WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120810

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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120810

  1. 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief August 10, 2012 Page 1
  2. 2. WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environmentas we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • A look at economic confidence levels. • The correlation between GDP growth and incumbent reelection margin. • An example of how ObamaCare will impact businesses. Page 2
  3. 3. Weekly Summary• Economic confidence fell for the second straight month among all Americans (pg. 9). o The modest improvement since the beginning of the year reversed as more Americans begin to hold a pessimistic view of the economy.• The Gallup Economic Confidence Index was negative for all 50 states in the first half of 2012 (pg. 10). o In the 12 states with the highest economic confidence rating, 8 have Republican governors.• There is a strong relationship between GDP growth and the incumbent reelection margin (pg. 12). o Obama’s inability to rejuvenate the economy casts serious doubt on his reelection prospects.• When ObamaCare is implemented in 2014, its heavy burden will weigh upon many individuals and businesses (pg. 14). o The price of a Papa Johns pizza will increase $0.14 due to ObamaCare, which underscores the fact that it is an enormous tax. Page 3
  4. 4. Less than 30% of Americans feel as though the nation is on the right track. Direction of the Country100%90% 77% 74%80%70% 66% 64% 63%64% 66% 65% 62% 64% 61% 62% 62%60% 47%50% 2010 Election40% 31% 31% 30% 31% 29% 27% 29% 28% 27% 30% 32%29%30% 17% 19%20%10% 0% May-10 Apr-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Feb-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Mar-10 Nov-10 May-11 May-12 Jan-10 Feb-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Apr-11 Jun-11 Jun-12 Aug-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 32% 17% Wrong Track 62% 77% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  5. 5. Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for 15th consecutive month. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 49% 52% 51% 52% 51% 50% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49%50%40% 46% 42% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 46% 47% 44% 43% 44% 44% 48%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 46% 46% Disapprove 50% 49% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  6. 6. The national debt steadily approaches $16 Trillion. $15,955,258,894,158 U.S. National Debt $139,815 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,793 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 6
  7. 7. Republicans continue to maintain a lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% 49% seats R+7 47% D+37 54% seats D+2953% seats R+69 seats 52% 45%80% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41% 43% 43% 44%40% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 43% 41% 41% 43% 41%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
  8. 8. Less than 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 53% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 30.0% 39% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 8
  9. 9. Economic confidence fell for the second straight month among all Americans. The modest improvement since the beginning of the year reversed as more Americans hold a pessimistic view of the economy. 2012 Gallup Economic Confidence 2012 Small Business Owners Index Confidence 1 25 23 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul -4 20 17 -9 15 15-14 -17 -19 10-19 -21 -22 -23 5-24 -26 -27-29 0 January April July Source: Gallup Page 9
  10. 10. The Gallup Economic Confidence Index was negative for all 50 states in the first half of 2012. In the 12 states with the highest economic confidence rating, 8 have Republican governors. Top 12 States with the Highest Economic Confidence Rating MN SD MD ND IA HI NE UT VA TX MA WI 0 -2 -4 -6 -6 -8 -8-10 -9 -10 -10-12 -11-14 -14-16 -15 -16 -16 -16-18-20 -19 Source: Gallup Page 10
  11. 11. Job creation continues to underperform what is necessary to begin real economic recovery. Jobs Created by Month200,000 163,000 125,000 =150,000 Number of new jobs needed to100,000 87,000 keep pace with 64,000 population growth 50,000 0 May June July National Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% July 2012 6.0% 8.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 11
  12. 12. There is a strong correlation between GDP growth and the incumbent presidential reelection margin. Obama’s inability to rejuvenate the economy casts serious doubt on his reelection prospects. Correlation between GDP Growth and Incumbent Reelection Margin25% Incumbent Reelection Nixon Margin Correlation = 0.7620% Reagan15% Johnson10% Clinton 5% Obama W. Bush Real GDP Growth in Reelection Year 0% 0 1 Ford 2 3 4 5 6-5% H.W. Bush-10% Carter-15% Source: Center for Politics Page 12
  13. 13. The race between Obama and Romney remains a dead-heat heading into the final three months of the election cycle. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 47%50% 46% 46% 45% 47% 46% 46%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 43% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 13
  14. 14. When Obamacare is implemented in 2014, its heavy burden will weigh upon many individuals and small businesses. In a real world example that surfaced this week, the price of a Papa Johns pizza will increase $0.14 due to Obamacare. $500 billion Tax Increase Price of a Papa Johns Pizza $8.45Tan Tax $8.43 • 10% tax hikeMedicare surtaxes • 3.8% surtax $8.40Consumer penalties • 2014: $285 or 1% of total household income (whichever is greater) • 2015: $975 or 2% of total household income (whichever is greater) • 2016: $2,085 or 2.5% of total household income (whichever is greater) $8.35Flex spending account limits • 2013: Flexible spending accounts capped at $2,500 with limits on what can be bought with themPharmaceutical industry fees $8.30 $8.29 • 2013: $2.8 billion • 2014-2016: $3.0 billion • 2017: $4.0 billion • 2018: $4.1 billion • 2019 and beyond: $2,8 billion $8.25Insurance industry fees • 2014: $8 billion • 2015-2016: $11.3 billion • 2017: $13.9 billion • 2018: $14.3 billion $8.20 Current Price After Obamacare Source: CBS News Page 14
  15. 15. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 15

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