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G.E.T Smart - Smart Renewables: Areva Lawrence Jones
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G.E.T Smart - Smart Renewables: Areva Lawrence Jones

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  • 1. Smart Renewables Lawrence E. Jones Director, Strategy & Special Projects, Worldwide AREVA T&D Inc. WITA May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA 1
  • 2. Focus on: The state of the Smart Renewables Industry in Washington Predictions for the future of the Smart Renewables Industry Business opportunities in the Smart Renewables Industry. 2 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 3. Making the simple complicated is commonplace; making the complicated simple, awesomely simple, that’s creativity. ~ Charles Mingus, jazz musician 3 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 4. OLD EQUATIONS - NEW CONTRAINTS 4 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 5. Understanding the Dynamics of our Time We are living simultaneously living in the ages of: Uncertainty Globalization Complexity Smarts Connectedness Speed Mistrust Interface Attention Deficit 5 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 6. Challenges to Solving Global Crises Rates of Change Technology Business Social Political Time Understanding the Dynamics of Change 6 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 7. Keys to Smart and Intelligence Awareness – Sensing and measurement Communicate (Fast or Slow) – Data, Information, Commands Reaction – Actuate and Respond (Fast or Slow) 7 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 8. Main Problem How to integrate the basic abilities of awareness and reaction into a device or system with minimum cost and complexity, and achieved other goals? 8 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 9. Creating a Smart Energy Ecosystem Increasing the level of intelligence and integration of information, communication, control technologies in every of aspects (Generation, Delivery, and Consumption) of the electricity system 9
  • 10. Enabling Technologies Decision Support Systems Advanced Control Technologies Integrated Communications Sensing, Metering and Measurement Advanced Grid Components 10 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 11. Renewables Energy Resources 11 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 12. Renewable Projects in the Northwest in 1998 Slide courtesy of Rhys Roth, Climate Solutions 12 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 13. Slide courtesy of Rhys Roth, Climate Solutions 13
  • 14. Areva T&D references across the world DENMARK – Energinet Distributed Gen. Management systems UK – Robin Rigg FRANCE – RTE 2 offshore substations & Wind Gen. Control onshore grid connection FRANCE Areva T&D has connected 30% of the French wind farms IRELAND – Segness Dynamic Line Rating FRANCE EDP Horizon Conversion substation and Distributed Gen. grid connection of a 7MW solar PV park GERMANY Offshore substation for the Alpha Ventus wind farm 14 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 15. Examples of AREVA Renewable Projects - Integration with Power Grid Operations Historian Energinet.dk (Denmark) Simulator RTE (France) RE EDP (Portugal & Spain) Mo Generation RE Control Network Eirgrid (Ireland) del & ling Dispatch Security UI Hawaii (USA) RE RE Midwest ISO (USA) Forecast Estimation Plan Points 15 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 16. Predictions the Future - Navigating Uncertainty and Spotting Opportunities As for the future, your task is not to foresee it but to enable it. ~ Antoine de Saint-Exupery, French Aviator 16 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 17. Global Crises – How to Avert the Perfect Storm? Climate Change Economy Energy Food Population Water 17 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 18. Global Crises Present Opportunities Catalyst for Market Transition and Industry Transformation 18 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 19. The World @ Night in 2009 1.6 billion people lack access to electricity More than 1 billion people lack access to clean drinking water 3 billion people live on less than $2 per day 19 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 20. How will the World @ Night look in 20XX? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? How to Meet the Energy Needs of ?? Billion People in a Sustainable Way? 20 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 21. 21 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA 2
  • 22. Meeting a Common Threat – World Leaders Reacted to the Financial Crisis … but what about Climate Change? 22 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 23. International Race to a Low Carbon Economy USA China & & Canada India Low Carbon Economy EU “If they invest in 21st – century technologies and we invest in 20th – century technologies, they will win.” David Sandowlow, Assistant Sec. for Policy & International Affairs, US Department of Energy. (Washington Post, Oct. 25, 2009 Note: Several other countries have embarked on Smart Grid Initiatives, e.g. Australia, Brazil, New Zealand 23 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 24. Global Investment in Renewable 2004 - 2008 24 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 25. Renewable Power Capacities, Developing World, EU and Top Six Countries in 2008 25 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 26. 26 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 27. 27 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 28. 28 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 29. Energy Trivia Who Said this to Henry Ford whose popular cars were driving up the demand for gasoline “I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that?” 29 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 30. 1931 – Today is May 6, 2010 30 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 31. Solar PV - Existing World Capacity, 1995 - 2008 31 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 32. Wind Power - Existing World Capacity, 1996 - 2008 32 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 33. Policy Matters – The Danish Experience Denmark - 1980 Denmark – today 2025 Danish Government target : 50 % of gross energy consumption to be supplied from renewable sources 33 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 34. World Wind Energy in 2008 - Increasing Growth Rates - Position Country Total Added Growth Position Total Total Total 2008 Installed Capacity Rate in 2007 Installed Installed Installed Capacity 2008 [MW] 2008 Capacity Capacity Capacity 2008 [MW] [%] 2007 2006 2005 [MW] [MW] [MW] 1 USA 25170 8351,2 49,7 2 16818,8 11603 9149 2 Germany 23903,8 1655,4 7.4 1 22247,4 20622 18427,5 3 Spain 16704,3 1595,2 10,5 3 15145 11630 10027,9 4 China 12210 6298 106,5 5 5912 2599 1266 5 India 9587 1737 22,1 4 7850 6270 4430 6 Italy 3736 1009,9 37 7 2726,1 2123,4 1718,3 7 France 34044 949 38,7 8 2455 1567 752,2 8 United Kingdom 3287,9 898,9 37,6 9 2389 1962,9 1353 9 Denmark 3160 35 1,1 6 3125 3136 3128 10 Portugal 2862 7320 34,4 10 2130 1716 1022 11 Canada 2369 5230 28,3 11 1846 1460 683 12 The Netherlands 478 4780 27,4 12 1747 1559 1224 13 Japan 352 3520 23 13 1528 1309 1040 14 Australia 676,7 6767 82,8 16 817,3 817,3 579 15 Ireland 439,7 4397 54,6 17 805 746 495,2 Source: World Wind Energy Report, 2008. www.wwindea.org 34 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 35. States Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) WA 15% 2020 MT 15% ND 10% MN 25% VE 20% ME 30% 2000 OR 25% 2015 2015 2025 2017 10% 2017 in 2025 new RE WI 10% SD 10% NH 23.8% 2025 2015 2015 IA MA 15 % 2020 PA 18% NV 20% 105 MW 2020 RI 16 % 2020 2015 UT 20% CO 20% IL 25% WV 25% NY 24 % 2013 CA 20% 2025 2010 2020 KS 20% 2025 2025 VA 15% CT 23 % 2020 2020 MI 10% 2025 2015 NC 12,5% NJ 22,5 % 2021 AZ 15% 2021 NM 20% MD 20% 2022 2025 2020 DC 20% 2020 TX 5,880 MW HI 40% 2015 2030 29 states & DC have RPS 6 states have goals Source: DSIRE January 2010 35 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 36. US Wind Power Installation to date (MW) Source: AWEA Jan 2010 36 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 37. 2009 – A record year for the US Wind Power industry Wind Power installed capacity (MW) In 2009 the U.S. wind industry broke all previous records by installing close to 10,000 megawatts of new generating capacity thanks to the Stimulus Plan. The total installed capacity in the U.S. is now over 35,000 MW In 2009, 38 manufacturing facilities were brought online, announced or expanded. As new turbine orders continue to come in slowly (lack of long-term policy + excess in supply), some manufacturing production is running at significantly decreased levels compared to 2008 37 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 38. Wind Power in Generation Queues (MW) - The Size of this Queue is Indicative of the Future Growth Potential - Washington 5,831 VT Montana North Maine Minnesota 155 2,327 Dakota 1,398 11,493 20,011 NH Oregon 396 9,361 South Idaho Wisconsin Dakota New York 446 Wyoming 908 MA 30,112 Michigan 8,000 RI 7,870 492 Iowa 2,518 347 Nevada Nebraska Penn. 14,569 3,391 NJ 3,913 3,726 IN Ohio 1416 Utah Illinois 8,426 3,683 WV DE 1,052 Colorado 16,284 1,045 VA 450 Kansas California 16,602 13,191 Missouri 820 MD 18,629 810 2,050 Arizona Oklahoma New Mexico 14,677 Arkansas W M 0001 redn U 7,268 14,136 210 0 0 0, 8- W M 0 0 0, 1 WM WM 000,8 revO Texas 63,504 Total 311,155 MW Source: AWEA 38 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 39. Smart Renewables: UNCERTAINTY = OPPORTUNITIES Drive and Execute a Focused Renewable Energy Strategy Climb Up and Shake the Tree of Opportunities 39 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 40. Overview of the Electric System More than 100 years Old – But Not Much has Changed in the Physics and Economics of Operation … Until Now 40 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 41. AC 765kV The grid of today 500kV 345kV 230kV 138kV 13.8kV 13.8kV 13.8kV 400V 400V 400V 41 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 42. Offshore wind farm AC DC 765kV The grid of the = 600kV / 800 kV future? ~ 500kV = Bulk power import using UHVDC = 150kV 150kV 150kV 150kV 345kV = = ~ = 230kV = 138kV = Onshore wind farm 50kV 50kV 13.8kV 13.8kV = 13.8kV ~ = ~ ~ = = = = = = = 10kV 10kV 10kV ~ = = STATCOM = STATCOM = = 400V 500V 400V 500V 400V PHEV Charging station BESS PV Fuel Cell 42 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 43. Understanding the Renewable Energy Landscape Original Original Transmission Transmission Distribution Distribution RE RE RE Asset RE Asset Equipment Equipment RE Operators RE Operators System System System System Customer Customer Developers Developers Owner Owner Manufacturers Manufacturers Operator Operator Operator Operator • Cost • Efficient • ROCE • Reliability • Reliability • Reliability • Green effectiveness regulatory maximization • Controllability • Controllability • Controllability certificates • Reliability and EPC risks • Generation • Supervision • On-line • What-if accounting • Controllability management mix stability scenarios • CO2 • Generation • Sound optimization portfolio calculation • Network emissions decision- • CO2 optimization • Look-ahead planning quota Some making emissions analysis compliance process • Energy • Disaster quota generation • What-if recovery • Energy Key • Cost compliance efficiency accounting scenarios issues effectiveness (certificates) action plans • Network • Energy planning • Energy storage storage / back-up source • DERs 43 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 44. System Issues Related to Renewable Energy Integration Asset Utilization Systems Demand Response & Variability Energy Storage Decision Support Systems Training & Visualization Knowledge Retention System and Data System Controllability Integration & Observability Reliability & Economics 44 Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
  • 45. 45
  • 46. Thank You lawrence.jones@areva-td.com 46 Copyright Lawrence E. Jones, Perth Australia, 2003