WPA’s Weekly Political Brief        July 13, 2012                               Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalen...
Weekly Summary•   Obama holds a two-point lead over Romney on the head to head ballot.•   Mitt Romney and the RNC outraise...
American’s continue to be unhappy with the direction of the country.                                                      ...
Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for the 13th consecutive          month.                          Obama Job Approva...
A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found that more Americans think that                  President Obama’s view on the...
The national debt rose by nearly $40 billion in the past week. $15,873,146,530,892                                        ...
Republicans maintain a two point edge over Democrats on the             generic congressional ballot.                     ...
Obama’s economic approval continues to stay well below 50%.                      Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0%...
Unemployment remains bleak with less than four months until the general election.                                       Jo...
A recent analysis of state unemployment records has shown that states that elected       Republican governors in 2010 have...
Obama has a two-point lead over Romney heading into the middle                     of the summer.                         ...
Since the Romney campaign began fundraising in conjunction with the RNC, he has                       outraised the Obama ...
Despite the Supreme Court ruling on the constitutionality of ObamaCare, the law remains                   unpopular with A...
For additional information about this or any other of our services,                         please feel free to contact:  ...
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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120713

  1. 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief July 13, 2012 Page 1
  2. 2. WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • Presidential election fundraising • Unemployment changes in states who elected Republican and Democratic governors in 2010 • Public opinion President Obama’s views on the role of government • The repeal of ObamaCare Page 2
  3. 3. Weekly Summary• Obama holds a two-point lead over Romney on the head to head ballot.• Mitt Romney and the RNC outraised Barack Obama by $35 million in June. o Romney’s strong showing marked a second straight month of outperforming President Obama. o The Romney campaign has taken in over $180 Million since the end of April.• Republican governors are outdoing their Democratic counterparts with unemployment. o Every state that elected a Republican governor in 2010 has seen their unemployment decline, and by a sharper average than the national and Democratic state average.• Many Americans disagree with the President’s views on the size and role of government. o More Americans feel as though the President Obama’s view on the role of government is a reason to oppose him rather than support him. Page 3
  4. 4. American’s continue to be unhappy with the direction of the country. Direction of the Country100%90%80% 75% 75% 67% 66% 67%70% 61% 62%61% 57% 57% 60% 58% 60%60%50% 2010 Election 36% 34% 34% 35%40% 31% 33% 32% 28% 30%30% 25% 25% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Aug-10 Aug-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jul-10 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jul-12 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Mar-10 Mar-11 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 30% 32% Wrong Track 62% 60% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  5. 5. Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for the 13th consecutive month. Obama Job Approval100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 49% 52% 51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 49% 50% 49% 50% 40% 46% 42% 47% 47% 47% 46% 44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46% 47% 48% 30% 20% 10% 0% Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 47% 47% Disapprove 50% 50% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  6. 6. A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found that more Americans think that President Obama’s view on the size and role of government is a reason to oppose him. This was the case among registered voters, independents and moderates as well. Obamas views on size and role of Government45% 42%40% 39% 37% 35%35%30%25% Reason to Support Oppose20% Not a Major Factor15%10%5%0% All Americans Registered Voters Independents Moderates Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll – Conducted July 5-8, 2012 Page 6
  7. 7. The national debt rose by nearly $40 billion in the past week. $15,873,146,530,892 U.S. National Debt $139,293 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,563 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 7
  8. 8. Republicans maintain a two point edge over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41% 43% 44%40% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41% 43% 41% 42%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 8
  9. 9. Obama’s economic approval continues to stay well below 50%. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 53% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 40% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 9
  10. 10. Unemployment remains bleak with less than four months until the general election. Jobs Created by Month 150000 125000 100000 77000 80000 75000 68000 50000 25000 0 April May June National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% 8.0% June, 2012 6.0% 8.2% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 10
  11. 11. A recent analysis of state unemployment records has shown that states that elected Republican governors in 2010 have outpaced both their Democratic counterparts and the national trend in unemployment change. Unemployment Change in States that held 2010 Gubernatorial Elections-2% -1.4%-1% -1.0% -0.9%0% National GOP Governors Dem Governors Republican and Democrat Source: Examiner Article – July 6, 2012 National Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 11
  12. 12. Obama has a two-point lead over Romney heading into the middle of the summer. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47%50% 46% 46% 45% 47% 46%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 44% 44% 43% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 12
  13. 13. Since the Romney campaign began fundraising in conjunction with the RNC, he has outraised the Obama campaign by over $50 million since May, creating a much more competitive financial race than 2008. 2012 Fundraising to Date $600 $512 $450 $389 Romney Fundraising with RNCIn MIllions $300 $150,000,000 $150 $125,000,000 $106,000,000 $0 $100,000,000 $77,000,000 Romney Obama $75,000,000 2008 Fundraising $77,000,000 $900 $50,000,000 $745 $60,000,000 $750 $25,000,000 $600In Millions $450 $368 $0 May June $300 Romney Obama $150 $0 McCain Obama 2012 Fundraising Source: Reuters July 9, 2012 2008 Fundraising Source: www.fec.gov Page 13
  14. 14. Despite the Supreme Court ruling on the constitutionality of ObamaCare, the law remains unpopular with Americans. A majority continue to favor repeal, which the House voted in favor of this week, and three-quarters of Americans have a favorable opinion of their current healthcare. Opinion on the Repeal of ObamaCare100% Impression of current healthcare90% Unfavorable 22%80% Favorable Unsure 75% 3%70%60% 53%50% 2010 Election40% 41%30%20%10% 0% Mar 23- May 22- Jul 24-25, Sep 24- Nov 28, Jan 29-30, Apr 1-2, June 4-5, Aug 5-6, Nov 11- Mar 17- July 7-8, 24, 2010 23, 2010 2010 25, 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 12, 2011 18, 2012 2012 Favor Repeal Oppose Reveal Repeal Source: Rasmussen Reports – Conducted July 7-8, 2012 Healthcare Impression Source: Fox News, June 24-26 Page 14
  15. 15. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 15
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