WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120726
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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120726 WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120726 Presentation Transcript

  • WPA’s Weekly Political Brief July 27, 2012 Page 1
  • WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • Obama’s approval among key occupations in the economy • A look at the national gun control debate and its trend over the past 20 years. • Differences in voter enthusiasm among Republicans, Democrats and Adults overall. Page 2
  • Weekly Summary• Obama holds a one-point lead over Romney on the head to head ballot.• Obama has seen his approval rating among business owners drop to 35%, and has a majority disapproval among managers and executives and manufacturing workers (pg. 6). o Some of the nations most important occupations continue to disapprove of the Obama presidency as they feel the effects of the economy.• Following the horrific events in Aurora, CO, the gun control debate was again a major topic in American culture this week (pg. 12) o The trend in American opinion on gun laws is to favor ownership rather than control and previous events such as the Virginia Tech shootings and the Arizona shootings have not had much affect on overall opinion.• Voter enthusiasm is higher among Republicans than Democrats (pg. 13). o A recent Gallup study showed that Republicans are more enthused than Democrats for the upcoming election o Democrat enthusiasm has fallen off significantly since 2004 and 2008.• Republicans are motivated to defeat Barack Obama in November (pg. 14). o Obama’s 10% approval rating among Republicans is the lowest by an opposite party in the modern Presidency. Page 3
  • More than 60% of Americans continue to feel as though the nation is on the wrong track. Direction of the Country100%90% 77% 74%80% 66% 66%70% 62% 64% 63% 64% 64% 61% 62% 62%60% 47%50% 2010 Election40% 31% 31% 30% 31% 30% 32% 29% 27%29% 28%27%30% 17% 19%20%10% 0% Aug-10 Aug-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jul-10 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jul-12 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Mar-10 Mar-11 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 30% 27% Wrong Track 62% 66% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  • Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for 14th consecutive month. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 52% 49% 51% 51% 50% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 49% 49%50%40% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 47% 47% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 46% 47% Disapprove 48% 50% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  • An analysis of Gallup’s nightly tracking from April to July revealed that some of the most important professional fields have a heavy disapproval of Obama’s Presidency. Business owners in particular have soured on the President, down to only 35% in the second quarter.100%90% Obama Approval Among80% 47% Business Owners 51% 52%70% 59% 60%60% 50%50% 6% Disapprove 41% 6% 5% Unsure 40%40% Approve 35% 6%30% 30% 47% 43% 43%20% 35% 20%10% Q1 Q2 Business Owner 0% All workers Manufacturing Manager, Business owner or production executive, or worker official Source: Gallup Nightly Tracking April 1-June 30 Page 6
  • The national debt rose by more than $20 Billion since last week. $15,914,138,522,158 U.S. National Debt $139,559 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,678 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 7
  • Republicans have held a lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot for over 5 months. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41% 43% 43%40% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41% 43% 41% 41%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 8
  • Only 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 53% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 40% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 9
  • Unemployment remains steadily above 8% at the heart of the election cycle. Jobs Created by Month 150000 Number of new jobs needed to 125000 keep pace with population 100000 77000 80000 growth 75000 68000 50000 25000 0 April May June National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% 8.0% June, 2012 6.0% 8.2% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 10
  • The race between Obama and Romney remains a dead-heat heading into the final 3 months of the election cycle. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 47%50% 46% 46% 45% 47% 46%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 44% 44% 45% 43% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 11
  • The debate regarding gun control was reignited this week with tragic shootings that occurred in Aurora, CO. Pew Research Center’s tracking of gun control opinion shows how Americans have shifted in favor of ownership, and that events like Virginia Tech shootings and the Arizona Shootings do not tend to dictate opinion over the long-term. Gun Ownership vs. Gun Control100%90%80%70% 65% 66% 62% 60% 57% 58% 58%60% 55% 54% 55% 57% 50% 49% 49% 49% 48% 49%50% 46% 42% 42% 37% 38% 37% 37%40% 45% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 45% 34% 33% 32% 30% 29% Arizona Shootings30% Virginia Tech Shootings20%10% 0% Right to Own Guns Control Ownership Source: Pew Research Center Page 12
  • Gallup released new numbers examining voter enthusiasm between Republicans, Democrats and Adults overall. Republicans have rebounded after 2008 while Democrats have fallen significantly. Overall enthusiasm for 2012 stands at 44%, down from 2004 and 2008. Voter Enthusiasm Overall Enthusiasm100% 75%90% 64% 65%80% 65% 62% 68% 59%70% 61% 64% 62%60% 51% 55%50%40% 51% 45% 50% 48%30% 39% 35%20% 35%10% 0% 25% 2004 2008 2012 July Aug Sep Oct Republicans Democrats 2004 2008 Source: Gallup Study July 19-22, 2012 Page 13
  • Republicans are motivated to defeat Barack Obama in November. Obama’s 10% approval rating among Republicans is the lowest by an opposite party in the modern Presidency. Democrat Presidential Approval Rating among Republican Presidential Approval Rating Republicans among Democrats100% 100%90% 90%80% 80%70% 70%60% 60% 57%50% 50% 41%40% 40% 34% 29%30% 30% 24% 24%20% 20% 15% 17% 10%10% 10% 0% 0% Obama Clinton Carter Johnson Bush H.W. Bush Reagan Nixon Eisenhower Data collected during re-election years. Gerald Ford data unavailable. Source: Gallup Page 14
  • For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 15