Residential Housing Market Outlook - NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun

Housing Market Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings Washington, D.C. May 12, 2011

U.S. Annual Existing Home Sales… Ready to Breakout?

Monthly Existing Home Sales Tax Credit Impact

Improving Factors for Higher Home Sales
First quarter at 5.1 million annualized pace … if sales can hold at current levels then 4% annual increase in 2011 … without homebuyer tax credit stimulus
The remainder of the year looks to be better
Job Creation
Robust stock market recovery
Real estate net worth stabilizing … dissipating fears of more notable price declines
Rising rents and larger pool of qualified renters
Buyers want distressed properties … at deep discounts
International buyers cashing in on the weakened dollar
Smart money chasing real estate
Potential Huge Positive … Lending opens up
Potential Huge Negative … Washington policy change

Total U.S. Payroll Jobs (1.3 million in the past 12 months) 6.5 million below prior peak In thousands

Alaska Payroll Jobs – Booming

North Dakota Jobs – Outperforms Alaska

Texas Payroll Jobs – Fully Recovered

Kansas Payroll Jobs – No Recovery

Missouri Payroll Jobs – Barely Registering

Most States follow U.S. Payroll Pattern (Modest Job Recovery) In thousands

Weekly Fresh Unemployment Claims… Not Going under 400,000 In thousands

Financial Asset at $50 trillion… Full Recovery Source: Federal Reserve

Residential Real Estate Net Worth… Long way to recover, but not falling Source: Federal Reserve

New Home Price vs. Existing Home Price 30% premium rather than 10-15% normal premium 12 month moving average Existing Home Price New Home Price

CPI Apartment Rent

Home Price vs Rent (index = 100 in 1980)

Qualified Renters who can buy a Median Priced Home 2005 2010 Median Price $219,000 Median Price $173,100 Mortgage Rate 6% Mortgage Rate 5% Down payment 10% Down payment 10% Monthly Payment $1,180 Monthly Payment $840 Qualifying Income $56,600 Qualifying Income $40,300 How many renters have at least this income? 7,700,000 (21% of renters) How many renters have at least this income? 15,000,000 (39% of renters)

Renter Households In million

Distress Sales: 30% to 40% of Transactions Will Remain Significant for Next 2 years

# of Serious Delinquent Mortgages… Mostly Borrowers prior to 2009 (90+ days late or in foreclosure process) In 2010, there were 1.5 million distressed sales… need to wait 2.7 years

One U.S. Dollar gets…

U.S. Home Price after Currency Conversion

Smart Money Buying?
All-cash record high at 35% of all sales
Investors want quick deals
Investors cannot get mortgage
Some do not want to bother with appraisals
Financial asset recovery helping with cash
Hedge against future inflation
Hedge against future housing shortage?
Empty nesters downsizing and using leftover cash for kids’ home?
Upper-end market beginning to move

REALTORS ® ’ Home Value Expectation: Survey of REALTORS ® regarding prices in 12 months Increase or Stable Decrease

Real Estate as Inflation Hedge? (single-family home price in blue vs CPI in red) Good inflation hedge in the past before the housing bubble/bust

U.S. Housing Starts Housing Starts in thousands Long-Term Average

Upside Potential Surprise

Average Credit Score for Loan Origination 15% to 20% Higher Sales Normal 2009 2010 If Fannie 720 761 762 720 Freddie 720 757 758 720 FHA 650 682 698 660

QE2… to keep rates low… are inconsequential if too strict underwriting standards Fannie and Freddie Backed Mortgage Loan Performance Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Fannie Mae Vintage Cumulative Default Rate after 18 months 2002 3.1% 2003 2.5% 2004 4.6% 2005 4.8% 2006 11.6% 2007 28.7% 2008 12.6% 2009 1.2% Freddie Mac Vintage Cumulative Default Rate after 18 months 2002 2.7% 2003 1.2% 2004 2.0% 2005 1.8% 2006 6.0% 2007 22.3% 2008 13.7% 2009 1.1%

Downside Potential Surprise

Washington Policy Change?
Going after the Middle-Class by Republicans
Raise down payment to 20% ???
Despite no taxpayer bailout for FHA and VA program
Going after the Rich by Democrats
Limit mortgage interest deduction for high income and second homes ???
Crush the working class in resort areas (Yacht Tax Impact)
Going after the Rich by Republicans
Lower conforming loan limit ???
Income redistribution from consumers to banks
Going after the Small Business “Tax Cheats” by Democrats
Force massive 1099 paperwork to run a business and hire IRS agents
REPEALED !!! Thank goodness

Current Savings Rate = 6% Takes 9 years to save $20,000 based on average $2,200 per year

Economic Hurdles
Inflation hitting pocketbooks
Gas and Oil … daily reminder
Food and grocery … daily reminder
Huge pool of underemployed … everything is unaffordable even if no inflation
Budget Deficit … no impact now but when?
Consumer confidence … another losing election for incumbents

CPI Inflation and PPI Inflation (% change from one year ago) Prices falling on consumer electronic products : Smartphone1 = $200 to Smartphone2 = $200 is computed as falling prices; even though your wallet did not get any relief

# Unemployed (looking but cannot find job)

Adults in the Labor Force (Rest are not looking for job and officially not included in unemployment rate)

Government Spending and Tax Receipts $ billion

Government Default?

U.S. 10-year Treasury Rate

Consumer Confidence Index (Under 100; incumbents in trouble)

Housing Baseline Outlook
Moderate GDP Expansion 2.5% to 3% in the next 2 years
1.5 to 2 million annual job additions yearly in the next 2 years
Mortgage Rates rising to 5.5% by year-end 2011 and 6% in 2012
Home values – no meaningful change in the national price in the next 2 years
Home sales rise by 7% to 10% in 2011

Presidential Quotes
“ A nation of homeowners is unconquerable.”
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
“ We will preserve the part of the American dream which the mortgage-interest deduction symbolizes.”
Ronald Reagan

Residential Housing Market Outlook - NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun

by Brian Pilon on May 19, 2011

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Residential Housing Market Outlook - NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun — Presentation Transcript