WPA's Weekly Political Brief

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WPA's Weekly Political Brief

  1. 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief September 7, 2012 Page 1
  2. 2. WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environmentas we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • The increase in regulations during Obama’s first three years in office. • A look at the share of Americans who consider themselves lower class. • Voters’ focus on Obama’s economic record. Page 2
  3. 3. Weekly Summary• Federal regulations increased by 7.4% in the first three years of the Obama administration (pg. 10). o This continuous growth in federal regulations places a burden on small businesses which accounts for Obama’s abysmal economic record.• The share of Americans who consider themselves part of the lower class increased to almost one-third of the population in 2012 (pg. 12). o The lack of jobs has a visible impact on young people, who increasingly consider themselves part of the lower class.• Obama’s economic record continues to be the central issue of the presidential campaign (pg. 13) o This is troublesome for Obama, given his 41% approval rating on the economy. Page 3
  4. 4. The number of American’s believing the nation is headed in the right direction moved up to 37% percent in September. Direction of the Country100%90% 77% 74%80%70% 66% 64% 63% 64% 66%64% 63% 62% 61% 62% 57%60% 47%50% 2010 Election 37%40% 31% 31% 30% 31% 31% 29% 27%29% 28%27% 30%30% 17% 19%20%10% 0% Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Jun-11 Apr-12 Jun-12 Jan-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Feb-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Oct-11 Mar-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Mar-10 Mar-12 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 31% 19% Wrong Track 63% 75% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  5. 5. President Obama’s has a higher approval rating than disapproval rating for this first time since May. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 49% 52% 51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 49% 50% 49% 49% 49%50%40% 47% 46% 47% 47% 48% 47% 46% 48% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46% 47%30%20%10% 0% Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 47% 48% Disapprove 49% 49% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  6. 6. The national debt rose by more than $19 billion in the past week. $16,024,443,124,617 U.S. National Debt $140,160 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,975 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 6
  7. 7. Democrats currently hold a 1-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots 100%90% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43%80% 50%70% 0% 2004 2006 2008 201060%50% 46% 45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41% 43% 43% 44% 45%40% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41% 43% 41% 41% 42% 44%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
  8. 8. A majority of Americans disapprove of the President’s handling of the economy. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 2010 Election 52% 50.0% 40.0% 41% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 8
  9. 9. Job creation in August remained well below pace needed to keep up with population growth in the nation. Jobs Created by Month200,000 125,000 =150,000 141,000 Number of new jobs needed to keep pace with100,000 96,000 population growth 45,000 50,000 0 June July August National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% 8.0% August 2012 6.0% 8.1% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 9
  10. 10. Federal regulations increased by 7.4% in the first three years of the Obama administration. This growth in federal regulations places a burden on small businesses which accounts for Obama’s abysmal economic record. Increase in Federal Regulations during administrations first three years in office Annual Cost of Federal Regulations100% $16 $14.590% $1480% $1270% $1060%50% $840% $630% $420% $2 $1.710% 7.4% 4.4% 0% $- George W. Bush Barack Obama Cost of Regulations Size of the US Economy Source: Office of Management and Budget Page 10
  11. 11. In the week following the Democratic National Convention, President Obama has developed a 3-point lead over Romney. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60%50% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 49%40% 46% 46% 46% 46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45% 43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 44%30%20%10% 0% Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 11
  12. 12. The share of Americans who consider themselves part of the lower class increased to about one-third of the population in 2012. The lack of jobs has a visible impact on young people, who increasingly consider themselves as lower class. Percentage of Americans who consider themselves part of the Lower Class100%90%80%70%60%50% 39% 40%40% 32% 31% 30%30% 25% 25% 23%20%10% 0% All Adults 18-29 Whites Hispanics 2008 2012 Source: Pew Research Center Page 12
  13. 13. Obama’s economic record continues to be the main issue of the presidential campaign. This is troublesome for Obama, given his 41% approval rating on the economy. Major Factor in Americans Vote for President100%90%80% 71%70%60%50% 48%40%30% 20%20%10% 0% Obamas Economic Record Womens Issues Romney Tax Returns Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll Page 13
  14. 14. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 14

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