5 aprile 2013: 2052 Scenari globali per i prossimi quarant'anni

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Una importante opportunità per incontrare Jorgen Randers, uno degli autori dello storico volume “I limiti dello sviluppo”, che nel 1972 mise per la prima volta in discussione il mito della crescita …

Una importante opportunità per incontrare Jorgen Randers, uno degli autori dello storico volume “I limiti dello sviluppo”, che nel 1972 mise per la prima volta in discussione il mito della crescita continua aprendo il dibattito internazionale sullo sviluppo sostenibile.

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  • 1. 2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Launch of the Italian translationJ Randers 1 Rome, April 4th, 2013
  • 2. 12 scenarios for the 21st century NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOLJ Randers 2
  • 3. Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis 3: Industrial output 5: Nonrenewable resources 1 2 3 1 5 2: Food output 5 4 1: Population 1 2 3 2 1 5 2 5 3 4 4: Pollution level 3 4 40 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year 2100 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004 J Randers 3
  • 4. Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability 5 5: Nonrenewable resources 5 3: Industrial output 3 3 1 2 5 1 2 2: Food 5 output 4 1: Population 1 2 3 1 4: Pollution level 2 4 3 40 4 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year 2100 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004 J Randers 4
  • 5. The 3 conclusions of The Limits to Growth1. The planet is small (Resource constraints are likely within 100 years if growth continue)2. Overshoot is likely (Current systems of governance are likely to allow human activity to grow beyond the finite carrying capacity of the planet)3. Once in overshoot, physical contraction is unavoidable (Either managed or by the forces of nature or the market) NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOLJ Randers 5
  • 6. Overshoot in CO2: Emissions = 2xAbsorption 1. Emissions from fossil fuels + 2. Emissions from deforestation - 3. Absorption in oceans - 4. Absorption in forests = 5. Accumulating in the atmosphere NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009 J Randers 6
  • 7. For all numerical data and the forecast model, consult the book website www.2052.info NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOLJ Randers 7
  • 8. The five regions used in the 2052 forecastRegion Population GDP GDP per person 2010 2010 2010 (billion (trillion (1000 people) $ pr year) $ pr person-year)US 0,3 13 41China 1,3 10 7OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6ROW (3) 2,1 8 4Sum world 6,9 67 10 (1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 8
  • 9. World population will peak in 2040Gpersons % / yr10 5,0 Population 8 (←scale) 4,0 6 3,0 4 Birth rate 2,0 (scale →) 2 1,0 Death rate g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1 0 0,0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 9
  • 10. World GDP growth will slow downG$ / yr 10,000$ / person-yr Gp150 6,0 6.0120 4,8 4.8 Population aged 15 to 65 (scale → →) 90 World GDP 3,6 3.6 (←scale) 60 2,4 2.4 Gross labor 30 productivity 1,2 1.2 (scale →) g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3a 0 0,0 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 10
  • 11. Global consumption will stagnate% G$ / yr40 150 World GDP32 (scale →) 120 Investment share in GDP24 (←scale) 90 Consumption16 (scale →) 60 8 30 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 4 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption – World 1970 to 2050 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 11
  • 12. Energy use will peak in 2040 G$Gtoe / yr toe / M$ / yr20 300 300 World energy use16 (←scale) 240 240 Energy intensity = Energy use12 per unit of GDP 180 180 (scale →) 8 120 120 World GDP (scale →→) 4 60 60 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6 0 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 12
  • 13. Fossil fuel use will peak around 2030Gtoe / yr6,55,2 Coal use3,9 Oil use2,6 Gas use Renewable energy use1,3 Nuclear use g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 80,0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 13
  • 14. World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030GtCO2 / yr tCO2 / toe Gtoe/yr50 5 25 CO2 emissions40 Climate intensity (←scale) 4 20 = CO2 per unit of energy30 (scale →) 3 1520 2 10 Energy use (scale →→)10 1 5 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 9 0 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050. NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 14
  • 15. Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052ppm deg C m500 2,5 1.5400 CO2 in atmosphere 2,0 1.2 (←scale) Temperature rise (scale →)300 1,5 0.9200 1,0 0.6 Sea level rise (scale →→)100 0,5 0.3 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10 0 0,0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 15
  • 16. Food will satisfy demand – but not needGt / yr Gha t/ha-yr12,5 2,0 1010,0 1,6 8 Food production (←scale) 7,5 Cultivated land 1,2 6 (scale →) Gross yield (scale →→) 5,0 0,8 4 2,5 0,4 2 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 11 0,0 0,0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 6-1: Food Production – World 1970 to 2050 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 16
  • 17. Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast ♣ World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 2052 than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis ♣ Consumption will stagnate because world society will have to spend ever more on repair and adaptation ♣ Future will resemble Limits Scenario 2: “Pollution crisis” NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOLJ Randers 17
  • 18. After-tax disposable income – 1970 to 2050 (in 2005 PPP $ per person-year) 40 000 WORLD 35 000 BRISE 30 000 China 25 000 OECD less US 20 000 USA 15 000 RoW Residual 10 000 5 000 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012J Randers 18
  • 19. The root problem: Pervasive short-termism NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL J Randers 19
  • 20. What should have been done? - Globally1. Introduce the 1-child family, first in the rich world – to further slow population growth2. Ban fossil fuels, first in the rich world – to reduce climate gas emissions3. Build a climate-friendly energy system for and in the poor world – to help them avoid cheap coal4. Establish supra-national institutions (e.g. a global central bank for climate-gas-emission rights) - to temper short-termism5. Establish new goals for rich society: Higher wellbeing in a world without growth NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOLJ Randers 20
  • 21. I don’t like what I see! NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL jorgen.randers@bi.no www.2052.infoJ Randers 21