20XXLatest developments in the mobility industryRoadWolfgang Müller-PietrallaHead of Future AffairsVolkswagen Group Resear...
Tough environment: More obstacles on the roadComplex and dynamic developments in society, environs, technology and politic...
Moments of awareness: Crisis, accidents, disasters“When systems fail we become temporarily conscious of the extraordinary ...
Underlying systems23.04.2009   K-EFZ   Quelle: Raskin ert al, 2002 4
Back Casting: From the future to the present             Forecast                             Foresight               Mark...
Road mapping as a strategic tool                                                                        PICTURE & VISION O...
Picture of the futureScenarios: possible, probable, desirable                                           t23.04.2009   K-EF...
Our approach: World Scenario CheckSTEEP FACTORSSocietyTechnologyEconomyEcologyPoliticsAnalysis of:220 Future Reports23.04....
Drivers of Change: Key Factors from the WSC 20301. Classes in society and social structure: increase in inequality2. Popul...
In Touch with changing Travelers:Clear developments already visible, partially linkedTravelers got and are getting…       ...
The „Traveler 2020“ is characterized by high and changingdemands – indications already visible15 Trends "Traveler 2020"Rel...
Hybrid Customers with Highly Dynamic Personalities                                                     Bildquelle: Corbis2...
Traveling - diversified
9 brands, 178 models,                     6.3 Million automobils 200823.04.2009   K-EFZ                                 14
Product Portfolio SCANIA             Haulage               Construction        Distribution         Special purpose       ...
Volkswagen’s Powertrain- and Fuel StrategyOur cars use the whole range of available energy sources                        ...
Golf Twindrive: Downsizing and Hybrid Technologies for maximum efficiency Starting with plug-in hybrid vehicles and then b...
Research for the future
Cornerstones of Innovation         Essence           Customer   Timing   Blockbusters   Code23.04.2009         K-EFZ      ...
Driving ideas: Future innovationsAccident-free driving   Custom-made cars   Bio fuel carCar2X                   Mixed real...
THE CONNECTED CAR?yes, in a Connected World23.04.2009   K-EFZ          21
THE CITY CAR?no, but a variety of specific car and mobility concepts                      Interieur Motives Design Award  ...
A question of balance: Engineering of livable cities       Core elements of urban traffic planning                        ...
THE ACCIDENT FREE CAR?perceiving better than humans             close-up range radar   video camera                     ul...
FULLY AUTOMATIC CARS?first not, but with intelligent co-pilot and butler features23.04.2009     K-EFZ
ALTENAUTO?no, but age-based innovations for silver-agers23.04.2009    K-EFZ                              26
THE FULLY ELECTRIC VEHICLE: definitely an alternative!23.04.2009   K-EFZ                                       27
Challenges Electric Vehicles: lifetime, costs, safety and range Weight for 100 km in kg               Gas                B...
From vision to reality: www.volkswagen2028.com  Volkswagen 2028.  Our idea of the  automotive future.23.04.2009           ...
Volkswagen 2028 – „Room“ – When cars and homes converge     A car for the whole family:             Take a minute to consi...
Interview with experts – Mobility ”In my study ’After the car‘ I look at a whole variety of innovations which would produc...
“Now that we can do anything, what will we do?”23.04.2009         K-EFZ                                       32
OUR responsibility is to think BEYOND“If I’d asked them what they wanted, they would have said– a faster horse.” Henry For...
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Wolfgang müller pietralla latest developents ind the mobility industry road-world tourism forum luc

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Wolfgang müller pietralla latest developents ind the mobility industry road-world tourism forum luc

  1. 1. 20XXLatest developments in the mobility industryRoadWolfgang Müller-PietrallaHead of Future AffairsVolkswagen Group Research23.04.2009
  2. 2. Tough environment: More obstacles on the roadComplex and dynamic developments in society, environs, technology and politics.23.04.2009 K-EFZ 2
  3. 3. Moments of awareness: Crisis, accidents, disasters“When systems fail we become temporarily conscious of the extraordinary force and power of design,and the effects that it generates. Every accident provides a brief moment of awareness of real life,what is actually happening, and our dependence on the underlying systems of design.” (Massive Change, Bruce Mau)23.04.2009 K-EFZ 3
  4. 4. Underlying systems23.04.2009 K-EFZ Quelle: Raskin ert al, 2002 4
  5. 5. Back Casting: From the future to the present Forecast Foresight Market research Future research Scenarios & Innovation Translation Visions 200923.04.2009 K-EFZ 5
  6. 6. Road mapping as a strategic tool PICTURE & VISION OF THE FUTURE General conditions G1 G2 Society/ Environment P1 P2 P3 Cycle plan Markets/ Products P4 I1 I2 Innovation management Innovation/ Features I3 I4 T1 T2 T4 T6 Research Projects Technologies T3 T5 Investment / Finances Resources Supply Chain Job profile 2009 2015 t23.04.2009 K-EFZ 6
  7. 7. Picture of the futureScenarios: possible, probable, desirable t23.04.2009 K-EFZ 7
  8. 8. Our approach: World Scenario CheckSTEEP FACTORSSocietyTechnologyEconomyEcologyPoliticsAnalysis of:220 Future Reports23.04.2009 K-EFZ 8
  9. 9. Drivers of Change: Key Factors from the WSC 20301. Classes in society and social structure: increase in inequality2. Population dynamics: low mortality and birth rates = demographic shift, 9bil. 20503. Technological development: information and communication, nano, bio, info, cogno4. Climate change and biodiversity: unexpected dynamics, irreversible5. Energy supply: fossil fuels in the mid-term, regenerative in the long-term6. Availability and price of resources: uncertain and unpredictable7. Environmental and traffic policies: stringent regulations8. Urbanisation: progressing, increased need for infrastructure and new concepts9. Mobility and mobility infrastructure: on the rise, Car2X concepts10. Information society: web 3.0, anytime, anywhere, anydata11. Vehicle technology: conventional and alternative drivetrains, low- and zero emission12. Corporate Social Responsibility: going beyond legal standards, sustainable reporting23.04.2009 K-EFZ 9
  10. 10. In Touch with changing Travelers:Clear developments already visible, partially linkedTravelers got and are getting… … older 1 … more hybrid 2 … more digital 3 The share of the over 60 year olds has been Constant rise of the LC flights, as well as Rising share of travelers, which are reading rising constantly within the last 5 year. changes in travel expenses up on travels online and booking online. Share of the LCC traffic on Changes in travel 17 % 20% 19 % 2 0 % 2 1% 22% 26% 29% the overall traffic in Europe expenses 39% 35% 37% 33% 223 22% 27% 19% 100 118 15% 15% 4% 9% 79 4% 2001 2007 1996 2000 2006 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2001 2003 2005 2007 60 years and older Travels over 3.000€ ø travels expenses Travels under 500€ Information Booking … more Asiatic 4 … more individual 5 … more ecologically aware 6 Travelers form Asia are showing highest Decreasing share of packaged tours Ecological aspects have an increasing impact growth rates: >10% p.a. on purchase decision 19% 10,2 9 8 15% 8 8 33% 13% 7,7 32% 6 2006/ 29% 28% 8% 5 5 2005 20% 4 4 2 2007/ 2006 Going less Going less Preferring Generally by car by plane regional less World Europe Asia/ America Africa Middle 2004 2005 2006 2007 2020 destinations vacation Pacific East tripsSource: Arthur D. Little, Statistisches Bundesamt, F.U.R Reiseanalyse/RA 2007, Official Airline Guide (OAG), UNWTO, IPK International, CN, GfK23.04.2009 K-EFZ 10
  11. 11. The „Traveler 2020“ is characterized by high and changingdemands – indications already visible15 Trends "Traveler 2020"Relaxation 1 Always Online 4 Body Upgrades 7 Convenience 10 Sustainability 13Entspannung und RuheRelaxation and Vernetzung 24h, all die - Medical Tourism Connection rund um Steigende Service- Growing service Verantwortungs-bewusst Responsible purchase – Medizin Tourismusals Gegenpol zumcalmness as antipole Uhr auf the world. Welt. - Wellness around der ganzen erwartung vor und expectations before and getroffene Kaufentschei- decisionshektischen Alltag "Kleiner, schneller, – Wellness während der Reise dungento stressful daily life „Smaller, faster, - Spiritual Self-Discovery during traveling besser,… " better,...“ – Spirituelle SelbstfindungCommunity 2 Cosmo-politics 5 Luxury 8 Learning 11 Virtualization 14Connection with like-Vernetzung mit The world is growing Die Welt wächst zu- Rising demanding- Steigendes An- Learning anytime and Online experiences, Überall und immer lernen Erlebnisse in derminded peopleGleichgesinnten sammen. Relativisation together. Relativierung attitude, exclusivity, spruchsverhalten, anywhere virtual reality as Onlinewelt, Virtual Reality von Distanzen of distances Exklusivität, stärkere stronger differentiation als Substitut für Reisen? replacement of Differenzierung traveling?Extreme Experiences 3 Hybrid-Offers 6 Home-Holidays 9 Individuality 12 Recommendation 15From Materialismus zumVom materialism to Situational, Situationsabhängig, Decreasing travel- Abnehmende Customized products, Maßgeschneiderte Purchase decision KaufentscheidungAktivismus: "Höher,activism: „Higher, heterogene Kunden- heterogeneous Reiseintensität in intensity in saturated Produkte, individu-elle individual processes: zunehmend auf user- increasingly based onschneller, weiter,… "faster, wider,...“ anforderungen customer gesättigten Märkten markets Prozesse – für for customer generated-content user-generated-based requirements Einzelpersonen & segments & basierend, quality reports. Kundensegmente individuals ErlebnisberichteSource: Arthur D. Little23.04.2009 K-EFZ 11
  12. 12. Hybrid Customers with Highly Dynamic Personalities Bildquelle: Corbis23.04.2009 K-EFZ 12
  13. 13. Traveling - diversified
  14. 14. 9 brands, 178 models, 6.3 Million automobils 200823.04.2009 K-EFZ 14
  15. 15. Product Portfolio SCANIA Haulage Construction Distribution Special purpose Network and services Intercity and coach City and intercity Engines23.04.2009 K-EFZ 15
  16. 16. Volkswagen’s Powertrain- and Fuel StrategyOur cars use the whole range of available energy sources Hydrogen Fuel Cell (Renewable) E-Drive Electricity Battery Renewable E-Drive SunFuel® Hybrid DSG® Natural Gas SynFuel TSI® TDI® Diesel Fuel Oil Gasoline / CNG23.04.2009 K-EFZ 16
  17. 17. Golf Twindrive: Downsizing and Hybrid Technologies for maximum efficiency Starting with plug-in hybrid vehicles and then building on this to develop purely electric cars is the right approach. (Dr. M. Penth, Heidelberg Institut for Energy and Environmental Research) 12,7% 2020 (Source Center for Automotive Research)23.04.2009 K-EFZ 17
  18. 18. Research for the future
  19. 19. Cornerstones of Innovation Essence Customer Timing Blockbusters Code23.04.2009 K-EFZ 19
  20. 20. Driving ideas: Future innovationsAccident-free driving Custom-made cars Bio fuel carCar2X Mixed realities TwinDrive23.04.2009 K-EFZ 20
  21. 21. THE CONNECTED CAR?yes, in a Connected World23.04.2009 K-EFZ 21
  22. 22. THE CITY CAR?no, but a variety of specific car and mobility concepts Interieur Motives Design Award Interieur Motives Design Award23.04.2009 K-EFZ 22
  23. 23. A question of balance: Engineering of livable cities Core elements of urban traffic planning scope of duties: OEM scope of duties: state and city Public-transport Good infrastructure for systems which are Lively centers along pedestrians and quicker than the transport corridors bicyclists remaining road traffic Financing of public Services and Continuous transport and transport connections for optimization of vehicle infrastructure through seamless mobility technology different charges Source: Kenworthy, Jeff; Newman, Peter (2007): Greening Urban Transportation. In: Worldwatch Institute (Hg.): State of the World 2007. Our urban future. A Worldwatch Institute report on progress toward a sustainable society. Washington: Earthscan, pp. 66–8523.04.2009 K-EFZ 23
  24. 24. THE ACCIDENT FREE CAR?perceiving better than humans close-up range radar video camera ultrasound rear- camera distant radar interior sensors multibeam laser23.04.2009 K-EFZ 24
  25. 25. FULLY AUTOMATIC CARS?first not, but with intelligent co-pilot and butler features23.04.2009 K-EFZ
  26. 26. ALTENAUTO?no, but age-based innovations for silver-agers23.04.2009 K-EFZ 26
  27. 27. THE FULLY ELECTRIC VEHICLE: definitely an alternative!23.04.2009 K-EFZ 27
  28. 28. Challenges Electric Vehicles: lifetime, costs, safety and range Weight for 100 km in kg Gas Battery 3 kg for 100 km <200 kg for 100 km Range in Km for 1min refueling Gas Battery 800 km in 1 min. 1 km in 1 min.23.04.2009 K-EFZ 28
  29. 29. From vision to reality: www.volkswagen2028.com Volkswagen 2028. Our idea of the automotive future.23.04.2009 K-EFZ 29
  30. 30. Volkswagen 2028 – „Room“ – When cars and homes converge A car for the whole family: Take a minute to consider how much time you spend in your car – and what else you might do with that time. We consider it quite often. Heres our vision Autonomous driving: Mobile devices: wireless of quality time while on the move. the autopilot communication inside the vehicle Navigation 2028: Flexible interiors: your digital companion the car as a natural habitat23.04.2009 K-EFZ 30
  31. 31. Interview with experts – Mobility ”In my study ’After the car‘ I look at a whole variety of innovations which would produce a different sort of personal vehicle system. It would be based on battery-fuelled cars, smaller cars, cars built from lightweight materials, and a replacement of the concept of ownership by the concept of access.“ “Lots of the processes you have got listed here are exactly the ones I think could well produce what I call a de-mobilisation of the world.” Prof. John Urry Mobility and Sociology Research University of Lancaster23.04.2009 K-EFZ 31
  32. 32. “Now that we can do anything, what will we do?”23.04.2009 K-EFZ 32
  33. 33. OUR responsibility is to think BEYOND“If I’d asked them what they wanted, they would have said– a faster horse.” Henry Ford23.04.2009 K-EFZ 33

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