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  • 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief August 24, 2012 Page 1
  • 2. WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environmentas we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • The Presidential ballot in Wisconsin before and after Paul Ryan is announced as VP nominee. • Registration rates in swing states. • The Presidential ballot in swing states. • Romney’s momentum in traditional democratic states. Page 2
  • 3. Weekly Summary• By adding Paul Ryan to the ticket, the presidential ballot in Wisconsin shifted 4% in Romney’s favor (pg. 8). o In a state that Obama won by 14% in 2008, Romney now leads by 1%.• Democratic registration rates fell in 7 of the 8 swing state that Obama won in 2008 (pg. 9). o This is troubling for Obama because it suggests that Democrats will have a lower turnout in crucial swing states in 2012.• Romney leads Obama in 3 of the 4 key swing states (pg. 10). o Maintaining these ballot advantages will be critical to Romney’s victory in November.• Romney is gaining momentum in key swing states (pg. 11). o In a new Quinnpiac poll, he registered his first lead in Colorado and closed the gap in Nevada to 2%. o In the traditional Democratic state of Pennsylvania, Obama now leads Romney by 6% compared to Obama’s 12% lead in June. Page 3
  • 4. Only 30% of Americans continue to feel as though the nation is on the right track. 2010 Election Direction of the Country100%90%80% 77% 74%70% 66% 64% 64% 66%64% 62% 63% 61% 62%62%63%60% 47%50%40% 29% 29% 31% 31%30% 31% 30% 32%31% 27% 28%27%30% 17% 19%20%10% 0% May-12 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Feb-10 May-10 Dec-11 Apr-12 Apr-11 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Mar-12 Jun-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Jul-12 Jan-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jul-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Jun-11 Jun-12 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 32% 17% Wrong Track 62% 77% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  • 5. Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for 15th consecutive month. Obama Job Approval100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 49% 52% 51% 52% 51% 50% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49% 50% 40% 46% 42% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 46% 48% 44% 43% 44% 44% 48% 30% 20% 10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 46% 46% Disapprove 50% 49% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  • 6. The national debt steadily approaches $16 Trillion. $15,972,772,894,158 U.S. National Debt $139,914 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,844 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 6
  • 7. Republicans continue to maintain a lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots 100%90% R+7 seats 49% 54% D+29 seats 47% D+37 seats 53% R+69 seats 52% 46% 43% 45%80% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41% 43% 43% 43%40% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41% 43% 41% 41% 42%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
  • 8. By adding Paul Ryan to the ticket, the presidential ballot in Wisconsin shifted 4% in Romney’s favor. In a state that Obama won by 14% in 2008, Romney now leads by 1%. Presidential Ballot in Wisconsin before and after Romney chose Ryan as his Running Mate100%90%80%70%60% 49% 48% 47%50% 46%40%30%20%10% 0% 25-Jul 15-Aug Romney/Ryan Obama/Biden Source: Rasmussen Reports Page 8
  • 9. Democratic registration rates fell in 7 of 8 swing states that Obama won in 2008. This is troubling for Obama because it suggests that democrats will have a lower turnout in 2012. Change in Voter Registration in 8 Swing States from 2008-2012100%80%60%40%20% 5.30%3% 6.40% 0.50% 2.30% 0% -4.90% -0.70% -1.40% -2.30%-0.70% -4.10% -5.10% -0.70% -7.30% -7.40% -5.20% -9.50%-20% -19.70%-40% Colorado Florida Iowa Nevada New New Mexico North Carolina Pennsylvania 8 State Total Hampshire Source: Third Way Republicans Democrats Page 9
  • 10. Romney leads Obama in 3 of the 4 key swing states. Maintaining these ballot advantages will be critical to Romney’s victory in November. Presidential Ballot in Swing States100%90%80%70%60% 49% 48% 48% 47% 47%50% 46% 45% 46% 44% 46%40%30%20%10% 0% Colorado Virginia Ohio Florida 12 State Total* Romney Obama *States include: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Source: Purple Strategies New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Conducted August 13-14 Page 10
  • 11. Romney is gaining momentum in key swing states. In a new Quinnipiac poll, he registered his first lead in Colorado and closed the gap in Nevada to 2%. In the traditional Democratic state of Pennsylvania, Obama leads Romney by 6% compared to Obama’s 12% lead in June. Presidential Ballot in Colorado and Nevada Presidential Ballot in Pennsylvania100% 100%90% 90%80% 80%70% 70%60% 60% 50% 48%50% 45% 45% 47% 50% 44% 41% 41%40% 40% 36% 38% 33% 30%30% 30%20% 20%10% 10% 0% 0% Colorado Nevada Jan-12 Feb-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Romney Obama Romney Obama Sources: Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, and Franklin and Marshall College Page 11
  • 12. Less than 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 53% 60.0% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 30.0% 39% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 12
  • 13. Job creation continues to underperform what is necessary to begin real economic recovery. Jobs Created by Month200,000 163,000 125,000 =150,000 Number of new jobs needed to100,000 87,000 keep pace with 64,000 population growth 50,000 0 May June July National Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% July 2012 6.0% 8.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 13
  • 14. The race between Obama and Romney remains a dead-heat heading into the final three months of the election cycle. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 47%50% 46% 46% 45% 47% 46% 47%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 43% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 14
  • 15. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 15