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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629
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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120629

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  • 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief June 29, 2012 Page 1
  • 2. WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • American opinions of their current healthcare • American worries about the costs of the new law • A review of some of the new penalties, fees, and taxes in the new healthcare law Page 2
  • 3. Weekly Summary• Obama leads Romney slightly on the head to head ballot.• The national deficit has risen to 15.8 trillion dollars and the economic outlook for the next few months is dismal.• Americans have consistently opposed ObamaCare and believe it will increase their personal healthcare costs. o The Supreme Court’s ruling that the individual mandate is a tax will only exacerbate these concerns.• Obama’s economic approval remains low. o Most American’s recognize that for two years during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the president’s primary focus was working to pass the largest tax increase on the middle class in two decades. Page 3
  • 4. American’s continue to be unhappy with the direction of the country. Direction of the Country100%90%80% 75% 75% 67% 66% 67%70% 61% 62% 57% 57% 60% 58% 60%60%50% 2010 Election 36% 34% 34% 35%40% 31% 33% 31% 25% 28% 25%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Aug-10 Aug-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jan-10 Feb-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jun-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 34% 32% Wrong Track 59% 60% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  • 5. Obama’s job approval is slightly higher than it was leading up to the 2010 elections. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70% 2010 Election60% 52% 52% 49% 51% 51% 50% 49% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 48%50%40% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 47% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 47% 49% Disapprove 48% 48% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  • 6. The national debt continues to increase. $15,821,014,256,254 U.S. National Debt $138,942 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,410 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 6
  • 7. The generic congressional ballot is tied. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 44% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41%40% 45% 44% 43% 44% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41% 43%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
  • 8. Obama’s economic approval is very close to where it was during the 2010 elections. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60% 54% 53% 60.0% 52% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 42% 40% 30.0% 41% 31% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 8
  • 9. The disappointing May jobs report was compounded by revisions to earlier reports. April Jobs Report Q1 vs. Q2 Average Jobs Created150,000 250,000 226,000 115,000 200,000100,000 77,000 150,000 100,000 73,000 50,000 50,000 0 0 Old Report Revised Report Average Q1 Jobs/month Average March & April Jobs/Month Jobs created Jobs created National Unemployment Rate 12.0% May, 2012 10.0% 8.2% 8.0% November, 2010 9.8% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 9
  • 10. Obama has a slight edge on the ballot going into the weekend. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47%50% 46% 46% 45% 47%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 44% 43% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 10
  • 11. Most Americans are satisfied with their current healthcare and have opposed ObamaCare since its inception. ObamaCare support Impression of current100% healthcare Unfavorable90% 22% Unsure80% 3%70%60% Favorable 47% 49% 47% 75% 47%50% 46% 45% 46% 45% 46% 41%40% 39% 42% 41% 40%30% 38% 36% 35% 35% 33% 29%20%10% 0% Support Oppose Source: Fox News, June 24-26 Page 11
  • 12. A majority of American’s worry that their actual healthcare costs willincrease as a result of the new law…. Effect of Healthcare Law Lower My Costs 15% Unsure 6% Increase My Costs 52% No Effect 27% Source: CBS NYT, March 21-25 Page 12
  • 13. And they are correct. The new law is one of the largest tax increases in American history, with a host of new penalties, fees, and taxes. $500 billion Tax Increase Also includes:Tan Tax • 10% tax hikeMedicare surtaxes • 3.8% surtaxConsumer penalties • 2014: $285 or 1% of total household income (whichever is greater) • 2015: $975 or 2% of total household income (whichever is greater) • 2016: $2,085 or 2.5% of total household income (whichever is greater)Flex spending account limits • 2013: Flexible spending accounts capped at $2,500 with limits on what can be bought with themPharmaceutical industry fees • 2013: $2.8 billion • 2014-2016: $3.0 billion • 2017: $4.0 billion • 2018: $4.1 billion • 2019 and beyond: $2,8 billionInsurance industry fees • 2014: $8 billion • 2015-2016: $11.3 billion • 2017: $13.9 billion • 2018: $14.3 billion Source: CBS NYT, March 21-25 Page 13
  • 14. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Matt Gammon Vice President Vice President 202.470.6300 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com mgammon@WPAResearch.com Page 14

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