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WPA's Weekly Political Brief
 

WPA's Weekly Political Brief

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    WPA's Weekly Political Brief WPA's Weekly Political Brief Presentation Transcript

    • WPA’s Weekly Political Brief October 26, 2012 Page 1
    • WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environmentas we head toward Election Day, 2012, we will distribute these weekly data updates every Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we will feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • The illusion of the gender gap. • Presidential Endorsements thus far by the Top 100 American Newspapers. • An overall look at the viewership and winner of the three presidential debates in October. • The boost in Republican enthusiasm in the 2012 election during the month of October. Page 2
    • Weekly Summary• In just one month, Mitt Romney closed a 16-point gap among women with President Obama, and the candidates are now tied among women voters (pg. 11). o A recent AP/GfK poll showed that Romney has taken the lead overall, and is leading the President on a number of key issues. Romney has also improved among women voters concerned about the economy.• The Top-100 American Newspapers have begun their endorsements for President, where Romney is only slightly behind President Obama, 15 endorsements to 17, respectively (pg. 12). o Romney picked up four endorsements from newspapers who endorsed Obama in 2008 and is on pace to significantly outdo John McCain’s endorsement total from 2008.• Following the final Presidential Debate on Monday of this week, Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll to see who voters felt won the debates and how many likely voters watched the debates (pg. 13). o According to the poll, 49% of likely voters felt Romney was the overall victor, while 41% felt Obama was the winner. 63% of likely voters watched all or some of all three debates and only 8% did not watch any of the debates.• With Romney surging in the polls in October, Republican interest and enthusiasm grew by nearly 50% from September (pg. 14). o According to a recent Pew Research Center Study, Republican interest in the election increased from 50% to 73% in October. o Democratic enthusiasm remained at 66% from September to October. Page 3
    • Only 40% of Americans believe that the nation is headed in the right direction. Direction of the Country100%90% 77% 74%80%70% 66% 64% 66% 63% 61% 62% 63%60% 55% 47%50% 2010 Election 40%40% 31% 31% 31% 29% 27% 28% 30% 31%30% 17% 19%20%10% 0% May-11 Apr-11 Mar-11 Jul-11 Apr-12 May-12 Aug-10 Mar-12 Jul-12 Feb-11 Aug-11 Jan-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Jun-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Apr-10 May-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Nov-11 Sep-11 Mar-10 Jul-10 Dec-11 Oct-10 Sep-12 Feb-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Dec-10 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 37% 19% Wrong Track 57% 74% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
    • President Obama’s job approval reached 50% for only the second time this calendar year. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 49% 52% 51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48%48% 49% 50% 49% 49% 49% 50%50%40% 46% 47%47% 48% 47% 46% 48% 48% 47% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46% 47%30%20%10% 0% Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 49% 49% Disapprove 48% 48% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
    • The National Debt now rests at more than $16.2 Trillion. $16,204,837,664,871 U.S. National Debt $141,422 Debt Per Taxpayer$51,502 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org and the CBO Page 6
    • The Generic Congressional Ballot is tied with less than two weeks until Election Day. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats90% 100%80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 45% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41% 43% 43% 43%40% 45% 44% 43% 45% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41% 43% 41% 41% 43%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
    • With less than two weeks until the election, a majority of Americans disapprove of the President’s handling of the economy. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 51% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 46% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 8
    • After the omission of California’s jobless claims was corrected this week, there was a return to around the 18-month average of 388,000 jobless claims reported around the nation. While the drop below 8% unemployment originally seemed like a good sign for the economy, the fixing of California’s error brought back a stern sense of reality. Jobs Created by Month200,000 181,000150,000 142,000 114,000 125,000 = Number of new jobs needed to100,000 keep pace with population growth 50,000 0 July August September National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% 8.0% September 2012 6.0% 7.8% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 9
    • Mitt Romney holds a 1-point lead of President Obama on the Presidential Ballot, continuing his momentum following the Presidential Debates. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60%50% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 48% 49% 47% 48% 48%40% 46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45% 46% 46% 45% 45% 47% 47% 47% 43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 44%30%20%10% 0% Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 10
    • A recent AP/GfK Presidential Tracking poll revealed that President Obama’s advantage among women has been erased in the past month. Women are increasingly moving toward Romney, where he now leads on who is best for the economy and has closed the gap on understanding people’s problems. Presidential Ballot and the Issues100% Womens Opinion on Who is Best for the Economy 100%90% 80% 56%80% 60% 49% 45% 47% 44% 43% 46% 40%70% 40% 45% 20%60% 0% Obama September October 5% 6%50% 8% 6% 7% Undecided Romney Obama Romney40% Womens Opinion on Who Better Understands the30% Peoples Problems 51% 51% 100% 47% 47% 47%20% 80% 58% 60% 50%10% 40% 0% 43% 20% 36% Overall Ballot Better on Better on Better on Among Economy Deficit Protecting 0% Women the September October Nation Romney Obama Source: AP/GfK; Oct. 19-23 Page 11
    • American newspapers are slowly beginning to announce their endorsements for President, where Mitt Romney is staying very close to President Obama, 15 endorsements to 17, respectively. Romney received endorsements from four newspapers who endorsed Obama in 2008. Newspaper Endorsements in 2012 Among Top 100 Total Endorsements in 2008 Newspapers25 80 6320 17 60 1515 4010 26 20 5 0 0 Romney Obama McCain Obama Endorsements from Newspapers Who Endorsed Total Circulation of Endorsements Opposite Party Candidate in 2008 50005 4092 4 40004 3335 Thousands3 30002 2000 1 100010 0 Romney Obama Romney Obama Source: University of California-Santa Barbara Presidency Project Page 12
    • With all three of the Presidential Debates completed, a new Rasmussen poll shows that more Americans felt as though Romney was the overall winner of the debates. The survey also showed that 92% of likely voters watched all or some of at least one of the debates. Who was the Overall Winner of the Likely Voter Viewership of Presidential Presidential Debates Debates100% Watched None of the Debates90% 8% Watched some80% 41% Watched some or all of all 3 or all of 1 63%70% 14%60% Obama 10%50% Undecided Romney40% Watched some or all of 230% 15% 49%20%10% 0% Source: Rasmussen Reports; Oct. 23-24 Page 13
    • In a month characterized by Presidential Debates and Romney’s surge in the polls, Republican interest in the campaign increased drastically in October, while Democratic interest remained stagnant at 66%. The increase could shift the partisan turnout toward the Republicans favor on Election Day. Number of Republicans and Democrats Who Think the Campaign is Interesting100%90%80% 73%70% 66%60% 66%50% 50%40%30%20%10% 0% September October Republicans Democrats Source: Pew Research Center; Oct. 18-21 Page 14
    • For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 15