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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120720
 

WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120720

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    WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120720 WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120720 Presentation Transcript

    • WPA’s Weekly Political Brief July 20, 2012 Page 1
    • WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • The relationship between consumer sentiment and presidential elections. • Opinions of Independents in swing states of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. • National opinion of which presidential candidate is trusted on the major issues. Page 2
    • Weekly Summary• Obama holds a one-point lead over Romney on the head to head ballot.• There is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and presidential re- election (pg. 9). o Obama’s re-election prospects appear grim as he finds himself in a similar position as George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter.• 47% of independent voters in swing states view Obama’s presidency as a failure (pg. 12). o Obama’s claim that Romney is out of touch with the economy does not distract these voters from Obama’s poor economic record.• Voters trust that Romney would handle the economy, taxes, the deficit, and illegal immigration better than Obama (pg. 13). o These issues are consistently the most important problems to voters, which suggests that Romney is well positioned for November. Page 3
    • Americans believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction by nearly a 2 to 1 margin. Direction of the Country100%90% 77% 74%80% 66% 66%70% 62% 64% 63% 64% 64% 61% 62% 62%60% 47%50% 2010 Election40% 31% 31% 30% 31% 30% 32% 29%30% 27% 29% 28%27% 17% 19%20%10% 0% Aug-10 Aug-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jul-10 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jul-12 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Mar-10 Mar-11 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 30% 27% Wrong Track 62% 66% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
    • Obama’s job approval remains slightly below 50%. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 51% 52% 49% 51% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 49% 50% 48%50%40% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 47% 46% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 46% 47% Disapprove 48% 50% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
    • The debt per taxpayer continues to approach $140,000. $15,893,504,267,312 U.S. National Debt $139,429 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,620 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 6
    • Republicans continue to lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41% 43% 44%40% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41% 43% 41% 42%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
    • A majority of Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 53% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 30.0% 40% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 8
    • A recent study by AEI found a strong correlation between consumer sentiment and presidential re-election. Obama’s re-election prospects appear grim as he finds himself in a similar position as George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter.65% Percent of Two Party Re-Election Vote Johnson*60% Nixon* Correlation = 0.86 Reagan55% Clinton50% W. Bush Obama H.W. Bush45% Carter40% * = November data University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: October of Re-Election Year35% 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Source: The American Enterprise Institute Page 9
    • Unemployment continues to drive the narrative of the election. The number of new jobs created each month continues to fall short of the 125,000 required to keep pace with population growth. Jobs Created by Month 150000 125000 100000 77000 80000 75000 68000 50000 25000 0 April May June National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% 8.0% June, 2012 6.0% 8.2% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 10
    • Obama’s lead over Romney is down to a single point midway through July. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 47%50% 46% 46% 45% 47% 46%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 44% 44% 45% 43% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 11
    • Independent voters in swing states are crucial to the presidential election. These voters view Obama’s presidency as a failure, particularly his lack of leadership on the economy. Independent Voters in Swing States Economic Performance Presidential Suitability100% 100%90% 90%80% 80%70% 70%60% 60% 49% 47%50% 50% 43% 42%40% 40%30% 30%20% 20%10% 10% 0% 0% Obama is unable to improve Romney couldnt do a better Obama is a failure as president Romney is too out of touch to the economy job improving the economy be president Source: Purple Strategies. Conducted July 9-13 Page 12
    • On a number of key issues, voters believe that Romney would do a better job than Obama. Voters believe that Romney would do a better job on the economy than Obama. Core Issues100%90%80% 38% 36% 41% 43%70%60% 14% 16% 10%50% 10%40%30% 50% 49% 47% 46%20%10% 0% Illegal Immigration Federal Budget Deficit The Economy and Taxes Unemployment Romney Undecided Obama Source: NYT/CBS News Poll Page 13
    • For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 14