WPA's Weekly Political Brief v1 1200803

366 views

Published on

Published in: News & Politics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
366
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
29
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

WPA's Weekly Political Brief v1 1200803

  1. 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief August 3, 2012 Page 1
  2. 2. WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environmentas we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • A review of the Texas Senate Primary Runoff. • An analysis of the July jobs report. • A look at the pace of the U.S. economic recovery relative to similar recoveries in other countries. • An examination of the differences between the Obama administration’s GDP forecast and the IMF’s projections. • The amount of taxes owed by each U.S. Olympic medal winner. Page 2
  3. 3. Weekly Summary• The Texas Tea Party flexed its muscle with Ted Cruz’s win over establishment candidate David Dewhurst in the Texas Senate Primary Runoff (pg. 8).• While it is encouraging that the number of jobs created in July increased, 163,000 new jobs is meager relative to what is needed to improve the economy (pg. 10). o The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% in July, which is the 42nd consecutive month of unemployment higher than 8%. o If the labor force participation rate was as high as when Obama took office, today’s unemployment rate would be 11.0%.• The U.S. recovery is the weakest recovery among countries that have suffered similar types of recessions (pg. 11).• The Obama Administration’s GDP growth forecasts differ from the IMF’s projections (pg. 12). o The difference between the two forecasts is $1.5 trillion, the size of the South Korean economy.• U.S. Olympians must pay an income tax on the winnings earned for every medal (pg. 14). o After years of hard work and dedication, US Olympians are rewarded for their world class performances with a 35% tax on the prize money for bringing home medals. Page 3
  4. 4. Less than one-third of Americans continue to feel as though the nation is on the right track. Direction of the Country100%90% 77% 74%80%70% 66% 64% 63% 64% 66% 64% 62% 61% 62% 62%60% 47%50% 2010 Election40% 29% 31% 31% 30% 31% 30% 32% 29% 27% 28% 27%30% 17% 19%20%10% 0% Mar-10 May-12 Oct-10 May-11 Feb-10 May-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-10 Dec-10 Jan-12 Apr-10 Jun-10 Mar-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Jul-12 Feb-11 Nov-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Jan-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Jun-11 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 30% 27% Wrong Track 62% 66% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  5. 5. Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for 15th consecutive month. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 52% 49% 51% 51% 50% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 49% 49%50%40% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 47% 46% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 47% 47% Disapprove 49% 50% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  6. 6. The national debt steadily approaches $16 Trillion. $15,934,578,894,158 U.S. National Debt $139,686 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,735 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 6
  7. 7. Republicans have held a lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot for over 5 months. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41% 43% 43%40% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41% 43% 41% 41%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
  8. 8. WPA client Ted Cruz won a resounding victory over David Dewhurst in the Texas Senate Primary Runoff. WPA models accurately predicted the margin of victory and the total turnout. Final Results of the Texas Senate Primary Runoff100% Total Turnout of Texas Senate Primary90% Runoff 1.2 1.11 1.0380% 1 0.8 0.670% 0.4 0.260% 57% 0 Turnout WPA Predicted50% Turnout 43%40%30%20% 15% 14%10% 0% Ted Cruz David Dewhurst Margin WPA Predicted Margin Source: Texas Secretary of State Page 8
  9. 9. Only 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 53% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 30.0% 40% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 9
  10. 10. While it is encouraging that the number of jobs created in July increased, 163,000 new jobs is meager relative to what is needed for real economic recovery. The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% in July, which is the 42 nd consecutive month of unemployment higher than 8%. If the labor force participation was as high as when Obama took office, today’s unemployment rate would be 11.0%. Jobs Created by Month200,000 163,000 125,000 =150,000 Number of new jobs needed to100,000 87,000 keep pace with 64,000 population growth 50,000 0 May June July National Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% July 2012 6.0% 8.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 10
  11. 11. The US recovery is the weakest in the world. Since 1970 Japan, Sweden, andFinland all experienced a recession and a financial crisis. Yet the US has the slowestrecovery among these countries with similar economic downturns. Source: JPMorgan and the American Enterprise Institute Page 11
  12. 12. The Obama administration’s GDP growth forecasts differ from the IMF’s projections. This difference over 5 years is $1.5 trillion, which is the size of the South Korean economy. US GDP Growth Forecasts for Next 5 Years5% 4.1% 4.0%4% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3%3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0%2%1%0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Obama GDP Growth Forecast IMF GDP Growth Forecast Source: The American Enterprise Institute Page 12
  13. 13. The race between Obama and Romney remains a dead-heat heading into the final three months of the election cycle. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 49%50% 47% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 46%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 43% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 13
  14. 14. U.S. Olympians must pay an income tax on their winnings for every medal. After years of hard work and dedication, U.S. Olympians are rewarded for their world class performances with a 35% tax. Taxes owed for each Medal earned$10,000 $8,986 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,385 $5,000 $4,000 $3,502 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Gold Silver Bronze Source: Americans for Tax Reform Page 14
  15. 15. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 15

×