Commercial Market Outlook - NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun
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Commercial Market Outlook - NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun

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Commercial Real Estate Market Outlook...

Commercial Real Estate Market Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®


Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings
Washington, D.C.

May 12, 2011

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  • 1. Commercial Real Estate Market Outlook
    Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
    Chief Economist
    NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
    Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings
    Washington, D.C.
    May 12, 2011
  • 2. Moderate GDP Growth
  • 3. Total Job Gains(in millions from 12 month ago)
  • 4. Jobs: Private vs. Public(index = 1 in 1990)
    1990s Federal Government Job Cuts
  • 5. Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit
  • 6. Federal Government Spending/Revenue
  • 7. Private Sector Construction (Minimal new inventory addition helps vacancy rate to fall)
    Value Put-in-Place in $ million
  • 8. U-Turn in Commercial Sales(for properties valued at $2.5 million or higher)
    RESEARCH
  • 9. REALTORS® Commercial Market Survey
    RESEARCH
  • 10. REALTORS® Commercial Sales Trend
    Modestly Getting Better
    RESEARCH
  • 11. Commercial Debt CMBS Markets
    RESEARCH
  • 12. Commercial Lending
    RESEARCH
  • 13. REALTORS® Commercial Lending Survey
    RESEARCH
  • 14. REALTORS® Commercial Lending Survey
    RESEARCH
  • 15. Commercial Equity Markets
    RESEARCH
  • 16. Commercial Price Index
    RESEARCH
  • 17. Commercial Distress
    RESEARCH
  • 18. REALTOR® Commercial Market Survey on Price
    RESEARCH
  • 19. Cap Rates(Steady Apartment and Swinging Office)
    RESEARCH
  • 20. U.S. Treasury Yields(1% point rise in blended interest rate will mean $2 trillion in extra government outlay over the next 10 years)
  • 21. Office Fundamentals
    RESEARCH
  • 22. Office Rents
    RESEARCH
  • 23. Financial Activity and Professional Business Service Job Gains(in thousands from 12 month ago)
  • 24. Office Vacancies
    RESEARCH
  • 25. Industrial Fundamentals
    RESEARCH
  • 26. Industrial Rents
    RESEARCH
  • 27. Wholesale Inventory Bouncing Back (Value in $ million)
  • 28. Industrial Vacancies
    RESEARCH
  • 29. Retail Fundamentals
    RESEARCH
  • 30. Retail Rents
    RESEARCH
  • 31. Retail Sales Bouncing Back(% change from 12 month ago; excluding autos/parts)
  • 32. Sluggish Retail Sector Job Gains(in thousands from 12 month ago)
  • 33. Retail Vacancies
    RESEARCH
  • 34. Sluggish Wholesale Trade Job Gains(in thousands from 12 month ago)
  • 35. Multifamily Fundamentals
    RESEARCH
  • 36. Multifamily Rents
    RESEARCH
  • 37. Renter Households
    In million
  • 38. Multifamily Vacancies
    RESEARCH
  • 39. Fundamentals
    • Improving economy and job market
    • 40. No overbuilding … increased absorption means falling vacancy
    • 41. Real estate hedge play from inflation
    • 42. But interest rates will be rising
    • 43. Refinancing in 5 years ? … be prepared
    • 44. Higher rents, but not necessarily higher property prices from rising cap rates
  • Economic Forecast
  • 45. Commercial Market Forecast