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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief       June 15, 2012                               Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalen...
Weekly SummaryBarack Obama’s 2008 coalition seems to be showing cracks. African Americanvoters in North Carolina and Jewis...
American opinions on the direction of the country are essentially                  unchanged from a year ago.             ...
Americans have not changed their opinion of Obama significantly                    since December.                        ...
National debt has increased $18,882,473,268 since last week. $15,783,998,125,524                                          ...
The generic congressional ballot is currently tied.                           Generic Congressional Ballot100%            ...
Obama’s economic approval saw a slight dip as recent economic         news indicated no end to a difficult situation.     ...
The May unemployment report was difficult for the president.                        National Unemployment Rate12.0%       ...
The presidential race is tied.                                         Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60%               47% ...
In North Carolina, Obama has lost 15 points from his 2008 total among African                 Americans.                  ...
In New York, Obama has lost a substantial portion of the Jewish vote.                      New York                       ...
Nationally, one in five voters who supported Obama in 2008 are currently undecided                 or voting for Romney. T...
For additional information about this or any other of our services,                         please feel free to contact:  ...
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  1. 1. WPA’s Weekly Political Brief June 15, 2012 Page 1
  2. 2. WPA’s Weekly Political BriefAs part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the politicalenvironment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updatesevery Friday.In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked: • Direction of the Country • Obama Job Approval • National Unemployment • Obama Approval on the Economy • Generic Congressional Ballot • National & per capita debt • Romney vs. ObamaIn addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting andtimely new data from that week. This week we have: • A look at Obama’s 2008 coalition and how it’s holding together in 2012 Page 2
  3. 3. Weekly SummaryBarack Obama’s 2008 coalition seems to be showing cracks. African Americanvoters in North Carolina and Jewish voters in New York are supporting him bysubstantially smaller margins.Nationally, one out of five 2008 Obama supporters is currently undecided orleaning toward Romney. Women, Hispanics, and younger voters are unsure ifthey support the president after four years in office.Overall, while Americans continue to trend negatively on the direction of thecountry and how Obama has handled the economy, they are very divided onpresidential approval, the presidential ballot, and the generic congressionalballot. Page 3
  4. 4. American opinions on the direction of the country are essentially unchanged from a year ago. Direction of the County100%90%80% 75%70% 63% 63% 64% 63% 57%60%50%40% 36% 29% 29% 30% 31%30% 20% 18%20%10% 0% Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Right Direction Wrong Track One Month Ago One Year Ago Right Direction 33% 29% Wrong Track 59% 62% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 4
  5. 5. Americans have not changed their opinion of Obama significantly since December. Obama Job Approval100%90%80%70%60% 52% 52% 49% 51% 51% 50% 48% 49% 49% 48% 48% 48% 49%50%40% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 48% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44%30%20%10% 0% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Approve Disapprove One Week Ago One Month Ago Approve 48% 49% Disapprove 47% 48% Source: Real Clear Politics Page 5
  6. 6. National debt has increased $18,882,473,268 since last week. $15,783,998,125,524 U.S. National Debt$138,727 Debt Per Taxpayer$50,309 Debt Per Citizen Source: USDebtclock.org Page 6
  7. 7. The generic congressional ballot is currently tied. Generic Congressional Ballot100% Previous Election Day Generic Ballots90% 100% R+7 seats D+37 seats D+29 seats R+69 seats80% 49% 47% 54% 53% 52% 45% 46% 43% 50%70% 0%60% 2004 2006 2008 201050% 46% 45% 46% 45% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 41%40% 45% 44% 43% 45% 41% 42% 43% 42% 41% 43%30%20%10% 0% Democrat Republican Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains Page 7
  8. 8. Obama’s economic approval saw a slight dip as recent economic news indicated no end to a difficult situation. Obama Economic Approval100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 52% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 39% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Approve Disapprove Source: Pollster.com Page 8
  9. 9. The May unemployment report was difficult for the president. National Unemployment Rate12.0% May, 201210.0% 8.2% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is unadjusted Page 9
  10. 10. The presidential race is tied. Obama vs. Romney100%90%80%70%60% 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47%50% 46% 46% 45%40% 46% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 43% 43% 43%30%20%10% 0% 1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun Obama Romney Source: Real Clear Politics Page 10
  11. 11. In North Carolina, Obama has lost 15 points from his 2008 total among African Americans. North Carolina 2008 North Carolina African100% American Voters90% McCain 5%80% 46%70%60% 76% Obama50% 6% Undecide40% Romney30% 48% 4%20% Obama 95%10% 20% 0% Overall African American Source: PPP June 12 Page 11
  12. 12. In New York, Obama has lost a substantial portion of the Jewish vote. New York 2008 New York Jewish Voters100%90%80% McCain 51% 30%70% 59%60% Obama50% 5% Undecide40% Romney 6% Undecided Obama 4%30% 66%20% 43% 35%10% 0% Overall Jewish Voters Source: Siena Collage, June 3-6, 2012 Siena College, October 19-21, 2008 Page 12
  13. 13. Nationally, one in five voters who supported Obama in 2008 are currently undecided or voting for Romney. This holds true among key demographics that made up the Obama coalition. 2008 Obama Voters100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30% 19% 20%20% 17% 10% 10%10% 0% Overall 18-34 year olds Women Hispanics African Americans Romney or Undecided Source: American Pulse, June 12 Page 13
  14. 14. For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact: Bryon Allen Chris Wilson Chris Perkins Partner and COO Partner and CEO Partner 202.470.6300 405.286.6500 202.494.3084 E-mail: E-mail: E-mail:BAllen@WPAResearch.com CWilson@WPAResearch.com CPerkins@WPAResearch.com Ryan Steusloff Vice President 202.470.6300 rsteusloff@WPAResearch.com Page 14
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