compar...
For Profits <ul><li>37% of students at for-profit colleges are minorities. </li></ul><ul><li>50% are the first generation ...
Growth in Master’s Degrees <ul><li>Between 2007 and 2018 the number of master's degrees is projected to … </li></ul><ul><u...
Master’s in Management <ul><li>7 of 10 one-year full-time MBA programs had 21% increase in applications over 2008. </li></...
Rise of the Specialized Master’s Degree <ul><li>A shifting employment market may mean the best jobs would require speciali...
Online <ul><li>In 2008, nearly 25% of college students in the United States—some 4 million—took an online course. </li></u...
Online Learning <ul><li>Projection </li></ul><ul><li>Colleges that have resisted putting some of their courses online will...
Technology <ul><li>In 2000, there were 2.6 million broadband households in the US, one out of every 40 homes.  </li></ul><...
Speculations on Technology <ul><li>Courses will be delivered via mobile devices: </li></ul><ul><li>Public   Private </li><...
Collaborative   Spaces <ul><li>Creating collaborative, creative spaces across the campus for students, faculty and staff t...
Bundling <ul><li>Bundling is the notion that students could cobble together a curriculum that includes courses designed an...
Projection <ul><li>25 years from now, technology might allow students to learn 24/7… </li></ul><ul><li>and go to a college...
The Good News <ul><li>&quot;The socialization of human beings requires them to be in physical contact for at least X numbe...
 
 
iPad <ul><li>The iPad has the potential to fundamentally change how students attend college. </li></ul><ul><li>Students ho...
The Digital Textbook <ul><li>Allow students to do the following: </li></ul><ul><li>•  Personalize the book with electronic...
The Five Shifts <ul><li>Age cohorts to individual learners </li></ul><ul><li>Textbooks to digital content </li></ul><ul><l...
Old New Faculty: lecture Faculty: projects Faculty responsible for content, media, assessment Faculty work as part of inst...
Going Green <ul><li>In the United States alone, buildings account for:  </li></ul><ul><li>72% of electricity consumption <...
Marketing <ul><li>2009 consumers spend 34% of their media time online:  </li></ul><ul><li>As a result, digital marketing s...
THANK YOU! George Dehne  President GDA Integrated Services [email_address]
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George Dehne, Vision 20:20

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Higher ed consultant George Dehne gave this presentation on Friday, June 18, 2010 at Wagner College at a program organized by the New American Colleges & Universities.

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George Dehne, Vision 20:20

  1. 1. Vision 20/20 Presentation to The New American Colleges & Universities By George Dehne President GDA Integrated Services
  2. 2. <ul><li>The freshman of 2020 is a first grader today. </li></ul><ul><li>“ The likelihood that something will happen can be plausibly estimated by how often it occurred in the past.” </li></ul><ul><li>Thomas Bayes, 1760 </li></ul>
  3. 3. High School Drop Outs <ul><li>High school graduation rate had fallen steadily from 82.9% in 1980 </li></ul><ul><li>to 77.5% in 2000, the latest statistics available. </li></ul><ul><li>In 2005, the graduation rate was… </li></ul><ul><li>69% African-Americans </li></ul><ul><li>72% Hispanic </li></ul><ul><li>80% Whites </li></ul><ul><li>In 2008, 1.23 million public high-school students failed to graduate with a diploma... </li></ul><ul><li>… 6,829 lost per day. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Enrollment Shifts <ul><li>At some point, probably just after 2020, minority students will outnumber whites on college campuses for the first time. </li></ul><ul><li>From 2007 to 2016, the population of college students ages </li></ul><ul><li> 18 to 24 will increase by 11% </li></ul><ul><li> 25 to 34 will increase by 27% </li></ul>
  5. 5. Adult Learners <ul><li>20% growth between 1990 and 2007 in the total number of working adults who participated in adult-education courses </li></ul><ul><li>18% growth projected between 2007 and 2016 in the number of adult learners </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics </li></ul>
  6. 6. Who Attends College <ul><li>Percentage attending college by household income: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>91% highest-income group (more than $100,000) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>78% middle-income families ($50,001 to $100,000) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>52% lowest-income families ($20,000 or less) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>National Center for Education Statistics </li></ul>
  7. 7. Willingness to Pay <ul><li>“ Perhaps more serious for middle-tier colleges, studies show that higher-income families are less likely to pay a premium for a second-tier or lower college.” </li></ul><ul><li>Chronicle of Higher Education </li></ul>
  8. 8. Undergraduate Degree Completion <ul><li>Complete a bachelor’s degree within 6 years: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>59% White </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>47% Hispanics </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>41% African-Americans </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>39% American Indian </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>U.S. ranks 15 th of 29 nations in college completion </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. International Students <ul><li>Global demand for international higher education will grow from 2.17 million students in 2005 to 3.72 million in 2025. </li></ul><ul><li>Represents growth of 71% in 20 years, </li></ul><ul><li>Or compound growth of 2.7% per year. </li></ul>
  10. 10. International Students <ul><li>49% of international students are from five nations of origin—India, China, South Korea, Japan, and Canada… </li></ul><ul><li>… or a total of 308,000. </li></ul><ul><li>97,452, or 32% are attending American universities as undergraduates, </li></ul><ul><li>165,582, or 54% were graduate students. </li></ul>
  11. 11. Why College? <ul><li>“ Only 39 percent of the jobs in the 10 fastest-growing occupations through 2016 will require a college degree.” </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bureau of Labor Statistics </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  12. 12. <ul><li>The Top-Paying Jobs That Don't Require a Degree </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Air traffic controller $102,030 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Storage and distribution manager $66,600 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transportation manager $66,600 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Police and detectives supervisor $64,430 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Non-retail sales manager $59,300 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forest fire fighting and prevention supervisor $58,920 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Municipal fire fighting and prevention supervisor $58,902 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Real estate broker $58,720 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Elevator installers and repairer $58,710 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sales representative $58,580 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dental hygienist $58,350 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Radiation therapist $57,700 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nuclear medicine technologist $56,450 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Child support, missing persons and unemployment insurance fraud investigator $53,900 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Criminal investigators and special agent $53,990 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Immigration and Customs inspector $53,990 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Police detective $53,990 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Police identification and records officer $53,990 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commercial pilot $53,870 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Talent director $52,840 </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. Reality <ul><li>Most of the higher-paying, career-oriented jobs increasingly require a college degree as a means of entry or advancement. </li></ul><ul><li>Projection </li></ul><ul><li>But impatience over how slowly colleges are changing is perhaps higher than ever as well. </li></ul>
  14. 14. Working in Off-Campus Jobs <ul><li>50% of students at community colleges expect to work more than 20 hours per week. </li></ul><ul><li>26% of students at private four-year institutions expect to work more than 20 hours per week. </li></ul><ul><li>17% of students at public four-year institutions expect to work more than 20 hours per week. </li></ul><ul><li> Noel-Levitz </li></ul>
  15. 15. For Profits <ul><li>By 2020 for-profit colleges will be educating 15% of all college students… </li></ul><ul><li>… compared with the 7% that they educate now. </li></ul><ul><li>Career College Association </li></ul>
  16. 16. For Profits <ul><li>37% of students at for-profit colleges are minorities. </li></ul><ul><li>50% are the first generation in their families to attend college. </li></ul><ul><li>More than 50% of dependent career-college students report household income of less than $40,000. </li></ul><ul><li>• More than 75% of the students are employed. </li></ul><ul><li>Roughly 30% of operating budget goes to marketing. </li></ul>
  17. 17. Growth in Master’s Degrees <ul><li>Between 2007 and 2018 the number of master's degrees is projected to … </li></ul><ul><ul><li>increase 28 percent overall; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>increase 23 percent for men; and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>increase 31 percent for women. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Nearly twice as many master’s degrees were awarded in 2008 than in 1980. </li></ul>
  18. 18. Master’s in Management <ul><li>7 of 10 one-year full-time MBA programs had 21% increase in applications over 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>2 of 3 flexible MBA programs had a 14% increase in applications over 2008. </li></ul>
  19. 19. Rise of the Specialized Master’s Degree <ul><li>A shifting employment market may mean the best jobs would require specialized training </li></ul><ul><li>and </li></ul><ul><li>A realization in university circles that master’s programs could be wildly profitable. </li></ul>
  20. 20. Online <ul><li>In 2008, nearly 25% of college students in the United States—some 4 million—took an online course. </li></ul><ul><li>2 out of 3 were from the college in which they were enrolled. </li></ul><ul><li>In 2007-2008, more than 2 out of 3 school districts had at least one student who was taking an online course. </li></ul><ul><li>Sloan Consortium </li></ul>
  21. 21. Online Learning <ul><li>Projection </li></ul><ul><li>Colleges that have resisted putting some of their courses online will almost certainly have to expand their online programs quickly. </li></ul>
  22. 22. Technology <ul><li>In 2000, there were 2.6 million broadband households in the US, one out of every 40 homes. </li></ul><ul><li>Now there are 80 million or two-thirds of the population. </li></ul><ul><li>Starting from zero, digital video recorders reached 31 million homes. </li></ul><ul><li>HDTV reached 51 million in this decade. </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile phones subscriptions are now 270 million, out of 307 million U.S. adults. </li></ul>
  23. 23. Speculations on Technology <ul><li>Courses will be delivered via mobile devices: </li></ul><ul><li>Public Private </li></ul><ul><li>Very likely 25% 9% </li></ul><ul><li>Likely 38% 45% </li></ul><ul><li>Somewhat likely 29% 33% </li></ul><ul><li>Not likely 7% 13% </li></ul><ul><li>Virtual simulations will complement equipment-based labs: </li></ul><ul><li>Public Private </li></ul><ul><li>Very likely 33% 36% </li></ul><ul><li>Likely 49% 32% </li></ul><ul><li>Somewhat likely 15% 22% </li></ul><ul><li>Not likely 3% 11% </li></ul>
  24. 24. Collaborative Spaces <ul><li>Creating collaborative, creative spaces across the campus for students, faculty and staff to gather: </li></ul><ul><li>Public Private </li></ul><ul><li>High priority 44% 56% </li></ul><ul><li>Medium priority 36% 37% </li></ul><ul><li>Low priority 19% 7% </li></ul>
  25. 25. Bundling <ul><li>Bundling is the notion that students could cobble together a curriculum that includes courses designed and delivered by a variety of different institutions—including for-profit ones. </li></ul><ul><li>Projection </li></ul><ul><li>The logic of digital technology will compel institutions to specialize and collaborate, find economies of scale and avoid duplications. </li></ul>
  26. 26. Projection <ul><li>25 years from now, technology might allow students to learn 24/7… </li></ul><ul><li>and go to a college building only once or twice a week. </li></ul>
  27. 27. The Good News <ul><li>&quot;The socialization of human beings requires them to be in physical contact for at least X number of hours per week.&quot; </li></ul><ul><li> Futurist Joel Barker </li></ul>
  28. 30. iPad <ul><li>The iPad has the potential to fundamentally change how students attend college. </li></ul><ul><li>Students hope that devices like the iPad will reduce the number of textbooks needed by students. </li></ul><ul><li>Students also hope the iPad will make other common academic necessities available all in one place—PDF files, PowerPoint presentations, online components like Blackboard. </li></ul>
  29. 31. The Digital Textbook <ul><li>Allow students to do the following: </li></ul><ul><li>• Personalize the book with electronic highlights and notes </li></ul><ul><li>• Take quizzes and tests on their own </li></ul><ul><li>• Include links to real-time data or the expertise of an online tutor </li></ul><ul><li>• Link to PowerPoint presentations of class lectures </li></ul><ul><li>• Explore concepts through games or simulations </li></ul><ul><li>• Watch video clips about topics they are studying </li></ul>
  30. 32. The Five Shifts <ul><li>Age cohorts to individual learners </li></ul><ul><li>Textbooks to digital content </li></ul><ul><li>Sequential to adaptive </li></ul><ul><li>Annual tests to instant feedback </li></ul><ul><li>Institutions to networks </li></ul>
  31. 33. Old New Faculty: lecture Faculty: projects Faculty responsible for content, media, assessment Faculty work as part of instructional team Faculty role = actor Faculty role = director Student role = empty vessel Student role = knowledge creator Semster/tri-mester/quarter Varying time for learning modules Set enrollments Continuous Institutions act independently Institutions act with partners Degrees based on credit hours Based on competency exams Information transfer via classrooms Info transfer anytime, anywhere Libraries: stacks Libraries: Starbucks
  32. 34. Going Green <ul><li>In the United States alone, buildings account for: </li></ul><ul><li>72% of electricity consumption </li></ul><ul><li>39% of energy use </li></ul><ul><li>38% of all carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions </li></ul><ul><li>40% of raw materials use </li></ul><ul><li>30% of waste output </li></ul><ul><li>14% of potable water consumption </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. Green Building Council </li></ul>
  33. 35. Marketing <ul><li>2009 consumers spend 34% of their media time online: </li></ul><ul><li>As a result, digital marketing spending has gone from $6.2 billion in 1999 to $25.6 billion or 12% of all marketing spending. </li></ul><ul><li>But marketers still spend most of their energy and dollars on TV, newspapers and radio. </li></ul>
  34. 36. THANK YOU! George Dehne President GDA Integrated Services [email_address]
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