WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120622

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WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120622

  1. 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief June 22, 2012 Page 1
  2. 2. WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • The April jobs report revisions • American opinions on the Supreme Court and Obama’s health care reforms • May fundraising for Republican and Democratic organizations • Opinions on illegal immigration Page 2
  3. 3. Weekly Summary• While Obama and Romney are tied on the ballot and Obama’s job approval remains at 49%, June has been a month of big picture disappointment for the president.• The downward revisions to the April jobs report show that June would need to be a remarkable month to salvage Q2 expectations. o Signs of recovery appear to be few and far between as expectations are ratcheted downward.• Ahead of a landmark Supreme Court decision on the president’s signature legislative accomplishment, pluralities of Americans have a favorable opinion of the Supreme Court and oppose Obama’s health care law.• May was a poor fundraising month for Democrats, as the RNC outpaced the DNC, Romney’s super-PAC outpaced Obama’s in fundraising, and Obama’s campaign went upside down on spending vs. intake.• While Americans are sympathetic to people looking for work, it is clear that they want immigration laws to be respected and enforced. Page 3
  4. 4. Most Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country. Direction of the Country100%90%80% 75% 75% 67% 66% 67%70% 61% 62% 57% 57% 60% 58% 60%60%50% 2010 Election 36% 34% 34% 35%40% 31% 33% 31% 25% 28% 25%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Aug-10 Aug-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jan-10 Feb-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jun-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 34% 32% Wrong Track 59% 60% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  5. 5. Obama’s job approval has been split since December, and has ticked up slightly this week. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70% 2010 Election60% 52% 52% 49% 51% 51% 50% 49% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 48%50%40% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 47% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 49% 49% Disapprove 47% 48% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  6. 6. Each taxpayer’s share of the debt has increased $105 this week. $15,802,067,158,525 U.S. National Debt $138,832 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,358 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 6
  7. 7. The generic congressional ballot is currently tied. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 44% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41%40% 45% 44% 43% 44% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41% 43%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
  8. 8. Obama’s economic approval remains low. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60% 54% 53% 60.0% 52% 50.0% 2010 Election 40.0% 42% 40% 30.0% 41% 31% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 8
  9. 9. Recent revisions to the jobs report show that the economy is slowing down again. April Jobs Report Q1 vs. Q2 Average Jobs Created150,000 250,000 226,000 115,000 200,000100,000 77,000 150,000 100,000 73,000 50,000 50,000 0 0 Old Report Revised Report Average Q1 Jobs/month Average March & April Jobs/Month Jobs created Jobs created National Unemployment Rate 12.0% May, 2012 10.0% 8.2% 8.0% November, 2010 9.8% 6.0% 4.0% June, 17, 2012 Obama’s 100th 2.0% Round of golf 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 9
  10. 10. The presidential ballot remains tied. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47%50% 46% 46% 45% 46%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 45% 45% 46% 43% 43% 44% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 10
  11. 11. Ahead of a landmark Supreme Court decision on health care, pluralities of Americans approve of the Supreme Court and disapprove of the healthcare reform laws. Health Care Reform Support Supreme Court Job Approval100%90%80%70% Disapprove 36%60% Approve 49% 47% 47% 44%50% 45% 46% 41%40% 40%30% 35% 36% 35% 33%20% 29%10% Unsure 0% 20% 1/1/2011 2/1/2011 3/1/2011 4/1/2011 5/1/2011 6/1/2011 7/1/2011 8/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 2/1/2012 3/1/2012 4/1/2012 5/1/2012 6/1/2012 10/1/2011 11/1/2011 12/1/2011 Support Oppose Source: AP-GfK June 14-18 CBS News/New York Times May 31-June 3 Page 11
  12. 12. May was a very good month for Republican funding, and Obama’s campaign expenses outpaced his intake by several million dollars, despite the advantages afforded to an incumbent. May Fundraising (Millions of Dollars)40 Obama Campaign Expenditures35 34.3 50 39.130 025 -50 -44.6 20 Spending Fundraising201510 85 40 RNC DNC Restore Our future (Romney) Priorities USA Action (Obama) Page 12
  13. 13. Recent polling on illegal immigration reveals that the American public has what appear to be conflicting positions on the issue, supporting both Arizona’s law cracking down on illegal immigration and Obama’s Executive Order halting deportation. However….. Obamas Policy Arizonas LawDisagree 30% Disapprove 38% Approve 58% AgreeUnsure 64% 6% Unsure 4% Source: Bloomberg, June 15-18 Pew June 7-17 Page 13
  14. 14. When asked about components of the Arizona law, it is clear that Americans are sympathetic to people looking for work, but want their laws to be respected and enforced. “The Supreme Court recently heard arguments for and against a law passed by the state of Arizona dealing with illegal immigration. As I describe some parts of the law, tell me if you approve or disapprove of each.”100%90% 28%80% 38% 41% 47%70% 3%60% 5% 6%50% 6%40% Disapprove 68%30% 57% Unsure 53% 47%20% Approve10% 0% Allowing police to Requiring people to Allowing police to detain Making it a crime for question anyone who produce documents anyone who cannot anyone in the country they think may be in the verifying their legal verify their legal status illegally to look for or country illegally status if police ask for accept work them Source: United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll May 3-6 Page 14
  15. 15. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Vice President 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 15

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