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Wagenseil urs the future of mobility and its impact on tourism world tourism forum 2009

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World Tourism Forum 2009

World Tourism Forum 2009

Published in: Travel, Business

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  • 1. The Future of Mobility and itsImpact on TourismPart 3: Main Developments in Tourism Supply and DemandInstitute of Tourism ITWProf. Urs WagenseilHead of TourismT direct +41 41 228 99 24urs.wagenseil@hslu.chLucerne, 05 April 2012
  • 2. Content1. Results of the study with a focus on supply and demand- Client demand- Destinations- Services2. Conclusions and hypothesesSlide 2, 05 April 2012
  • 3. Analytical framework of the study Presentation Part 3 Framework conditions Individual travel Societal aspects interests and motivesInformation and com- Environmental andmunication technology ecological aspects Tourism Mobility Supply and demand Transport systems Slide 3, 05 April 2012
  • 4. Tourism: Supply and demand 1. Client demand Private Short Trips (1-3 overnight stays) 73% 24% 4% Private 1-day excursions 57% 36% 8% Business Trips (1 day) 39% 40% 21% Business Trips (1-3 overnight stays) 28% 46% 26% Private Short Trips (4 or more overnight 27% 55% 19% stays) Business Trips (4 or more overnight stays) 16% 38% 47% Increased Unchanged DecreasedSlide 4, 05 April 2012
  • 5. Client demand by 2030 – the importance of … Important Not Important 1. … fair travel (ethical and ecological 33% aspects) for personal, private trips will 67% increase. Increase Unchanged Decrease 3% 25% 2. … environmentally friendly means of transport will increase significantly. 72% Increase Unchanged Decrease 2% 3. … travel time (door-to-door) when 32% choosing a means of transport will 66% increase sharply. Slide 5, 05 April 2012
  • 6. Client demand: Conclusions 1- there will be enormous pressure from private travelers on the transportation industry to improve its ecological balance.- public transport systems will need to improve in their connectivity…- … and expand their networks in order to take travelers from their door to the destination.Slide 6, 05 April 2012
  • 7. Client demand by 2030 – the importance of … 4. … intercultural experiences and broadening one’s horizons and knowledge are expected to improve. Knowledge gain 45% 46% 9% Learning / Increase Broadening horizons 47% 45% 7% Unchanged Dicrease Intercultural experiences 46% 45% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Slide 7, 05 April 2012
  • 8. Client demand by 2030 – the importance of … 5. … time for one’s self, for the partner and the family will gain significantly in relevance. time for the partner and 50% 42% 8% family Increase Unchanged Dicrease Time for ones self 59% 35% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Slide 8, 05 April 2012
  • 9. Client demand: Conclusions 2- Tour operators and suppliers in general need to review and improve their services / packages to fulfill these manifold requirements.- The transport industry / companies (airlines, trains) must work hard to expand their core service of providing “transport from A to B” by introducing elements such as “education”, and reducing transport time aspects by offering e.g. “mobile internet”, “individual on-board learning programmes”, “culture while travelling” …- The transport industry must expand its services: the traditional categories of first class, second class, business class … needs to be expanded by target group categories: family class (sectors), family trains (for example, the Swiss Federal Railways), family planes?Slide 9, 05 April 2012
  • 10. Airline Airport Lounges …Slide
  • 11. Do we see a difference? Is this a comfortable “office” for business people on the early morning flight from Liverpool to London or from Dallas to Houston?Slide
  • 12. Train Business Class …Slide
  • 13. Family holiday end after 2 weeks on the Canary Islands or flying home from Greece …Slide
  • 14. Supply and demand 2. Destinations Holiday Trips - Regional 62% 31% 7% Holiday Trips - Asia 57% 26% 17% Holiday Trips - Europe 52% 41% 7% Holiday Trips - Major Cities, Conurbations 43% 45% 12% Holiday Trips - Africa 39% 34% 28% Holiday Trips - Mountains 34% 55% 11% Holiday Trips - South America 33% 42% 26% Holiday Trips - Oceania, Australia 33% 39% 28% Holiday Trips - Long-haul 30% 32% 38% Holiday Trips - North America 29% 51% 20% Holiday Trips - Ocean 27% 61% 12% More frequently Unchanged Less frequentlySlide 14, 05 April 2012
  • 15. 2. Holiday trips / destination types The Ocean 27% 61% 12%Long-haul Destinations 30% 32% 38% Increase Mountains 34% 55% 11% Unchanged Dicrease Major Cities 43% 45% 12% Regional Destinations 62% 31% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Slide 15, 05 April 2012
  • 16. Destinations: Conclusions- Travel demand will increase: private car vs. public transport system! Improved services and service chains in the ground transport industry constitute just one of the success elements derived from strong demand.- The airline industry needs to prove its efficiency and ecological aspects (e.g. with a view to reducing the carbon footprint) in order to compete with high speed ground systems, otherwise the rise in demand for long-haul flights / travel will lag way behind other forms of demand for a destination.Slide 16, 05 April 2012
  • 17. Supply and demand 3. Services 1 Internet-based hotel ratings by clients 86% 12% 2%Live travel information via mobile phone 85% 12% 3% Online travel communicites 84% 14% 2% Personalized travel information 81% 17% 2% Dynamic packaging 79% 20% 1% Privacy zones, lounges 53% 43% 4% Booking trips through travel agencies 5% 23% 73% Importance increases Unchanged Importance decreases Slide 17, 05 April 2012
  • 18. Travel agencies: History and development- "Travel agencies are the navigators in the product jungle and will not die out" (Klaus Laepple, President of the German Travel Agency Association (DRV), 2007) change change 2001 2008 abs. % Numbers of agencies 14235 11046 3189 -22.4 in GermanySlide 18, 05 April 2012
  • 19. Supply and demand 3. Services 2Free-of-charge use of media (internet, print, media, TV) 77% 20% 3% Free-of-charge shuttle services 57% 39% 4% Free-of-charge luggage services 55% 40% 5%Free-of-charge use of fitness and wellness 53% 43% 4% services Free-of-charge use of a car 38% 49% 13% Importance increases Unchanged Importance decreases Slide 19, 05 April 2012
  • 20. 3. Services: Conclusions- Travel budgets are under pressure (business and private travel)- Strong demand for and expectations on additional services- From the demand perspective: FREE OF CHARGE!- All service suppliers will be forced to reduce costs- Tourism suppliers must cooperate with increased intensity in order to offer a wider range of services at a lower cost- Tourists will look for tourism service chainsSlide 20, 05 April 2012
  • 21. Supply and demand Overall conclusions1. The volume of passenger transport will grow2. Financial and time budgets for trips and holidays will decrease3. Passengers needs and expectations on comfort, time efficiency, service quality and giveaways will riseSlide 21, 05 April 2012
  • 22. Supply and demand Overall hypotheses Hypothesis 1: In the future the tourist will express different transport needs; within the service chain the transport industry needs to fulfil new expectations and will become more important. Hypothesis 2: Destinations need to ensure tourism attractions (within an intensive competition), easy accessibility and ideal connections for all kind of transport systems; particularly ambitious fledgling destinations. Hypothesis 3: The public transport must to improve the accessibility of (potential) tourism destinations with short journey times, high availability, dense timetables and raised / customized quality standards.Slide 22, 05 April 2012
  • 23. Thank you for your attention!Slide 23, 05 April 2012