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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120705
 

WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120705

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    WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120705 WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120705 Presentation Transcript

    • WPA’s Weekly Political Brief July 6, 2012 Page 1
    • WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • Decline in American manufacturing • The Presidential race in states with heavy manufacturing • The newly released unemployment statistics for June 2012 Page 2
    • Weekly Summary• Obama maintains a slight lead over Romney on the head to head ballot.• June unemployment capped off a disappointing Q2. • Only 80,000 jobs were added and unemployment remained flat at 8.2%. • In the last 56 years no president has been elected with unemployment over 7% except Ronald Reagan.• American manufacturing had an abysmal month in June of 2012 o Despite an overall growth in the economy, the manufacturing industry saw substantial contraction in some of its most important sectors.• Obama’s job approval declines in June o After the month of May, where President Obama had a higher approval rating than disapproval, the President saw his disapproval again creep above 50% nationally. o A new poll released this week shows that nearly half of Americans view the President’s political view as extreme Page 3
    • American’s continue to be unhappy with the direction of the country. Direction of the Country100%90%80% 75% 75% 67% 66% 67%70% 61% 60% 60% 62% 57% 57% 58%60%50% 2010 Election 36% 34% 34% 35%40% 31% 33% 30% 25% 28% 25%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Aug-10 Aug-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jul-10 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 34% 32% Wrong Track 59% 60% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
    • Obama’s job approval has slipped throughout the month of June. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 49% 51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48% 49% 50% 51% 48% 48% 49%50%40% 46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46% 47% 48%30%20%10% 0% Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 46% 49% Disapprove 50% 48% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
    • According to a new Rasmussen Reports poll, 47% of Americans view President Obama’s political views as extreme, compared to just 31% for Mitt Romney. Viewed as Having Extreme Political Views100%90%80%70%60%50% 47%40% 31%30%20%10% 0% Romney Obama Source: Rasmussen Reports; Conducted June 29-30, 2012 Page 6
    • The national debt per taxpayer is climbing toward $140,000. $15,836,330,350,375 U.S. National Debt $139,030 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,410 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 7
    • Republicans hold a slight advantage over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41% 43% 42%40% 45% 44% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41% 43% 41% 40%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 8
    • Obama’s economic approval has remained relatively static since March of 2012. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 54% 53% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 41% 40% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 9
    • June capped off an abysmal quarter for job growth with only 80,000 jobs being added, far less than the 125,000 needed to keep pace with population growth. Jobs Created by Month 150000 125000 100000 77000 80000 75000 68000 50000 25000 0 April May June National Unemployment Rate12.0%10.0% 8.0% June, 2012 6.0% 8.2% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 10
    • Only Ronald Reagan, who had strong third quarter growth, was re-elected in the last 56 years with unemployment over 7% and none have lost with unemployment below 6%. The nation would have to average over 219,000 new jobs per month for unemployment to be below 8% by November, a feat which the economy has shown no signs of accomplishing. Correlation: -0.63 Incumbent President Vote Difference and November National Unemployment Rate 8.0% 1992 1980 1984 7.0% 6.0%National Unemployment Rate 2004 1972 5.0% 1996 1956 1964 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Incumbent President Vote Difference Source: WPA Analysis Page 11
    • Obama maintains a slight edge over Mitt Romney as we enter July. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 47%50% 46% 46% 45% 47%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 44% 44% 43% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 12
    • Many believe that the United States could be heading back into a recession, given developments in manufacturing and private sector growth. In June, Manufacturing experienced one of its worst overall months since January of 2009. Production New Orders100% 100%80% 80% 60% 56% 60%60% 51% 48% 40%40% May June May June Purchasing Managers Index Exports100% 100%80% 80%60% 54% 60% 54% 50% 48%40% 40% May June May June Source: Institute for Supply Management, June 2012 Report on Business Page 13
    • The contraction of manufacturing growth may be contributing to statistically tied races in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina – all states that Obama won in 2008 Heavy Manufacturing States100%90%80% 48% 46% 47% 47% 45%70%60% Obama50% 9% 7% 9% 10% 8% Undecided40% Romney30% 44% 44% 45% 45% 47%20%10% 0% Wisconsin Ohio Michigan Virginia North Carolina Source: Real Clear Politics Page 14
    • While Republicans have lost interest in the Presidential election following the dynamic primary season, they still hold a very favorable view of Mitt Romney Republican Interest in the Presidential Election100% Unfavorable No Opinion Romney Favorability90% 8% 5%80% Never Heard Of70% 1% 60%60% 52%50% Interesting 42% Dull40% 33%30% Favorable 85%20%10% 0% March June Republican Interest Source: Pew Research Center; Conducted June 7-17,2012 Romney Favorability Source: CNN/ORC International Poll; Conducted June 28-July 1, 2012 Page 15
    • For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 16